Iran Latest: A Khatami Action Plan?

The Latest from Iran (23 June): Preparing for Thursday

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This purported letter from former President Mohammad Khatami has just posted on an activist website,"Release Iran". It should be treated with caution: for example, Khatami's call for a daily march to the Bazaar follows earlier Twitter chatter that Mir Hossein Mousavi was proposing the idea. Still, the general lines of the letter correspond with information we have been receiving about the stepping-up of the protest campaign in the next 48 hours:

In the name of God, the Compassionate, the Merciful.

We are no longer going to waste our energy. We have said what needed to be said to the world, however now it’s time to act rather efficiently.

Effective this Tuesday June 23rd, 2009, every morning we shall protest towards the main bazaars of every single city in Iran. Should the revolutionary guards try to avoid the situation, the bazaar will be shut down. Should they don’t react to our protests, due to the mayhem caused by protesters, the bazaar will automatically shut down. Should they try to cut the phone lines around the country, yet again there will be a massive conflict within all the activities, resulting in the bazaar shutting down.

We shall bring our children along, and peacefully continue our protests. No sign boards, without wearing green, we go towards the bazaar with the intention of shopping. However we will buy nothing and we go with the aim of closing down the bazaar. We shall leave no marks or traces behind ourselves, not even showing the victory sign with our hands.

We shall only think of Victory. Should any of the hard liners and oppositions try to cause violence, we shall not interfere or get involved, since we are only there with the intention of shopping freely, therefore no one should fear and everyone should come along. If the revolutionary guards try to use tear gas against us, the bazaar will get shut down again. We should act smart and never ever get involved in any sort of violence.

The death of our youth and people is no good to anyone. Neither the reformists, nor Mr. Mir Hossein Mousavi wants to see your sacrifice and martyrdom, what we want to see is your leadership and cooperation. What we needs is results, therefore it’s your duty to pass the news around and persuade every single Iranian looking for freedom and democracy to join us and follow this plan.

This plan will be very efficient and peaceful, which will result in least number of casualties, deaths or violence. This will bring millions of Iranians to the scene without any bloodshed. Don’t doubt the effectiveness of this plan, be prepared to hear rumors from oppositions about such plans being false. Don’t listen to what you hear, listen to your heart and remember, after all the bloodshed, you now have a massive responsibility on your shoulders, and that’s nothing but victory.

Now that we have so much restriction on our media, every single one of you should act as one. Spread the word around and act quickly.

Good luck.

Iran: An Eyewitness Account of Monday's Demonstration

The Latest from Iran (23 June): Preparing for Thursday
Iran: 2+2 = A Breakthrough? (Mousavi and the Clerics)

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Via a discussion list on Iran, we have received the following from a Tehran resident:

I cannot sleep and not write this.

Today in Haft-e Tir [7 Tir Square], there were so many members of basij that they outnumbered the demonstrators 3 or 4 to 1. They were less focused on women. This must be related to the murder of poor Neda. And this was also why whenever they got hold of a man, women would surround them and shout don't beat him, don't beat and they would turn and anxiously say we didn't
beat him. It was astonishing. They explained; they talked.

But they didn't allow us to congregate; they kept telling us to walk and the crowd walked quietly for 2 hours in the circle (meydaan) and spontaneously gathered in whichever area they were not present. About 2000 of us were walking around the circle and only shouting Allah-o Akbar until they were forced to disperse us with tear and pepper gases. I thoughtpeople's patience and persistence was great, although there were also many bad scenes and I cried.

They arrested a whole bus load of people. There were many intelligence folks in the crowd too. They would point to a person and the basijis would arrest that person. There was no one from Sepah [Revolutionary Guard] and the police was obviously sympathetic to the crowd. I swear some of the Basijis were only 14 or 15, or at least what they looked like to me. On the other hand, women are playing an amazing role in the streets; both in terms of numbers and effectiveness..

UPDATED Iran: Who Was "Neda"? "A Beam of Light"

The Latest from Iran (23 June): Preparing for Thursday
Iran: Who Was "Neda"?

