Iran: 14 Latest Facts and Possibilities from "The Green Brief"

The Latest from Iran (2 July): The “Gradual” Opposition

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I spent a frustrating hour yesterday on The Islam Channel discussing "The Western Media and Iran". It was frustrating because one of the other panellists, referring to stories of demonstrations, violence, and detentions, kept repeating the mantra, "How do we know?" That question, on its own, is fair enough: indeed, it should be asked every time we post a piece of information. In this case, however, the speaker added the direct charge or implication that the demonstrations were the product of the US Government and that reports of violations of human rights were fabrications or exaggerations of the "Western" media.

So it was a useful test case this morning to read the work of Josh Shahryar, who has been blogging for "Anonymous Iran" during the crisis. Shahryar's "Green Brief" is an excellent starting point to test what happened or may have happened in the last 24 hours. We tested some of his claims in the days after the election, and in light of continuing important (but often hard to determine or decipher) developments, I set the list today against our latest information:

1. There have been unconfirmed reports of a protest in Tehran today. There were reports of clashes in Rasht that could be partially confirmed. Clashes broke out when police tried to disperse people who were mourning dead protesters. A doctor and two nurses were badly beaten in Loghman Hospital in Tehran after they tried to stop security forces from arresting an injured protester from the facility. A tweet source talked to a Basiji in Tehran today. According to the source, the Basiji claimed that he was working for Islam, but hoped that he wouldn’t be forced to quell protests again. [The report of clashes in Rasht, if true, is a rare and important indication of demonstrations outside the capital. The report of the beating of hospital staff has not emerged elsewhere and cannot be verified. The report of the penitent Basiji should be treated with caution; similar accounts, changing various details, are racing around the Net and may be a highly-desired symbol of a crack in the security forces.]

2. Protests are being planned for tomorrow - although none could be fully confirmed. A number of Iranian women who’ve formed a quasi-group called Mourning Mothers have announced that they will gather at Laleh Park on Saturday to mourn the dead. Reports from Tehran suggest that shops are being closed earlier than usual. Several sources claimed that the city is in a virtual state of an unofficial curfew. [A good summary --- see our Morning Update, "The 'Gradual' Opposition" --- but reports of earlier shop closings and "unofficial curfew" are not verified.

3-6 (summarised). 3. Mousavi today released his 9th statement since the elections....Khatami criticized the government in a new, harsher tone that suggested outright contempt today....Khatami later met with several families of loved ones arrested during in the violence the past two weeks....A video of Ayatollah Hadi Ghaffari, another prominent Shi’ite cleric has surfaced in which he directly accuses Khamenei of sinning against the people by ordering arrests and killings. [All verified, except the "video" of the Ghaffari statement, as far as we know, is audio overlaid with pictures.]

7. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reportedly said today that there was as much truth to electoral fraud in Iran as there was for the Holocaust. (Ahmadinejad is a Holocaust denier.) Ahmadinejad reportedly cancelled his trip to Libya to attend an African summit today as well. The media reported that Ahmadinejad was too busy at work and there were ‘other priorities’ for him to get to. This comes at a time when some reformists abroad are secretly planning on creating a shadow government for Iran – according to unconfirmed reports. [The cancellation of the President's trip was reported by state media yesterday. This is the first I have heard of a comparison between fraud and the Holocaust. And great caution should be exercised about any claim of planning for "shadow government" --- this is a key part of the State's attempt to portray an attempt by foreign forces for regime change in Tehran.]

8. The Imam's Way Faction (a group of MP’s) of parliament, which is slightly pro-reform, asked the families of detainees to send them documented information about their arrested family members. More high-profile Iranians were arrested today. Among the arrested were: Saeedeh Kordinejad and Zoia Hasani -members of Mosharekat Party, Vahid Amoozadeh-Khalili - the son of another pro-reform personality and Omid Mosleh - a prominent film critic. Mosleh was later released. Mohammad Mostafayee, a prominent lawyer who had been arrested two days ago, was also released on bail today. [All verified.]

9. Vahid Amoozadeh-Khalili’s detention could only be confirmed today, although he had been missing for two days. A high-ranking official in the Police Department confirmed that 1,032 people had been arrested since the start of the protests. According to independent sources, the numbers are likely much higher. There was partial confirmation of the release of 4 other British Embassy's local staffers from Iranian detention. One still remains under arrest.... [Verified.]

