Al Alam was also briefly suspended in November. The cited reason was a contractual breach by the Saudi and Egyptian owners of the satellite service, although political tensions between Tehran, Riyadh, and Cairo may also have been involved.

1700 GMT: The German Menace. Oh, dear, it is a slow news day. Media are running with the Iran regime/media baton of the “German plot” behind the Ashura demonstrations (see 1130 GMT). Reuters put it on their newsfeed, and The Los Angeles Times’ Babylon and Beyond has devoted a blog entry to the whipped-up story, which goes back to the brief detention of two German diplomats during the protest of 27 December.

At least the LA Times piece has some interesting related information, beyond the silliness of supposed German code names “Yogi” and “Ingo”. For example, the Iranian intelligence official pointed to the Facebook page, from which EA often takes information and English translation, supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi: “Through his Facebook page, Mr. Mir-Hossein Mousavi had called for his supporters to turn out. Mr. Mousavi has never denied the page was run by him.”

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The Latest from Iran (26 January): Now for the Follow-Up….

(Message to our friends in the regime: in fact, Mir Hossein Mousavi has never had a connection with the page, which was set up by an Iranian in Germany who became enthused about the Mousavi Presidential campaign. That is why EA never cites information from that page as a reflection of Mousavi’s views)

The Iranian official also put out the latest “directorate of exiles” supervising regime change: cleric Mohsen Kadivar, journalist Akbar Ganji, former culture minister Ataollah Mohajerani, filmmaker Mohsen Makhmalbaf and former lawmaker Fatemeh Haghighatjoo.

(Message to our friends in the regime: of those 5, exactly 0 are based in Germany — 4 are in the US and 1 in France. If you’re going to keep up this “German plot” thing, may want to find someone who actually has a resident’s-eye view of the Brandenburg Gate.)

1445 GMT: Sanctions Spin. A “senior US official” has told media that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will use meetings in London this week, primarily devoted to Afghanistan and Yemen, to press other countries to accept new international sanctions on Iran over its nuclear programme.

1345 GMT: On the Economic Front. The story is throughout “Western” media that the German manufacturer Siemens is ending all interests in Iran.

1200 GMT: A Pause in Service. I’m off to Dublin for 24 hours so EA colleagues will keep an eye out for developments. Keep sending in any information — it’s a slow day so far….

1130 GMT: OK, Let’s Try Blaming the Germans. Slow day today so nice of the Government and Iranian state media to raise a smile with their latest “findings”:

Iran’s Intelligence Ministry said Wednesday it has found evidence that German diplomats played a role in last month’s “anti-revolution riots” in Tehran.

“Anti-Islamic Revolution agents, networks backed by Western intelligence services” and those who seek to promote sedition in the country had planned the Ashura riots in advance, the Iranian Students News Agency quoted a deputy intelligence minister as saying….

The intelligence official also said an advisor to the defeated presidential candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi had also been arrested.

“Based on documents obtained from this person, he transferred confidential information to foreign countries through the ringleader of intelligence services of a European country,” the official said.

1000 GMT: We’ve posted the video behind the fuss over the Karroubi statement on Monday — his encounter with Fars News even includes a kiss on the head for the reporter.

0800 GMT: The Economic Front. An EA reader writes:

For what it’s worth, spoke with a close family member in Iran today. It seems panic there is building about the economic situation. For one, there is fear about what is going to happen with money in the banks and more generally to the economy if the banks break down.

But that is the lesser fear. Most Iranians I know never fully trusted banks (or the rial) and so put money that they have (if they have it) into land, gold, and other assets. On the other hand, real panic building about the pulling of subsidies. Most Iranians I know live a middle middle-class lifestyle. They will not likely get any “direct payments” from the government, but will see their gas and utility bills quadruple. They don’t know how they are going to afford it.

0715 GMT: For the first time in 48 hours, we’re drawing breath amidst a lull in breaking news. We have posted a morning analysis, “Much Ado About Something”, to go through the latest developments on the Karroubi statement and to draw out its political significance.