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UPDATE 1115 GMT: We are posting the video of Al Jazeera's interview with Neda Agha Soltan's fiancee, Caspian Makan.

After we posted our profile yesterday of Neda Agha Sultan, the young woman killed on Saturday by a paramilitary Basij and now a symbol for the Iranian protest movement, Borzos Daraghi of The Los Angeles Times offered details.

Neda was 26, the daughter of a Government worker and a housewife. The second of three children, she was studying Islamic philosophy, but her hope was to become a tour guide. She was taking Turkish-language courses and visited Turkey for the first time two months ago. She loved music, especially Persion pop; she was an excellent singer and was pursuing piano classes.

According to friends, Neda was far from a revolutionary. She believed in the Islamic system of Iran; however, she was angered by the outcome of the Presidential protest. So, against the advice of her friends, she attended demonstrations. Last Saturday, her group was stuck in traffic east of Azadi Square on Karegar Street, where security forces were trying to disperse marchers. They got out of the car to walk around. Moments later, after being seen on film walking with a man in a blue shirt (now said to be her music teacher), Neda was struck by a single bullet.

Who was Neda? The music teacher said on Sunday, "She was a person full of joy. She was a beam of light."

The Latest from Iran (22 June): Waiting for the Next Move

The Latest from Iran (23 June): Preparing for Thursday

Iran: 2+2 = A Breakthrough? (Mousavi and the Clerics)
Iran: Detained Iranian Politicians and Journalists
Iran: Who was "Neda"?
Iran: The “Mousavi Revolutionary Manifesto” for Change (Gary Sick)
The Latest from Iran (21 June): Does the Fight Continue?
LATEST Video: The “Neda” Protests (20-21 June)

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2300 GMT: It's on....Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook site put out the news this evening, "There will be another peaceful demonstration in Tehran to honor the martyrs on Thursday. Please Update us with your 'Solidarity' Events around the globe on Thursday."

There will now be a 60-hour cat-and-mouse game between the protest movement and the Government. Iran State-run media had already spread the message from the Revolutionary Guards, warning demonstrators not to take to the streets Tuesday. That is now superseded by preparations for Thursday, as we predicted in a separate entry earlier today: Mousavi is declaring that he will announce the march route for Thursday much closer to the time, thus limiting the Government's ability to react.

The latest news overtakes the Government's pseudo-concession earlier in the evening. Press TV repeated the news that Guardian Council and Ministry of the Interior would conduct a box-by-box vote recount, but those same bodies added that no one should expect that this would change the results.

2100 GMT: Mousavi supporters say a general strike is to take place in Iran on Tuesday.

1920 GMT: We have now posted a special snap analysis of today's possibly significant breakthrough from talks between Mir Hossein Mousavi and senior clerics.

1910 GMT: State-run media is reporting that the Ministry of the Interior will carry out a box-by-box vote recount.

Lara Setrakian of ABC News (US) reports that demos continue across Tehran. Paramilitary Basiji are stopping any group of 2 or more people and shooting at "suspects" with paintballs to identify who has been in protests. "God is great" is ringing out from the rooftops of Tehran. Tehran Bureau adds that Basiji are stopping cars and confiscating any cameras, taking the ID cards of the owners.

1810 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has now posted his appeal to the Guardian Council.

1720 GMT: Claims on Twitter that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi will address a "silent, civil rally" in Tehran on Thursday. Karroubi has also reportedly urged the Guardian Council to annul the Presidential vote instead of wasting time.

1520 GMT: Al Jazeera English's Alireza Ronaghi reports "small gatherings" in a small park near 7 Tir Square with "far too many" security personnel for an ordinary afternoon. "On every important crossroad and...traffic bridges, we saw security forces and special units of the police standing by....Many of these people are just wearing normal clothes with helmets and shields."

Ronaghi also spoke with a key Ahmadinejad advisor, Alireza Zaker-Esfahani, who said, "I don't think the unrest will last. Iran's history is proof of that....Failure [of Mousavi campaign] always brings dissatisfaction. The emotional conditions will not last." The current problem is "the weakness in Mir Hossein Mousavi's political behaviour, which could help calm public opinion by giving it the right information. Unfortunately he did the opposite."

