Afghanistan Analysis: Karzai 2, Obama 1 (Cole)

Juan Cole writes in light of Afghan President Hamid Karzai's visit to Afghanistan:

Afghanistan is already beginning to defeat Barack Obama.

He came into office last year clearly hoping to find a way to move Hamid Karzai, the mercurial and ineffectual president of Afghanistan who only controls some 30 percent of the country, out of office in favor of someone more capable as a leader. Perhaps he had in mind the way the US allied with Kurds, Sunnis, and other Shiites to dump Ibrahim Jaafari as prime minister of Iraq in the first months of 2006.

Afghanistan: Revealing the US “Black Site” Prison at Bagram (Fisher)

But Karzai fought back with all his considerable local resources, arranging to steal the presidential election of August 2009 and then to behave so extravagantly that he discouraged his only major challenger, Abdullah Abdullah, from even mounting a run-off challenge. The breathtaking boldness of this blatant set of slaps in the face of Washington and other international patrons astonished UN diplomat and former US ambassador Peter Galbraith, who went public with his criticisms of Karzai and got himself summarily fired.


Even as Karzai was stealing the election and shoring up his power by depending on his brothers and on cronies (who have been accused by some high US officials of being a drug cartel), he was continuing to reach out behind the scenes to his primary internal enemies, the old-time mujahidin (Gulbadin Hikmatyar’s Islamic Party militia in the Pashtun East and the Haqqani Network of Jalal and Siraj Haqqani) and the Old Taliban of Mulla Omar. The US was opposed to such contacts, and some US military personnel saw Karzai’s negotiations with people who were actively attempting to kill American soldiers little short of treasonous.

In contrast, Obama’s plan for Afghanistan was a massive counter-insurgency effort, including the adding of tens of thousands of new troops and hard war fighting aimed at taking and holding vast swathes of territory. It is an audacious plan and its chance of success is about 10%. It is more or less opposed by Karzai, who expressed himself lukewarm about the first major demonstration project in Marjah, the success of which is still questionable.

Obama had tried and failed to dislodge Karzai by disparaging him, had opposed Karzai’s negotiations with insurgents, and had imposed on the reluctant Karzai and enormous new military occupation of his own power base in the Pashtun West.

Relations got so bad that a few weeks ago Karzai threatened to go over to to the Taliban.

This week in Washington, Obama finally backed down. He feted Karzai and made sure he felt wanted. He acquiesced in Kabul’s outreach to the insurgents. He reconfigured his troop escalation as helpful pressure on the guerrillas to force them to the negotiating table.

Karzai mostly won, though he hadn’t gotten the hated counter-insurgency plan cancelled and could still see his beloved Qandahar invaded and occupied by the white Christian Westerners this summer. Still, Obama’s own plans for Afghanistan lay in tatters as he is forced to face the harsh limits on US capacity to shape a huge, craggy, tribal country half way around the world.

Radio Azadi reports in Dari Persian that Afghanistan’s independent human rights commission was disappointed that the communiques coming out of the White House and Karzai’s office about the meetings in Washington did not foreground the welfare of the actual people of Afghanistan, or human rights in that country, or improvements in the position of women.

PBS Newshour has video which is, as usual, professional. But the title, “Obama, Karzai Renew Pledge to Continue Fight Against Al-Qaida in Afghanistan,” drives me crazy. There is no al-Qaeda to speak of in Afghanistan and that organization is irrelevant to the social and political struggles in that country. Obama himself continues to frame whatever it is he thinks he is doing in that country in those terms, which does not inspire confidence. But why would among our best foreign affairs programs fall for that rhetoric?

Turkey Inside Line: Ankara & Russia Press Israel on Hamas Issue

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Turkish President Abdullah Gul, speaking in Ankara, dared to raise a sensitive point for Israel: the inclusion of Hamas into indirect talks. Gul said:

Nobody should be excluded when these talks are held. Unfortunately the Palestinians are divided in two. They must be united and to unite them there must be talks with both sides. The Hamas side won elections in Gaza and so cannot be ignored.

When Turkey talked [with Hamas] it faced threats but it emerged that Turkey was right. You cannot achieve peace by excluding people.

Turkey Inside Line: Opposition Leader Resigns, Turkish-Russian Relations & More
Israel Analysis: The Expansion of Construction in Jerusalem

Medvedev added, "We are facing a human tragedy in Gaza."


Both leaders saw practical advantage in their emphasis on "the necessity" of Hamas's inclusion in Washington-brokered talks.. The bargaining power of both Russia and Turkey can be strengthened in the Washington-Tehran-Tel Aviv triangle and the Damascus-Tel Aviv relationship.

During his visit to Syria, Medvedev talked to Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal and told him to reach a settlement in the Gilad Shalit case, freed the detained Israeli soldier quickly.

