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Wednesday
Nov052008

Live Blog: Waiting for the Official President-Elect Moment

3:37 a.m. For the love of Ted Turner --- instead of the projection, CNN pulls out another party trick with a hologram Capitol. It's basically a 21st-century version of the BBC's long-established, long-loved not-hologram reproduction of the House of Commons. But John King is no Peter Snow.

King is competent enough to say the Democrats may get to 58 (7 gains) but difficult to get to 60 (9 gains). That repeats what we've projected. The stinger, which we like, is whether the Democrats --- with the comfort of their majority --- will boot Joe Lieberman out of their caucus.

3:35 a.m. Wolf is talking about the Senate races, which we've already summarised.

Where's that projection you promised? I'm hoping Jennifer Yellin/Princess Leia returns and kicks your backside.

3:30 a.m. Narrow lead for McCain in North Carolina and he looks safe in Indiana. Obama up by 50,000 votes in Virginia and solid 51-49 lead in Florida.

It looks like North Carolina will make the difference between a 353-185/338-200 victory for Obama.

3:24 a.m. CNN gives Mississippi to McCain. Guys, I'm telling you --- I need Virginia and Florida.

On cue, Wolf says, "Stay tuned. We'll be back with some big projections."

You loser.

3:21 a.m. Wolf gives us that promised projection: McCain takes Texas. Wow. If you're going to big this up, it better be Florida or Virginia.

"Two senior McCain aides" are admitting to CNN that "no way back" in the race. Apparently Sarah Palin is also backstage in Arizona --- might be worth staying awake to see if she glams up for the concession speech.

3:20 a.m. We missed this but, in a highly symbolic race, Republican Chris Shays has lost in the House race in Connecticut. For those opposed to the war in Iraq, that's a big win given Shays' ardent support for the US intervention; it also removes the last Republican Representative in New England.

3:18 a.m. CNN wizard Bill Schaeffer is finally overcoming his charts and being a bit useful. He's noting that McCain has performed less well than Bush with the Hispanic-American vote (30 percent vs. 40 percent in 2004). We had suspected that was the case, clinching states like New Mexico for the Democrats and putting Republicans in trouble in other places (even McCain's Arizona).
Wednesday
Nov052008

Live Blog: A Quick Glance at the Senate

In case we wrap up the blog for a few hours after Obama passes the magic 270 mark, here's an update and what to watch with the Senate:

The Democrats have picked up 4 of the 7 seats we thought they would gain. Those are in New Hampshire, North Carolina, Virginia, and New Mexico. That leaves three races still to play out: Colorado, Oregon, and Alaska.

The "wild card" is still the race in Minnesota. With 8 percent returned, Democrat Franken is up 44-39 on Republican Coleman.
Wednesday
Nov052008

Live Blog: That's What We Said --- Game Over...

3:11 a.m. CNN projects Arkansas for McCain. Then Wolf gives us the teaser of "more projections" after the break. I hope we don't have to wait 10 minutes....

Obama holds 30,000 to 35,000-vote leads in Virginia and North Carolina, stretching lead in Florida, and within shouting distance in Indiana.

3:07 a.m. James Carville, the strategist behind Bill Clinton's victories, has just put the boot in: "If I was a Republican, I wouldn't be telling the Democrats how to govern. I would be looking inward." The Republican strategist next to him is, with resignation, saying the Republicans forgot how to be fiscally responsible.

Yes, but that would be fiscally irresponsible dating back to 2001. Wonder if the Republicans will reach back that far in their inward review?

3:03 a.m. CNN panel is now discussing what a President Obama will be like. No insights but a clear sign that everyone is now playing out the string.

3:02 a.m. Fox calls Texas (34) for McCain. But they're so dispirited that they are not even colouring in the states on their website map.

3:00 a.m. Obama takes Iowa (7). McCain gets Utah (5) and, belatedly, CNN adds Kansas to the Republican column. Montana and Nevada are uncalled.

CNN's electoral count is now 206-89.

2:59 a.m. It was the way the count ran in Virginia --- lots of rural areas early, lots of cities late --- that produced McCain's advantage. Obama now leads by 15,000 votes.

2:55 a.m. Thank goodness for Ohio saving our anxious wait. Other races are still close: McCain up only 7,000 votes in Indiana with 82 percent returned. Obama up 33,000 in North Carolina with 66 percent in. Florida is 51-49 for Obama with 62 percent in.

2:53 a.m. Hurrah for the BBC! We couldn't figure why their electoral vote count diverged from CNN, but a sharp-eyed (even after five beers) partier noticed that they called New Mexico (5) for Obama.
CNN have now trailed in with their call.

*Said partier interjects proudly that he has had more than five beers....

2:50 a.m. With 78 percent returned in Virginia, Obama is down only 2,000 votes.

Bill Bennett has just declared a "perfect storm" for Obama. I think he's wishing a perfect storm could wash him out of the CNN studios.