And the reason for President Ahmadinejad's near-disappearance since last Sunday? Zaker-Esfahani asserted, "If he enters the scene now, he may expose himself to the accusation that he --- as Mousavi might said --- is an accomplice in possible irregularity."

1515 GMT: Neda Agha Soltan's fiancee has confirmed to BBC Persian TV what we reported this morning in a short profile of the woman killed on Saturday by paramilitary Basiji: she was buried quickly yesterday and Iranian authorities prevented any memorial service.

1450 GMT: AP reports that the British government is going to evacuate families of British diplomatic personnel in Iran.

1408 GMT: CNN close to helpless now. They are insisting on calling the quick burial of Neda Agha Soltan and the cancelled memorial service "rumours". (We received verified information on this early this morning.)

1402 GMT: Press TV also headlining, "Iran Confirms First Swine Flu Case". Just waiting for this to be blamed on "Western interference". (The patient is a 16-year-old Iranian resident of the US who was visiting Iran.)

1400 GMT: Reports that Iranian security forces have used tear gas and fired gunshots into the air to disperse the protesters at 7 Tir Square. Press TV continues to lag behind events with the headline that the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) "is ready to crush new riots". The IRGC also hailed the Presidential election as "an epic that disappointed the enemies".

1330 GMT: BNO News now reports clashes in Tehran. The AFP wire now says there are 1000 protesters (the figure of 200 appears to have been an error).

1315 GMT: Twitter's BNO News, citing AFP, report that there are 200 people at the rally in Tehran- not the 1000+ reported by Reuters.

1255 GMT: A new rally appears to be taking place in Tehran, possibly in memory of Neda Soltan. CNN's David Clinch reports on Twitter, "Hundreds of protestors have gathered at Haft-e Tir square in Tehran. Hundreds of Basijis + riot police confronting the crowd". A smaller demonstration is also due to take place at the Iranian embassy in London.


1230 GMT: Reuters reports that the Italian embassy in Tehran is open to wounded protesters.

1150 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi has urged supporters to stage more protests against Ahmadinejad's reelection. Iran has meanwhile accused the BBC and Voice of America of engineering post-election unrest in Iran.

1105 GMT: We have just posted a video which appears to show Neda Soltan minutes before her death.

1055 GMT: Associated Press are reporting that Iran's Revolutionary Guard are threatening to "crush" any further protests. Iranian activists say roadblocks from the north to south of Tehran have been set up to prevent congregation of protesters. The Iranian Parliament (Majlis) is under heavy guard, and all roads and alleyways around the Ministry of the Interior are closed with concrete blocks and guards.

1045 GMT: Has "Neda" become the symbolic key to the movement's next steps? Mir Houssein Mousavi and advisors are making a concerted effort to link image and protest, both on Mousavi's Facebook site and on a special page devoted to Neda Agha Soltan.

1015 GMT: Twitter users report that there will be a candlelit vigil for Neda Soltan this evening from 5  to 7 p.m. in 7 Tir Square, Tehran.

1005 GMT: Press TV's website and TV channel are both currently leading with Iran's condemnation of "foreign interference by certain Western states in the country's internal affairs." Significantly, however, Press TV have also announced that results in the 50 cities where the number of votes cast exceeded the number of eligible voters would not have had an impact on the outcome of the election.


1000 GMT: Press TV has confirmed that the daughter and four other relatives of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani have been released from detention.

1010 GMT: Twitter's PersianKiwi, previously a reliable source of information, believes that Mehdi Karroubi is to publish an announcement today.

0935 GMT: Reuters reports that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has said that a change of leadership in Iran could lead to peaceful relations between the two states. "There is no conflict between the Iranian people and the people of Israel and under a different regime the friendly relations that prevailed in the past could be restored," he told the German newspaper Bild. "What we have seen in Iran is a powerful desire on the part of the Iranian people to be free."

0900 GMT: On the BBC's flagship radio programme Today, Jeremy Bowen offered a similar line to that in our Morning Update (0500 GMT): "The opposition has to decide what its next move will be."