Iran Transcript: Mousavi "Do Iranian Mothers Have Rights?" (12 May)

Mir Hossein Mousavi, speaking with families of political prisoners on Wednesday. Translation from the Facebook page supporting Mousavi:

Issuing visas and letting the mothers of these three individuals [US hikers detained in Iran since summer 2009] is very good and this is the right of these mothers and we agree with this, but the problem is whether this right is also considered for the Iranian mothers as well....

If this issue is analyzed, we would be able to enlighten ourselves on the reason for our lack of development in the economy and domestic and foreign politics, for these cases are all following each other and are related.....

In the past year the role of women and mothers in analyzing and considering the main issues of the country has been very high....

Our movement is a peaceful movement. It is not after violence. A year since it was born, one can judge how important it has been for the movement to denounce violence. This movement has been against terrorism and killing from the very beginning because this movement is a deep and comprehensive movement....


We neither have weapons; nor do we want to have any. We condemn terrorists, regardless or the group, nationality, ethnicity, or culture they belong to. We came to the scene with dialogue, with the slogan of “Where Is My Vote?”. We came with logic, and the more we stay logical, we turn the course for the benefit of the movement. Our asset is to strongly persevere with our demands....

Our goals were the outcome of the issue that occurred at that time [the Presidential election], and people came to the scene to get their votes back. When they were repressed, and people analyzed and studied the issue, people’s demands, not accidentally or out of anger but because of the analysis and considerations that happened in the society, were extended....

People have realized that there have been some problems in the society, and one of these problems caused them to take to the streets and unite. To help unify these massive number of people, we demanded the full implementation of the Constitution....

People voted for the Constitution so that it would be implemented fully, not that some parts of it such as the freedom of press and freedom of assembly would be ignored entirely. One cannot only consider part of the Constitution and ignore the rest of it. This makes the whole Constitution meaningless.

When the Constitution is implemented in the country, one administration cannot dismiss all the managers of the country in a short period of time and replace them with its own friends and relatives. A financial corruption case cannot be opened and discussed in the parliament, with even the head of the judiciary talking about it, but then after a while we witness that the case is closed in an unusual way and then there would be no discussions and talks about it again....

Does the judiciary move toward independence today? Did the judiciary regarding the recent accused [five Iranians executed on Sunday] move in this path? Is the judiciary controlling the security forces, or it is the security forces that are controlling the judiciary? Are the sentences which judge an issue based on justice or they are based on some other considerations? In that case, why is one person is sentenced to several years in prison only because of participating in a peaceful protest, while in that peaceful protest millions participated? All these [matters] question the justice of the judiciary system.....

Any form of freedom in the country depends on the existence of free media, the reform in even the smallest organizations, and the moral matters of the society....

How is it that an Islamic country that claims to have had Cultural Revolution and in which we talk about spirituality and purity has the highest number of executions? The problem in not with individuals. The problem is that we governed the country in such a way that we reached to these numbers....

Even the guiltiest of people have human dignity and must be punished comparable to the offense they have committed. Their families and their dignities should not be attacked because otherwise their rights will be violated.....

This is what unfortunately is happening today in our country. Now your brothers and loved ones are in prisons without any guilt because they didn’t have unreasonable demands but were arrested. This is not the end of it....There are tortures; there are forced confessions, and outside [prisons] there are attacks on the families. It is the right of the families to know where their children, their loved ones, are imprisoned and how they are doing, but this right of theirs has been violated.....

These events show how violent they have become in the society; all to satisfy their special interests....

Is hosting a banquet for the members of the [United Nations] Security Council in such a situation going to solve our problems? Wouldn’t it make the government more powerful if it would have the backing of the people? Given the turbulent condition of the area, wouldn’t it better for the government to hear the people and achieve a national unity? Which one is better? Increasing the pressure and building new cells in Evin Prison despite the slogan of the early days of the revolution which was for eliminating the Evin Prison, or hearing and working with the people?...

We expected that the government before anything else would consider the situation of the suffering families and follow up on the crimes committed [after the election], not accuse Israel for one and US for another one. This approach only increases the problems of the country. It was not supposed that we rule the people, it was supposed that people would rule us. It was supposed that the transfer of power would happen with people’s will and continuously. One should be concerned of a time when it is thought that the solution is a continual repressing, pressuring and restricting of the [political] atmosphere.

Iran Document: A Letter from Majid Tavakoli About the Executed (11 May)

Student activist Majid Tavakoli, detained since 7 December, writes about his prison companions, Farzad Kamangar, Ali Heidarian, and Farhad Vakili, three of the five Iranians executed on Sunday:

They announced that Ali was being sent to ward 209. The phones in the halls were disconnected. I tried to call from the phone in my hall, but that too was disconnected.

