Iraq Election Watch: Bombings and Political Intrigues

As early voting begins in Sunday's national elections, Iraq has been beset by bombings: the toll from three suicide attacks in Baquba on Wednesday is now 33 dead and 42 injured, and a suicide bomber has killed three and injured 15 today at a Baghdad polling station.

Meanwhile, Juan Cole rounds up the latest political manoeuvres:

Al-Sharq al-Awsat says that it has gotten hold of an American intelligence document detailing undue Iranian influence in Iraq and in the Iraqi elections. The document says that Ahmad Chalabi and Ali al-Lami, influential members of the 'Jusice and Accountability Committee' in charge of purging Baathists from public life, met repeatedly with Iranian officials last fall. Among those they met were Qasim Sulaimani, head of the special forces Jerusalem (Quds) Brigade and the Iranian foreign minister. US Commanding General in Iraq, Ray Odierno, charged that Iran was behind the campaign to disqualify over 500 alleged Baathists from running in Iraq's March 7 parliamentary, and this document seems to lend some credence to the allegation.

Anxiety among US officials about Iran's influence, especially via militias such as the Asa'ib Ahl al-Haqq, is underlined by Washington Post today.


AP alleges that Iran is responsible behind the scenes for getting the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and the Sadr Movement form a coalition, the National Iraqi Alliance.

Trudy Rubin of the Philadelphia Inquirer asks if Iraq is really a democracy, and comes up with a resounding 'No!' She gives as evidence the repeated arbitrary arrests of a Sunni Arab young man who served as a whistle-blower on Shiite militia ethnic cleansing of Sunnis in his neighborhood. She also quotes Ali Allawi on the lack of effective checks and balances.

Early voting begins today in Iraq for members of the armed services, hospital patients, and others who are prevented from getting to the polls on Sunday. Nearly a million persons are expected to cast a ballot on Thursday.

Some newspapers are asking whether the Sunni Arabs will flex their muscles in this election.. They may, but only if they do not vote on a sectarian basis. If Sunnis can make themselves an indispensable constituent of secular parties supported by Shiite urban middle classes, they can get some leverage. Otherwise, Iraq's parliament at the moment has only one chamber, and electing explicitly Sunni Arab slates dooms them to insignificance, since they will only have a fifth of seats in parliament. Sunni Arabs in Iraq's parliament will always be outvoted on an issue of national significance.

In something less than a resounding vote of confidence in the electoral progress, the Shiite grand ayatollahs said Tuesday that they are genuinely afraid of ballot fraud in the March 7 parliamentary elections.

The Iraqi government is now saying that the appearance of the name of Muqtada al-Sadr on an arrest list was an error, and that no attempt will in fact be make to take him into custody. (Sadr is now studing in seminary in Qom, Iran.]

The Latest from Iran (3 March): Love and Hate

2015 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch: The family of journalist Emaddedin Baghi have visited him in prison. Baghi's wife Fatemeh Kamali  said, "Although he became weak, his spirit is very strong."

1920 GMT: P.S. Fatemeh Karroubi has said that she will file a lawsuit against the Iranian Press Supervisory Board for shutting down Iran Dokht magazine.

NEW Iran: Today’s Rafsanjani Watch — Clarity or Confusion?
NEW Iran Interview: The State of Tehran’s Nuclear Programme (Cirincione)
Iran Document: Women Activists Write Mousavi & Karroubi
Iran Analysis: The Mousavi Strategy “We Are Still Standing”
The Latest from Iran (2 March): Can The Regime Defuse the Crisis?

1900 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Fatemeh Karroubi, Mehdi Karroubi’s wife, has written an open letter to the Iranian nation after the closure of the magazine Iran Dokht and an attack on her home by plainclothesmen who threw eggs and tomatoes: "I should feel sorry for the country when its Government can’t even tolerate the only press that will critique it."


Karroubi declared, "It’s very disappointing that the Government pays a bunch of bullies to insult the family of the revolutionaries and the family of martyrs." She warned that the fundamentalist totalitarian movement, whose infiltration of the Government worried Imam Khomeini, was now trying to use any opportunity to slaughter the progressive principles of the Constitution.

