1910 GMT: Reuters has picked up Zahra Rahnavard’s latest interview, highlighting the line, “I have said many times that this government is illegitimate…but because the government claims to be legitimate, it has to carry out its duties.”
1900 GMT: From Washington With… ? We’ve posted the video of yesterday’s “Iran at A Crossroads” conference.
1855 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Readers have rightly noted an apparent lapse in our coverage of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. The reformist daily Bahar claimed on Wednesday that, in a clear sign of reconciliation with the regime, Rafsanjani would soon lead Friday Prayers in Tehran. (He has not done so since his 17 July address, which was a catalysts for demonstrations against the Government.)
2225 GMT: Petraeus Pronounces. On a slowish political evening, General David Petraeus dishes out some rhetoric on Iran’s “thugocracy”. We’ll have an analysis tomorrow (hint: it’s actually a signal that US is backing off any immediate military pressure), but for now, we’ve posted the video.
1945 GMT: Larijani Watch. Nice move by the head of Iran’s judiciary, Mohammad Sadegh Larijani. He has announced the discovery of a large group inside the Government carrying out fraud and economic corruption: one case alone was embezzlement of 6 bilionl Toman more than $6 million).
1925 GMT: A (Pick the) Number of Protesters Will Be Tried Sometime in the Future with War Against the Regime (and Maybe God). Press TV trots out the latest press release to show Justice Will Be Done over the protests of Ashura (27 December):
Iran’s judiciary says it has forwarded the cases of sixteen individuals indicted in connection with the Ashura riot in Tehran to the Revolution Court.
The Tehran Prosecutor’s office said in a statement that one of the defendants could be charged with being “mohareb” (enemy of God) — a crime punishable by execution.
The fifteen [other] suspects were charged with “conspiring against national security and carrying out acts against the establishment,” the statement added.
This is the latest in a series of public set-pieces. A couple of weeks ago, “seven” defendants appeared in Revolutionary Guard. Then there was the announcement that “five” demonstrators would be charged as “mohareb”.
All of this, in contrast to the public show of the Tehran trials in August, seems just a bit haphazard.
1840 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi has offered condolences to the family of Professor Ali-Mohammadi.
1825 GMT: Professor Ali-Mohammadi and Sweden. There has been a lot of chatter around the theory that Massoud Ali-Mohammadi was killed by regime loyalists, in part because he was going to take up a fellowship at Stockholm University in Sweden. We’ve done some checking:
1. We can establish nothing beyond the claim of the physicist’s colleagues that “he had been in touch” with Stockholm about a one-year research grant. That’s not necessarily “taking up” a fellowship, since in many cases, an application is made to a funding body, e.g., the European Union’s research support programmes, for a Visiting Scholar.
The claim, without further evidence, was exaggerated on prominent blogs into Ali-Mohammadi definitely leading the country.
2. It is not necessarily an anti-regime step to take up an overseas fellowship. I personally know academics who support the regime who have held such fellowships.
3. There is nothing to indicate that Ali-Mohammadi’s research fellowship would have turned into a defection.
4. There’s a contradiction in the theory. If Ali-Mohammadi was in fact a particle physicist who had little or no connection with Iran’s nuclear programme, why would there be a risk for the regime in his taking up a fellowship, since he would have no sensitive information to disclose?
1330 GMT: Iranian sources report that a fifth post-election death sentence for threatening national security has been handed down in the case of Reza Khademi.
1325 GMT: A summary of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s comments in his meeting with Mehdi Karroubi on Friday: “This great movement defends basic values. This movement says, ‘Do not tell lies. Falsehood is condemned. Fraud is condemned.’
“Those who beat people must not think that by intimidating people they can make people stay home. Islam has taught people seek their rights without fear.”
1145 GMT: Reviving? Mir Hossein Mousavi has met Mehdi Karroubi “to comfort [cleric]. about the physical assult on him by the security forces and plainclothes militia at the November 4th [13 Aban] rallies and to condemn and talk about the violent acts of the security and Basij militia forces against people, especially women on that day”.