When we went upstairs, Farzad said that they had announced that he too will be moved to ward 209, but it turned out to be a lie, as they ended up moving him to ward 240.

The announcement on Saturday afternoon had worried all of us. They usually announce the executions for political prisoners on Saturdays. An intense sadness took over my body, but Farzad kept saying that nothing was going to happen. He said they were only going to ask him a few questions. He knew what was awaiting him, but as always, he had a positive attitude and tried to make the best of the situation.



It was hard to believe. Until moments before, we were in the library together. Ali had stopped playing volleyball. He had washed his face and was getting ready. It was very difficult and painful. It was around this time every day, after Ali had worked out, that he would come over so we could study physics together. He intended to take the last two exams left so he could receive his diploma in June.

He had such high spirits that no one could ever believe that he was on death row. If you had a hard time believing Ali’s predicament, then it was impossible to fathom Farzad’s. He too was preparing for the university exams. The story of his engagement and wedding were also so heartfelt. It broke my heart when I thought about the courage of the young girl who was so taken by Farzad’s attitude and spirit that she married a person on death row.

It wasn’t the first time that I was witnessing my friends in this state. It was the summer of 2008 and I had met with friends in Evin prison’s ward 209. The first person I saw after my days in solitary confinement was Farhad. He was sharing the drawings of his young child. His incredible determination was a great inspiration to all of us. After a while, I also met Ali and Farzad. Ali always exuded calmness and Farzad was a solid pillar amongst us. He represented an entire nation alone and he stood proud and tall. He was always happy. he laughed and was hopeful, despite the hardships, the humiliation, the physically-grueling interrogations, and the unjust sentences by the Revolutionary Court. I was once again witnessing him in that similar predicament.

It was during the Sanandaj arrests that Farzad was transferred to Evin prison for the second time. He was wearing a neck brace, his shoulder was dislocated, and his teeth were broken, but his determination was stronger than ever.

When they transferred Ali and Farzad from Rajai Shahr prison to Evin’s ward 240 for execution, their presence in section 7 was excuse enough for those of us who were in section 8 to try and visit them regularly.

As they sat in solitary confinement waiting for the arrival of 4:00am, I was weak and on hunger strike. I was fully aware of why they had been transferred and I was unable to do a thing. Farzad kept encouraging me. He would say that everything is going to be okay and Ali continued to be calm, despite all the hardships.

During all the days when I was free, the uplifting meetings with Farzad and listening to his warm voice were a source of strength for my mother. It made me realize that a human being can achieve anything, even in the worst circumstances. But they killed my older brother, a Kurdish brother whom I loved with all my heart. He was my brother and my teacher- a teacher who represented resistance. He was someone who represented all of Iran’s children. I learned from him the ABC’s of resistance against the worst form of torture, deceit, and false accusations against people. I learned the role that faith plays in a person’s life when they face such hardships. I came to the realization that continuous visits to interrogation rooms and the narrow halls of solitary confinement may defeat your body, but they will never make you surrender or take away your soul, your thoughts, and your opinions. He was my teacher. He was a teacher who taught me to always smile and said that regardless of our differences, we can treat everyone humanely with the respect they deserve.

Now he is gone. He was unwilling to say goodbye and kept repeating, “I will see you tomorrow.” He didn’t let me embrace him and kept repeating, “I will see you tomorrow.” I know that he took those courageous steps together with his friends as he approached his final destination. He promised repeatedly to never allow the hatred of tyranny to break his spirits and remove the stool from underneath his feet. He promised to remove the stool from underneath his feet by himself. He never allowed the long reaching arms of tyranny to take his life. I am certain that he kept his promise. I am certain that he also smiled in the face of death – a heroic smile that has left us, but will remain eternal.

He and his innocent friends are gone, but their memories will live on forever. He left knowing that he was a good person and became an eternal teacher- a teacher who now represents resistance in the history books. He is a pillar of hope. He is an ever-lasting encouragement and beacon of light for all those who seek freedom. He is no longer with us, but we can still remember his memory. We will remember the time when the Ministry of Information was forced to kneel in front of the spirit of an entire generation; a Ministry of Information that will finally be forced to confess to its crimes so that when there are arrests after Farzad’s, the summer of 2008 is never repeated in Evin’s ward 209.

They had removed the airway passages and taken away our mail box. They believed that they could silence our spirits, but Farzad kept smiling in protest, demonstrating that we will stand strong and tall forever.

They took the hostages in order to demonstrate that they are tired of our resolve. But our friends showed that the power of tyranny is nothing in comparison to the strength and resolve of the brave children of Kurdistan. Farzad always stated that his interrogator said, “You are laughing in our faces when you continue to study and plan to marry.”

