A Song for Iran? "Free My Land"

The Latest from Iran (3 July): The Long Haul?

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In the last three weeks, numerous musical tributes to the political movement in Iran have emerged. Yesterday Fintan Dunne tipped us off to a song, overlaid with iconic, powerful (and graphic) images, which he thinks "could be THE anthem of Iran's uprising".

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_r0GgHiIzE[/youtube]

The Latest from Iran (2 July): The "Gradual" Opposition

The Latest from Iran (3 July): The Long Haul?

LATEST Video: “Keeping the Peace” (30 June-2 July)
NEW The Doctor Killed Neda: Your Press TV Guide to the Latest in Iran
NEW Iran: 14 Latest Facts and Possibilities from “The Green Brief”
The Latest from Iran (1 July): The Opposition Regroups

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2105 GMT: Reports that more than 15,000 people gathered to lay flowers at the graves of more than 80 "martyrs" in Behesh Zahra cemetery (see 1745 GMT).

2100 GMT: Lara Setrakian of ABC News (US) writes, "Rooftop Allahu Akbars [God is Greats] still on, despite Basij raids. [There was] one case where all residents of a five-floor apartment building were bused to Evin [Prison]."

Setrakian adds, "Rally was set for 6 p.m. today in front of Evin Prison to ask for release of detainees. The next two weeks of protests are planned."

1815 GMT: Press TV, as we reported in a separate entry earlier today, continues to feature the stories of Britain's Channel 4 TV showing 15 June footage of Basiji shooting from the rooftop of their base but not airing the footage of demonstrators attacking the building with Molotov cocktails. It is briefly repeating the "Neda" claim that the doctor who tried to save her is wanted by Interpol (which is false --- see 1730 GMT) and the strained analogy with Venezuela 2002 to imply that Neda was killed by foreign services.

1810 GMT: Reports that Maryam Ameri of Mehdi Karroubi's campaign has been released from detention.

1745 GMT: One event, however, which should be noted. Thousands of people in Tehran visited the graves of "martyrs" in Behesh Zahra cemetery to honour them with flowers. They were watched by "a large number" of plain-clothes security personnel.

1730 GMT: A quiet, almost stand-still, afternoon. Unlike previous days, where there has been an up-turn in political activity around this time, there has been nothing of notice out of Iran. Chatter is around yesterday's news of a threat to prosecute Mir Hossein Mousavi and the lie of Iranian police chief Brigadier General Esmail Ahmadi-Moqaddam, spread by Press TV, that Interpol is pursuing the doctor, Arash Hejazi, who tried to save Neda Agha Soltan's life.

1435 GMT: The Bushman Returneth. John Bolton, Assistant Secretary of State and then US Ambassador to the United Nations from 2001 to 2006, reminds everybody why we're fortunate to have an Obama rather than Bush Administration:

Iran's nuclear threat was never in doubt during its presidential campaign, but the post-election resistance raised the possibility of some sort of regime change. That prospect seems lost for the near future or for at least as long as it will take Iran to finalize a deliverable nuclear weapons capability. Accordingly, with no other timely option, the already compelling logic for an Israeli strike is nearly inexorable.

No doubt those campaign for meaningful reform (and not necessarily "regime change") in Iran will thank Mr Bolton for his concern.

1405 GMT: Al Jazeera English, after a forced two-week confinement to its office, was allowed to film briefly in Tehran yesterday. We've posted the video. (Not sure which is braver: reporter Alireza Ronaghi's stand against the authorities or his stand in the middle of a busy Tehran road.)

1310 GMT: How to Turn a Scandal into a Museum Exhibit. The Governor of Shiraz has explained that four unopened ballot boxes, found by chance yesterday in a library, are from past elections for Assembly of Experts, Parliament, and local councils. The boxes will now be "stored as national documents".

1300 GMT: From Lara Setrakian of ABC News (US), "Tehrani source close to those detained says some have been beaten heavily and waterboarded with hot water."

1255 GMT: Human Rights Watch's report on the life-threatening conditions of detained politician Saeed Hajjarian (see 1100 GMT) is now available on the Internet.

1250 GMT: A reliable Iranian activist on Twitter adds to Mousavi's claim of Government restrictions on the websites of "the Imam's List" members of Parliament, "Managers of Parliament News were also threatened by security forces and prosecutor to change their methods."

