Wednesday
Mar102010
"Iran at a Crossroads": Scott Lucas Speaks in Washington
Wednesday, March 10, 2010 at 23:10 
UPDATE 9 MARCH: I'm setting off in a few hours. Iran updates will be lighter than usual until Saturday, but we will keep our eyes on events and try and keep you posted. And, of course, our readers --- thanks to all of you for advice for this trip --- can be relied upon to provide information and comment.have been invited to speak next Wednesday at "Iran at a Crossroads", a hearing organised by the National Iranian American Council at the US Senate Office Building in Washington, DC. The event, sponsored by US Senators and including statements from US Congressman, is expected to draw an audience of legislators, government officials, and journalists, as well as the general public.
The event will be live-streamed from 9 a.m. local time(1400 GMT) at NIACInsight.
9:30 AM-9:45 AM
WELCOMING REMARKS
Congresswoman Anna Eshoo (CA-14)
9:45 AM-10:15 AM
SPECIAL ADDRESS
Congressman Keith Ellison (MN-5)
10:15 AM-11:30 AM
PANEL I: A CENTURY OLD STRUGGLE FOR DEMOCRACY
Prof. Shireen Hunter
Visiting Fellow, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Prof. Scott Lucas
Professor, University of Birmingham, UK, Editor, Enduring America Blog
Prof. Ahmad Karimi-Hakkak
Director, Roshan Cultural Heritage Institute Center for Persian Studies, University of Maryland
Moderator
Neil MacFarquhar
New York Times
12:00 PM-12:15 PM
SPECIAL ADDRESS
Congressman Mike Honda (CA-15)
12:15 PM-1:30 PM
PANEL II: THE US AND IRAN: BACK TO CONFRONTATION?
Prof. Juan Cole
Richard P. Mitchell Collegiate Professor of History, University of Michigan
Amb. Robert Hunter
Senior Advisor, RAND Corporation
Prof. Muhammad Sahimi
Professor, University of Southern California
Moderator
Dr. Trita Parsi
President, National Iranian American Council
1:30pm – 1:45 pm
CLOSING REMARKS
Dr. Trita Parsi
President, National Iranian American Council
Reader Comments (83)
Did anyone wonder why the shop models of women only had half a head ? (flat, or curved). Is this done deliberately to mean women don't have any brains ? It looks most strange.
Further reading:
Islamic Republic Lobby in the US: http://english.iranianlobby.com/page1.php?id=50&bakhsh=ANALYSIS
Sahimi's DIVISIVE article http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2010/03/different-shades-of-green.html
Sorry, NIAC an its founder are closet Leverett. Those who are pushing the “do noting policy” are not on the side of Green movements. They are closet Islamic Republic friends. Wearing Green does not make you a friend of Green Movement.
Maziar,
"Are these the type of people that US listens to in order to decide policy?!"
No, the US House of Representatives in Wednesday meeting are neither key players nor are they policy makers.
Ouch! :( Megan! :(
Megan, I love the term "closet Leverett"! I think it will make its way into the political jargon! What do you want the US to do to help the Green Movement? We hear so many contradictory views it's hard to figure out what would actually help, but you seem to have a good view, what do you think would help for real?
@ Samuel
RE post 23 Now I see that they are bringing in ladies of a certain advanced age. (It goes without saying that I have nothing against ladies of advanced age). What could these Mullahs be up to???
It's obvious! They may look like elderly ladies to you, but in actual fact they are hardened members of the Flying Carpet Martyrs Brigade doing a bit of maintenance on their killing machines. NOW what do you think those Mullahs are up to, eh?
@ Samuel
RE post 24 "By the way those Lebanese Hizbollah mercenaries look very well fed while the Iranian people starve." (http://www.qlineorientalist.com/IranRises/category/lebanese-hezbollah/).
Pardon me, but not every Iranian is starving: http://tinyurl.com/yezkz3p
Admittedly, some aren't being fed as well as others: http://tinyurl.com/yexnmqd
Rev. Magdalen,
Thank you. You are generous to qualify my views as “good”. Others may not be as generous.