10. The Iranian government claimed that the murder of Neda Agha-Soltan was in no way, shape, or form related to the recent ‘riots’. Iran’s Chief of Police announced today that one of the key eye-witnesses of Neda’s death, Arash Hejazi, is actually wanted by Interpol for unspecified crimes. The government had earlier claimed that the bullet that killed Neda was not shot by any weapon currently in use by Iranian Security Forces. [Verified.]

11. Mohammad Ghouchani, the detained editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli, has denied reports published in IRG’s main media outlet Javan Daily that he confessed committing crimes and breaking the law in organizing protests. He also rejected Javan’s claim that he had been secretly trained in an Arab country to carry out subversion tactics. He claimed to not even own a passport. [Verified.]

12. Etemade Melli will be published again starting tomorrow after being banned for a day by the government for reportedly attempting to publish Karoubi’s statements yesterday. Reports suggest that the government is now heavily censoring Etemade Melli as well as other newspapers in order to stop any such statements from getting out to the public. A reporter of government-owned Press TV has also quit his job over perceived bias in the station’s reporting of the events after the election. [Verified. The Press TV reporter is the British, London-based journalist Nick Ferrari.]

13. Today, reporters accompanying the governor of Fars province and the Friday prayers’ Imam of Shiraz stumbled upon four unopened ballot boxes from the elections in Shiraz’s main library. Per electoral rules in Iran, all ballot boxes were supposed to be shipped to Tehran. According to reports, the governor promptly declared the contents of the boxes ‘national documents’ and asked the reporters not to report the incident. [This claim raced around the Internet yesterday. It rings true, but its significance. On its own, it is proof of negligence or error, rather than fraud.]

14. Chants of Allah o Akbar continued to rattle Tehran and other cities of Iran at dusk. A report published by the Guardian reports through a protester's friend that the protester was arrested, beaten and raped. [Verified.]

The Latest from Iran (1 July): The Opposition Regroups

The Latest from Iran (2 July): The “Gradual” Opposition

NEW Iran: Text of Mousavi’s Statement to Supporters (1 July)
Iran: The Post-Election Challenge from the Clerics of Qom
NEW Iran Audio and Text: The “Ghaffari Tape” Criticising the Supreme Leader
The Latest from Iran (30 June): Opposition, It’s Your Move

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2130 GMT: Orwell Would Be So Proud. From an Iranian source on Twitter:

For the 2nd consecutive night reps of prosecutor general & Cultural Ministry were present in publication house demanding alteration of some pages of the Etememad Melli paper. Those reps asked for omitting the interview of the paper's manager as well as [an] analysis of Iran election. The interview was about the reasons for which the paper's publication was prohibited yesterday.

2050 GMT: According to reports, the pro-Karroubi Etemad Melli was only one of six newspapers banned today.

2045 GMT: We've added English-language extracts to the audio of Ayatollah Hadi Ghaffari's denunciation of the Supreme Leader.

2000 GMT: After a three-week blackout, SMS is again working in Tehran. No interruption of the "Allahu Akhbars": "God is Great" is being shouted from the rooftops of Tehran tonight.

1945 GMT: Lara Setrakian of ABC News (US) is also watching Qom, "Keep hearing 2 watch what the clerics say in this phase of #iranelection ex Ayat. Taheri just called this gov illegitimate." (Ayatollah Jaleleddin Taheri is not "ex" but resigned his position as prayer leader in Isfahan in 2002, protesting against the leadership of Iran.)

1925 GMT: More on the Clerical Divide. Mohammad Sahimi of Tehran Bureau is also considering the "differences between hard-liners and leftists [that] go back to 1988", but he adds, "What has been surprising is the reaction of moderate clerics and the silence of clerical hard-liners."

While the Supreme Leader may now have the upper hand over the opposition, Sahimi notes, I think perceptively:

By coming down most definitively on Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s side, Ayatollah Khamenei may no longer be considered to be above the fray, or even feign impartiality. He has now become just another politician subject to criticism. This is damaging, not only to the concept of Velaayat-e Faghih, but also to the whole concept of Mahdi, the hidden 12th Imam, who is supposed to come back some day to save the world from injustice, corruption and chaos. How can the “deputy” of the hidden Imam be as fallible as the next politician?

1520 GMT: That was fast. Fintan Dunne has already posted our 45-minute conversation (see 1510 GMT) about the current political situation in Iran.

1510 GMT: I just finished two interviews, an hour-long discussion to be broadcast later on the Islam Channel's Politics and Beyond programme on "Western Media and Iran" and a conversation with freelance Fintan Dunne on the political conflict and possible accommodation between the different Iranian parties.

