2145 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An activist reports that Layla Tavasoli and Mohamad Naeimpour of the Freedom Movement of Iran have been released from Evin Prison.
2130 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Another sign of the “conservative” push for changes within the system. The brother of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mohammad Hashemi Rafsanjani, has told Khabar Online that the Expediency Council will seek to remove “ambiguities” in Iran’s election law. At the same time, Mohammad Rafsanjani denied that the Expediency Council will seek to remove the Guardian Council’s monitoring of elections.
1840 GMT: WaPo’ed (definition: “declaring an opposition movement dead without evidence and with dubious motives). Just a quick note to folks at The Washington Post: in the past 72 hours, you have distorted a piece by your own Iran correspondent to portray the demise of the Green movement on 22 Bahman and you have run an Associated Press report which declares from thin air:
2225 GMT: More on Khamenei Speech (see 1445 and 1850 GMT). An EA reader who watched the Supreme Leader’s address today sends an interesting e-mail, “His speech did not sound aggressive. It sounded more as a request for calm and acting with wisdom after the fallouts of Ashura. It appeared that he was lacking in confidence. Same for the crowd.”
2220 GMT: Halting the Mothers of Martyrs. An Iranian activist reports that, during their weekly march in Laleh Park, about 30 of Mothers of Martyrs in the post-election crisis and their supporters were arrested and taken to Vozara detention centre.
2200 GMT: Mortazavi — Scapegoat or Valued Official? Iran-watchers may want to set aside a few moments for former Tehran prosecutor Saeed Mortazavi, whose future may turn upon the developments in the internal contest amidst conservatives and principlists.
Days after Mortazavi was reportedly named as prime “suspect” in the Parliamentary investigation of the deaths of Kahrizak detainees, he was formally named as President Ahmadinejad’s advisor to combating smuggling of drugs and currency.
Interpretation? Mortazavi is now the proxy in the battle between key conservatives/principlists and Ahmadinejad. The President wants him as a sign of Ahmadinejad’s authority and as a firewall to any move by Parliamentary challenges; Ahmadinejad’s critics see Mortazavi’s downfall as a necessary victory in their battle.
Another marker in the dispute is a statement by a “pro-Government” student organisation criticising Ahmadinejad for the appointments of Mortazavi and for Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, the former First Vice-President — a few days after his appointment, he was removed from office amidst vehement criticism from the conservatives/principlists who may be aiming at Mortazavi — who is now Ahmadinejad’s chief of staff. Read the rest of this entry »
1930 GMT: Kill Them. Abbas Vaez-Tabasi, a member of the Expediency Council and the Assembly of Experts has declared on state television, “Those who are behind the current sedition in the country … are mohareb (enemies of God) and the law is very clear about punishment of a mohareb [execution].”
Today’s Show of Support for the Regime? If you believe Peyke Iran, it wasn’t much. The website reports that residents in Rasht ridiculed a demonstration of 300 plainclothes Basijis chanting slogans for the execution of reformists like Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, and Mehdi Karroubi.
1845 GMT: The Arrests Move Higher. Government forces have arrested Mir Hossein Mousavi’s chief aide Alireza Beheshti. Beheshti, the son of one of Iran’s most commemorated martyrs, Ayatollah Mohammad Beheshti, was also detained briefly in September when the regime tried to disrupt preparations for Qods Day demonstrations.
1830 GMT: The Karroubi Family Speaks Out (Cont.): Mehdi Karroubi’s son Taghi has added to the criticisms by Karroubi’s wife and son Hossein of regime restrictions on his father. He said that Government-provided security has stopped protecting Karroubi when he leaves the house. This is effectively a ”quasi-house arrest’.’
2120 GMT: Well, unless the unexpected happens, it looks like all will be quiet until tomorrow morning’s setpiece of President Ahmadinejad’s speech introducing Friday prayers in Tehran.
2110 GMT: We took an evening break to recharge but, to be honest, we’ve returned to a standstill — no political developments.
There is, however, curious (and darkly humourous) goings-on at Press TV. The website has repackaged the Supreme Leader’s Wednesday night speech under the headline, “Leader urges support for Ahmadinejad’s strong suits”, and the first paragraph: “The Leader of the Islamic Revolution sheds light on the recent course of events in Iran, urging the nation to stand by the administration of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.”
That opening is superimposed on paragraphs 2-9, which are truer to the original account of the speech (and thus not so warm towards Ahmadinejad, with the exception of one sentence — not included here — which has been heavily edited and thus distorted):
Be sure that no crime or atrocity will go unpunished, but with issues of that importance the judiciary should rule based on solid evidence….The establishment [the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran] should take broad actions only after taking into consideration all aspects of the issues, and avoiding assessing the situation only from one dimension….Irregularities and atrocities have been committed during the aftermath of the elections, crimes that will be certainly dealt with….Irregularities and atrocities have been committed during the aftermath of the elections, crimes that will be certainly dealt with.
Question: who made Press TV stick on a “better” headline and opening paragraph, which have little to do with the rest of the article?