2:49 a.m. Fox's Website Headline: "Obama Wins in Ohio, Pa., Delivering Damaging Blow to McCain Hopes for Upset"

As my mother would say, "You think?"

2:46 a.m. Oh no! I look up, unaware that Canuckistan has flipped from CNN to BBC, and I see the Walrus Moustache of John Bolton. You have to hand it to Bolton --- eight years after he served as Chief Bully Boy to ensure that Florida didn't recount votes, he's still being upbeat. Upbeat because he's already revelling in Obama being a doomed Socialist/foreign policy weakling. A fine example of a man who benefits whether he is in or out of power.

2:42 a.m. Wolf, who also realises all the drama is ebbing way, urges viewers "to be John King" and go to CNN.com and change their own maps. (Kinda of like a fictional version of Florida-flipping in 2000)
Emma North/Neurotica Longjohn, unfortunately, mishears and thinks the injunction is "to beat John King".

2:41 a.m. CNN's Campbell Brown (who should change her last name to be a bit more wacky) is almost giggling as she says, "Let's take a reality check. How can John McCain find a way back?" John King, still excited, starts flipping colours on the map in the equivalent of rigging your computer game so Macclesfield win the Premiership (US translation: Detroit Lions win the NFL). He basically lets McCain win everything except the West Coast.

I think he realises how silly this looks but tries to regain himself: "Whatever I've said here, it's important that you still vote. Vote, vote, vote."

2:36 a.m. Celebrity guest Emma North of the BBC is noting that, to appear on CNN, you have to have a wacky name like Wolf or Soledad or Dana Bash. She is considering a change from Emma North to Neurotica Longjohn.

2:32 a.m. CNN, who are now looking like big girls' blouses, still haven't made that call they promised. John King is getting so close to a map of Ohio that he's drowning in blue computer ink, but he can't convince Wolf to make the declaration.

Oh, no, wait. Now (2:34) Wolf makes his shout-out: Obama wins Ohio. Here's a tip, folks: a 10-minute build-up just makes you look a bit silly, lagging behind The Loughborough Echo.

Timing, timing, timing.

2:31 a.m. It's now official: The Loughborough Echo in the East Midlands of Britain have just declared Barack Obama the President-elect.

2:28 a.m. Obama has taken the state that eluded John Kerry in 2004 and Al Gore in 2000, handing the election to George W. Bush each time. The surprise here is that the call --- in contrast to Florida and Virginia --- came with less than 10 percent of the vote in.

McCain clings on to a 12,000-vote lead with 70 percent returned in Virginia. Obama holds a 51-48 edge in North Carolina. And his lead is down to 51-48 with 55 percent returned in Florida.

But, to repeat, all of these --- if the Ohio projection holds --- are just post-scripts for the race.
Wednesday
Nov052008

Live Blog: Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop....

2:26 a.m. And CNN gets beat to the punch. Fox and MSNBC call Ohio --- already! --- for Obama.

Game over.

2:25 a.m. Then Wolf Blitzer excitedly declares, "We are on the verge of a major projection." And, laying it on in cliff-hanger, CNN cuts to adverts to make some money.

2:24 a.m. CNN cuts to a bit of Hank Williams, Jr. at the McCain "rally". Maybe he can rewrite his best-selling hit as "All My Rowdy Friends Are Voting Democrat Tonight".

2:24 a.m. CNN decides that West Virginia (5) will be going for McCain. Since Fox did that almost two years ago, I think CNN can now put "caution" in its banner.

2:21 a.m. Desperation Corner --- Fox, looking for any shred of comfort/castigation, are claiming that two Black Panthers are intimidating voters outside a Philadelphia polling station.

I presume that these are two African-American leftie/radical/"terrorist" Black Panthers as opposed to large cat Black Panthers (like on "Big Cat Safari").

Oh, yes, Fox also call Kansas (6) for McCain.

2:19 a.m. CNN finally projects that Senator McConnell is safe in Kentucky. He's up only 51-49 with 65 percent in but the key urban (and then Democratic-leaning) areas have already reported.

2:13 a.m. In the Republican swing states (any one of which will win it all for the Democrats)

Virginia --- McCain now up only 50-49 with 64% in
North Carolina --- Obama up 52-48 on 37% in
Florida --- Obama up 52-48 with 48% in
Indiana --- McCain up 51-48 with 65% in
Ohio (now counting) --- Obama up 57-42 with 8% in

2:12 a.m. CNN calls Georgia for McCain. Old news, guys.

2:12 a.m. Paul Begala on CNN just quoted his son, "Peace Out, Cub Scout". I have no clue why.

2:08 a.m. Reports that there are up to a million people attending the rally in Chicago tonight. Question: if they were going to riot from anger with an Obama loss (see the Daily Telegraph and Daily Mail), will they riot from joy with an Obama victory?

