Wednesday
Nov042009
13 Aban: The Day Goes On (New Thread for Comments)
Wednesday, November 4, 2009 at 22:02 
A bit thanks to all of you. I think it will take me some time to assess what has happened, but it has meant a lot, amidst the drama and moves between worry and hope, to have your support.And nothing ends at midnight. Contrary to what one news service said today, "The opposition did not resurface today after six weeks"; it never went away. And so we'll be back in several hours to see and assess what unfolds.
In the meantime, this is your space to discuss the day.
Reader Comments (71)
Barry,
The problem is not the constitution, it is its observance. Even IR version of Iran constitution recognizes the rights of people to assemble providing that they are not armed.
In my view solution lies in separation of religion and state. Current system of theocracy operates on a set of laws deeply rooted in Islamic doctrine of 8th century which has no applicability for a 21st century society. In addition, reincarnate some of those 8th century backward thinking ideologues and give them an army of uneducated and corrupt who can only making a living by selling their honors and put them in-charge to run the Internet and space-age society. What you get is the mess in Iran.
The prescription for curing Iran cancer is pretty straightforward, invasive surgery followed by radical and aggressive chemotherapy. What is not straightforward is willingness of its patients. The younger generation in the urban areas is more than ready for such treatment plan. They, however, have to combat not only the regime forces but also have to bring onboard the rural communities. I am not worried about the latter group because Iranians in general are peace loving and will go along if their material needs are met. My concern is the corrupt forces of the regime, organizations like IRG and Basiji. These groups make their living by causing havoc at home and abroad. It is an Islamic industry that employs vast number of bottom feeders who make a good living by doing the dirty job of their mafia boss. They are corrupt to their core and the foot soldiers have been so brain washed that they truly believe they get a key to heaven by raping, torturing and killing those who stand in their way. These individuals will not give up their livelihood unless they are forced. Who can force them? Foreign governments or domestic terror organizations, or guerrilla warfare. Neither option is either pretty nor is on the horizon for now.
So what happens next? More Iranians youth and intellectual get killed, executed or jailed. Islamic regime will make its nuke ( I am 100 percent sure on this one) . We will see the continued exodus of young and educated Iranians to other countries.
Very sad prospect but Iranians are reaping what they sowed in 1979 and the world is and will be paying for the continued U.S foreign policy blunder with respect to Iran.
Thank you Megan
I agree , "These individuals will not give up their livelihood unless they are forced." And that will not be pretty. When you think of these individuals, think of German Gestapo and Waffen SS. (although these were MUCH more clever and powerful - my analogy may be a little over the top!). What did it take for these people to give up what they had??
Perhaps the "ordinary" people - the ones you say ("Iranians in general are peace loving and will go along if their material needs are met") will come out in time when the Iranian economy becomes much worse than it is now?? And it must get worse - regardless of whether further sanctions are imposed or not (and right now the Americans are not even fully enforcing the UN approved sanctions already in place)
It is said that sanctions do not work because the burden of them falls upon the weakest in society - perhaps that is what is really needed, because it is the masses who have allowed this regime to take root.
Interesting times ahead - and for somebody like myself who lives in an open and democratic society so VERY far away from Iran, on the very opposite side of the globe where I am a FREE man, it is difficult for me to even imagine the horror of living in Iran.
To Samual - I am not American. I AM old enough (in fact quite old) to have been a student of history for a long time. I know what other countries have done to their people in the past. You are obviously very anti - American. But, for all their weaknesses and faults, the Americans have NEVER put up a wall to keep their own people in. Like other places in history - the wall currently around Iran WILL fall and the security forces who are currently "in the money" will be exposed for all to see (and chase!)
Barry
Interestingly Cyrus above is a voice of reason and logic among all the other self-delusional comments by others:
"The greens need to change their tactic, this idea that change will come in a peacful way is just wishful thinking. I think Mousavi and Karoubi to some extend have underestimated the regime`s willingness to use violence. They need to realize that this is no longer a matter of change within the framework of the law. This is WAR, so they need to change their strategy and implement new tactics."
I am the last one to give advice to the Greens but seriously just how dumb are they? At least as dumb as rocks I would guess.
