After Mumbai: Assessing The Threat

Security expert Bruce Schneier has taken issue with the FBI's recent warning that 'al-Qaeda' might be planning to attack the New York subway system this Thanksgiving:

I have no specific details, but I want to warn everybody today that fiery rain might fall from the sky. Terrorists may have discussed this sort of tactic, and while there is no evidence yet that it's in the process of being carried out, I want to be extra-cautious this holiday season. Ho ho ho.

My gut reaction is to agree with him- the announcement seemed like fear mongering at worst, ass-covering at best. But my question is, after Mumbai, do we have the luxury of disregarding such warnings? I don't believe for a minute that the same group who attacked Mumbai is capable of attacking New York, but last night's events were a reminder of just how terrifyingly effective asymmetric warfare can be.

As one Twitter user put it, "Apparently 'highly coordinated' now maps to 'bunch of guys with watches set to the same time.'" How can New York, Mumbai, or any other city, legislate for a group of men armed with light weapons and synchronised watches?

[photo via keerthi]

Mumbai Latest (7:30 p.m. local time; 2 p.m. British time)

Twenty-one hours after the first attacks and stand-offs continue at the Taj and Oberoi Hotels. The Times of India reports all hostages released at the Taj, and CNN International is reporting 10 hostages released at the Oberoi. Five attackers and 14 policemen are reported dead, and The Times of India says more bodies are in the Taj Hotel.

As the stand-off moves to resolution, attention will turn to responsibility for the attacks. Right now, the media is spinning with frustration that they have nothing beyond the claim of the shadowy "Deccan Mujihadeen". While some journalists are speculating --- I think with little evidence --- about an Al Qa'eda assault, I suspect that Canuckistan's comment on a Pakistan connection may be far more important. In the context of the downward spiral in Pakistan, a renewal of Indo-Pakistani conflict, either between Government forces or between India and Pakistan-based insurgent groups, is cause for concern.

The P Word

The conflict is still continuing in Mumbai. Once events are settled, questions will quickly be asked about who supported these attacks. Already the Indian prime minister has talked about "external" forces. Based on previous events, attention will be played to any official or unofficial Pakistani involvement in these attacks. If these links exist, it will have rather significant implications for Indian-Pakistani relations and, of course, for the United States and the wider "war on terror."

Latest from Mumbai (1:17 p.m. local time; 7:47 a.m. in Britain)

Not much change in a tragic and tense situation. Struggling for new information, broadcast news organisations are filling time with eyewitness accounts, especially from those who were in the Taj and Oberoi hotels, and comments from experts who really have little to add.

More than 100 dead and more than 300 injured. The Times of India, relying on Indian military sources, says four terrorists are still inside the Taj Hotel, along with 40 to 50 trapped guests. Twitter feed indicates explosions and gunshots at Oberoi Hotel.

While the conflict continues, it is unclear who is behind the attacks. The "Deccan Mujihadeen" have claimed responsiblity. Given the level of coordination and range of targets and given that no security services have previously known of the group, it is unlikely that they are the culprits.

Mumbai Attacks: 80 Dead, 900+ Injured, 40 Hostage

The Times of India reports that the coordinated attacks targeted hotels, hospitals, railway stations, cinemas, and a large market. The head of state the anti-terror squad is among the dead.

Attackers are still inside a hospital and holding hostages in two five-star hotels, Twitter reports indicate a rescue attempt to free hostages at the Taj Hotel.

An unknown group called the Deccan Mujahideen have claimed responsibility for the attacks.