1140 GMT:Cracking Down on the Students. Abdollah Momeni, the spokesman of the reformist student organisation Darhat-Tahkim-Vahdat, has been sentenced to eight years in prison!
1130 GMT: When Arts and Politics Mix. President Ahmadinejad, acting as the head of the Revolutionary Cultural Council, has changed the existing constitution of the Academy of Arts, possibly to prepare for the dismissal of Mir Hossein Mousavi as the President of the Academy. Under the amendment, the President of the Academy would be appointed directly by the Iranian President, without any requirement for consultation with the members of the Academy.
During President Khatami’s administration, it was established that the President of the Academy would be elected by the permanent members of the Academy’s General Assembly, and the president as the head of the Revolutionary Cultural Court would approve the nominee.
2100 GMT: A Hold-Up of the Telecommunications Privatisation? Mehr News reports that Iran’s General Inspection Organization has said uncertainties remain in the purchase of the Telecommunications Company of Iran (TCI), submitting its report to a Parliamentary committee for further investigation.
Three Iranian firms, part of a consortium named Etemad Mobin Development, bought 50 percent plus one share of the company for $7.8 billion on 20 September. There are claims that the Revolutionary Guard is a hidden partner in the consortium.
2050 GMT: Mr Smith adds to the news (1530 GMT) that Mehdi Karroubi restated his claims of election fraud in a meeting today. Karroubi was actually meeting the leadership of Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat, the student organisation who supported him in the Presidential campaign and whose leaders, Ahmad Zeidabadi and Abdollah Momeni, are currently in jail.
2030 GMT: More on Hengameh Shahidi. After some uncertainty this afternoon over her announced release on $90,000 bail, the Karroubi advisor was able to leave after more than 120 days in detention, including 50 in solitary confinement. There are reports that she has been transferred to hospital following her hunger strike last week.
We have been identifying Shahidi as a lawyer. Mr Smith checks in to correct us: she is a prominent journalist and war correspondent. Read the rest of this entry »
2030 GMT. Harrumph, harrumph. The Financial Times, which is vying with The Times of London to be the at-hand Government channel for “news”, uses several hundred words as a backdrop for this fist-shaking from “a senior British government official”:
It is important that IAEA inspectors are given access to Qom immediately. We regret that Iran is delaying this until October 25. We see no reason for a delay. What possible reason can there be for it?
Given that the IAEA and even most of the Obama Administration welcomed the agreement, one has to wonder whether this is the same “rogue” British official who gave the FT their recent non-story on “secret Iran nuclear arms plan”, whether this is a concerted London effort to play “tough cop” alongside a more conciliatory US, or whether Gordon Brown’s Government has decided it really doesn’t want meaningful negotiations.
1945 GMT: We’re not asleep. It’s just a very slow night for news, and we’re also suffering from a bit of fatigue after a heavy academic day.
However, I think you can look forward to some new analysis on Hashemi Rafsanjani by the morning. And we’re trying valiantly to track down the video of last night’s interview on CNN by Christiane Amanpour of Ray Takeyh, formerly of the National Security Council, and Seyed Mohammad Marandi of the University of Tehran. (Coincidentally, I’ve worked with both on academic projects.)
1705 GMT: Establishment Battles Resume? Parleman News is claiming that supporters of President Ahmadinejad have tried — and failed — to unseat Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani as the head of the Principlist majority group. If true, this could be a sign that the temporary reconciliation of conservative and principlist factions, prominent at the start of September with the approval of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet, may be breaking down.
And that in turn raises the question: is this split being fostered by the imminence of a National Unity Plan which may seek to marginalise Ahmadinejad?
1640 GMT: We think Hashemi Rafsanjani’s statement, which we noted here earlier, is important enough to warrant a separate entry.
1625 GMT: The Unity Gesture? EA’s Mr Smith predicted that this step would occur in the Supreme Leader’s speech at the end of Ramadan on 20 September. Looks like he was only two weeks off: “Iran is to release on bail around 20 people accused of post-election violence, including top reformists and an Iranian-American scholar.”