Here they have given AN the biggest possible gift he could ever want with their whining pleas to Master Obama. Here is the regime accusing them of being agents for foreign interests and what do they do--they confirm such accusations.
First they chant against the Palestinians on Qods Day and now reveal to all how weak they are as they plead for foreign intervention.
I can't wait for the next protest when they'll be wearing shirts (Green of Course) with giant USA letters and carrying Zionist flags.
Barry Ward,
I'm not sure what this really means: "But, for all their weaknesses and faults, the Americans have NEVER put up a wall to keep their own people in."
NEVER??? I know it was a long time ago but think of the American created reservation where they kept the Native Indians "in" so that they could free the land for white settlement. Two think of the Blacks in America who were kept as slaves first and the forcibly segregated into the 1960's. Third think of Japanese Americans who were kept in concentration camps during World War II. As I said these are old examples but you used the word "NEVER". Just setting the historical record straight.
You seem to believe that there is some obstacle keeping the Iranians "in". Please note that Iranians can emigrate and many have done so.
Samuel
I have to admit that you are very good at twisting and turning. You do have a good point - the Americans have also done some terrible things in their long past history. As have the Christians - with their Inquisitions. But - they have moved on to better enlightenment. Still - no walls around their entire people though (EVER) . Perhaps you cannot see the wall currently around the Iranian people - I have to admit also that it is a metaphoric one.
It doesn't really matter - this is not about "point scoring" on the fine art of usage of the English language .
I have noted what I perceive to be some incongruities in your postings. Basically, I have not really been able to ascertain where you are from - you could be a pro-government Iranian or even a disaffected American? Then again - the name is sourced from Jewish (Hebrew) .??
Just curious?? I would hate to be misjudging you - it is easy to do in written communications
Barry
Barry,
The Americans are doing terrible things now, today in many places around the world not just in their "long past history."
As to the name Samuel. It is very simple really. I thought it would be amusing to post on American and English Websites using the name of an individual who came all the way from America to try to convert us. I know, I know I'm far too easily amused.
He clearly succeeded since there are so many, many, many Presbyterians in Iran these days.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_M._Jordan
The jewish one as we've learned from the ever reliable western press in the last few weeks is Ahmadinejad.
Samual
It would be far more amusing to me if you were to use your REAL name - as I have.
In my free country, there is no need to hide my name. In my free country, we do not strike women with batons. In my free country, we (no longer) hang people. In my free country, we do not impose religion on people.
I hope that one day, the people of Iran will also be able to breathe free air, like I do. It will be a long struggle for them - but it will happen.
Barry
Barry,
You asked a question which I answered. I have no need nor desire to amuse you.
You are obviously a smart individual but your sactimony detracts from the point you are trying to make. Women or Men in Iran do not get hit over the head with batons or clubs because the Basij do it for sport. There is a war for the Revolution and Against the Revolution taking place in the streets.
Let's be blunt. Those individuals shouting "Death to Khamenei" in the streets would cut the SL's throat in a heartbeat with no more remorse than your average chicken farmer harvesting his product. I understand that the Greenies would like the regime to welcome those trying to overthrow the Revolution with fresh fruit and sweets but in the real world that is not going to happen.
Just a few years ago that great Free Democracy, Great Britain, in Northern Ireland would respond to Catholic demonstrators with tear gas and deadly rubber/plastic bullets. I'm sure the Catholic protesters in Northern Ireland would have much preffered clubs to the rubber bullets which maimed and killed many.
Samual
Your usage of the English language is VERY good - it is my native tongue. So I believe it is either your native tongue - or, if not, your education is very good. I understand that young Iranian people are very highly educated these days - that is very good, but perhaps that is not so good in the eyes of the Iranian regime (considering that it is still firmly based in the period that Europeans would call the Dark Ages to the Medieval Period ( ie pre - Renaissance enlightenment)
Talking about personal amusement - I have been accused of many things during my lifetime, but sanctimonious is not one of them. My friends will be delighted!!