Good or bad I definitely have a position and that is we cannot continue the “wait and see” policy. IR is a world problem and not just an Iranian problem, a problem that will not go away on its own. If anything the more we wait the more difficult and the more costly it will be to deal with it. If we had dealt with IR in 1979 when Iranian women rose up against IR for blatant discrimination against them or in the 80’s when thousands of oppositions were executed without due process it would have been much easier. We would have been able to eliminate the fascist regime before it set out strong roots. At minimum at that time we did not have to worry about getting a buy in from China and Russia for sanctions as we have today.
I stated the obvious above and that was not your question. Your question was “what” to do today. I will try to address that as follows.
I do not have access to the intelligence our government and our policy makers have to suggest any specific strategy. Lat summer, I wrote in this very same blog that “engagement” policy would not work and force was the only language IR computed. Now that we have moved from “Engagement” to “Pressure” policy, I would like to see that we move quickly from discussion to execution. I hope we have enough smarts to come up with sanctions that deliver the knockout punch and if it did not I hope we are agile enough to correct course as we move forward.
I would not pay much attention to naysayers or those who want sanctions that strangle the regime but do not affect Iranian people. There is no such silver bullet and anyone expecting that is not realistic. I believe in “no pain, no gain”. Iranians must be prepared for more pain and more sacrifices (and I know they are) and so should we and the rest of the world community. To naysayers I say show me a freedom that has been free and I will write you a prescription for it.
If sanctions did not put the noose around IR neck and Iranians still remained committed in toppling the regime and asked for help we should look at other options at that time.
I so wish that individuals such as Maziar and Megan had some actual ideas to contribute to the discussion of what the US, the World, or us expatriates could do to help The Greens. I'm glad that Megan in her last post at least made clear she is fully ok with "pain" that she thinks the Iranian people should "be willing to endure". in fact, she makes a veiled reference that hey, if it ends up in war, thats fine with her too ("...we should look at other options at that time."
The key take-away is that Trita Parsi and NIAC have consistently provided actual suggestions and solutions for how to HELP the Iranian people in a way that actually serves long-term American interests rather than idiotic plans such as gasoline embargo that would help Khamenei, AN, and the IRGC. the real closest AN supporters are those who advocate for war, targeted bombing, broad-based sanctions, etc that will by every measure, help the military mafia in control of Iran's government and economy.
What I would love is for the likes of Maziar and Megan to provide ONE idea they would promote.
As for the members of Congress or NIAC being irrelevant - Kieth Ellison is a leader in the 80+ member progressive caucus in the House and the main sponsor of the STEP act and the IDEA act (both of which NIAC helped with I believe) - which calls for targeted sanctions on IRGC personnel - and for lifting of sanctions on technological products such as gchat, and other social networking technologies that the PEOPLE of Iran can use to organize.
NIAC has had 6-7 BIG conferences on the Hill, with such people as Dianne Feinstein (Chair of Sen. Intel Committee), Rep Jane Harmen (then Chair of House Intel com), Sen. Specter, Sen. Hagel, Sen. Lugar, Rep Waxman, Sen. Carper among many many many more. show me ONE other Iranian-American group that has put this much effort into actually engaging the American policy makers on Iran-related issues in an intelligent manner.
In an ideal world - we'd have dozens of Iranian-American groups doing these types of things - so we could all compare their work, their statements, and their actions and decide which path is best - but unfortunately NO other Iranian-American group has the spine to engage effectively on politics. weather its because they are afraid of the character assassination that groups like MKO and Dai will subject them to (like NIAC is now going through) or whether its because Iranian Americans are still incapable of engaging in the civil political process, I dont know.
but the fact is, the more people like Meagan and Maziar only snipe from the sidelines instead of doing something effective, our community will continue remain less relevant and less effective than it deserves to be.
And we will NEVER be able to help the Green movement of today nor the Green Movements of the future.
On the "divisive" Sahimi piece: Granted, I speak as an outside observer, but I think he's dead on with Sazegara and Makhmalbaf (esp. Sazegara). 22 Bahman should have ended Sazegara's credibilty for good. Makhmalbaf might mean well, but WAYYYYYYY oversells himself and makes policy remarks he's in no position to make.
The remarks on Ganji are... unfortunate, IMHO. You can disagree with Ganji's religion thoughts, but I find that to be seperate from the IRI's political mess. I get that religion and politics are interwoven in Iran, but Ganji's entitled to his religious views w/o having his motives (for Iranians) questioned.