From Evan Siegel in Iran Rises, translating the indictment originally published in Fars News. Siegel’s initial comment is that much of the “evidence” appears to rely on Hossein Derakhshan, the blogger detained in November 2008 and initially accused of spying for Israel and the US. Whether or not this is the case, Siegel’s subsequent note that this indictment reads like “whistling past the graveyard”, with the prosecutor “knowing full well…that the precise opposite of what he is saying is true” is on target. Indeed, it reinforces our analysis the day after the first trial, “The indictment and presentation of charges offered no evidence of substantive criminal acts….The “foreign plot” scenario [is] almost laughable, turn[ing] US-based academics into directors of an Iranian insurgency.”
In the name of Allah, the Merciful, the Compassionate
The text of the Tehran judiciary’s charges against the defendants in the defeated project for a velvet coup:
“When We make mankind taste of some mercy after adversity has touched them Behold! they take to plotting against our Signs! Say: “Swifter to plan is Allah!” Verily Our messengers record all the plots that you make!” (Koran, Yunos 21)
Honorable President of the Tehran Islamic Revolutionary Court,
Peace be on you.
As you have been apprised, the wise Leader of the revolution, with his Imam-like wisdom, stated that the aware nation of Islamic Iran has created an astonishing and unprecedented epic by their unusual presence at the ballot boxes during the elections for the tenth term of the presidency, which showed the Iranian nation’s political maturity, revolutionary, powerful and civil capacity, and determined visage in a beautiful and glorious display before the eyes of the world. Read the rest of this entry »
Saturday, for the first day in recent weeks, it was the regime on the offensive. Ayatollah Jannati’s tough address at Friday prayers in Tehran was followed by the showpiece of the trial of almost 100 defendants, including a former Vice President and Deputy Ministers, key members of reformist political parties, and journalists.
As legal process, the courtroom scene was, to be frank, ludicrous. There were no defense lawyers, and the only official press in the courtroom were those from media favourable to the State.
The indictment and presentation of charges offered no evidence of substantive criminal acts apart from the relatively minor acts of throwing stones at security forces. More sinister allegations of bombing relied upon the past, rather the current, records of defendants (and did not include any of the most prominent detainees). And the “foreign plot” scenario was almost laughable. It turned US-based academics into directors of an Iranian insurgency. (Abbas Milani has no love for the regime, but he is a solid historian and political analyst, and Gene Sharp works with theory, rather than application, of non-violent regime change. Mark Palmer may be an irritating polemicist, but he is not a CIA mastermind.)
The central act of the prosecution’s play was the testimony of former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi. While dramatic in its content, it offered no detail of a treasonous plot. Instead, this was blatant political manoeuvre, designed to stigmatise Mohammad Khatami, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavai (although he was portrayed as naïve campaigner rather than malevolent schemer), and, above all, Hashemi Rafsanjani.
Only Abtahi knows whether his testimony was genuine or coerced. His family and attorney declared that he had been tortured and drugged. Pictures from the courtroom showed a man who looked haggard and unhealthy, losing a lot of weight in his detention. His “confession” had apparently been circulated in advance to news services that would give it the correct interpretation.
Opposition politicians denounced both the trial and Abtahi’s suspect testimony. Mousavi’s camp declared, via Ghalam News, “The people’s movement is peaceful in nature and relies on the demand of the public to achieve their rights which have been trampled upon during the last elections.” They specifically ruled out the allegation of conspiracy with foreign agents, responding not only to the trial but some unhelpful calls from outside Iran for regime change: “Despite claims of the dissidents, this just and spiritual movement has no connections with the foreigners and is completely domestic, and our nation is mindful of staying away from foreigners.”
Rafsanjani was briefer in his response, calling the testimony “an obvious lie”. Significantly, however, his advisors issued the statement through the offices of the Expediency Council, which Rafsanjani heads. The message to the regime? If you want a fight, we have our own bases of support within the system.
What matters in the short-term is not the cold dissection of yesterday’s events but the emotive reaction. Will the regime succeed, days before the anointing of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as President, in mobilising public opinion against the opposition or at least ensuring acceptance of its authority? Or is this another instance of going too far in trying to crush protest as illegitimate?
The challenge for the regime is that it cannot sustain the high-profile denunciation on a daily basis. It has played its strongest card with Abtahi. Meanwhile, the opposition is countering. A show of dissent was scheduled for this morning outside the offices of the head of Iran’s judiciary, and there is talk of protests not only for Wednesday, when Ahmadinejad is inaugurated, but also Monday, when he is approved by the Supreme Leader, and Friday, a day of celebration for Imam Mahdi’s birthday.
It is one thing to crush a reformist faction like the Islamic Iran Participation Front, whose leading members are on trial. It is another to take on both the Green movement and Rafsanjani by linking them so blatantly (and, I think, crudely).
The regime may “win” but, to do so, it is gambling. And far from cleaning up the resistance with an easy bet, it is having to raise the stakes.