Now to the point - I have noticed that many/most Iranian regime supporters have an "abstract" concept of some things eg the "Revolution" . You said: "There is a war for the Revolution and Against the Revolution " I believe that you are implying that "The Revolution" must be protected at all costs . Anybody who does not support "The Revolution" is a traitor to Iran . "The Revolution: -- " The Revolution" !!!
BUT - just exactly what is "The Revolution" ??? There was a "Revolution" in Russia , by the people, to overcome the Tsarist Regime and its horrors . BUT - that revolution was overtaken by the Bolshevik revolution, which in turn committed much larger and longer horrors on the Russian people.
The Iranian "Revolution" originally evicted the Shah ( and his regime) - but since then, over the past 30 years, another "Revolution" has emerged. The one that has placed the current regime in its position.
IF you are an Iranian - I am sure that you love your people and your Nation. But which "Revolution" are you so supportive of?? Is your hatred of the Americans and the Jews so all consuming, that you have forgotten about the love of your own people? Do you REALLY believe that the Iranian "Greens" are traitors? Or are they just Iranians like you?? People who just want to live their lives and love.
PS I realise I am starting to 'assume" some things. But I am only human -- but at least a FREE one (well, in my eyes, I am free - you could possibly start an argument about how I am deceived )
I am going camping this weekend - way out "in the bush" where nothing of the world and its problems will reach me - my only problem will be the birds awakening me too early. You should come with me - you would learn a lot.
Barry
The size of the anti-gvt protest is amazing. Given that every single person who went unto the streets was literally taking their lives in their hands.
Karoubi's appearance was amazing - I know it did my heart good to see him, how it must have encouraged the people there.
How many would there be if they had freedom to be there? No fear of batons, teargas, pepper spray, plastic bullets, prison, rape . . . etc? How many would be there, if the regime hadn't blocked them? If the regime really wants to see how many people are for them, then just once permit a free protest - with no fear of retribution - on that day I'm sure we would see 69 & 3/4 million on the streets. (the remaining 250,000 belong to the regime!)
Every single brave person who went unto the streets is probably representative of thousands who couldn't.
Look at the numbers at the regime's protests. They had no fear of punishment. They did not have to worry about anything, no doubt they will be well looked after just by turning up! They were free to be there. They were probably the wives, the families of the IRG, or the basij, or the regime. The numbers at their protests mean nothing!
To every single person who shouted Allah-u-Akbar or Marg bar dictator, everyone who went unto the streets, everyone who opened their door to the injured - you deserve the utmost credit and admiration.
Was the 13th Aban a success? You bet it was!!!! The fact that as many as 25-30,000 turned out in Tehran alone, not to mention Shiraz, Isfahan, Tabriz, Mashad etc etc etc. They still came in spite of the strong military clampdown, in spite of the fear, the lies, the brutality. The regime did every thing to break up protests, and still they happened. They did not allow large groups to gather, but still the protests went on.
I've no idea what's next, nor how the people can win - but one thing that was clear from yesterday, is the greens will not simply give up and go away - they long for freedom, and they deserve it - we in the safety of the west must be there for them, supporting and encouraging - speaking up for them - getting their message out. And one day we will see the change will come. As is said daily in this house "Their (the regime's) days are numbered, they are finished"
Barry,
The Revolution we support is the Revolution of the Ayatollah Khomeini. His life, his teachings, his doctrine and his legacy is our guide. A revolution that has been under attack from the day it was born by the West and by its then regional allies like Saddam Hussein's Iraq. The reformers, the westernizers, the traitors can all fight to overthrow the Revolution. The fact that they do does not bother me in the least, it is their right.
The MeK for example has been fighting a military campaign against the Revolution for 30 years. I can respect that even as I want to see them destroyed. The Mek gives no quarter and expects none from the IRGC. The Greenies on the other hand want to overthrow the Revolution and Kill the SL but they also want to be treated with gentle hands. And when they are on the receiving end they whine like little children. http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/para/mek.htm
Have fun camping.
Israeli Commandos seized a ship carrying 300 ton of weapon from Iran headed for Hezbollah. Maybe Iran is preparing for war. I doubt that these nuclear negotiations will lead anywhere. Obama desperately wants an agreement, any agreement between US and Iran will be less than satisfactory for Israel. According to Bob Baer there is a possibility for an attack within three months. An attack could be what the freedom movement in Iran needs. It got rid of Milosevic and Saddam.