On Mohajerani's appearance at WINEP, well, I think it was good for him to tell a neocon audience some truths, so I don't get his point here.
The Sadjadpour discussion is interesting. He does have a knack for saying different things to different crowds, but that just tells me he's a creature of Washington. Overall, though, his views/analyses are generally interesting.
Sahimi's right to be disdainful of neoconservatives. Their views have only hurt the US and the ME.
That said, in this case, his tone in the piece was a touch condemning, moreso than necessary, IMHO.
An activist Green Lurker,
The only time you come to EA is when your idol, Trita Parsi, and his motives are called to question. The only contribution you make to the discussion on EA is writing nonfactual assays in support of NIAC and your hero, Trita Parsi.
I cannot speak for Maziar but as for me you have no freaking idea what I do or do not do for Democracy Movement in Iran. So stop acting like a fool and do not try to silence people who express views you do not share. It seems the first thing you need to learn is the democracy itself where people have the right to express their views without being harassed or intimidated or accused of everything in your book.
I can respond to every false claim, every accusation, and every miss-information you have presented in your post. I, however, prefer not to dignify you and your remarks because you do not impress me as a reasonable person interested in respectful debate. And that is based on my past experience with you when you posted comments under a different handle (which you refuse to confirm or deny). As I said to you before you like cat fight, something I do not care for.
Incidentally, Lurker? That you certainly are. Green Activist? That is a joke. I suggest you try something more subtle like “Parsi Groupie Lurker”!
All this wishful thinking coming from people who have never even been to Iran. Talk about fantasy.
Megan,
your diatribe above proves my points about your attitude towards NIAC. You sit there complain about me passing judgment on your 'green credentials' yet you do not hesitate to impart whatever bogus ad-hominum attacks you so desire.
at least you admit that you dont want to engage me on any substantive points I made. and you are most welcome to express your viewpoints just as Samuel is. But you dont have a right not to be challenged on your views.
NIAC has its supporters and its detractors - I am indeed a supporter - and for good reason. NIAC has achieved more in its 8 short years of existence for the relevance and power of our community than 30+ years of fossilized expat thinking combined. so yeah, I'm a proud defender of NIAC and the work it does.
And as I said before in previous comments - you can have a justifiable difference with the position NIAC takes (ie that broad-based sanctions are BAD, that WAR is bad, and that neo-con prescriptions for US Iran-Policy are bad, that Human Rights should be on the table, that engagement is GOOD for Democracy in Iran, and that the US should not fall into the IRI's foreign policy traps)... if you like, you can argue with those points. however, individuals such as yourself decide NOT to argue the merits of NIAC's positions and instead type out unsubstantiated attacks on the group's "intent".
I should add, that in some cases, you have made yourself clear - and you take positions far more radical than the mainstream 'green' movement inside Iran. that is your right and prerogative for sure - but just because people done toe your line, does not make them supporters of the IRI. Maybe your maximalist approach is right... its even possible that in some alternate universe, your methods would bear fruit - however, you refuse to admit or want to realize that your method of challenging the IRI is indeed in the minority.
As for why I type here - I have followed and read EA since mid-June and I have personally been more involved than 95% of Iranian expats on actual activism (and I dont mean just twittering or commenting on blogs). I also happen to have a real family, a real life, and a real job (like most people) so I'm sorry if my low level of contribution on this blog's comment section does not meet with your approval. Tough. But it is precisely because I value this blog and its readership so much, that I take time to respond to slanderous and infantile attacks on NIAC when I have the time.
I guess I learned in 2004 from John Kerry that when one is being Swift Boated, one should respond swiftly. Unfortunately, I feel NIAC has just recently learned that lesson - and I will do my small part, on this blog, in countering the crap some people choose to spew.
I will say this - despite our differences on the question of NIAC and its contribution - I hold most of your comments and points of view in very high regard and often agree with your assessments. By challenging you on the issue of NIAC, I don't mean to imply that I challenge you as a person... it is just your unsubstantiated viewpoints that I challenge.
always V
I'm surprised to see the praise here for Sahimi. Are you guys aware of Sahimi's background? He admits to having beein in the MKO but still brags about his role in bringing down the Shah's government. He co-published a few articles with Shirin Ebadi after she won her nobel peace prize, and it later emerged that he published these pieces without Ebadi's permission and she was furious! You can check the story, a friend of mine who grew up w/ Ebadi told me. He is widely disliked among Iranians in California.