Fatemeh Karroubi singled out Deputy Minister of Culture Mo-Amin Ramin, whom she claims called the Karroubi home and "threatened them with offensive language", including references to the execution of Mehdi Karroubi. She warned Ramin and his "like-minded allies" that they could never slaughter an idea and that their illegal and unusual behaviours are doomed.

1855 GMT: Defending the Journalists. The Committee to Protect Journalists and other organisations have started "Our Society will be a Free Society" to campaign for detained reporters.

1820 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch (cont.). Journalist Noushin Jafari and student Sina Shokouhi have been released.

1640 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Green Voices of Freedom reports that journalist Morteza Kazemian has been released.

An Iranian activist writes that journalist Reza Nourbakh, arrested on 4 August, has also been released on bail.

1600 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Today's statement of clarification from Hashemi Rafsanjani is so ambiguous that we had to give it a separate entry.

1150 GMT: Economy Watch. Hassan Rohani, a member of the Expediency Council and ally of Hashemi Rafsanjani, has warned that Iran could become an oil importer if its current policies and state of production continue.

1145 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Green Voices for Freedom reports that women’s rights activist Mahboubeh Karami was arrested at her home last night.

0935 GMT: MP Hajsheikh Alikhani has warned that, if necessary, the Iranian Parlaiment will impeach the Deputy Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance, Mo-Amin Ramin, to ensure his removal.

0930 GMT: Today's Top Tip. United Press International hands over space to Roger Gale, a British member of Parliament former vice chairman of the Conservative Party, to offer this suggestion:

Lifting the ban on the MeK (Mujahedin-e-Khalq, designated by the State Department as a "foreign terrorist organization") would allow the United States and its partners to negotiate with the regime from a position of strength if ever an opportunity did arise. And it would be a cost-free opportunity for the Obama administration to show some teeth to a pariah regime that understands only the language of force.

0915 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz posts that a French satellite provider is threatening to cut off Iranian state channels if Iran does not cease its "jamming" of broadcasts such as BBC Persian.

0825 GMT: RAHANA reports that Sharif University student Mehdi Kalari, detained on 7 December, has been sentenced to 2 1/2 years in prison.

0800 GMT: In the 1955 film Night of the Hunter, there is an iconic moment where the villain, played by Robert Mitchum, displays the tattoos on his hands to the camera. On one, "Love". On the other, "Hate".

I am not sure if "Love" and "Hate" are the appropriate words for the regime's efforts, but it is definitely showing two sides to its people. On Tuesday, there was news of more releases of detainees, but there were also the continuing crackdown on the press and the arrest of other activists and public figures. Latest news is of the arrest of another member of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters, Navid Khanjani.

The detention which attracted the most attention outside Iran was that of prominent film director Jafar Panahi after a Monday night raid on his house. It is unclear how many of the other 17 people in the house, including Panahi's daughter and wife and guests such as documentary maker Mohammad Rasoulof are also in custody.

Tehran chief prosecutor Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi was vague in explaining why Panahi, who was also briefly detained during 30 July demonstrations and has been barred from leaving Iran, is being held apart from declaring, "His arrest is neither related to his profession as an artist nor linked to political motivations." He did indicate,however, that this detention would not be brief, as the director's interrogation "has just begun".

Amongst Iranian activists, however, the display of regime force that is causing the most comment this morning is the alleged death sentence handed down on a post-election detainee, Mohammad Reza Valian. The 20-year-old university student appeared in court on 3 February, accused of crimes such as appearing at the 17 July Friday Prayer service led by Hashemi Rafsanjani, participating in Qods Day protests in September, and throwing stones on Ashura (27 December).

The report is still based on a single Green Movement source and the death sentence has not been announced by Iranian authorities.

Iran: Today's Rafsanjani Watch --- Clarity or Confusion?

Here are more quotes for thought --- be they thoughts of ambiguity, intrigue, or confusion --- from Hashemi Rafsanjani.