On his website, Mr Dunne raises the possibility that a compromise was possible on Monday morning between the Guardian Council and Mir Hossein Mousavi, only hours before the Council closed off the election as fair and final.

1448 GMT: Etemad Mellinewspaper was shut down today by Iranian authorities when it tried to publish a statement from Mehdi Karroubi. It will be allowed to publish tomorrow.

1445 GMT: Press TV is reporting that three of the four Iranian employees of the British Embassy who were detained have been released.

1430 GMT: Another question from Mir Hossein Mousavi, "How can we ask people to spend their religious faith trusting us when they're being blatantly lied to?" He concludes, "It's our historic mission to continue our protest and not abandon retrieving people's rights."

1345 GMT: Just like yesterday, the morning quiet has been replaced by late-afternoon manoeuvres. The Islamic Iran Participation Front has declared, "The election was the result of a year long coup d'etat...that harmed the establishment's legitimacy inside and outside Iran....We openly announce that the result is unacceptable."

And on his website, Ghalam News, Mir Hossein Mousavi has issued his 9th statement to supporters, asserting that the Government is "illegimate". He has called for the release of detainees. And, cleverly, he has turned the regime's pretext of "foreign interference" back upon the Government: "We're worried that this government due to its multitude of intrinsic and extrinsic weaknesses [may be on the] verge of granting advantage to foreigners."

Mousavi asks, "How can people trust a regime which imprisons its friends, colleagues and children?"

1300 GMT: In the category Funny If It Wasn't So Horrible: "Javan newspaper [linked to the Revolutionary Guard] wrote that Mohammad Ghoochani [the chief editor of Etemad Melli] confessed....[that he] traveled to an Arab country to train for ''soft subversion'. Ghoochani does NOT have a passport and has not traveled abroad in the past two years."

1230 GMT: Remember what we said yesterday about President Ahmadinejad's "Pyrrhic victory"? (We had called the President a "lame duck", but an Iranian colleague said he doubted that Ahmadinejad knew what a lame duck was.)

Here you go....

Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called off a trip to Libya for an African Union summit on Wednesday. A spokesman at Ahmadinejad's office said the Libya visit had been canceled. He gave no reason....Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hassan Qashqavi later told state television Ahmadinejad was too busy to go.

This cancellation is in sharp contrast to Ahmadinejad's show of triumph, four days after the election, when he went to Russia for a Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting.

Now the question: is the setback for Ahmadinejad "external", with other countries seeing Iran as unsuitable for close contact, or is it "internal", with other leaders putting a leash on the President?

1215 GMT: Very little political movement, but Lara Setrakian of ABC News (US) brings a disturbing report that the paramilitary Basiji have asked Iran's chief prosecutor for an investigation into Mir Hossein Mousavi's role in protests, laying nine charges, including disturbing security, against him. The "crimes" carry a possible jail sentence of up to 10 years. The initial story came from Iran's Fars News Agency.

0935 GMT: The Washington Post offers details on the public "confession" of detained Newsweek reporter Maziar Bahari, which we noted yesterday. Bahari told local news media that he had covered "illegal gatherings" and promoted a "color revolution" on the model of those in Central and Eastern Europe in the last decade. "The activities of Western journalists in news gathering and spying and gathering intelligence are undeniable," he said.

Continuing the Iranian authorities priority on Britain rather than the US as the chief enemy, Bahari was described as a "former BBC reporter".

0925 GMT: More on the debate amongst the clerics of Qom, which we're covering in detail today, this time from the pro-Government side: "The influential head of a Shiite seminary decreed that 'opposing the view of the Guardian Council is not legal, religious or socially acceptable.' Ayatollah Morteza Moghtadai called for a continued clampdown on opposition demonstrations, saying that 'the view of the leadership is the last word, and everybody in the country must obey it,' Fars reported."

0820 GMT: Michael Slackman's story in The New York Times, "Iran Seeks to Close Door on Further Protests", notes a troubling incident to add to the hundreds (thousands?) of detentions:

One of the most recent arrests, of Bijan Khajehpour, an independent political economist, sent a chill deeper yet into Iran’s civil society because he had not been involved in the opposition demonstrations, political analysts said. Mr. Khajehpour had been detained at the airport coming into the country from Britain, and like many others, has disappeared into the notorious Evin prison, raising concerns over the scope of the crackdown and the prospect of a political purge, the analysts said.