0645 GMT: I'm off on academic duties until mid-afternoon. Mike Dunn will keep an eye on the latest news and update. Meanwhile, please keep sending in your information and comments.

0640 GMT: A far-from incidental detail that was lost over the weekend. The spokesman for the Guardian Council admitted to state-run IRIB television that the number of votes collected in 50 cities was more than the number of eligible voters. The total vote concerned is about 3 million.

0630 GMT: The latest phase of the Iranian Government's attack against "Western interference" was just launched by Foreign Ministry spokesman Hassan Qashqavi in his weekly press conference. He was expansive and at times almost agitated in his denuncation, claiming at one point that CNN was posting material on how to conduct "cyber-warfare" against Iran.

The strategy was far from subtle and far from unexpected. What was more interesting was that some of the questions to Qashqavi were challenging, preferring to focus on the details of the Presidential vote rather than American, British, or French meddling. Qashqavi was uneasy at these points, avoiding the questions and returning to his main theme, arguing that there was no interference when the US had its own disputed Presidential election in 2000.

Morning Update 0500 GMT: There is still an uneasy lull in political developments and widespread protests. Press TV is eagerly reporting, "Calm has returned to the streets of the Iranian capital Tehran," with film showing cars moving freely and pedestrians strolling in shopping districts. The violence of Saturday is blamed on protestors "who attacked security forces who tried to disrupt" their march, with "hundreds" arrested (other Iranian state media put the number at 457).

Iranian authorities are trying to choke off the political challenge. They have arrested not only many advisors of Presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi but also five members of former President Rafsanjani's family (although they were later reported to have been released). A large but unknown number of activists and opposition party members have also been detained. Media coverage has been closed off, not only through denial of movement to reporters but arrests of about two dozen journalists.

Mousavi is responding through statements posted on his Facebook site and webpage. Yesterday he declared,""Protesting against lies and fraud (in the election) is your right...In your protests, continue to show restraint. I am expecting armed forces to avoid irreversible damage."

However, to maintain momentum, the challenge to the Government and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad awaits movement on two fronts. Within the higher reaches of the system, Rafsanjani's challenge appears to have been blunted, with senior clerics unwilling to come out openly against the Supreme Council. The Guardian Council is holding the line on the legitimacy of the Presidential vote, and Ali Larijani's call for reforms, which we covered in detail yesterday, will have only limited if any effects.

The second front of mass pressure is also uncertain. There has been talk of a candlelight march this afternoon and of a general strike, but nothing firm has crystallised. At this point, it is more likely that there will be scattered demonstrations today.

This does not mean that the battle is over, only slowed. The symbol of "Neda", the 27-year-old student killed by paramilitary Basiji on Saturday, has spread beyond Iran and around the world. Symbols, however, can only represent change rather than bringing it about. Whether Neda Agha Soltan's death will accompany a long-term movement in Iranian politics and society or will become one of many tragic footnotes to this crisis remains to be seen.

Iran: 2+2 = A Breakthrough? (Mousavi and the Clerics)

The Latest from Iran (23 June): Preparing for Thursday
Iran Latest: A Khatami Action Plan?

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Take 2 --- Reliable activists on Twitter indicate that Presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi was in Qom on Monday talking to "senior clerics".

Add 2 --- Within the last two hours, the Assocation of Combatant Clerics, associated with former President Khatami, has issued a statement in support of Mousavi.

Do you get the 4 of a significant upsurge in the movement against the Iranian Government?



I'm not sure, but these developments would explain why the opposition leadership was relatively quiet and unseen today, as scattered demonstrations took place in Tehran. It would also explain why, in the last few hours, Presidential candidate Karroubi has put pressure on the Guardian Council to annul the vote. And I think it would explain why the Mousavi and Karroubi groups have called for a rally on Thursday as a memorial to those who have lost their lives in the demonstrations (including "Neda", whose own memorial service was blocked by the Iranian authorities).

If this is true, this is a significant challenge. But its problem may be that, having given 72 hours' notice of the rally, it gives the Government and its agencies time to organise their response, which will no doubt be to block any mass gathering.