UPDATE (19 June): Small World News have posted their second audio, an interview this morning with an Iranian eyewitness reporting on the Thursday demonstration in Tehran, the forthcoming Friday prayers, and the plans for a large Saturday protest.
Our friends at Small World News, who broke new ground with “Alive in Baghdad” and “Alive in Gaza”, have just posted their first recording with an Iranian witness to events. The three-minute interview can be heard here.
11:50 p.m. When Hamas Isn’t Extreme Enough….Make of this what you will. The Israeli Defense Forces say today’s bombing that killed an Israeli soldier was carried out by “an extremist pro-Iranian group, which espouses a militant ideology that surpasses even Hamas’ positions in its opposition to Israel. The group receives direct support from Tehran, but is connected in various ways to Hamas as well.”
The same article states that a group called the “Jihad and Tawhid Brigades” — “an Islamist group affiliated by Al Qa’eda” — called Ramattan TV to claim responsibility for the attack.
So we have an attack supposedly carried out on Israel by “extreme Islamsts”-Al Qa’eda-Hamas-Tehran. The perfect terrorist storm or the perfect information campaign?
A quick search turns up reports that “Jiwad and Tawhid Brigades” were formerly led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a leader of the Iraq insurgency who was killed by US forces in June 2006.
11:40 p.m. Turkey continues to manoeuvre for a Middle Eastern re-alignment in which Hamas is a recognised political party. Foreign Minister Ali Babacan urged the Gazan leadership through Turkish newspapers, “”Hamas should make a decision. Do they want to be an armed organisation or a political movement?” At the same time, Babacan pointed noted Hamas’ support, “The party supported by Hamas got 44 per cent of the votes in the last elections. It is impossible to ignore this base.”
10:10 p.m. So We’re Hopeless at Diplomacy but….The European Union on Monday put itself firmly behind the US- and Israeli-led plan to block arms shipments to Gaza: “”The EU welcomes the commitment of the United States to contribute to stopping arms smuggling into Gaza and is prepared to identify ways to cooperate in such efforts.”
An internal EU paper proposed that European help could include training of security forces, provision of necessary specialised equipment and, a curious and unclear provision, “the creation of alternative incomes”.
10 p.m. President Bashir al-Assad, pressing his advantage from Syria’s position in the Gaza conflict, has said that there can be talks with Israel but only on Damascus’ terms, “If whoever is elected in Israel won’t be willing to pull out of the Golan Heights, there will be no negotiations.” He added:
We held talks with Israel over recent weeks, but Israel did not convey its commitment to peace talks, and it became clear that they only understand the language of force.
Assad took a no-cost shot at outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, “If Olmert were to come to me today and say that he was ready for peace, what could we tell him? We would tell him that he is a criminal and that we don’t talk to criminals.”
And the sharp-eyed might care to notice Assad’s choice of outlet for his statement: Hezbollah’s Al-Manar Television.
5:30 p.m. Thanks for joining us today. It’s a bit early for a Day 1 Assessment, as there may be developments in the next few hours while we have some downtime. As expected, Obama made the high-profile announcement of Guantanamo’s closure, although the impact was limited by the 12-month timeframe (a concession to the political and legal obstacles to shifting the detainees). He made the first symbolic step of US re-entry into the Israel-Palestine arena with calls to Ehud Olmert and Mahmoud Abbas — the expected appointment of George Mitchell as special envoy is still awaited. On the bureaucratic front, Hillary Clinton’s confirmation as Secretary of State came through.
The most significant event, however, was the National Security Council meeting with top military commanders over Afghanistan and Pakistan. And, as I type this, still no news — no spin, no leaks, no hints — of what steps will be confirmed. Similarly, the re-affirmation of a 16-month timetable for US combat troops from Iraq still hasn’t been made.
12:10 a.m. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has reported to the UN Security Council after his trip to Gaza and Israel, and he’s just a bit upset. Speaking about (or rather having his deputy speak, as Ban had lost his voice) the “several incidents of outrageous attacks against U.N. facilities,” Ban said, “I expect to receive a full explanation of each incident and that those responsible will be held accountable for their actions.”
This does not make up for the UN leadership’s impotence in this conflict — Ban admitted a “collective political failure” — but at least it shows that, once he realised how badly Israel had damaged his facilities and threatened his staff, Ban could put his de facto support of Tel Aviv into a critical context.
10:20 p.m. Trying to counter Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni’s courtship of European nations to join Israeli effort to isolate Hamas further, Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal has made his own appeal: “I tell European nations … three years of trying to eliminate Hamas is enough. It is time for you to deal with Hamas, which has gained legitimacy through struggle.”
Meshaal may have an opportunity. France, rather quietly, indicated Tuesday that it may be ready to talk to Hamas, even in advance of the organisation’s recognition of Israel.
Late evening update (2 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): Relatively quiet on all fronts the last few hours. A hectic diplomatic day but a comparatively quiet military day, as Israeli troops battled with “at least 20 armed gunmen” Friday and five civilians were wounded when 15 rockets were fired into southern Israel.
Everyone is drawing breath, but it will pick up in several hours. Saturday is the day that Israel makes its move and puts all other actors on the spot, as the Cabinet declares a unilateral ceasefire. It is a giant snub to “world opinion”, saying that Tel Aviv doesn’t need an international agreement to get its political and military objectives. Gaza will still be blockaded, Israel will remain freedom of action to send military forces in whenever it wants, and Hamas will go unrecognised.
The responses of other countries and groups to this move will be critical. Is Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak really prepared to be tied at the hip to Israel, in pursuit of the overthrow of Hamas, even though it may damage Cairo’s position in the Arab world and even threaten internal instability? Will Saudi Arabia continue to stall on meaningful cease-fire efforts or, in light of growing internal concern with the Government position, will it shift towards other Gulf States who are demanding support of Hamas and unequivocal condemnation of Israel? Can Syria and Iran press their diplomatic initiative in forging a new bloc, and can Khaled Meshaall benefit?
And what in the world is Barack Obama doing? Did his people know of the Israeli plans, given Tzipi Livni’s presence in Washington today, and tacitly approve them? Or have they sat so far back that they are trailing behind these developments?
No answers, just a lot of questions. But my speculation is that tomorrow will send a re-alignment of loyalties and objectives that ensures the political battle over Gaza enters a new phase.
1 a.m. Israeli shell hits car carrying senior UN officials, wounding driver.
12:45 a.m. Clarification on the state of play over the Cairo proposals. Hamas says it has presented a “detailed vision” on implementation of a cease-fire, which Egypt will now relay to Israel. Hamas’ conditions include guarantees that Israel will lift the blockade on Gaza, but significantly Hamas is prepared to accept European and Turkish monitors of Gaza border “along with the Palestinian Authority’s security forces and those of the government in Gaza”. (In other words, Palestinian Authority can have a role as long as there are no Israeli monitors.)
Hamas sources say that if Israel accepts the Egyptian proposals, “We will be ready to start (the ceasefire) immediately.”
The situation is deteriorating each day inside the Gaza Strip. I cannot find the words to describe what is going on now in Gaza. The shelling is non-stop from the north and east of Gaza. The Israeli troops are slowly approaching the northern side of Gaza, where the Hamas resistance is still on.
Comments Off 
Entries (RSS)