Hi Samuel
I think it is good that you have stated who you are and what you stand for
"The Revolution we support is the Revolution of the Ayatollah Khomeini. His life, his teachings, his doctrine and his legacy is our guide."
For reasons that I am certain you will not understand, that statement is the very antipathy of what "Western" democrats hold near and dear. ( Am I "western" ? -- my country is not in "the West" ) In exactly the same way that "we " abhorred the Nazi and Communist idealogies, your idealogy is an anathema to me (personally) , and I think, my fellow countrymen and women
Basically, no further conversations can therefore be entered into. Your view of the world is so diametrically opposite to my view of the world - that, like a Shakespearean drama, we are both doomed to proceed to the final outcome.
Is God on my side or your side?. Not on my side - because I am an atheist and I cannot understand any people who place their faith in "Gods" (or Gods prophets) (or "Ayotollahs" )
Only the future knows the outcome - but I suspect that you are on the losing side in your country.
Barry
Cyrus
"It got rid of Milosevic and Saddam."
I have noted that many Muslims regard the US as "the Great Satan" = anti-Muslim.
But they seem to forget what the US did (for Muslims) in the area of the former Yugoslav Republic.
Saddam -- well!! What was he ? A Muslim?? - or just a psychopathic killer??
Barry
"Every single brave person who went unto the streets is probably representative of thousands who couldn’t. "
(...)
"To every single person who shouted Allah-u-Akbar or Marg bar dictator, everyone who went unto the streets, everyone who opened their door to the injured – you deserve the utmost credit and admiration."
You say it, Roe.
Not in my wildest dreams I can image what I would have done if I were in their place. They all are my heroes, every single one of them.
For me, all I can do is wishing well for it all is turning out the way they truly deserve and sincerely hoping there won't be any further escalation in losses. (Wishful thinking, I know.)
Cyrus,
Thank for your comments #37.
I never thought I would wish this for Iran or wish ill for anybody. But I have had enough. I dream of military strike at the heart of IRGC and Basijii bee nest. Iran and Middle East will be a better place without them. I dream of seeing Ronald Reagan visit on Mummer Khadafy’s roof be repeated on the roof of mullah Khamenei’s nest and his errand boy Ahmadi. I dream of seeing hell on earth for fanatic mullahs who have kept people in Stone Age so they can rob them blind. I dream of a day that stench of the mass murderer Khomeini and his blind followers be cleaned by smell of scorched earth.
Barry,
You are too rational. Fanatical Islamofascist. do not understand logic. They are like parrots, they only repeat what their master mullah has transplanted in their empty skull.
Barry,
Saddam was psycopathic killer, no doubt. My point is that, if we look at Yugoslavia and Iraq, we might draw the conclusion that a military intervention could be the thing needed for Iran. Milosevic was ovethrown after Kosovo, and he had a big base of support amongst the serbs, still he got overthrown. After operation desert storm, the shiites and the kurds rose up against Saddam, but they weren`t organised, it was spontaneous, so the uprising was crushed.
Iran is much different, 85% oppose this cruel regime, even a large percent of the IRGC footsoldiers oppose this regime. A military strike targeted at the IRGC could topple the regime in a matter of weeks, it would create chaos and a power vacum which can be exploited by the opposition.
Peaceful demonstration will not work.
There is no loyalty between SL, Jafari and IRGC commanders, if enough pressure is put on them, they will go after each other.
I personally hope for the nuclear negotiations to break down, in the light of the post-election crackdown, I think the EU will be more tolerant towards a military action.
Megan the Mullah Slayer,
Thank you for sharing your wonderfull fantasies. You should seriously consider following the example of other historic female guerrilla fighters like Leila Khaled. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leila_Khaled
I'm sure the MeK could use your efforts in their ongoing war. Just a suggestion but consider "Megan the Mullah Slayer" for a nom de guerre.
