Tuesday
Sep082009
UPDATED Iran Urgent Analysis: Is This the Defining Showdown?
Tuesday, September 8, 2009 at 15:15
NOW POSTED: Iran: Ahmadinejad’s “All-In” Move?
The Latest from Iran (8 September): Picking A Fight?
NEW Iran: Ahmadinejad Chooses Confrontation Over Compromise and Governing
UPDATED Iran: Mousavi HQ Raided by Security Forces
Iran: Green Wave Resurgent?
The Latest from Iran (7 September): Countdown to 18 September Begins
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UPDATE 9 September: We've now posted a detailed analysis, considering "Ahmadinejad's 'All-In' Move" and asking whether the President and Revolutionary Guard are challenging not only the Green movement and Hashemi Rafsanjani but also the Supreme Leader.
UPDATE 1945 GMT: The answer to our question is probably "Yes". Just after 1800 GMT, Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor, Alireza Beheshti, was arrested. (We held off posting until this was confirmed in a reliable source.) The only step up from this action is the arrest of leaders such as Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.
UPDATE 1600 GMT: Almost all the "news" is rumour and speculation, but one reliably reported development is that Mehdi Karroubi's son Hossein has said his father has kept copies of seized documents in places other than the raided offices.
And this from Mousavi's chief advisor Alireza Beheshti on the raid on the Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners: "Yesterday, agents had an appointment to come to the office and supposedly ask questions on various issues. But when they got here, they presented a warrant and confiscated equipment, documents, and a laptop computer.
Today was already one of the busiest in weeks, but events in the last three hours have the head spinning. For me, this is the most dramatic political challenge since the "40th Day" memorial on 30 July, and we could be in the midst of the biggest political showdown since the 12 June election.
Three hours ago, I was preparing to write an analysis on an apparent move for compromise between the Supreme Leader, key figures like Ali Larijani, top Parliamentarians, and possibly Hashemi Rafsanjani. This would have offered limited investigations of detainee abuse, a curbing of trials, and possibly the release of top reformist prisoners at the end of Ramadan.
The raid on Mehdi Karroubi's offices this afternoon, following yesterday's on committee offices run by Mir Hossein Mousavi's staff, change that equation. Somebody very important has decided enough is enough with the pressure for enquiries into post-election Government activities, even if those enquiries were going to be defined tightly enough to limit the pressure on the system.
1) Is this the other half of the "compromise" put forth above, ensuring that the investigations are controlled by Government agencies like the judiciary and preventing a drip-drip-drip of allegations? If so, then has the Supreme Leader played both sides, offering token concessions to the opposition (and Rafsanjani), while preserving his position and shielding Ahmadinejad from further attacks?
2) Or has Ahmadinejad, who reportedly ordered yesterday's raid on the Mousavi offices, seized the initiative to break the opposition? If so, has do the Larijanis react? And the Supreme Leader?
3) Or is there another element (read Revolutionary Guard) who has taken matters into its hands?
The Latest from Iran (8 September): Picking A Fight?
NEW Iran: Ahmadinejad Chooses Confrontation Over Compromise and Governing
UPDATED Iran: Mousavi HQ Raided by Security Forces
Iran: Green Wave Resurgent?
The Latest from Iran (7 September): Countdown to 18 September Begins
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
UPDATE 9 September: We've now posted a detailed analysis, considering "Ahmadinejad's 'All-In' Move" and asking whether the President and Revolutionary Guard are challenging not only the Green movement and Hashemi Rafsanjani but also the Supreme Leader.UPDATE 1945 GMT: The answer to our question is probably "Yes". Just after 1800 GMT, Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor, Alireza Beheshti, was arrested. (We held off posting until this was confirmed in a reliable source.) The only step up from this action is the arrest of leaders such as Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.
UPDATE 1600 GMT: Almost all the "news" is rumour and speculation, but one reliably reported development is that Mehdi Karroubi's son Hossein has said his father has kept copies of seized documents in places other than the raided offices.
And this from Mousavi's chief advisor Alireza Beheshti on the raid on the Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners: "Yesterday, agents had an appointment to come to the office and supposedly ask questions on various issues. But when they got here, they presented a warrant and confiscated equipment, documents, and a laptop computer.
Today was already one of the busiest in weeks, but events in the last three hours have the head spinning. For me, this is the most dramatic political challenge since the "40th Day" memorial on 30 July, and we could be in the midst of the biggest political showdown since the 12 June election.
Three hours ago, I was preparing to write an analysis on an apparent move for compromise between the Supreme Leader, key figures like Ali Larijani, top Parliamentarians, and possibly Hashemi Rafsanjani. This would have offered limited investigations of detainee abuse, a curbing of trials, and possibly the release of top reformist prisoners at the end of Ramadan.
