Monday
Mar222010
Iran: View from Tehran "Changes within the System are Impossible"
Monday, March 22, 2010 at 4:55 
A reliable EA source passes on these insights from a well-placed contact:Today an Iranian friend called.
According to him, the Government did effectively scare the people by killing and arresting them and relentlessly summoning political activists or journalists to court. It also is promoting itself through intense propaganda.
Oppositional administrative structures are virtually destroyed, which was one of the reasons for the tohubohu [confusion] on 22 Bahman [11 February, the anniversary of the Revolution]. Nevertheless the people resist, and growing rifts are visible within the regime's body. The number of people, even very religious ones, who doubt the Government's pretentions, is growing day by day. Meanwhile many have realised that changes within the system are impossible, and even parts of the clergy favour a separation of state and religion.
He said "hormat-e hokumat shekast" (the ruler's honour is broken --- just think of people's reaction to the Supreme Leader's attempted fatwa on the ceremonies of Chahrshanbeh Suri). Apparently Ahmadinejad and his mafia possess documents relating to the Supreme Leader, which force Khamenei to abide by their wishes.
He deemed Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani's support for Rafsanjani as essential and favoured a tripartite tactic of oil sanctions, political challenge, and popular resistance to bring down this regime, even though it would be hard for the Iranian people. Without sanctions the govt would have enough income to maintain its pressure on dissidents, i.e., the Iranian majority.
This friend is very religious and has good contacts to the ruling classes. He reported also that Sepah [Revolutionary Guard] is smuggling money out from the country via Dubai.
Reader Comments (46)
Barry
Mesbah Yazdi is their mentor as a "gourou " in a secte .
Unfortunately, I do not know whether it is even realistic to think that Iran can be "democratic". We are about to see shortly whether Iraq will be (or can ever be) a democratic Republic.
There is more to democracy than simply people voting for their Government. There is also the aspect of winners and losers. In a true, mature Democracy, there will be winners and losers in political contests. The losing side understands this and accepts the results of the election. Winning can be a matter of a one vote majority.
In Iraq, is this possible?? Can people accept that this time they may not get what they want - and they have to work harder to get it next election?? I see too much corruption and manipulation for this to be possible. I am sorry to have to say it - but 30 years of Saddam in Iraq and 30 year of the Regime in Iran work against it. You can completely forget about places like Afghanistan - and even Russia really has no history of Democracy. It has taken hundreds of years for the British system of Constitutional Democracy to work so well ( excellent form of Government in places like Canada, New Zealand and Australia)
Barry
@Ange Paris
I understand the concept of mentor and guru :) - and I can understand how Yazdi may be the mentor of individuals like AH. But, Sepah is a huge organisation - cannot see how or even if Yazdi is mentor or entire Sepah. Does he have any sawy over Sepah.??
Barry
to follow up on your conversation of countries considered as a republic...so is china. The full name of china is The People's Republic of China.
A constitutional monarchy is a good system, somewhat akin to that of britain (and indirectly Canada with the governor general being the head of state technically).
...we cannot really compare outselves to Iraq though...we have a lot more (and stronger) infrasturcture available in Iran than exists in Iraq. We are farther ahead in the process than they are.
Iranian people and specially the new generations are a lot more secular than the Iraqis
Iranian people have much better democratic self-determination than the Iraqis. Iran has the most westernized population in the world and also one of the most educated one. Specially after the revolution, western life style have become the passion of most Iranians while the Iraqis are still stock in a millenium old battle between Shia and Sunni and Arab and non-Arab. Growing up in Iran under the current regime, I remember the conflict between ethnic minorities in Iran slowly faded away, specially after the Iran-Iraq war, many ethnic minorities dislocated and forced to move to other parts of the country and now the whole country is ready to unite under a democratic system. while some Iranian nationalist sometimes use anti-Arab slogans, I haven't witnessed any discrimination of Iran's Arab minority by the people.
We can all get along under a secular democractic system
I have to agree with all Kamran's comments.
Cyrus,
So you believe the majority are brainwashed cause they don't think the same way as you do!!!
Unless we find a way of agreeing on our common denominator (read Mousavi's 5-point plan), the regime will continue its ruling through our divide.
Kasra,
I agree with your comments to Armin. We can not forget about our mistakes of 31 years ago. The left organizations then wanted the collapse of Shah's government without having any alternative to replace it with (practically nothing), so they fall into Khomaini's hand and wished for Bakhtiar governments to collapse too. We have to always remember who we are, where we are and how far we can go today. Together we can do a lot of things, but we have be patient and move based on facts and not our dreams.
Kasra,
Iran is a nation that can be united and progress w/o the Sharia laws as the backbone of its constitution.
Mousavi is still loyal to Veleyate Faqih, something man made system and is neither a part of Islam nor any democratic platform
Even if you are a real Muslim and want to save Islam from collapse, you should support secularism. Shariatmadari, Montazeri and many other top clerics also expressed that separation of religion from politics is better for both country and religion itself
Anything type of oppression in Iran is justified under the name of religion. Only a small percentage of under 30 Muslim born Iranians any longer practice Islam
Now, what is the point of having a religious base government when the result will anti-religion?
50% of Iran's population are women. They don't have the most basic rights as human beings to wear head scarf or nt and Mousavi has never addressed that in his statements. (the majority of women before the revolution didn't wear hijab and never expected to be forced to wear hijab when IR came to power)
Now again, does hejab protect women? most prostitutes in Iran wear the heaviest hejab and work under the black chador
My point is, that there is not a single advantage in the IR gov to consider its reform. IRI is a the biggest failure in the Iranian history
Mousavi is only a symbolic leader of the green movement, the real leaders are the people and we had enough of an Islamic regime, we want it gone
...and let's not forget the fact that 60% of Iran's population is below the age of 30. That's a ridiculous number and could be either very good or very bad for the Iran, depending on the mindframe of the majority of that 60%. So far it seems like the young generation is more supportive of a more free and secular regime.