And, for those who missed it last night, we have also cast an eye over Hashemi Rafsanjani’s latest statement to see if it has any immediate importance.

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2135 GMT: For What It’s Worth. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has stated sharply, possibly in response to Mohammad El Baradei’s revelation that the International Atomic Energy Agency is looking for a compromise for the Vienna third-party enrichment agreement, “This is a pivotal moment for Iran. We urge Iran to accept the agreement as proposed and we will not alter it and we will not wait forever.”

Whether the US Government holds this line, effectively suspending engagement, remains to be seen. It should be noted, however, that the “late October” window for the meeting of the 5+1 powers with Iran to seal a deal — originally projected at the start of October when direct discussions between the US and Iran resumed in Geneva — has come and gone.

1900 GMT: Shutting Away Journalists. Reporters Without Borders writes, “At least 100 journalists and cyber-dissidents have been arrested” in Iran since 12 June “and 23 of them are still being held. More than 50 journalists have left the country and those who have stayed are subject to constant harassment.”

The organization notes that, in addition to the arrest of Agence France Press correspondent Farhad Pouladi (see 1045 GMT), Nafiseh Zareh Kohan, a journalist who writes for various pro-reform newspapers, and blogger and human rights activist Hassin Assadi Zidabadi were arrested yesterday.

1850 GMT: On the Nuclear Front. It looks like Iran will get the all-clear on the second uranium enrichment plant near Qom, which caused such a fuss when it was “outed” by Western countries in September after Tehran notified the International Atomic Energy Agency.

IAEA head Mohammad El Baradei said inspectors found “nothing to be worried about” in their visit in late October. “The idea was to use it as a bunker under the mountain to protect things,” in contrast to the open-air enrichment plant at Natanz, El-Baradei said. “It’s a hole in a mountain.”

El Baradei also said he was examining possible compromises to resolve the draft Vienna agreement on third-party enrichment, which Tehran balked at signing.

1830 GMT: Pedestrian, who often drops in on the EA comment section, offers an overview of 13 Aban and ponders, “What Now?”:

Mousavi keeps referring to “social networks” and “communities”. The trick with that is that it makes individuals much more vulnerable. If people were to begin organizing events in their own community, they would be giving away their privacy: their address and their name could be identified. Any antagonist in the neighborhood could easily blow up their efforts. Before the revolution, people met in mosques. Each neighborhood has a mosque. Now, at least from rumors we hear, people might have even been held up in mosques. Whether these rumors are true or not, mosques are no longer an alternative (and amen to that!).

Be it in schools, in neighborhoods, at work – it seems to me as if smaller group activity may be a better alternative from now on.

1645 GMT: Catching Up. We’ve finally had a moment to post the English translation of a written interview with Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, on the eve of 13 Aban, on the 1979 US Embassy takeover, Iran’s relations with the US, Russia, and China, and the state of the Iranian Government.

We’re also posting the best of a steady stream of videos coming into us.

1545 GMT: A Crisis for Khamenei? Chris Emery, responding to this morning’s analysis by Mr Smith, asserts that 13 Aban was “a major blow to Khamenei’s authority”. (We also have Mr Smith’s reply.)

1345 GMT: Radio Zamaneh reports that families of those detained yesterday have clashed with security forces in front of the Vozara detention centre. It is also reported that the families blocked a bus taking detainees from Vozara to Evin Prison.

1340 GMT: The Regime Strategy. I think the response to 13 Aban may now becoming evident. While there is uncertainty over President Ahmadinejad’s speech (some outlets quote Fars News as saying it will be on Saturday) and the general political response, the Government persists in trying to break the Green movement through arrests. A reliable Iranian source is passing on steady information about the detentions of student activists.

