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Sunday
Jan102010

Iran: Challenge to The Government in "The Heartlands"?

One of the running debates on Enduring America has been the extent of the demand for change across Iran. With most information, because of the nature of media and restrictions on communications, coming out of the capital, it has been hard to guage whether "the countryside" --- which is often framed as more supportive than Tehran of President Ahmadinejad --- will support calls of the opposition.

My own sense, from a series of discussions last week, is that the demands of the Green movement are spreading and growing amongst people outside the capital. Borzou Daragahi of The Los Angeles Times offers the same perspective today:

Mohammad knew he had to be careful in approaching his old classmate Hamed, the one from the conservative Iranian family. They come from a small city, after all, and word gets around.

When they ran into each other last summer in their eastern Iranian hometown of Birjand, the pair hadn't seen each other for nine years.As they caught up on old times, the conversation turned to the country's disputed election in which President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defeated challenger Mir-Hossein Mousavi.

"He believed Ahmadinejad's victory was not fraudulent, and that Mousavi was angry because Iranians didn't vote for him," said Mohammad, a 23-year-old engineering student in Birjand, a provincial capital of 160,000 near the border with Afghanistan. "He also thought that the people who protest are some gangsters and not civilized people."

A clever and highly ambitious young man whose dream until seven months ago was to go abroad, get rich and have drinks by a pool in Miami, Mohammad found himself drawn into political activism after the election -- and trying to recruit friends and acquaintances to join him.

Defying the predictions of some who dismissed it as a phenomenon limited to big cities, the "green" opposition movement appears to have spread to the heartland, with video and credible reports emerging from towns in the provinces.

Activists such as Mohammad are the foot soldiers, discreetly reaching out to people in small, tightknit communities that don't enjoy the anonymity of Tehran.

For months the spotlight has been concentrated on the capital: Not only do international news organizations remain in Tehran, but the constant hubbub in the metropolis of 12 million makes it easier for protesters to head into the streets and then make it home without being identified by security forces.

But in smaller cities such as Birjand, the police, intelligence officers and allied militiamen have a much easier time recognizing protesters.

The activists take enormous risks. Five large military bases guard Birjand, regarded as the springboard for Revolutionary Guard anti-drug operations along the eastern border.

But it also has five universities and four colleges, making it a potential opposition stronghold. More than 60% of Iranians are younger than 30, and 70% of college students reportedly opposed Ahmadinejad.

Immediately after the election results were announced, angry residents took to the streets of Birjand, as they did in cities across the country. Security forces charged the crowds and dragged away alleged ringleaders and a professor, Mohammad-Reza Agha-Ebrahimi.

"So protests were a failure at the beginning," Mohammad said.

But the opposition movement didn't die, thanks largely to activists such as Mohammad, whose last name is not being published for security reasons.

Mohammad and his friends step carefully. They speak with their parents, relatives and friends, and ask them to encourage co-workers at their offices or at the city's tire plant, tile factory, cement plant or soft drink producer to at least have sympathy for a movement led by their sons and daughters.

"We wear green, we act green," Mohammad said. "We express our beliefs in public."

A computer whiz with spiky hair who earns extra cash selling fancy cellphones, he now risks getting kicked out of school and thrown into prison for being an activist.

"If you asked me last year, I would probably say, 'My dream is to go abroad for my master's degree and try for a foreign passport,' " he said. "But now, my only dream is our victory against the dictatorship, and to gain my own freedom."

His account of what has happened over the last seven months in Birjand, corroborated by former and current residents of the city, and consistent with reports from other small cities around the country, illustrates how the opposition movement has gained a foothold nationwide.

In places such as Birjand, universities have led the way. After the election, the Islamic associations on all Birjand campuses began printing political statements distributed by student activists to classmates, cabbies, restaurant employees and fellow bus passengers. Students began organizing small gatherings at their universities. They publicly demanded freedom for the professor, Agha-Ebrahimi.

He was released.

Students spray-painted graffiti on walls. "Death to the dictator!" they scrawled with green markers on phone booths, just as in the capital. Some went to jail. One of Mohammad's friends was sentenced to nine months in prison for distributing leaflets.

In the classrooms, professors lifted students' spirits by discussing the Islamic Republic's missteps, and what sorts of protest actions were effective and which were counterproductive.

One professor spoke to students about the difference between real and superficial freedom.

"He said something like, 'We are free to breathe, but not free to live; and not being free to live, we're dead, actually,' " Mohammad recalled.