To DC's facts...perhaps it is simply a matter of time to see a "secular" government Iran if his assumption that the younger generations do have more secular tendancies (a point I believe to be valid). To the many comments above, esp Kamran, it may be a matter of what is acceptable in the short and mid term, while the current generation continues to age and develop into the next polticial force within the country. An evolution if you will...
With that said, not even as an expat, but as one who grew up in the US, want to see change in Iran and agree to an extent with comments like those made by Megan.
I too feel, like Bijan, such a change in the culture and political landscape of Iran is inevitable, the only issue being the length of time it takes for it to happen. I think it will take less time than what it took the revolution to come about simply due to the technology that currently exists (ie twitter, facebook, camera phones). Because of this express way of getting news out, the world will also be faster to react towards any sort of issue and turmoil as it grows stronger and louder. It is almost impossible to fully silence a group of people nowadays, unless there is a complete shutdown of all services (never will happen, they cannot shut down the internet completely).
Just an opinion.
Cyrus,
All the points you’ve made may by true, but I (an expat) can not prescribe what the people inside Iran should want or not want. I can not reject all intermediate solution, just because they don’t match my idealistic vision. A secular government might be the long term solution, but it is up to the people inside Iran to decide.
We should remain open to transitional solutions/compromises which would bring us one step closer to a free democratic Iran.
Bijan summarised it well.
Let’s give the people from remote villages as well as the religious and working-class families time to go through this learning process; A process which started to accelerate following the fraud election.
It seems EA's brainwashing is giving fruits. It is amazing that a lot of nonsensical fantasies have a come out of a story that could have quite easily been fabricated and we have only Scott's word for it. Having been an avid reader of his articles and flawed conclusions and his clear bias to supporting the 'softliners' within the even more corrupt & deep in the pockets of AIPAC than anything so far seen in IRI. I too have spoken to religious friends returning from Iran & they tell me how glad most people are that the government have restored peace & calm & prevented the overthrow of the IR system. They say most people think mistakes have been made by both sides & are condemn the Greens for rioting and disturbing public order. They think Mosavi and Karroubi were wrong in not putting their complaints forward to the Guardian Council when they were asked to & when the time limit was extended for them. They say many people believe that some green activists are working for foreign agencies & get paid handsomely for their efforts. They also think the SL has been too lenient with the 'seditionists' and should have been firmer. All in all they are saying the glass is half full but progress is being made to fill it up. Iran continues to make progress in many fields. So if Scott and his alleged informant friend are saying that the glass is almost empty then maybe they are looking at the wrong glass. But good luck to them one day they might just find the right glass!
Rezvan,
You should not believe that everybody, especially Scott Lucas and EA would copy IRIB or False News -- that is specific to your Supreme Liar and his crownies.
And then, if this story was really fabricated, why someone has to get so angry?
Admittedly the truth his hard to digest for people, who continue to deceive others and themselves.
Kasra, thank you for your reply. You made your points clear.
Rezvan,
I don't why I'm amazed but it seems there is not one website on the internet clear of IR internet observers/propaganda staff. Good to know who you are.
You're right rezvan, your glass IS half full, half full of poison. Just make sure your friends don't drink it too fast, it may be lethal.
Rezvan,
Oh boy, what a reply! Just like Armin, I am absolutely amazed.
To all the other,
Rezvan is representing a significant minority, with absolute power within the establishment. Their grassroots are from religious families and remote towns & villages (fortunately, less from the working class these days) with only access to the government’s media.
It just shows the sheer scale of the task in front of the Green movement.
Now let’s be honest with ourselves; Can we possibly win theses people’s hearts&minds and make the coup government’s circle of supporters smaller and smaller by offering grand ideas like the promise of a secular system?!?
But we can, if we remain peaceful and stick to our minimalist demands. The Greens have already substantially expanded its influence among these grassroots. I am sure one day in not so distant future, the coup gov’s boat will sink. Rezvan, of that there is no doubt. V
But what is the Green Movement really about. Does it have a doctrine or charter of some type? Most movements have one. The Situationist International had one. What is happening beyond strikes and street protests? The Green Movement seems a bit hollow, but maybe it is because I know little about the Greens.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Situationist_International
@Dave:
The green movement is a movement of the people of Iran. There are leaders but they are more passive than what one would normally see in such situations. The reason for that is that they do not want to dictate to the people what their views are but rather they want the people to be the leaders. It's because of this that there is yet to be a written doctrine. However, both Karroubi and Mousavi have released a list of demands that I think most Greens agree with.
I feel like the current passive way of doing business is the right way to go until things pick up a little more steam.
Kasra -
In my humble opinion the task at hand is not to draw in other groups (labor, religious, rural, womens movments, etc) into just the concept of a secular government, but rather to expand the green movement to be one that supports an umbrella concept such as providing an environment where the needs and wishes of the people are met and that the government is a tool to provide for these needs and wishes. As such, again in my humble opinion, the "leaders" of the green movement are challenged with the task to continue to build on what the green movement is today to be more encompassing and in doing so the movement will continue to mass into an unstoppable force with a capacity for significant influence.
To Rezavan's point...truth can dependend on ones point of view. I think we all can, for the spirit of debate, agree there are some in Iran that views are expressed in his statement. However, when that is an opinion held my a minority, in time, that minority will lose its influence and the majority will begin its ascention to power and control.