1330 GMT: Yes, State Media Setback. A follow-up to our 0745 entry: Press TV is now posting about a demand from Al-Alam, Iran’s state Arab-language satellite channel, for an explanation from its Saudi hosts as to why it was taken off the air.

1300 GMT: Not So Weak. In a sign that the regime will press ahead with a heavy hand to deter opposition, it has been announced that Behzad Nabavi, a senior member of the reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party, will appear in Revolutionary Court on Sunday. This follows yesterday’s hearing for two other post-election detainees, former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi and journalist Hengameh Shahidi.

1050 GMT: Weak. What is striking about the “official” reaction to the 13 Aban protests is its relative lack of strength. Because they are not acknowledging and indeed featuring the opposition, as Press TV has, other outlets seem to be stumbling in their attempt to wish away the protest.

Fars News is no longer playing up its hostile recognition of the marches, blaming Hashemi Rafsanjani’s son for leading 50-100 “goons” (and explaining that Mehdi Karroubi arrived at an empty 7 Tir Square after the goons were shooed away by Iranian security forces). Instead, it features an interview a member of the Confederate Party of Islamic Clergy who praises youth for being ready to stand against the arrogance of internal and external enemies. The strategy of the Islamic Republic News Agency is to focus on President Ahmadinejad’s hosting of the Emir of Qatar.

Of course, this could all change with a forceful speech by President Ahmadinejad. For now, however, Is sense uncertainty.

1045 GMT: An Iranian reporter working for Agence France Presse was arrested during yesterday’s demonstrations. The whereabouts of Farhad Poulardi are unknown.

0845 GMT: How the Green Wave Swept Over Press TV.

This was the opening of the state media’s English-language report on its website at 1115 GMT, “Iranians mark US embassy takeover”:

Rallies marking the 30th anniversary of the US Embassy takeover in Tehran have started in capital Tehran as well as other cities across the country.

Tens of thousands of people from all walks of life and many political persuasions have staged a rally at the site of the former US embassy in Tehran, better known in Iranian history as the ‘Den of Spies’.

But this was overtaken by the opening of the report posted at 1930 GMT, “Opposed rallies on US Embassy takeover anniversary”:

Thousands of supporters of defeated presidential candidates, Mehdi Karroubi and Mir-Hossein Mousavi, have held a rally in the Iranian capital as the country commemorated the 30th anniversary of the US Embassy takeover.

The main anti-government rally took place at a central square in Tehran on Wednesday, November 4, our correspondent Leila Faramarzi reported.

It was only in the 5th paragraph that the article noted, “Tens of thousands of Iranians took to the streets to commemorate the day, dubbed as the national day of fighting global arrogance.”

0745 GMT: State Media Setback? Egypt’s Middle East News Agency reports that Iran’s Arabic-language satellite TV channel, Al-Alam, has been taken off the air by two Arab-controlled satellite companies.

The official explanation form Nilesat and Arabsat is “breach of contract”, but there according to Egypt’s MENA news agency, but there is speculation that Arab governments want to curb the reach and influence of the channel.

0740 GMT: Complementing our correspondent Mr Azadi’s eyewitness report, the Green Freedom Wave has also posted a detailed summary of events throughout Iran yesterday.

0725 GMT: We start this morning with an apology. 13 Aban was notable not just for the events in Iran, but for the birthday of the daughter of one of our correspondents. In the flurry of events, we forgot to offer our best wishes.

Our correspondent noted, “I used to be happy she was born on 13 Aban because it marked my defiance of the Americans. Now I am happy because it coincides with another movement.” But will there be celebrations today as well? We’ve posted an analysis by Mr Smith and a first-hand account from the streets of Iran. We’re hoping another analysis will follow this morning, and we’ll posting more videos that have emerged.

At the moment the biggest buzz, at least for CNN, is that President Ahmadinejad will be giving a televised speech. No clues yet as to content. Unsurprisingly, no sign either of the opposition’s next move, as breath is caught after yesterday’s emerging if partial triumph.