The students followed the news on opposition websites and via BBC Persian and Voice of America, which can be picked up more easily in small cities and the countryside than in Tehran, where the government jams international satellite signals.

They learned to avoid having political conversations over the phone or using text messages to organize meetings for fear of the prying eyes of security forces. They have mastered the use of proxy servers to get access to banned websites as well as shield their surfing habits from surveillance technology.

Still, it's an uphill battle to persuade others to risk life and liberty by speaking out.

"They feel that they're not seen," he said. "They're not heard, and whatever they do for justice is going to be like an unheard sound."

At first, in his talks with onetime classmate Hamed, Mohammad acted as if he had no particular stake in the issue of Iran's election battle. But over tea and during walks, he began voicing the points of the opposition.

"I talked to him about people's rights, dictatorship and Islamic fascism," he recalled. "I set him straight about the history of the government's sins after the Islamic Revolution."

Then Mohammad handed Hamed a DVD that showed violent confrontations involving security forces and left him alone. Mohammad said most government supporters are not people who can be convinced simply by talking.

"I let him do his own research," he said. "There are many other people I talked to, but I'm not sure whether they changed or not."

The young people of Birjand looked forward to taking part in street protests Dec. 7, National Students Day. But as one opposition blog put it, the city was in a state of "undeclared martial law" in the hours before the scheduled demonstrations.

"In all of the streets and squares, Basijis and intelligence officers are on alert," the blog reported. "In most of the squares the anti-riot police are stationed and patrols can be seen in all of the side streets."

The demonstrations were foiled.

"Protests like Tehran's are not possible in low-populated cities, as they need a lot of people," Mohammad said.

But in the crowd at one aborted protest he spotted a familiar face. It was his old chum Hamed!

Since their last encounter, Hamed had joined the movement and become active on his campus in Abadan, the southwestern city where he studies.

"I had made him believe from the depth of his heart that these murderers are not at the right side," Mohammad said.

"I found him as green as myself."
Saturday
Jan092010

The Latest from Iran (9 January): Watching Carefully

2225 GMT: More on Khamenei Speech (see 1445 and 1850 GMT). An EA reader who watched the Supreme Leader's address today sends an interesting e-mail, "His speech did not sound aggressive. It sounded more as a request for calm and acting with wisdom after the fallouts of Ashura. It appeared that he was lacking in confidence. Same for the crowd."

2220 GMT: Halting the Mothers of Martyrs. An Iranian activist reports that, during their weekly march in Laleh Park, about 30 of Mothers of Martyrs in the post-election crisis and their supporters were arrested and taken to Vozara detention centre.

2200 GMT: Mortazavi --- Scapegoat or Valued Official? Iran-watchers may want to set aside a few moments for former Tehran prosecutor Saeed Mortazavi, whose future may turn upon the developments in the internal contest amidst conservatives and principlists.

Days after Mortazavi was reportedly named as prime "suspect" in the Parliamentary investigation of the deaths of Kahrizak detainees, he was formally named as President Ahmadinejad's advisor to combating smuggling of drugs and currency.

NEW Latest Iran Video: Sharif University Demonstration (9 January)
Iran: Four Responses to the “Wrong Questions” of the Leveretts (Lucas)
Iran: “What is This Opposition?” Right Answers to Wrong Questions (Shahryar)

The Latest from Iran (8 January): Karroubi Under Attack


Interpretation? Mortazavi is now the proxy in the battle between key conservatives/principlists and Ahmadinejad. The President wants him as a sign of Ahmadinejad's authority and as a firewall to any move by Parliamentary challenges; Ahmadinejad's critics see Mortazavi's downfall as a necessary victory in their battle.

Another marker in the dispute is a statement by a "pro-Government" student organisation criticising Ahmadinejad for the appointments of Mortazavi and for Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, the former First Vice-President --- a few days after his appointment, he was removed from office amidst vehement criticism from the conservatives/principlists  who may be aiming at Mortazavi ---  who is now Ahmadinejad's chief of staff.

2150 GMT: A Release. An EA reader writers that Reza Najafi, an Iranian translator, was released from jail on Thursday. Najafi worked for Caravan Publishing, which is owned by Arash Hejazi, the doctor who tried to save the life of Neda Agha Soltan.

1920 GMT: The Khamenei Manoeuvre (Part 2). This article, from Payvand, should be read in conjunction with the passage of the Supreme Leader's speech offering some rhetorical concession on violence:
Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani has criticized the people who made derogatory remarks about Mohsen Rezaei in regard to his recent letter to the Supreme Leader about Mir-Hossein Mousavi's recent proposals. Larijani made the remarks at a meeting with national police chiefs in Qom on Thursday.