2:04 a.m. CNN calls Senate seats for Jeanne Shaheen (New Hampshire) and Tom Udall (New Mexico). That's four gains so far so, at a minimum, it's 53-45 Democrat (with two independents) in the upper chamber.

2:07 a.m. Here's one of those counting quirks I love. Obama is up 174-49 in the electoral college count but, up to a minute ago, McCain was slightly ahead in the popular vote.

2:02 a.m. CNN has decided to give the wizard Bill Schneider another go at analysing results. Unfortunately, it's with his awful "tornado" map that can only be read by Superman at close distance. They really are pants --- is that an acceptable political term? --- tonight.

2 a.m. Obama takes Michigan (17), Rhode Island (4), Wisconsin (10), Minnesota (10), New York (31). McCain gets Wyoming (3) and North Dakota (3) which, frankly, looks a bit weak.

Really weak --- CNN want to rub it in by not calling McCain's home state of Arizona.

2 a.m. While we're waiting, Channel 4 has this classic quote: "Call in the dogs and piss on the fire."

1:58 a.m. CNN calls Alabama for McCain. "Not a huge surprise." No, not really. They're itching for the next closing of polls in 2 minutes. They even have Wolf staying at a big clock.

1:53 a.m. Dramatic drumroll. Could it be? But no, just the confirmation that Kay Hagan has taken the Senate seat from Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina. Campbell Brown is revelling in the fact that Dole (unsuccessfully) tried to claw back a lead by accusing Hagan of "godlessness".

1:50 a.m. The British magazine The Spectator tries to make its international mark by calling the election --- the entire election --- for Obama.

More importantly, so has P Diddy. He "felt like Martin Luther King when he voted".

And not so importantly but entertainingly, William Bennett has given up on CNN. Bennett, who was the former commander of Ronald Reagan's War on Drugs, who then preached about the decline of "culture" in the United States, and who then (inconveniently for his analysis) got caught losing millions of dollars gambling, sadly says that Pennsylvania seals the deal. No doubt, he will follow this in a few minutes with a treatise on the continued slide of the US into cultural mud.

1:45 a.m. Fox tries to ease its pain (I'm trying to picture the faces as they called Pennsylvania for Obama): they call Alabama (9), Georgia (15), and Arkansas (6) for McCain.

So my relatives, who live north of Atlanta, can all have a consolation drink of Coca-Cola --- the South (at least if you cut loose of Virginia and maybe North Carolina) has stayed solid.

1:42 a.m. That is, the shoe that means the Democrats can celebrate. Republicans still up in Virginia. North Carolina is still early (10% in). And Ohio has delayed counting because polling stations stayed up late to accommodate people in line.

Of course, that's only 3 of the Target 10. And all of those --- including Indiana --- are still in play.
Wednesday
Nov052008

Live Blog: Tipping Point for the Democrats?

1:39 a.m. OK, folks, the first half of the big double: the Democrats hold their only vulnerable state. CNN calls Pennsylvania (21) for Obama.

Now, if Obama takes at least two and probably only one of the 10 vulnerable states held by Republicans in 2004, this one is over.

1:33 a.m. Senator McConnell's lead down to 51-49 in Kentucky with 39% lead. Democrat Shaheen up 15 points in New Hampshire over Republican Sununu with 9% in. Dole is decidedly dead in North Carolina.

1:30 a.m. CNN calls New Hampshire (4) for Obama.

I've got over the county-by-county map of Virginia with our Virginia at the party. It's a confusing situation but it appears that Richmond City has not returned, 2/3 of Hampton is still out, and areas in northern Virginia have not returned. Will that be enough to overturn McCain's lead?

1:21 a.m. Against the grain of Democratic advance, McCain is still up 56-43 in Virginia with 29 percent of the vote in. I haven't checked county-by-county breakdown, but I wonder when that lead might begin to shrink.

1:18 a.m. Senator Mitch McConnell looks safe in Kentucky --- he's up 52-48 with 1/3 of the votes in --- but Elizabeth Dole appears on her way out in North Carolina. She's 20 points down in early voting. That's two seats already to the Democrats.

1:14 a.m. CNN's reporter at the McCain rally --- Dana Bash, the second-best name of the night (see entries on Wolf Blitzer) --- speaks in front of what appears to be a choir time-lifted in from the 1950s. All I catch of her spiel is, "They say there will be time for post-mortems later," which makes me wonder whose body will be offered up to the crowd.

I suspect Sarah Palin may be in hiding.

1:09 a.m. MSNBC and ABC call Pennsylvania for Obama. NBC just called as well.

1:06 a.m. CNN, on the one hand, is saying, "We want to be extra-cautious and count the votes." At the same time, they're showing Obama with a good lead in Florida with 17% of the vote in, and I think they may have exit polls showing Obama same in Pennsylvania.