1245 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook page has said a "human chain" across Tehran will be formed from 5 p.m. local time on Sunday. The entry declares that the "more people", the "more safety".

Mousavi's page also claims that the websites of "the Imam's List" group of members of Parliament, which were raising the cases of detainees, are now being "filtered" by the Government. The page advises, "A lot of information has to flow to Iran, create a Mailinglist and spend some time to sort and send the news. If you believe it or not, Your Mailinglist is the main media."

1100 GMT: Extract from a report on detained politician Saeed Hajjarian: "Ms. Sarah Leah Whitson, the Executive Director of the Middle East and North Africa division of Human Rights Watch, mentioned that given  Hajarian's physical condition, his arrest is not acceptable in the first place; however, terrible jail conditions together with the pressure on him to confess put his life in danger." Hajjarian was severely disabled by an assassination attempt in March 2000.

0900 GMT: Jim Sciutto of ABC News (US), who has done very good work during the crisis, parallels our analysis: "Former President Khatami & Pres candidates Karoubi and Mousavi call government illegitimate; bold challenge after Supreme Leader again tries to declare race over. Opposition plan now is ad hoc protests: strikes, withdrawing money from state banks, starve state charities, 'lightning' demos. Watch Iran's many memorial ceremonies, where crowds are legal, giving opposition chance to take advantage."

0610 GMT: Perhaps the most striking description of the Islamic Republic offered to me by Iranians is "Gradual Revolution", the idea that the promise of the ideals behind its creation in 1979 --- despite all the intervening difficulties of war, economic challenges, political arguments, and social conflict --- will be fulfilled.

There may now be a new version of that concept. While supporters of the Government and the Supreme Leader will no doubt argue that they are still the defenders of the Revolution, those who have challenged the system in the last three weeks may now be considering their own "gradual" approach.

Mass demonstrations have not been possible for two weeks, and the more limited gatherings struggle against the possibility of violence from security forces and the reality that there can be almost no media coverage. Campaigns have been disrupted by detentions, and the regime is using the "foreign intervention" theme, repeated almost non-stop by state media and now bolstered by forced confessions, to try and neutralise any thought of legitimate protest.

So the opposition has had to adjust its strategy. While ad hoc demonstrations are still occurring (though we cannot be sure of their size), the focus is on keeping the message of resistance alive. Statements from all three symbolic leaders (Mousavi, Karroubi, and Khatami) were issued yesterday. The claim that "it's not over" could also draw from the debate amongst the clerics; this is now being punctuated by dramatic statements such as Ayatollah Ghaffari's speech and now Ayatollah Taheri's "fatwa" calling the election illegitimate and fraudulent.

On the surface, the Government is showing confidence, following up the Guardian Council's Monday verdict with public declarations of triumph and some relaxation of restrictions (SMS service was unblocked yesterday). Yet it still faces a difficult question over detentions. Public protest is now coalescing around the fate of those taken away by the authorities, with relatives gathering in front of Evin Prison, and those proclaiming the illegitimacy of the regime can highlight the lack of legal process (and, for the clerics, religious justification) for the measures.

So the Government has to release the detainees (some have been bailed or freed, but a significant number of high-profile prisoners remain) or commit to the long-term imprisonment of those who challenge it. The former step risks a strengthening of the opposition; the latter may build up the gradual questioning, not only of individual politicians, but of the structures of the Islamic Republic.

The opposition campaign, therefore, is relying on symbolic pronouncements. Latest proposals have included the call for a general strike, possible action on the "days of religious seclusion" (6-8 July), and the weekly gathering in Laleh Park of the mothers of the killed and arrested. The idea that the movement is still alive is to be maintained through symbolic action such as graffiti in public places and the nightly calls of "Allahu Akhbar".

The Doctor Killed Neda: Your Press TV Guide to the Latest in Iran

The Latest from Iran (2 July): The “Gradual” Opposition

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Here, in the half-hour "World News in Full" between 1300 and 1330 GMT, is Press TV English's All You Need to Know on the current Iranian situation:

Item 1 (about nine minutes into the broadcast): Mir Hossein Mousavi "will follow up his electoral complaints through the judicial system". No mention of the opposition campaign's other initiatives, from "human chain" demonstration to general strike. And definitely no mention of the hundreds detained to prevent such initiatives. Followed by....

Item 2: Iran's police chief "has called the death of Neda Agha Soltan a premediated act of murder".