1440 GMT: Ali-Akbar Javanfekr, President Ahmadinejad’s press secretary, has resigned from his post. Javanfekr stated that ” there is a need for fresh blood to take over the responsibility, and one must make way for these individuals”.
The Islamic Participation Front, one of the reformist parties has responded to the trials via its news site Norouz:
“The show goes on: Wholesale killings and suppressions, wholesale arrests and wholesale trial and sentencing. The trial of the political activists arrested after the presidential elestions has started. As it could have been expected and just as political activists and parties had warned the trial was held eschewing all legal presuppositions favoring the defendants. The Islamic Participation Front states that the sole reporting news agency in the court was the pro-government and mendacious Fars news agency. Considering the track record of this agency in propagating falsehoods, it is obvious that none of the statements of this agency possess any credibility.
Nourouz states that a credible source located in the court has stated that none of the statements of Fars are true and the court is effectively a kangaroo court.
1340 GMT: The “reformist” Parliamentary group Imam Khomeini Line has denounced today’s events as a “so-called trial”.
1330 GMT: Fars News Agency has published the “confession” of former Vice President Abtahi; this differs somewhat from the version reported out of the trial (see 1210 GMT). This may be because Fars had an advance “script” of Abtahi’s testimony.
1210 GMT: Blaming Hashemi. And now to the political point of today’s proceedings. Take note of how the “confession” of former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, as described by Fars News, is set out to tie former President Rafsanjani into the “plot” of the opposition:
After the election [Mohammad] Khatami and Rafsanjani had sworn to have each other’s back, and I don’t understand the point of it, knowing the diference [in votes between Ahmadienjad and Mousavi] was 11 million….Hashemi wanted to take revange on Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader….
Mousavi probably did not know the country, but Khatami, with all due respect… knew all the issues. He was aware of the capability and power of the leader, but he joined Mousavi and this was a betrayal,…I see myself as a reformist but stated that Khatami did not have the right to force [this] on Mousavi. I did not agree with Ahmadinejad’s presidency but believe in people’s votes, and congratulated as people’s choice as the president.
It was wrong of me to take part in the rallies, but [Mehdi] Karroubi told me that we cannot call the people onto the streets with such a meagre number of votes, so we had better go to the streets ourselves to demonstrate our protest.
But, if Rafsanjani is the chief villain, Iran can thank its ultimate hero:
If the Supreme Leader would have backed up even a bit, today Iran’s distress would have gone as far as that in Afghanistan and Pakistan; therefore people should thank the supreme leader for his moves. I am telling all friends and all that hear our voices to know the election matter was a lie to make an excuse for riots so Iran would have changed to another Iraq and Afghanistan so [the opposition] could hurt the regime and take over.
1140 GMT: How Serious is that “Foreign Plot”? Well, Mark Palmer is far from a covert practitioner of regime change: he is the author of Breaking the Axis of Evil, which “has the gumption to argue what diplomats and political leaders dare not speak: that global peace with not be achieved until democracies replace the world’s remaining dictatorships”. A former State Department official, he advocated the invasion of Iraq well before March 2003, and he is now with the American Enterprise Institute.
Abbas Milani is also not very secretive: he is one of the most prominent US-based analysts of Iran. He is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, another “conservative” think tank (one of its most notable associates is former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice). While critical of the Iranian system, Milani has not advocated “regime change”.
And Gene Sharp, singled out in the prosecution’s indictment (see 0938 GMT), is an academic who has written for decades “on the strategic uses of nonviolent struggle in face of dictatorship, war, genocide, and oppression”. A long-time fellow at Harvard University, the “instructions” cited in the indictment are not direct orders to the defendants (unless the prosecution has some dramatic evidence that Sharp has ever met any of them) but a reference to the general theories and analysis in his books.
Put bluntly, if this is a “foreign plot”, as the Iranian prosecutors allege, it’s a very poorly-designed one indeed, given that it took me five minutes to assemble the above information. Read the rest of this entry »
A confession. After several hours, we were still not certain of the significance of yesterday’s statement by the Association of Teachers and Researchers of Qom, who declared that the Government was “illegitimate”. Our initial thought was that the group was just one of a number of clerical factions, in this case a “reformist” faction such as the Assocation of Combatant Clerics linked to former President Khatami. We were not sure who the members were or what relationship they had to prominent critics of the Government such as Ayatollah Montazeri, Ayatollah Sane’i, or Ayatollah Taheri. Read the rest of this entry »
2145 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An activist reports that Layla Tavasoli and Mohamad Naeimpour of the Freedom Movement of Iran have been released from Evin Prison.
1930 GMT: Kill Them. Abbas Vaez-Tabasi, a member of the Expediency Council and the Assembly of Experts 
From Evan Siegel in Iran Rises
Saturday, for the first day in recent weeks, it was the regime on the offensive. Ayatollah Jannati’s tough address at Friday prayers in Tehran was followed by the showpiece of the trial of almost 100 defendants, including a former Vice President and Deputy Ministers, key members of reformist political parties, and journalists.
A confession. After several hours, we were still not certain of 
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