“Bijan was perhaps the last independent-minded analyst living in Tehran who continued to travel to Europe and the U.S. and give open lectures about Iran,” said Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “He always believed that if he was totally transparent, the government would understand he was not doing anything wrong.”

0745 GMT: We just posted our morning features, an analysis of the post-election debate amongst clerics in Qom and the leaked audio of the criticism of the Supreme Leader by Ayatollah Hadi Ghaffari. Moments later, we learned of the latest statement by the philospher and cleric Mohsen Kadivar, a long-time critic of the Iranian leadership, on the "inherent contradiction" between a republic and the iranian system of clerical authority, Velayat-e-Faqih. The Supreme Leader, Kadivar writes, has three options: religious despotism, removal from the Constitutional, or a new form of constitutional leadership.

0515 GMT: There is a regime confidence, rolled out in Press TV English this morning, that it is beyond the election crisis. Interview upon interview with pro-Government Members of Parliament declared: 1) "no one in Qom", referring to clerics, "is talking about the election anymore"; instead 2) there should be a focus investigating and "repair[ing] the damage" caused in the last 18 days (a not-so-veiled attempt to pin responsibility on the "reformists" and, more subtly, a justification of the detentions); 3) it's foreign operatives who caused all this trouble. The last point received the most attention, with a student journalist (message: some of them are on our side) giving the history of outside intervention, supported by footage of CNN set next to images of the 1953 overthrow of the Iranian Government.

A senior advisor to President Ahmadinejad, Mojtaba Samareh Hashemi, was then interviewed, "President Obama had a very good start" with his promises to change US policy on Iran, the Middle East, and Guantanamo Bay"; however, "he has made many claims and we are still waiting for his action....he is under pressure ....from the neo-conservatives and the Israeli Lobby....We think that the President must be more powerful and must comply with [his] principles."

Yet, for all these bold declarations (there is now even a mention of President Ahmadinejad being sworn in "within the next three months"), the rumbles of political challenge continue. Both President candidate Mehdi Karroubi and former President Mohammad Khatami issued statements yesterday that protest would not stop, and their words were supported by reformist parties and the Association of Combatant Clerics. In Qom, which supposedly is not talking about the election, several clerics have come out in the last 72 hours with scathing criticism of the Government.

And, while the public show of defiance receded yesterday amidst the heavy security presence, we have indications that the silence is not a capitulation but a sign that the demonstrators are planning the next move. In particular, we're watching to see if this information stands up: Mir Hossein Mousavi was silent on Monday, but there will be a significant show of resistance in the next 48 hours.

Iran: Text of Mousavi's Statement to Supporters (1 July)

The Latest from Iran (1 July): The Opposition Regroups

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From the website of the National Iranian American Council:

As expected, the Guardian Council finally certified the election results after putting up a show that did not attract anyone’s attention, and ignoring all the fraud and violations that took place…From now on, we will have a government which is in the worst shape in terms of its relationship to the nation, and the majority of the people, including myself, do not accept its legitimacy. “…” It is feared that because of the numerous inherent weaknesses of [this government], it will fall in the trap of granting advantages to the aliens.

People’s trust [in the government] has been lost and denying this fact will not be beneficial. …A regime that relied on people’s trust for 30 year cannot replace that trust with military force overnight. … How can people trust a government that imprisons their friends, colleagues and children based on its own illusions? A military environment only hurts people’s feelings towards the regime. Free media are the respiratory channels of a healthy society; to regain people’s trust do not clog these channels…We alienate everyone from ourselves with smallest excuses…until we are all alone. This is not the way of the Islamic Revolution or Islam, which opens its arms to everyone.....

Despite what happened, we have not lost our great dreams…during the past few months.…All the efforts against you is to make you lose hope in the fruitfulness of your legal protests. It is our historic responsibility to continue our protest and not abandon our efforts to demand the rights of the people. It is our religious obligation not to allow the revolution and the regime to be transformed to something that is rejected by Islam. It is our revolutionary responsibility not to allow the blood of thousands of martyrs to be degraded to a military regime.…