Who did it? "Arash Hejazi, the doctor who witnessed Neda's death, is wanted by Iranian intelligence authorities and Interpol. [The police chief] said Hejazi has given a completely false account of the incident to foreign media. Hejazi, who is studying in England, came to Iran shortly after the post-election unrest started and fled to London a day after Neda's death....[Iranian President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad has called on the judiciary to investigate the death and find those behind it."

After all, "Neda was shot with a small-calibre pistol which is not used by Iranian security forces."

Followed by....

Item 3: "The unrest after Iran's June 12 election is similar to the coup attempt in Venezuela in 2002 when the opposition called for mass demonstrations demanding the vote be annulled...."

In the bloody encounter between pro- and anti-Government protests, "military reports show a number of demonstrators who were targeted with precise head shots by snipers. The military says the snipers were never used by the Venezuelan security forces. Among those shot and killed was a young woman. The video was broadcast repeatedly on opposition TV stations....Many say the scene was staged. Neda Agha Soltan was shot dead in Tehran riots on June 20. She was shot by a small-calibre pistol which was not used by Iranian security forces."

Followed by....

Item 4: "Press TV has obtained new pictures from an attack on a Basiji base during a post-election demonstration in the Iranian capital of Tehran on June 15. The pictures that you are about to see will give you a better understanding of how some TV news channel reports were top-heavy with bias over the developments that were unfolding."

After the reporter describes British Channel 4 News' display of an image of a Basij gunman on the roof of the building while ignoring the violence of the protestors, Newsweek reporter Maziar Bahari [who, far from incidentally, is detained and was brought before a news conference to make a "confession"] says full footage was given to Channel 4.

Iran: 14 Latest Facts and Possibilities from "The Green Brief"

The Latest from Iran (2 July): The “Gradual” Opposition

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I spent a frustrating hour yesterday on The Islam Channel discussing "The Western Media and Iran". It was frustrating because one of the other panellists, referring to stories of demonstrations, violence, and detentions, kept repeating the mantra, "How do we know?" That question, on its own, is fair enough: indeed, it should be asked every time we post a piece of information. In this case, however, the speaker added the direct charge or implication that the demonstrations were the product of the US Government and that reports of violations of human rights were fabrications or exaggerations of the "Western" media.

So it was a useful test case this morning to read the work of Josh Shahryar, who has been blogging for "Anonymous Iran" during the crisis. Shahryar's "Green Brief" is an excellent starting point to test what happened or may have happened in the last 24 hours. We tested some of his claims in the days after the election, and in light of continuing important (but often hard to determine or decipher) developments, I set the list today against our latest information:

1. There have been unconfirmed reports of a protest in Tehran today. There were reports of clashes in Rasht that could be partially confirmed. Clashes broke out when police tried to disperse people who were mourning dead protesters. A doctor and two nurses were badly beaten in Loghman Hospital in Tehran after they tried to stop security forces from arresting an injured protester from the facility. A tweet source talked to a Basiji in Tehran today. According to the source, the Basiji claimed that he was working for Islam, but hoped that he wouldn’t be forced to quell protests again. [The report of clashes in Rasht, if true, is a rare and important indication of demonstrations outside the capital. The report of the beating of hospital staff has not emerged elsewhere and cannot be verified. The report of the penitent Basiji should be treated with caution; similar accounts, changing various details, are racing around the Net and may be a highly-desired symbol of a crack in the security forces.]

2. Protests are being planned for tomorrow - although none could be fully confirmed. A number of Iranian women who’ve formed a quasi-group called Mourning Mothers have announced that they will gather at Laleh Park on Saturday to mourn the dead. Reports from Tehran suggest that shops are being closed earlier than usual. Several sources claimed that the city is in a virtual state of an unofficial curfew. [A good summary --- see our Morning Update, "The 'Gradual' Opposition" --- but reports of earlier shop closings and "unofficial curfew" are not verified.

3-6 (summarised). 3. Mousavi today released his 9th statement since the elections....Khatami criticized the government in a new, harsher tone that suggested outright contempt today....Khatami later met with several families of loved ones arrested during in the violence the past two weeks....A video of Ayatollah Hadi Ghaffari, another prominent Shi’ite cleric has surfaced in which he directly accuses Khamenei of sinning against the people by ordering arrests and killings. [All verified, except the "video" of the Ghaffari statement, as far as we know, is audio overlaid with pictures.]

7. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reportedly said today that there was as much truth to electoral fraud in Iran as there was for the Holocaust. (Ahmadinejad is a Holocaust denier.) Ahmadinejad reportedly cancelled his trip to Libya to attend an African summit today as well. The media reported that Ahmadinejad was too busy at work and there were ‘other priorities’ for him to get to. This comes at a time when some reformists abroad are secretly planning on creating a shadow government for Iran – according to unconfirmed reports. [The cancellation of the President's trip was reported by state media yesterday. This is the first I have heard of a comparison between fraud and the Holocaust. And great caution should be exercised about any claim of planning for "shadow government" --- this is a key part of the State's attempt to portray an attempt by foreign forces for regime change in Tehran.]

8. The Imam's Way Faction (a group of MP’s) of parliament, which is slightly pro-reform, asked the families of detainees to send them documented information about their arrested family members. More high-profile Iranians were arrested today. Among the arrested were: Saeedeh Kordinejad and Zoia Hasani -members of Mosharekat Party, Vahid Amoozadeh-Khalili - the son of another pro-reform personality and Omid Mosleh - a prominent film critic. Mosleh was later released. Mohammad Mostafayee, a prominent lawyer who had been arrested two days ago, was also released on bail today. [All verified.]

9. Vahid Amoozadeh-Khalili’s detention could only be confirmed today, although he had been missing for two days. A high-ranking official in the Police Department confirmed that 1,032 people had been arrested since the start of the protests. According to independent sources, the numbers are likely much higher. There was partial confirmation of the release of 4 other British Embassy's local staffers from Iranian detention. One still remains under arrest.... [Verified.]

10. The Iranian government claimed that the murder of Neda Agha-Soltan was in no way, shape, or form related to the recent ‘riots’. Iran’s Chief of Police announced today that one of the key eye-witnesses of Neda’s death, Arash Hejazi, is actually wanted by Interpol for unspecified crimes. The government had earlier claimed that the bullet that killed Neda was not shot by any weapon currently in use by Iranian Security Forces. [Verified.]

11. Mohammad Ghouchani, the detained editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli, has denied reports published in IRG’s main media outlet Javan Daily that he confessed committing crimes and breaking the law in organizing protests. He also rejected Javan’s claim that he had been secretly trained in an Arab country to carry out subversion tactics. He claimed to not even own a passport. [Verified.]

12. Etemade Melli will be published again starting tomorrow after being banned for a day by the government for reportedly attempting to publish Karoubi’s statements yesterday. Reports suggest that the government is now heavily censoring Etemade Melli as well as other newspapers in order to stop any such statements from getting out to the public. A reporter of government-owned Press TV has also quit his job over perceived bias in the station’s reporting of the events after the election. [Verified. The Press TV reporter is the British, London-based journalist Nick Ferrari.]

13. Today, reporters accompanying the governor of Fars province and the Friday prayers’ Imam of Shiraz stumbled upon four unopened ballot boxes from the elections in Shiraz’s main library. Per electoral rules in Iran, all ballot boxes were supposed to be shipped to Tehran. According to reports, the governor promptly declared the contents of the boxes ‘national documents’ and asked the reporters not to report the incident. [This claim raced around the Internet yesterday. It rings true, but its significance. On its own, it is proof of negligence or error, rather than fraud.]

14. Chants of Allah o Akbar continued to rattle Tehran and other cities of Iran at dusk. A report published by the Guardian reports through a protester's friend that the protester was arrested, beaten and raped. [Verified.]

The Latest from Iran (1 July): The Opposition Regroups

The Latest from Iran (2 July): The “Gradual” Opposition

NEW Iran: Text of Mousavi’s Statement to Supporters (1 July)
Iran: The Post-Election Challenge from the Clerics of Qom
NEW Iran Audio and Text: The “Ghaffari Tape” Criticising the Supreme Leader
The Latest from Iran (30 June): Opposition, It’s Your Move

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2130 GMT: Orwell Would Be So Proud. From an Iranian source on Twitter:

For the 2nd consecutive night reps of prosecutor general & Cultural Ministry were present in publication house demanding alteration of some pages of the Etememad Melli paper. Those reps asked for omitting the interview of the paper's manager as well as [an] analysis of Iran election. The interview was about the reasons for which the paper's publication was prohibited yesterday.