The raid on Mehdi Karroubi's offices this afternoon, following yesterday's on committee offices run by Mir Hossein Mousavi's staff, change that equation. Somebody very important has decided enough is enough with the pressure for enquiries into post-election Government activities, even if those enquiries were going to be defined tightly enough to limit the pressure on the system.
1) Is this the other half of the "compromise" put forth above, ensuring that the investigations are controlled by Government agencies like the judiciary and preventing a drip-drip-drip of allegations? If so, then has the Supreme Leader played both sides, offering token concessions to the opposition (and Rafsanjani), while preserving his position and shielding Ahmadinejad from further attacks?
2) Or has Ahmadinejad, who reportedly ordered yesterday's raid on the Mousavi offices, seized the initiative to break the opposition? If so, has do the Larijanis react? And the Supreme Leader?
3) Or is there another element (read Revolutionary Guard) who has taken matters into its hands?
Reader Comments (34)
Samuel,
When a devout Roman Catholic is a military who wants power and needs to push aside the Pope , do not doubt that he will find a way with his "conscience". Stanley Kubrick showed it perfectly in Full Metal Jacket (remember Sergeant Hartman leading Christmas ceremony?)
I mean he doesn't have to dissolve the Papacy, he just has to leave it in lace while depriving it of any real power. This is maybe what the Pasdaran are aiming at.
My 2 bits:
In all his unassuming demeanors, Ahmadinejad and the IRGC firmly control the guards and the Bassij. Somehow, they have quasi control over A.Khamenei. The purge at Intellligence ministry was in the works for some time and it was to primarily remove super loyale elements of A.Kh. and some low level sympatisers of Reform camps(Rafsanjani/Hajarian). The stuff that everybody talk about now ie "the Take-Over of the Islamic Republic" by the IRGC started almost 4 years ago and culminated in teh "Khomeini Airport Incident". The June Election fiasco was supposed to be the "Icing on the Cake" that was in the baking for a while. Iranian Reformist noticing the public anger and prospects of total anihilation at the hands of ANs Gang , went for broke and proposed a sophisticated agenda that would be considered progressive even by Western Standards. A clash was enevitable, and it did occur.
Now that the chain reaction is triggered, both Reformists and IRGC are trying to control the events as best as they can without culminating in a repeat of 1979 Revolution for obvious survival concerns. It is more than obvious that the people's choice is made and there are only differences in the mechanics of how best to transition to a more Democratic Society. They (the Masses) seem to have opted for the time being to observe and fuel the internal conflicts of the "Islamic Republic of Iran" (Mousavi's statement "Islamic Republic, nothing more and nothing less"" comes to mind when one think of the differences between the current antagonists), it is an equally clever tactic comparable to the one that compeled them to vote in order to force the hand of IRGC in committting first the fraud and then the atrocities, before, during and after the June election.
This Iranian Summer was as hot as it could get. If it is of any indication to what it is to come, we should have a phenomenal "Fall".
Samuel,
I don't think anyone seriously believes that the IRGC would ever seek to dissolve the doctrine of Velayat-e faqih. However, to carry with your analogy- if you know your European history, there have been many occassions when powerful armies of devote Catholics were able to dictate terms to the Pope or force him into a particular cause of action.
The SL lacks the dynamism or imagination to coordinate and mediate an effective compromise package. He lacks the deciveness to join AN's push to eliminate the reformist opposition, or clip the wings of the increasingly confident president.
He has the chance to do all three at friday prayers- but my sense is that he will give a characteristically vague performance; heavy on calls for unity and probably critical to varying degrees of all parties. Overall, however, it will probably be light on substance. Because of his leadership style, lack of political imagination and overiding sense of caution, he is in danger of becoming a spectator as AN takes on the opposition. All because he ultmately doesn't know how to placate it. He seems unsuited to the current power plays we are seeing in Iran.
There is no question of him being removed from power, but there is a growing sense that he is unable to keep AN and, by a yet to be fully established extent, the IRGC, on as tight a leash as before.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Masbah Yazdi has issued a Fatwa to kill Mousavi and Karobi
http://iranpressnewsblog.blogspot.com/2009/09/masbah-yazdi-has-issued-fatwa-to-kill.html
@ ChrisE
Well then I am anyone Seriously.
Personally I think if anyone is against a Supreme Leader, Clerics or is pro secularism, your money is the safest with the Guards... The onlt problem is that you'd get in its place a religious Fascist Goverment instead.
But I am convinced that under the Guards we would sooner see all clerics leave the scene then under any otherone. And it is exactly what they have been doing for the last 10 years or so.
They are working their way up the ladder. If they win this war you'll see him climb higher up till eventually even the position of S.L is gone.
@ Nancy Butters
September 9th, 2009 at 1:23 Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Masbah Yazdi has issued a Fatwa to kill Mousavi and Karobi
http://iranpressnewsblog.blogspot.com/2009/09/masbah-yazdi-has-issued-fatwa-to-kill.html
Hmm. lets see if this gets confirmed by another source. I would seriously doubt this be true...
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