First, the background. Earlier this week Faezeh Hashemi, Rafsanjani's daughter, put out a spirited defence of her father's position as standing with the Iranian opposition. That defence has been recycled in Aftab News:

Under the present circumstances, any compromise is out of the question without taking into account people's rights and the damage inflicted on them. I ask everyone to be patient and let Mr Rafsanjani go ahead with his own method. Since the Green Movement and Mr. Rafsanjani share their demands, he could be a member of the Green Movement of the Iranian people.

Now the tricky part of "patience" with Mr Rafsanjani. Here is his latest statement, posted on his website:

The Constitutional Revolution [of the early 20th Century] may repeat itself and this is a real threat. The odds are that certain people are conspiring against the Islamic Republic in the name of supporting Islam, revolution and the system.

OK, so there should not be a Constitutional Revolution? And who are the "certain people" conspiring --- are they the officials of the Republic or those protesting against those officials?

About all that can be said firmly is that Rafsanjani is giving public backing to the Supreme Leader: "Without his intervention and in the absence of enough backing from all individuals and groups, we cannot be hopeful of any conclusion."

But even that leads to questions than answers: is Rafsanjani saying that he is happy to ally with the Supreme Leader, whatever may occur? Or is he giving the Supreme Leader a poke, "For goodness sake, Khamenei, do something about this situation?"

Iran Interview: The State of Tehran's Nuclear Programme (Cirincione)

Joseph Cirincione, the President of the Ploughshares Fund on nuclear weapons policy and conflict, talks to Claudio Gallo of La Stampa:

GALLO: Is Iran really trying to build a nuclear weapon?

CIRINCIONE: There is no doubt that the Iranian regime is moving to acquire the technologies that would allow it to build a nuclear weapon. We do not know if the regime has reached a decision to actually build a weapon, however.



It may make strategic sense for Iran to stop at the edge, that is, to have the uranium enrichment capability, to have secretly done design work, and to have a missile capable of carrying a warhead, but not actually build a bomb. This would give it many of the advantages of a nuclear-armed state, without provoking an attack and perhaps delaying its neighbors from reacting with their own nuclear weapon programs.

GALLO: Do you think that stress over Iran's negotiating position may point to the fact that its uranium stockpiles are ending?

CIRINCIONE: Iran does not have enough known uranium reserves to fuel its current enrichment plant at Natanz for very long. It certainly does not have enough to fuel the 10 new enrichment plants it claims it will build. But the most likely reason why the government first accepted, then rejected the uranium swap is that the regime is in crisis. It cannot get the consensus it needs to either accept or completely reject the deal.

GALLO: The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Ali Larijani, said recently that "based on terms of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the International Atomic Energy Agency has no right to urge Iran to suspend its nuclear activities". Why is the West saying that Larijani is not right?

CIRINCIONE: By its own admission, Iran misled the IAEA for over 15 years. It is clearly in violation of its obligation under the NPT to report its nuclear material activities and the existence of all its nuclear material facilities. The overwhelming majority of the nations that make up the IAEA board of governors and the UN Security Council found that Iran was and still is in violation of its treaty obligation. Under the terms of the treaty, the Security Council has the right --- in fact, it has the obligation --- to ask Iran to stop its nuclear activities until Iran's good faith can be restored. Few outside of Iran dispute this basic fact.

GALLO: In the last IAEA report, they quote an Iranian study about a nuclear missile warhead. It seems that the source of that report is the same stolen laptop that since 2005 appears at intervals on western newspapers: what do you think about this?

CIRINCIONE: This is the least clear claim. The documents on the laptop do seem to be the source of this claim. It still is not clear where the laptop came from. But Iran has yet to provide any clear answers to the IAEA. Iran has just refused to answer the IAEA's questions. This raises suspicions and seems to support the claim that Iran was doing such research.

GALLO: In May 2009, you were one of the experts, American and Russian, that wrote the report "Iran Nuclear and Missile Potential": it says that Iran, if it decides, may build a nuclear warhead in six to eight years. Is that conclusion still valid?