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2015 GMT: 13 Aban Does Not Exist. Homy Lafayette offers more detail on the Government’s order to state media to “refrain from disseminating any news, photo, or topic which can lead to tension in the society or breach public order” during the demonstrations on 13 Aban (4 November).

The article includes an English translation of the document, issued by Deputy Culture and Islamic Guidance Minister Alireza Malekian.

1810 GMT: Iran’s Nuclear Manoeuvre. If this story from Press TV is accurate, then Tehran is haggling over the details of third-party enrichment, rather than walking away from the deal.

The article re-quotes the source who spoke to Al Alam TV (see 1015 GMT), “Iran will announce its response to the proposal put forward by [International Atomic Energy Agency] Director-General [Mohamed] ElBaradei on Friday, October 30.” The official added that Iran did not want to send 80 percent of its uranium stock in a single shipment to Russia, as set out in the deal from the Vienna talks: “Iran as a uranium buyer knows best how much uranium, enriched to a level of 19.75 percent, it needs [for its medical research reactor]; based on this argument, it will raise certain issues with this proposal.”

In other words, Tehran will insist on a lower amount of uranium — currently, the deal is for 1.2 million out of 1.5 million tonnes — being sent to Russia in the first shipment. More would be delivered for enrichment as the medical reactor required new supplies.

The report is seconded by the head of Parliament’s Foreign Policy and National Security Commission, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, “Iran can send the scheduled amount in separate shipments so that its fuel supply [provided by foreigners] is guaranteed….Iran can send only a part of its stockpile … and then as it receives its 20 percent enriched fuel it will send the next portion.”

A word of caution on this interpretation: Boroujerdi is close to President Ahmadinejad and is putting the pro-deal view. It is unclear whether the dissenting voices such as Ali Larijani (and possibly, behind Larijani, the Supreme Leader) have come around to this position.

1750 GMT: Back from a teaching break to find that Rooz Online, following up a story prominent on the Internet this morning, has published details of an alleged Government order to censor and possibly shut out any news of mass demonstrations on 13 Aban (4 November).

1230 GMT: As reports continue to come in, with claims of 1500 students protesting at Azad University in Tehran, we’ve posted the first video footage.

1020 GMT: Reports that students gathered to demonstrate at Tehran University but are being forced to move by security forces.

1015 GMT: Reuters is reporting, from Iran’s Al-Alam television, that Iran will accept the uranium enrichment agreement but will demand changes. The source is an “unnamed official” who indicates Iran’s reply will be made within 48 hours.

0810 GMT: Detentions, Concerns, and Hunger Strikes. Human Rights Activists in Iran has posted a summary of latest developments regarding post-election detainees. Included is the information that journalist Henganeh Shahidi and student Payman Aref have started hunger strikes.

0800 GMT: Myth, Imprisonment, and “Velvet Revolution”. We’ve just posted more on the jailed Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh and the regime’s accusations and tactics with the claim of foreign-directed regime change in

0715 GMT: A reader has pointed us to a report posted by CNN on a prison riot in Karaj, west of Tehran, on Sunday. Interestingly, the story comes from the National Council of Resistance in Iran, the opposition movement headed by Maryam Rajavi and linked to Mujahedin-e-Khalq.

0635 GMT: Meanwhile CNN International (broadcast, not website) is focusing on a peripheral story. Pakistan detained and has now released 11 Iranians who crossed the border yesterday. The original line was that the detainees were Revolutionary Guard members, possibly pursuing or looking for leads on those linked to last week’s bombings. Pakistan, probably after discreet talks with Tehran, is now calling the wanderers “security guards”; Press TV portrays them as “border police” pursuing smugglers.

0630 GMT: Now The Washington Post has picked up on the effect of the internal debate on the enrichment agreement (and vice-versa) with an overview by Thomas Erdbrink, “Iran officials appear split on nuclear plan”.