Farzad, Ali, and Farhad’s fighting spirit was incredible. I sit today in the memory of a few friends who were more than just a few. Farzad was a nation to himself, Ali was a great friend to all, and Farhad was a mountain of strength. Farzad was such an inspiration that when we were feeling depressed and down, even though he was ordered to stay away from other political prisoners, knowing that he was present brought hope to all those in section 7. I would use any excuse to go to the library, even for a few hours, just to be next to Farzad.

Even though Farzad left us hopeful for the future, he was nevertheless disappointed about a few things. He regretted the fact that a group of people want to confiscate everything and arrest everyone. He was writing a letter entitled, “I am an Iranian. I am an Iranian from Kurdistan.” His goal was to express the fact that even though being a Kurd meant being subjected to oppression and deprivation, the plight of the Kurdish people with regards to their ethnicity was an important one. He tried very hard to bring attention to the challenges in Kurdistan and the issues associated with ethnicity and minority rights. He was worried and sad until the last moments, that because of differences in opinion, attention would not be paid to the ethnic and human rights of the Kurdish people.

He was an offspring of the people of Kurdistan and worried about their fate. When he left us, he would have wanted someone to assure him that his ideals and lessons will bear fruit one day. He wanted everyone to know that if the violence, deprivation, and oppression in Kurdistan does not end, many more innocent people will become hostages and be arrested under false accusations, just like he was.

Oh, how evil is tyranny when it is fearful that it will no longer be able to commit crimes- The crimes that lead Farzad to teach us to resist? They feared his smile and perseverance and that is why they disconnected the phones.

It was this fear that led them to cancel any gatherings and distribute sweets and dates. It was this fear that led them to insist that we not talk of him, even though nothing they said stopped us from keeping his memory alive and strong. It was this fear that led them to resort to martial law. It was this fear that led them to shout that they had executed terrorists, when everyone was fully aware that those executed were not terrorists. They are fully aware that there were no bombs involved. They know how they lied to incriminate Farzad. They also know why they sentenced him. Even though they killed him, they were unable to destroy his spirit. Because his death allowed us to realize that tyranny can never take away the children of our nation without paying a price.

Today I went to the library once again. Farzad and Ali were not there. Farzad was not there to tell me about past memories and our friends. He was not there to bring back hope, to sit with me and discuss ways to end this suffering and tyranny. He was no longer there so we could talk about the possibility of a bright future and sing a song of freedom.

Ali was not there to bring calm and serenity to the library as we sat leafing through the books. Even though they were not there, the memories of Farzad, Ali, and Farhad remained strong. I promised Farzad I would not cry as it would only glorify oppression and tyranny. But I want my brother Farzad to know, that like all the other children of this nation, I have made a vow to never forget him and continue his cause for freedom.

Majid Tavakoli
Evin Prison
May 11,2009

Israel Analysis: The Expansion of Construction in Jerusalem

Although Israel has not approved any new housing plans, the building of hundreds of apartments that were previously approved has proceeded since the crisis over Ramat Shlomo erupted in March.

Cabinet Secretary Zvi Hauser said on Monday that construction of new housing for Jews in east Jerusalem will press forward. He told Army Radio:

Middle East Inside Line: First Indirect Israel-Palestine Talks; Israel Warns Iran; West Jerusalem’s Economic Win

Building is expected to begin soon in Har Homa....and Neve Yaakov, where (construction) bids have been issued. Building in Jerusalem is continuing according to its regular pace.

Israeli Cabinet Minister Dan Meridor said Israel could not accept a "discriminatory" policy that barred Jews from living in certain parts of the city. But he said "the policy of the government will try to be wise".

On Tuesday, in a telephone conversation with Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas, President Barack Obama pledged his commitment to the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state and vowed to hold both Israel and the Palestinians accountable if either side tookk actions that "undermine trust" during U.S.-mediated talks.

Public Security Minister Yitzhak Aharonovitch on Wednesday said that Israel will demolish Palestinian homes in East Jerusalem in the coming days despite the renewal of indirect peace talks and added, "As of right now, there is no directive for police not to implement the demolition orders."

In a speech to mark Jerusalem Day, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to continue Israeli construction across the city. He said, "The struggle for Jerusalem is a struggle for truth." Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat added:

We will continue to build in all parts of Jerusalem. The promise of a future Jerusalem with a Jewish majority is a strategic mission for all of us.

Later, Netanyahu said Israel plans to prioritize Jerusalem over other areas. He continued:

Jerusalem" and its alternative Hebrew name "Zion" appear 850 times in the Old Testament, Judaism's core canon. As to how many times Jerusalem is mentioned in the holy scriptures of other faiths, I recommend you check.

There is no undercutting, nor do I intend to undercut, the connection of others to Jerusalem. But I do confront the attempt to undercut and warp or obfuscate the unique connection that we, the people of Israel, have to the capital of Israel.