CIRINCIONE: Since we wrote the report, the time frame for Iran building a nuclear warhead has reduced somewhat. It could probably build a small nuclear bomb in 1-2 years. It would likely take an additional few years to test the device and perfect a warhead that could fit on one of its Shahab missiles. The main reason for the decreasing time frame is Iran's production of enough low-enriched uranium that could be reprocessed into high-enriched uranium for a bomb.

GALLO: And then there is the technical difficulty to build a working IRBM [Intermediate Ballistic Range Missile]....

CIRINCIONE: Iran now has short- and medium-range missiles that can travel as far at 2000 km. It is a major challenge to build a IRBM that could fly 3000-5500 km. This is currently beyond Iran's technical capability.

GALLO: Recently on The Huffington Post, the former Deputy Director General of the IAEA, Bruno Pellaud, wrote that Iran's regime is consciously provoking an attack against nuclear facilities. Do you think it is possible?

CIRINCIONE: The regime is in turmoil. It is not clear how long it can survive. The Revolution Guard would like to change this dynamic. It is possible that the Iranian Revolution Guard is trying to provoke Israel into striking Iran. This would allow them to rally the Iranian public in defense of the nation.

GALLO: President Ahmadinejad said that Israel will attack Iran in spring or summer: do you think that Israel could attack without the American green light?

CIRINCIONE: Possibly, but very unlikely. The US military does not want to start a third war in the Middle East. JCS [Joint Chiefs of Staff] Chairman [Admiral Mike] Mullen said this week that such an attack would have "unintended consequences".

GALLO: Russia's Chief of the Army Staff, General Nikolai Makarov, warned that an American attack on Iran now, when the US is bogged down in two wars, might well lead to the collapse of the United States. Is this an old-style Russian "provokazia" [provocation] or it makes some sense?

CIRINCIONE: Not the collapse, but great turmoil, and it may unite the Muslim world against the US. Many Muslim governments would like to see the US strike Iran, but the Muslim publics would likely be enraged.

The Latest from Iran (2 March): Can The Regime Defuse the Crisis?

2200 GMT: An Ashura Death Sentence? We are following reports that a 20-year-old university student has been sentenced to death as "mohareb" (warrior against God) for demonstrating on Ashura (27 December). We want to ensure confirmation without doubt before posting the details.

1955 GMT: Another Journalist Freed. Etemaad journalist Keyvan Mehregan, arrested just after Ashura (27 December), has reportedly been released from detention.

1945 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Fars News, quoting Iranian Minister of Justice Murtaza Bakhtiari, says a criminal case has been filed against Hashemi Rafsanjani's daughter, Faezeh Hashemi, and his son Mehdi Hashemi.

I'm sure this has nothing to do whatsoever to do with Faezeh Hashemi's interview yesterday, in which she declared that Hashemi Rafsanjani stood with the Green Movement.

NEW Iran Document: Women Activists Write Mousavi & Karroubi
NEW Iran Analysis: The Mousavi Strategy “We Are Still Standing”
The Latest from Iran (1 March): In Like a Lion?

1645 GMT: Apologies that updates will be limited until later this evening. Off to talk to a seminar about "Green Tweets: US Foreign Policy, Post-Election Iran, and New Media".


1325 GMT: The Detained Filmmaker. More on last night's arrest of Jahar Panahi after a raid on his house. Jafar Panahi and his whole family abducted by plainclothes men from home early this morning, searching it for 5 hours, taking away comp and personal objects, Rah-e-Sabz has an interview with Panahi's son Panah, who was not at home:
The local police station, contacted by neighbours, allegedly replied that they cannot do anything against plainclothes men who belong to security forces.

1210 GMT: A True (and Important) Media Story. Ten minutes ago, during a break in class, I was speculating to an EA correspondent, "The Government will suspend publications like [the reformist newspaper] Etemaad. But look for new Green websites to spring up." Five minutes ago, I received this from an EA source.