0600 GMT: One of the standing rules for analysis, when students and I consider US foreign policy, is that what happens overseas cannot be separated from what happens at home.

So it is proving — and may prove in a significant way in the next 72 hours — in Iran.

Tensions over the decision on the uranium enrichment deal are now beyond simmering and openly bubbling. Even this weekend, all the signals from the Iranian Government were that it would work out any issues and sign the proposal, with a significant portion of Iran’s uranium stock going to Russia for enrichment, by Wednesday or Thursday. Now, all bets are off.

Readers took yesterday’s analysis of the possible conflict between the Supreme Leader and President Ahmadinejad to a new level with their comments, but this morning I still find myself with questions rather than answers. The straightforward explanation would be that the Supreme Leader, working through the statements of Parliamentary leaders like Ali Larijani and Mohammad Reza Bahonar, is now blocking agreement. But, if so, why did he apparently endorse “engagement” to the point where the deal was almost struck? What could be the calculation in approaching the International Atomic Energy Agency, and thus Washington, in the summer and now walking out on the deal at the 11th hour?

Other theories from our readers include an Iranian “good cop, bad cop” act which would allow Ahmadinejad to portray himself as the guy who wanted to work with Obama but had to give way to Ayatollah Khamenei and the Iranians walking out of the arrangement because their ploy — getting uranium for the medical reactor enriched for free while retaining enough of their stock to pursue other programmes — hasn’t yielded enough of a result.

Fortunately for my confusion, if not the general situation, there should be some clarification by Friday. Iran can’t spin out the post-Vienna deliberations beyond the weekend, given that the US has already let last Friday’s deadline slide in expectation of a Tehran decision within a few days. So it’s accept, reject, or try to bring the “5+1″ powers back to the table for talks.

And that declaration from Iran will in turn give the US Government, as well as the European powers, Russia, and China, a somewhat paradoxical choice. If Tehran does not sign the enrichment agreement, does the Obama Administration continue engagement, possibly strengthening the Iranian President against his own Supreme Leader? Or does it walk away (or is forced away by Congressional and public hostility to any more talks), now watching an internal Iranian situation in which Washington is no more than a bystander?

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2055 GMT: Reports that writer and blogger Ali Pirhousienlou and hsi wife Fatemeh Sotoudeh have been arrested.

1930 GMT: In addition to the assassination of the Assembly of Experts member (1750 GMT), it is reported that the Chief Prosecutor in Kurdestan has been shot.

1845 GMT: Tomorrow’s march routes for Mashhad and for Rasht have been posted.

1750 GMT: In the latest of a series of assassinations in the province, the Kurdistan representative on the Assembly of Experts was killed today.

1705 GMT: An EA source sends us this from a Tehran resident: “People will come out but many are also leaving Tehran as it is a long weekend. Saturday is half closed and Sunday is a holiday. Many who participated in previous demonstrations are leaving Tehran or have left already and many are much scared of what happened to their colleagues, friends and other citizens.”

1640 GMT: The Marches. Iranian activist HomyLafayette has posted the routes for tomorrow’s marches in Tehran (7 routes ending at the University of Tehran; start at 10 a.m. local time; 0530 GMT), Isfahan, and Tabriz.

1545 GMT: Radio Farda reports that Mohammad Maleki, the former chancellor of Tehran University, has been charged with acting against Iran’s national security. Maleki, who is 76 and suffering from prostate cancer, was arrested on 22 August.

1410 GMT: Mehdi Mousavi-Nejad, the brother of the wife of detained former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, has been arrested.

1310 GMT: Lemming MediaFail. Adding to NBC’s threatened ludicrous journalism at the court of President Ahmadinejad (see separate entry), Reuters offers a spectacularly bad headline, “Iran opposition leaders to attend anti-Israel rally”.

And in case you think that this is a slip-up and they do realise that the main reason for marching tomorrow is to maintain pressure on the Government, they repeat in the article, “Defeated presidential candidates Mirhossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi said they would attend the anti-Israel rally.”