I encourage all the decision-making bureaus not to act like the Guardian Council and leave room to repair mistakes. “…” Our story, no matter how bitter, is a family dispute. If we act prematurely and allow the foreigners to intervene, we will soon regret it. We are at a time when the solution to many of our problems is law. True! Law is not always without flaws. True! Common law is a social contract and like any agreement, it has to be obeyed as long as both parties are committed to it. True! Your (people’s) opposition undermines the constitution; it deprives you from your right to assemble; even if you tie a green piece of cloth to your wrist as a sign of protest, the same people who are responsible for security beat you up. “…” However, our efforts are not to get revenge. Our movement is an attempt to correct and improve our country. To reach this goal, we have to respect even the corpse of law because we know that tomorrow, when we reach our goals, the first thing we need to establish is a commitment to law. “…”

I invite all of you to brotherhood. Our victory depends on your collaboration and this includes the people who voted for other [candidates.] Even those who are against us now and resort to violence share our brotherhood. Because we seek a future where even the person who has beaten our sister and brother in the street [will have a better life.]

At first our goal was to return religious wisdom to the management of our country but in the process, we have been led to higher goals. “…” Today, the public demands the handling of the elections with competency in a way that it would gain national trust and leaves no room for lies and fraud. This has become an undeniable public request…

Several characters and groups have come to me and asked me to forgive what happened in the past. Perhaps they do not realize that I let go off my own personal rights from the beginning. But the issue of the elections was not and is not a personal matter. I cannot let go of or compromise people’s rights which have been violated. The issue is our regime’s republicanism and even its Islamic character. If we do not stand up, there will be no guarantee that what happened in recent elections will not happen in the future. A group of elite are going to come together and create a legal organization to safeguard the dishonored rights and votes of the people by publishing the documents and proofs of fraud and referring to judicial courts. They will regularly announce the results to the people. I will also join this group. This group will demand the enforcement of the constitutional articles that have been violated and in addition, it will pursue the following:

* Stop security and military involvement in electoral issues and return the country to its normal political environment
* Revise the electoral laws in order to eliminate the possibility of widespread fraud and guarantee the neutrality of the overseeing agencies
* Observance of article 27 of the constitution regarding freedom of assembly
* Freedom of the media
* Reactivate independent news websites
* Ban illegal government intervention in communication channels such as Internet, text messaging, and prevent the disconnection of phones and eavesdropping on people’s conversations
* Stop biased treatments, accusations, lies and insults on the state media
* Have independent TV channels inside and outside the country
* Issue permits for social, political, cultural and economic gatherings
* Release of all political prisoners, annulment of all forged security cases

In the end, I wish peace upon all the honorable people of our country, whether they voted for my or not, and especially those who were injured during the recent unfortunate events. I also pay tribute to the martyrs who rolled in their blood in pursuit of their rights and freedom and I ask the almighty god to give their families patience.

Iran: Scott Lucas Audio Interview with Fintan Dunne

The Latest from Iran (1 July): The Opposition Regroups

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Fintan Dunne, a freelance journalist who has already spoken with Professor Muhammad Sahimi of Tehran Bureau and with Professor Hamid Dabashi, was one of the most demanding interviews I've done recently but also one of the most rewarding, covering both the immediate and long-term conflicts and possibilities in the Iranian situation.

Iran Audio and Text: The "Ghaffari Tape" Criticising the Supreme Leader

Iran: The Post-Election Challenge from the Clerics of Qom
The Latest from Iran (1 July): The Opposition Regroups

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Last week, Ayatollah Hadi Ghaffari made a lengthy speech criticising the post-election conduct of the Iranian Government. That in itself was not surprising; other clerics have expressed unease with the events of the last three weeks. Ghaffari went further, however, with his direct challenge to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Unsurprisingly, the leaked audio has created a stir inside and outside Iran. Another copy on YouTube is overlaid with less-than-flattering caricatures of Khamenei.

The audio is in Farsi, of course. Translated extracts, provided by the National Iranian American Committee, follow:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FvNOK3LJtMY[/youtube]

GHAFFARI: Khamenei, your recent actions and behavior has brought shame to us clerics. Our image in the streets and bazaars has been tarnished as everyone is placing us in the same category as Ahmadinejad....Khamenei, you are wrong, your actions are wrong. I believe in the Velayat-e-faqih [system of clerical authority] more than you....

I’m not preaching these messages so that I could be associated with the West. I loathe the West and will fight to the last drop of my blood before I or my land succumbs to the West. On the contrary, I’m preaching these messages on the count that the respect for our profession is gone....

Young people are not praying anymore, whose fault is that? It is your fault Mr. Khamenei, it’s your fault for placing us in the same line as that lunatic Ahmadinejad....Ahmadinejad is nobody, you should congregate with us instead of him.