2050 GMT: According to reports, the pro-Karroubi Etemad Melli was only one of six newspapers banned today.

2045 GMT: We've added English-language extracts to the audio of Ayatollah Hadi Ghaffari's denunciation of the Supreme Leader.

2000 GMT: After a three-week blackout, SMS is again working in Tehran. No interruption of the "Allahu Akhbars": "God is Great" is being shouted from the rooftops of Tehran tonight.

1945 GMT: Lara Setrakian of ABC News (US) is also watching Qom, "Keep hearing 2 watch what the clerics say in this phase of #iranelection ex Ayat. Taheri just called this gov illegitimate." (Ayatollah Jaleleddin Taheri is not "ex" but resigned his position as prayer leader in Isfahan in 2002, protesting against the leadership of Iran.)

1925 GMT: More on the Clerical Divide. Mohammad Sahimi of Tehran Bureau is also considering the "differences between hard-liners and leftists [that] go back to 1988", but he adds, "What has been surprising is the reaction of moderate clerics and the silence of clerical hard-liners."

While the Supreme Leader may now have the upper hand over the opposition, Sahimi notes, I think perceptively:

By coming down most definitively on Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s side, Ayatollah Khamenei may no longer be considered to be above the fray, or even feign impartiality. He has now become just another politician subject to criticism. This is damaging, not only to the concept of Velaayat-e Faghih, but also to the whole concept of Mahdi, the hidden 12th Imam, who is supposed to come back some day to save the world from injustice, corruption and chaos. How can the “deputy” of the hidden Imam be as fallible as the next politician?

1520 GMT: That was fast. Fintan Dunne has already posted our 45-minute conversation (see 1510 GMT) about the current political situation in Iran.

1510 GMT: I just finished two interviews, an hour-long discussion to be broadcast later on the Islam Channel's Politics and Beyond programme on "Western Media and Iran" and a conversation with freelance Fintan Dunne on the political conflict and possible accommodation between the different Iranian parties.

On his website, Mr Dunne raises the possibility that a compromise was possible on Monday morning between the Guardian Council and Mir Hossein Mousavi, only hours before the Council closed off the election as fair and final.

1448 GMT: Etemad Mellinewspaper was shut down today by Iranian authorities when it tried to publish a statement from Mehdi Karroubi. It will be allowed to publish tomorrow.

1445 GMT: Press TV is reporting that three of the four Iranian employees of the British Embassy who were detained have been released.

1430 GMT: Another question from Mir Hossein Mousavi, "How can we ask people to spend their religious faith trusting us when they're being blatantly lied to?" He concludes, "It's our historic mission to continue our protest and not abandon retrieving people's rights."

1345 GMT: Just like yesterday, the morning quiet has been replaced by late-afternoon manoeuvres. The Islamic Iran Participation Front has declared, "The election was the result of a year long coup d'etat...that harmed the establishment's legitimacy inside and outside Iran....We openly announce that the result is unacceptable."

And on his website, Ghalam News, Mir Hossein Mousavi has issued his 9th statement to supporters, asserting that the Government is "illegimate". He has called for the release of detainees. And, cleverly, he has turned the regime's pretext of "foreign interference" back upon the Government: "We're worried that this government due to its multitude of intrinsic and extrinsic weaknesses [may be on the] verge of granting advantage to foreigners."

Mousavi asks, "How can people trust a regime which imprisons its friends, colleagues and children?"

1300 GMT: In the category Funny If It Wasn't So Horrible: "Javan newspaper [linked to the Revolutionary Guard] wrote that Mohammad Ghoochani [the chief editor of Etemad Melli] confessed....[that he] traveled to an Arab country to train for ''soft subversion'. Ghoochani does NOT have a passport and has not traveled abroad in the past two years."

1230 GMT: Remember what we said yesterday about President Ahmadinejad's "Pyrrhic victory"? (We had called the President a "lame duck", but an Iranian colleague said he doubted that Ahmadinejad knew what a lame duck was.)

Here you go....

Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called off a trip to Libya for an African Union summit on Wednesday. A spokesman at Ahmadinejad's office said the Libya visit had been canceled. He gave no reason....Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hassan Qashqavi later told state television Ahmadinejad was too busy to go.

This cancellation is in sharp contrast to Ahmadinejad's show of triumph, four days after the election, when he went to Russia for a Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting.

Now the question: is the setback for Ahmadinejad "external", with other countries seeing Iran as unsuitable for close contact, or is it "internal", with other leaders putting a leash on the President?