1305 GMT: The Government Warning. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has issued its threat through the Islamic Republic News Agency: “We are warning people and the movements who want to help the Zionist regime that if you seek any disruption or disorder during the glorious Quds Day rally, you will be decisively confronted by the courageous children of Iran….The enemies of the regime and the revolution and those who were defeated in the recent election are trying to take revenge for what happened on election day.”

The IRGC claimed that dissent is part of a plan by “foreign networks, especially the Zionist regime’s intelligence service to create disruption and division in the people’s united movement.”

1300 GMT: The Plan. Mehdi Karroubi’s office has announced that the cleric will leave his offices at 11 a.m. local time tomorrow to march to 7 Tir Square for the Qods Day rally.

1240 GMT: Well, Well. The Internet is buzzing with reports of a visit by Mir Hossein Mousavi to Qom on Tuesday night, where he met Ayatollah Sane’i, Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, the brother of Ayatollah Montazeri, Ayatollah Mousavi-Tabrizi, and the representative of Iraq’s Ayatollah Sistani. Mousavi also participated in a meeting of the Association of Teachers and Researchers of Qom.

We are confirming the exact date of the trip.

1030 GMT: Going After the Children. Confirming news we received last night: Mehdi Mirdamadi, the son of Mohsen Mirdamadi, the Secretary-General of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, was arrested last night. Mohsen Mirdamadi has been detained since shortly after the election.

Hossein Nourinejad, head of the information committee of the IIPF, and IIPF member Mehdi Mahmoudian have also been arrested.

1015 GMT: Credit to The Guardian of London, who have been running some interesting analysis on their website (though, unfortunately, not in the print edition). This morning Ranj Alaaldin and Nicholas Zanjani offer thoughts on “Ahmadinejad’s desperate gamble”, believing that his “administration depends on a redistribution of wealth for support and the flight of capital from Iran will hurt”.

The article may be over-dramatic — “As money continues to reverse course and leave the pockets of his supporters, those who voted for Ahmadinejad are being left to wonder why the government deserves their continuing loyalty” — but it does raise the point, overlooked by most in the media but pressed on EA by Chris Emery, that the long-term weakness for the Government and possibly the regime lies in their management of the economy.

0800 GMT: MediaWatch. The New York Times focuses on “Iran Opposition Leader Sidelined from Rally”, in what Robert Worth sees as “a striking break from precedent that suggests the country’s hard-line leaders fear the event could turn into an opposition rally”. Borzou Daragahi runs the same story in The Los Angeles Times but turns the analysis into “the declining influence of Iranian moderates within the political elite”. The Washington Post, with its preference for worry over Iran’s nuclear programme, has nothing this morning.

Some of the broadcast media have now wandered from poor to terrible. NBC Television’s staff have been shouting about their “exclusive” interview with President Ahmadinejad, to be broadcast in a few hours, but they have no apparent knowledge of Qods Day. CNN’s Twitter posse have just proclaimed that they’ll be following Qods Day. Last news story on the CNN website from inside Iran? 11 September.

0550 GMT: Looking towards the speeches and rallies on Qods (Jerusalem) Day on Friday, we’ve posted an analysis in the form of an important question, “What are the Green Movement’s Goals?” Later this morning, we’ll post an overview of the Qods Day marches by Meir Javedanfar.

Catching up with a couple of developments from yesterday:

An EA correspondent notes that the Rafsanjani interview downplaying his forced withdrawal from Qods Day prayers, summarised in Wednesday’s updates, was carried by Al-Alam, the Arabic-language service of Iran’s state television. The correspondent notes, “Why Rafsanajani chose to grant them his first post-electoral interview could be subject of speculation. Maybe he was told to tell the Arab world that Iran is not imploding?”

And a warning sign for Friday: Mowj-e-Sabz reports that Basiji militia in the town of Varamin have been distributing leaflets calling on their forces to converge on Tehran.