Dear Scott,
Do you know if the session organizers have left room in the agenda after each panel discussion to take questions from the floor?
Thanks,
Maria
http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2010/03/us-eases-restrictions-on-web-services-exports-to-iran-cuba.ars?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=rss
How is this going to affect Greens in Iran?? I can't quite understand it - as it is my understanding that services like Twitter and Facebook are already theoretically available for use by Iranians (but in practice are limited by poor access to the Internet itself) . It would be great if ordinary Iranians were all able to get their stories out to the world.
Barry
----(but in practice are limited by poor access to the Internet itself) . It would be great if ordinary Iranians were all able to get their stories out to the world.---
Thanks Scott and all aboard here - very balanced reporting/integrity.
Barry says it all in his post above
so long as there are ways to get the pics/news out to the rest of the world there is hope.
satellite broadband? wht else can/is being done so that this may be facilitated -
there has to be substantial ways round the censorship...
any ideas?
God is Love for One and ALL in Unity
R
On Sadjadpour and Sahimi's treatment of him, I think Sahimi was spot on. This is a guy who came to our classroom in Berkeley during the day and gave a pro-bomb Iran lecture, only to be on CNN that same week to express his opposition to any military attack. I lost respect for him that very moment - and I am shocked that it's taken this long for others to notice that his tendency of shifting positions.
What I don't understand with Sahimi's piece, though, is the criticism of Mohajerani. My read was that the reason he went to WINEP was because the leaders of the green movement in Iran had asked him to deliver a message. And he couldn't say no to that. But i could be wrong.
Damian: Are you sure you're being honest? See this account from a friend's weblog about Sadjadpour's lecture at Berkeley:
http://nazykaviani.blogspot.com/2007/04/karim-sajadpour.html
Last week I went to see Karim Sadjadpour[1] give a lecture at Berkeley. Karim Sadjadpour is an associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The Religion, Politics, and Globalization Program at UC Berkeley sponsored the event. Sajadpour is an articulate and approachable young man. He presented his analysis of what he thinks is happening in Iran. More than an academic presentation on the politics of Iran, I found his presentation insightful and loving of Iran and the people of Iran. He made sharp observations about the Iranian culture and how it affects political negotiations. The audience connected well with him, and he did an exceptionally good job of answering questions, which always makes me feel good at the end of a lecture. I am continually amazed with the younger generation of Iranians who live, study, and work abroad. They are free of the more intense emotions my generation seems to have about Iran, which could be a very positive thing. My generation was displaced and faced with hardships after the Revolution. This generation, however, were either born into the Islamic state, learning quickly how to navigate their way through its labyrinths of dual, public and private lives, or were born and raised outside of Iran, where they didn’t have to face the obstacles we, as first generation immigrants had to endure. As a generation, they are more objective and less emotional, which helps them be more focused on issues, and that’s important, I think. Sadjadpour was fair, confident, and affectionate towards both Iran and US, obviously preoccupied with finding a way out of the web of misunderstandings and misconceptions. I am glad for that preoccupation and believe that more people need to be preoccupied by the issue. This was a real treat for me
Too Funny,
I have had the privilege of going to Iran, teaching there, and making many friends. Most importantly, I have had the privilege of continuing to learn from those contacts and friendships. Since June, I have been even more fortunate to make new friendships with people inside the country. Fantasy come true, you might say.
Shireen Hunter, who is on my panel, has also been to Iran, and Professor Karimi-Hakkak was born, grew up, and established his academic career in Iran.
S.
Maria,
I believe that is the case.
S.
I'll definitely be making it, unless the number of bigwigs there is so large that my credentials are deemed insufficient! If anyone else thinks they'll be there and would like to make contact, please email or tweet (links above!)
Wooops .. that would be KevinScottDC@gmail.com and KevinScottDC on Twitter.
Supplementary commentary for the conference: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/patrick-disney/iran-at-a-crossroads_b_490000.html