Looks like Bahar, the recently unbanned paper with former Etemade Melli and Sarmayeh staff --- have fixed their website. Perhaps the Etemaad web folks came over and helped? This might be the new reformist paper.

Iran Dokht was not "Karroubi"-affiliated as much as a great variety of the various reformist strands with sections on politics, economy, history, culture, film, etc. every week.

1055 GMT: Silencing the TV Star. Actor and Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting presenter Valid Jalilvand, host of the country's best-known religious programme, has reportedly been suspended for expressing his political views after the Presidential vote.

1050 GMT: Silencing the Filmmaker. Kalemeh reports that Iranian security forces have detained film director Jafar Panahi. Panahi was held at his home with his wife Mahnaz Mohammadi, daughter,and 15 guests on Monday evening. His home was searched and some of his belongings seized.

Last month, Iranian authorities prevented Panahi from traveling to the Berlin Film Festival.

1030 GMT: Iranian activist Shadi Sadr is one of 10 women honored by the State Department's International Women of Courage Award. (Read Sadr's speech at the United Nations on Abuse, Justice, and Rights)

1010 GMT: Hmm.... The pro-Larijani Khabar Online features an interview with Mohammad Salamati of the reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party and gives him the space to make a vigorous defence of the opposition movement on 22 Bahman:

People from various layers of Iranian society attended the rally. All reformist parties had earlier made statements encouraging people to participate at the event....

It was not necessary for the government to create an intense security ambiance. Why some attacked Mahdi Karroubi and targeted the car of Mohammad Khatami?.... When such figures come to the scene, people are encouraged and moved to join the national events and feel that they are united....

I would say why those who raid top reformists figures are immune from investigation and prosecution. People should know about that. As a political activist, Mousavi has to expose the reality. The problem lies within the groups which committed these acts. Those who are behind such aggressions must be accountable.

1000 GMT: We have posted a letter from Iranian women activists to Mousavi and Karroubi, asking them to ensure that women's rights are recognised and promoted in the challenge to the Government.

0910 GMT: First, a clarification of yesterday's tagline, "In Like A Lion". The saying that March comes "in like a lion and goes out like a lamb" was taught to me as a boy, and so as we began yet another "Western" month covering this crisis, I wondered if those who said the Green Movement was no longer roaring were correct. To be precise, I thought that proclamation of the opposition's demise was far from certain; the more interesting issue was whether the regime could turn the Green lion into a lamb.

And so today we begin with an analysis and an observation. The analysis is of Mir Hossein Mousavi's Saturday statement. I think it is being mis-read by some as a vague -- and thus flawed --- statement of strategy. It is not. It is a declaration that, after the disappointment of 22 Bahman (11 February) and the attempts by the regime to crush it, the opposition still stands.

Just as interesting, however, is what appears to be a new regime approach to de-claw the Green Movement once and for all. Since last week, a series of prominent detainees --- notably journalists but also political advisors --- have been freed, usually on bail, even as others have been sentenced. Mr Verde steps in to help me out with the interpretation:

The release of prisoners is to lessen the pressure on the Supreme Leader. Although these people will be out of prison, they will still be the Islamic Republic’s prisoners: having posted large bails, they can be put back in jail anytime and the bail can be revoked with no reason. So these people are less dangerous for SL than before they went to prison. (With the exception of Behzad Nabavi, who gave interviews and conducted meeting when he was released, the rest have been quiet --- and Nabavi went back to jail.)

Then there is another aspect of the possible strategy, the banning of newspapers and journals which included a Karroubi magazine and the big "reformist" daily Etemaad and is continuing today:

I think the banning of the press is the long term policy of SL and Ahmadinejad camp. They know how dangerous the free flow of information would be. That’s why the bussed in foreign press to cover Ahmadinejad’s speech on 22 Bahman and beat people to keep them away from Azadi Square. So now you expect them to shut the press....

The Supreme Leader is trying to hold things together. The problem is that he has lost a lot of his credibility and acceptability since June. Put this next to the contradictory actions, and it could be further indication of trouble behind the scenes.

And so it is another day of watching the lions....