"Rezaei has been a real mujahid (one who struggles in the cause of Islam) and strived wholeheartedly during the (1980-1988) Iran-Iraq war. Naturally, since he has entered the political scene, some of his ideas may be criticized. But why do some political figures question his career as a mujahid?"

"Today, society needs convergence not discord and not steps meant to undermine recognized figures' positions," he added.

It is not too speculative to treat Larijani as a channel for the political views of the Supreme Leader, and this manoevure is a clear call --- "Back Off" --- to those "hard-liners" who have criticised Rezaei for suggesting that a deal may now be struck with Mir Hossein Mousavi.

And there's more. Larijani said, "We should not call anyone who has different views a dissident and a hypocrite. In line with the Supreme Leader's directives, all people should try to create unity in the country to prepare the ground for economic activities, investment, and development."

That passage walks hand-in-hand with this week's declarations by high-profile MP Ali Motahari, on video and in print, calling for some negotiation of views and approaches to get out of the current post-election difficulties.

1850 GMT: Mixed Messages. Borzou Daragahi of The Los Angeles Times picks up on a passage from today's Supreme Leader statement (see 1445 GMT) that may point to some pull-back from all-out confrontation:
Relevant bodies should fully respect the law in dealing with the [post-election] riots and the ongoing events. Those without any legal duty and obligations should not meddle with these affairs, Everyone should hold back from arbitrary acts and everything should go within the framework of the law.

The obvious connection to make is that Khamenei's message is, first and foremost, to the conservative/principlist politicians who have been pressing for some sign of regime concession on the crackdown. That has including Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei's letter and the challenge of member of Parliament Ali Motahari (covered in this week's EA updates).

Doesn't look like this part of Khamenei's message has filtered down through the ranks, however. Brigadier General Mohammad-Reza Naqdi, the head of the Basiji militia, preferred to pick up on the Supreme Leader's passage praising action against the "corrupt" and "rioters":
Now, all our people expect the security and intelligence organs as well as the judiciary to take action. People will jump to the fray if they feel these bodies are lax in their duties. People are critical of the laxness of security and judicial bodies against conspirators.

And Islamic Revolution Guard Corps commander Brigadier General Abdollah Araqi has proposed involving the Basiji militiamen, who are now within the Revolutionary Guard, in some IRGC operations.
Most Basijis are not inclined to militarism and so we have trained those interested in military activities separately within the framework of several battalions. The most-trained Basijis are now with Imam Hussein Battalions and their employment in security issues could be influential.

1840 GMT: Getting It Right About the Opposition. Following our responses to this week's attempt by Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett to promote the legitimacy of the Ahmadinejad Government by belittling the opposition, Abbas Milani adds his critique in The New Republic. The take-away quote: "The U.S. can either stand with the people of Iran, and support their quest for democracy—a democracy, incidentally, that offers the only solution to the nuclear problem as well—or it can side with those who defend the moribund regime."

1815 GMT: The University Demonstrations Continue. Compared to the tumult of last month, Iran's universities have been relatively muted in terms of open protest (though not, it should be noted, signed of opposition such as exam boycotts). Today, however, students at Sharif University came out in a show of protest over detentions of their classmates.

We've posted three clips.

1510 GMT: I'll be back in a couple of hours to round up latest news and analysis. Thanks to EA readers for keeping the information coming in.

1500 GMT: For Mahmoud, It's the Nukes. President Ahmadinejad, meanwhile, is staying away from (or being kept from) the internal situation, as he declared in his nationally-televised speech that that further UN Security Council sanctions will not deter Iran from pursuing its nuclear programme:
[Other countries] issued several resolutions and sanctioned Iran ... They think Iranians will fall on their knees over these things but they are mistaken....We are not interested in conflicts (but) you are continually demanding things.

They should not think they can put up obstacles in Iranians' way ... I assure the people ... that the government will whole-heartedly defend Iran's rights and will not back down one iota.

1455 GMT: Reza Razaghi, one of the members of the central legal committee of Mir Hossein Mousavi, was arrested early this morning and moved to an unknown location.

Yadoolah Eslami, a former member of Parliament, has also been arrested.

1445 GMT: Khamenei's Back. Just arrived back in snowy Birmingham to find that, a few thousand miles away, the Supreme Leader has appeared publicly for the first time since Ashura. (You can have a peek at the video.)