1215 GMT: Very little political movement, but Lara Setrakian of ABC News (US) brings a disturbing report that the paramilitary Basiji have asked Iran's chief prosecutor for an investigation into Mir Hossein Mousavi's role in protests, laying nine charges, including disturbing security, against him. The "crimes" carry a possible jail sentence of up to 10 years. The initial story came from Iran's Fars News Agency.

0935 GMT: The Washington Post offers details on the public "confession" of detained Newsweek reporter Maziar Bahari, which we noted yesterday. Bahari told local news media that he had covered "illegal gatherings" and promoted a "color revolution" on the model of those in Central and Eastern Europe in the last decade. "The activities of Western journalists in news gathering and spying and gathering intelligence are undeniable," he said.

Continuing the Iranian authorities priority on Britain rather than the US as the chief enemy, Bahari was described as a "former BBC reporter".

0925 GMT: More on the debate amongst the clerics of Qom, which we're covering in detail today, this time from the pro-Government side: "The influential head of a Shiite seminary decreed that 'opposing the view of the Guardian Council is not legal, religious or socially acceptable.' Ayatollah Morteza Moghtadai called for a continued clampdown on opposition demonstrations, saying that 'the view of the leadership is the last word, and everybody in the country must obey it,' Fars reported."

0820 GMT: Michael Slackman's story in The New York Times, "Iran Seeks to Close Door on Further Protests", notes a troubling incident to add to the hundreds (thousands?) of detentions:

One of the most recent arrests, of Bijan Khajehpour, an independent political economist, sent a chill deeper yet into Iran’s civil society because he had not been involved in the opposition demonstrations, political analysts said. Mr. Khajehpour had been detained at the airport coming into the country from Britain, and like many others, has disappeared into the notorious Evin prison, raising concerns over the scope of the crackdown and the prospect of a political purge, the analysts said.

“Bijan was perhaps the last independent-minded analyst living in Tehran who continued to travel to Europe and the U.S. and give open lectures about Iran,” said Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “He always believed that if he was totally transparent, the government would understand he was not doing anything wrong.”

0745 GMT: We just posted our morning features, an analysis of the post-election debate amongst clerics in Qom and the leaked audio of the criticism of the Supreme Leader by Ayatollah Hadi Ghaffari. Moments later, we learned of the latest statement by the philospher and cleric Mohsen Kadivar, a long-time critic of the Iranian leadership, on the "inherent contradiction" between a republic and the iranian system of clerical authority, Velayat-e-Faqih. The Supreme Leader, Kadivar writes, has three options: religious despotism, removal from the Constitutional, or a new form of constitutional leadership.

0515 GMT: There is a regime confidence, rolled out in Press TV English this morning, that it is beyond the election crisis. Interview upon interview with pro-Government Members of Parliament declared: 1) "no one in Qom", referring to clerics, "is talking about the election anymore"; instead 2) there should be a focus investigating and "repair[ing] the damage" caused in the last 18 days (a not-so-veiled attempt to pin responsibility on the "reformists" and, more subtly, a justification of the detentions); 3) it's foreign operatives who caused all this trouble. The last point received the most attention, with a student journalist (message: some of them are on our side) giving the history of outside intervention, supported by footage of CNN set next to images of the 1953 overthrow of the Iranian Government.

A senior advisor to President Ahmadinejad, Mojtaba Samareh Hashemi, was then interviewed, "President Obama had a very good start" with his promises to change US policy on Iran, the Middle East, and Guantanamo Bay"; however, "he has made many claims and we are still waiting for his action....he is under pressure ....from the neo-conservatives and the Israeli Lobby....We think that the President must be more powerful and must comply with [his] principles."

Yet, for all these bold declarations (there is now even a mention of President Ahmadinejad being sworn in "within the next three months"), the rumbles of political challenge continue. Both President candidate Mehdi Karroubi and former President Mohammad Khatami issued statements yesterday that protest would not stop, and their words were supported by reformist parties and the Association of Combatant Clerics. In Qom, which supposedly is not talking about the election, several clerics have come out in the last 72 hours with scathing criticism of the Government.

And, while the public show of defiance receded yesterday amidst the heavy security presence, we have indications that the silence is not a capitulation but a sign that the demonstrators are planning the next move. In particular, we're watching to see if this information stands up: Mir Hossein Mousavi was silent on Monday, but there will be a significant show of resistance in the next 48 hours.