Samuel
As Megan , I have never read your comments(except in the begining when I entered to share )such they are boring and agressif; I have read this one because of the name of Megan in the begining ! What are you doing here and why are you torturing yourself ?? I didn't appreciate your comment yesterday when you said these savages did a good job !! beating the women up ! ( I zap always your comment but reading the others one I found the subject ) ( and needless to bring us some old pictures about the death of anybody to prove that you are always right) I don't want to comment about that, because I know you couldn't understand !! we belong to two worlds completly different; your comment was so inhumain that we could ask if you are suffering from schzophrenia ! if so, there are a lot of physicians to look after you !! your friends, the Hezbollahs use the innocent people like you, brain washing them, to fill their pockets with dollars instead of spending this money to save their "cause" !! look at their bank accounts, it's not normal !! they are religious and have to live as Gandi , only for their vocation; life will teach you the "tolerence", never is late to change !
Hey Sammy,
What does it tell YOU when so many of YOUR OWN PEOPLE (a majority, I dare say) want something different? You and others seem to wish it were perpetually 1979, a perpetual revolution. Newsflash Sam, it's 2009 now!
The world has changed and so too, apparently, have the majority of Iranians. Who are you to violently say to them "NO!"?
Finally, I can and will fully admit to American bad deeds. I opposed the Iraq war from Day One. The Afghan election was a debacle (unavoidable, I'd argue, but still...). Fine.
But it is NOT 1979. Your zealous anti-Americanism is no longer shared by a majority of your people. Your view of Islamic dictatorship is not shared by your own people. Why can you not accept this?
Finally, yes, it was more of a warning to Obama: "Don't betray us. Don't betray freedom."
Actually, one more thought: It is due to the actions of YOUR GOVERNMENT, from June 12 on that your treasured "Revolution" (as you narrowly interpret it) is in peril. The thuggishness of this gov't has provoked a counter-reaction. The gov't alone is responsible.
@ Samuel
Out of curiosity, are you Mohammad Marandi by any chance? That would make a lot of sense... If you are, please ask Fareed Zakaria if he can interview you again please!!!!
Ange Paris,
Thank you for your comments, # 45. This individual works for the regime as their mouth piece. This individual has sold his honor and his soul for a good life without an honest day of work. Their job is to infiltrate social networking sites to spread their obsolete political perspective and ideological nonsense. They are the PR arm of the evil regime of Iran and their mission is to export their belief system. They really believe they can dominate the world with their voodoo version of Islam and their defunct system of government. It is actually hilarious and it makes good comic script if they were not beating, raping and killing Iranian youth and intellectual on the daily basis. Iran badly needs some divine intervention to become free of these individuals.
May god help people of Iran.
Samuel,
I think your missing the other side of the picture in that a revolution need not be a violent one. India, South Africa, and the collapse of the Soviet Union are indications this path works as well. In Iran's case I think the regime would love for it to get violent because it would give them the political ammunition to "take the gloves off." I also think your missing that the reform movement has made a point to attack the current leadership not the entire ideology of the revolution. We may be debating semantics here but the reality we all know who the target is. Much of the current reform movements arguement today is based on an infringement of human rights and blatant disregard of constitutional laws upholding those rights. A number of clerics have echoed this sentiment as well.
On the flip side I believe if the Green Movement wins much of what the revolution is will be watered down. People will have more rights not dictated by religion, no forced Hijab, no morality police, religious minorities will face less persecution, seperation of churck in state(incidentally Khomeini even believed in this before he assumed power) and etc etc. In my mind that is not all that bad yet from a puritanical interpretation of Islamic law they also present possible contradictions to Sharia. Taking that into account I can understan the regimes response because they know if the people are given the choice what they know as the revolution may vanish. Ironically the regimes stance itself, along with a host of other fundamentalist Islamist movements, contradicts Islam in that their is no complusion in religion!
Thx
Bill
Bill Davit,
As I asked you on another thread why is that the very same SL who allowed Khatami, the Green Idol, to become president TWICE has authorized the current crackdown. The Reformers whine as if they've never sat at the seat of power for 30 years which is pure garbage. When they were in power Iran was isolated as ever and President Khatami unilaterally suspended enrichment while getting nothing in return.
Your analogy with South Africa is flawed. The correct analogy would be a Nelson Mandela who was allowed to be President twice by the whites and now came back trying to reclaim power.