Textbook stuff from Ayatollah Khamenei, speaking to visitors from Qom, about how appropriate it is to come down hard on the demonstrators: "The officials of the three forces saw for themselves what the nation is asking for, therefore, they must perform their duties well towards the corrupt and the rioters." (Note: I would be grateful if readers could verify whether Khamenei referred to Ahmadinejad by name.)

The Supreme Leader also played the foreign-spectre-behind-the-opposition card: "The U.S. and Britain and other arrogant powers, as well as their domestic misguided (allies), acted under the banner of struggle against the Imam (Ayatollah Khomeini) and the revolution since the very beginning of the victory of the Islamic revolution. The situation is the same now."

0320 GMT: The Newest Deal has an analysis, which matches up with some information I've received, of the offering-up of former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi as a sacrifice for the deaths of detainees at Kahrizak Prison. A broader way to consider this is that Mortazavi's fate is a "firewall" for the Ahmadinejad Government. If he is punished, the line might be held against pressure on others, including the President.

0300 GMT: Friday was a day, apart from the drama of the gunfire at Mehdi Karroubi's motorcade, to pick up pieces of information and put them together. I had the pleasure of a long chat with a couple of top Iran-watchers. Parts of the discussion will be shaping analyses in forthcoming days, but the two general lines of note were "marathon, not sprint" and "change is coming".

Meanwhile, some of those pieces to note before making my way back to Britain....

The Western media is now responding quickly to headline news from Iran: within hours of the Karroubi incidence, The New York Times, The Times of London, and The Guardian of London, amongst London, had posted stories.

Iran human rights organisations reacted by building the incident into another demand on the Government, referring to possible Basiji and Revolutionary Guard involvement in the events in Qazvin and calling on the regime to ensure the safety of opposition leaders. Reformist members of Parliament, such as Mohammad Reza Tabesh, are asking Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani to safeguard "insulted" legislators.

The Government is definitely going to use the Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO) "terrorist" line as a battering ram against the opposition: state media indicated on Friday that 5 Ashura detainees going on trial will be charged with membership of the organisation.

More news is emerging of students at Iran universities boycotting final examinations in protest at detentions of classmates.
Saturday
Jan092010

Israel and Britain: Tension Over Arrest Warrants Continues

DannyLast week, Israel’s Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon met with Britain's Attorney-General Baroness Scotland of Asthal to discuss how British law may affect Israeli officials visiting the United Kingdom.  Ayalon called the current situation "insufferable": "This will make it difficult for the two countries to maintain a normal relationship."

The meeting follows the revelations that a delegation of Israel Defense Forces officers canceled a planned visit to the UK after the British hosts failed to guarantee that arrest warrants would not be issued.

Baroness Scotland said that she is aware of how much Israel is heeding an urgent solution and of the very same attention British are currently showing to solve the problem. However, Ayalon continued:
If the British law remains unchanged, this would undermine the good relations between the two countries who share common values and interests. The British must bear in mind that these visits serve both countries.
Saturday
Jan092010

Latest Iran Video: Sharif University Demonstration (9 January)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmF9UfjUKsY&feature=channel[/youtube]

The Latest from Iran (9 January): Watching Carefully



[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebNuv1l_YgE&feature=channel[/youtube]
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iv_knDR6A-c&feature=youtu.be&a[/youtube]
Saturday
Jan092010

Israel-Palestine Analysis: The Obama Administration Changes Approach

On Friday, US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton hosted Jordanian Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh. At the press conference, Clinton tried a different tactic in address both Israel and Palestine, she suggested that resolution of the borders and the status of Jerusalem would break the deadlock on the settlements dispute, "Resolving borders resolves settlements, resolving Jerusalem resolves settlements. I think we need to lift our sights and instead of being looking down at the trees, we need to look at the forest."

Clinton and Judeh also stated that negotiations should begin as soon as possible and be bound by deadlines.
Judeh then echoed the US Secretary of State, "If you resolve the question of borders then you automatically resolve not only settlements and Jerusalem but you identify the nature on the ground of the two-state solution and (what) it looks like."

Clinton did not give any details regarding U.S. Mideast special envoy George Mitchell's so called "letters" guaranteeing both sides' demands, saying moreabout the general framework of the process:
There is a hunger for a resolution of this matter, a two-state solution that would rebuke the terrorists and the naysayers, that would give the Palestinians a legitimate state for their own aspirations and would give the Israelis the security they deserve to have.

This is a year of renewed commitment and increased effort towards what we see as an imperative goal for the region and the world.