According to the Islamic Republic News Agency, citing a source inside Iran’s judiciary, those who may be freed include former Vice President Mohammed Ali Abtahi, journalist Mohammad Atrianfar, reformist leaders Shahab Tabatabaei, Saeed Shariati and Abdollah Momeni, and Iranian-American academic Kian Tajbakhsh.
1430 GMT: Pointless Analysis of Day. A Jeffrey Kuhner, the declared President of the “Edmund Burke Institute”, is allowed to take up space in The Washington Times with this: “War with Iran is now inevitable. The only question is: Will it happen sooner or later?”
1240 GMT: Good Cop, Bad Cop. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has provided the critical counterpoint to the positive signals from this morning’s briefing by IAEA head Mohammad El-Baradei (0905-0920 GMT):
The [IAEA] is an international authority which should supervise all nuclear activities of states, but the agency’s records indicate that it was not successful in this regard for political reasons. The agency acted successfully with regard to nuclear activities in certain places like Japan, but it bowed [to pressure] where it faced political barriers and proved unsuccessful.
The head of Iran’s nuclear programme, Ali Akhbar Salehi, sounded a different tune after his press conference with El Baradei. Confirming the late October inspection date for the second enrichment plant and discusions on “third-party enrichment”, he said, “As far as safeguards are concerned, Iran’s nuclear issue has been fully resolved.”
1200 GMT: Report that two members of the reformist student group Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat (Unity Consolidation Bureau) are still in Evin Prison, with 16 released yesterday. Original reports were that there were 15 detainees, and all were freed.
0920 GMT: El Baradei calls for Iran to rejoin the Subsidiary Protocol (Code 3.1) of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which provides a stricter framework for inspection and monitoring. Iran left the Protocol in 2007 after a dispute with the IAEA over access to information on military programmes as well as the nuclear facilities.
2110 GMT: On the day after Grand Ayatollah Montazeri denounced Iran’s “military state”, his three grandsons — Mohammad Mehdi, Mohammad Ali Montazeri, and Mohammad Sadegh — have been arrested.
2045 GMT: Over to You. What do you think Hashemi Rafsanjani is intending for Qods Day? We’ve posted a translation of his statement today, including his reference to “an absolutely illegitimate, fraudulent, and usurping Government”.
1910 GMT: Got It in One. Our prediction at 1450 GMT: “the Speaker of the Parliament asked Karroubi to please refrain from taking to the streets this Friday on Qods Day, promising in return a genuine Parliamentary review of the claims of detainee abuse.”
From Rouydad News: “Larijani asked Karoubi to keep quiet for a while. Karoubi said I will die but I won’t keep quiet.”
1830 GMT: Did Rafsanjani Just Bless the (Green) Cause? Our sharp readers will have noted our caution in the previous entry. While Hashemi Rafsanjani had asked Iranians to march on Friday, he had referred to the cause of Palestine.
The Internet is buzzing, however, with the reading that the former President has now signalled that he is with the opposition. The key sentence? The Iranian version of “It is always darkest just before dawn”.
1738 GMT: The website of the Supreme Leader has denied the claim that Hashemi Rafsanjani, in a talk with Ayatollah Khamenei, threatened to resign all his positions if Mehdi Karroubi was arrested.
1910 GMT: Reuters has picked up Zahra Rahnavard’s latest interview, highlighting the line, “I have said many times that this government is illegitimate…but because the government claims to be legitimate, it has to carry out its duties.”
1330 GMT: Iranian sources report that a fifth post-election death sentence for threatening national security has been handed down in the case of Reza Khademi.
2100 GMT: A Hold-Up of the Telecommunications Privatisation? 
2030 GMT. Harrumph, harrumph. The Financial Times, which is vying with The Times of London to be the at-hand Government channel for “news”, uses several hundred words as a backdrop for 
2110 GMT: On the day after Grand Ayatollah Montazeri denounced Iran’s “military state”, his three grandsons — Mohammad Mehdi, Mohammad Ali Montazeri, and Mohammad Sadegh — 
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