More than a dozen overnight polls have settled in a remarkably narrow range of a lead of about 7 points for Obama-Biden. If they are on the mark, Obama has not only checked McCain's fight-back of the last week but has slightly widened his advantage.
In light of this national trend and --- more importantly --- early voting patterns and state polls, Enduring America is now putting Florida back in the Democratic camp. The Obama lead in trend-adjusted polls is 2 percent. How much those polls draw from voters who have already cast their ballots rather than those who will show up today is unknown, but we think the combination of a consistent if slight Democratic lead and the mobilisation of Democratic-registered voters will give Obama-Biden the edge.
Beyond Florida, the two states most in doubt are Missouri (the closest of all races at this point) and North Carolina (Republican lead of about 1 point). That, however, is the extent of a glimmer of hope for McCain:
1. Pennsylvania, the one state that the GOP hoped to pull back from the Democrats, seems well beyond reach. Obama is up around 8 points across the polls.
2. These states held by the Republicans in 2004, and thus the margin of victory for George W. Bush, are now likely to fall to the Democrats: Virginia (Democrats up 5-6), New Mexico (Democrats up more than 10), Colorado (Democrats up 6-7), and Nevada (Democrats up 5). Even Ohio, where the Republicans were closing to within toss-up range, appears beyond reach --- Democrats are up 4.
We'll have a full run-down of the states later in preparation for Election Night live blog (from 9 p.m. British time), as well as a break-down of the key contests in Congress. We might have even a couple of "The Worst of Election 2008" stories.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008 at 15:11 