Chris Emery and another top EA correspondent respond to yesterday’s “The Plot Against President Ahmadinejad” and readers’ question by considering the process for the President’s removal and the political questions that would follow:
EMERY: First of all, we should not overlook that there would have to be another election within 50 days in the case of impeachment. The massive question then would be whether (Mir Hossein) Mousavi would be barred from standing. If he was, then the exercise in restoring legitimacy is worthless. If he wasn’t, then the regime would be taking a monumental step. Can’t see it happening for those reasons alone.
2200 GMT: Your Late-Night Cyber-Treat. On Google, type “Ahmadinejad President of Iran”. Hit “I’m Feeling Lucky”.
2140 GMT: We started this morning (see 0715 GMT) by noting the possible significance of the “reformist” criticisms of Dr Javad Etaat making their way onto Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting. We end today by posting the video of the first part of the interview and an English translation.
2030 GMT: Cyber-Warfare Strike. Hacking the website of Iran’s Hezbollah (Party of God) is one thing. Doing it with the slogan “The End is F***ing Near” is another. And accomplishing it with a diversion to the domain http://www.getasexpartner.com/hiz-bol.htm, well… Let’s just say that Iran’s police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam (see 1220 GMT) may want to get a bigger Internet manual if he is serious about taking on the opposition in a Web slugfest.
1935 GMT: Quality Analysis of Day. Well done, Asadollah Badamchian, member of Parliament: “The assassination [of Professor Ali-Mohammadi] and terrorist operation was a previously planned step in the Green Velvet Revolution.” The movement, Badamchian said, consists of five sub-groups, “each of which are gradually eroding”. Read the rest of this entry »
English translation follows video — many thanks to HomyLafayette:
In the name of God, most gracious, most merciful.
Three points must be stressed concerning the events that took place at the press fair last Friday: One has to do with the circumstances, another with the motives, and the last with myself. Read the rest of this entry »
The key reference is to an alleged letter from Rafsanjani and Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani from Mir Hossein Mousavi on 28 September. This appears to be a reference to the dramatic revelation by Fars News at the end of September of a supposed “National Unity Plan”. In heated debate over subsequent days, it was claimed that this version was at best an early draft and at worst a false document.
It appears that Rafsanjani is trying to kill off any idea that he was associated with this draft initiative. What is unclear — because Rafsanjani makes no reference to it — is whether he associates himself with a second, different “National Unity Plan” that emerged a week later. Therefore, this appears to be a “hold-the-line” letter, holding off Government pressure on Rafsanjani through rumors and deceptions, rather than a political move.
Unfortunately, in the past few weeks, and following the sixth session of the Assembly of Experts, this trend [of mis-information] has intensified. Some media and supporting sites with politically motivated intentions have attempted to publish false news regarding some meetings that have taken place, and even mentioning meetings that have never taken place.
There are also quotes attributed to specific people; some that are true and others false. Of course, they base their political analysis on rumors and create side issues in order to achieve their political goals.
UPDATE 1800 GMT: A reader usefully interjects, “I would like to just remind you that “The Unity Plan’ is not from Rafsanjani and it is from ‘Pro-Government people seeking truce.’”
It’s a fair point, but the reason that this Plan was linked to Rafsanjani was because of widespread chatter, some of it fuelled by Rafsanjani allies, that the former President was the driving force behind the initiative for political reconciliation. Mehdi Karroubi’s letter, published in a separate entry, also works from that assumption.
The overriding point is that we don’t know Rafsanjani’s role in this plan.
UPDATE 1650 GMT: My apologies for a slip-up in the previous entry. There are only eight names listed for the 9-member committee. That is because the 9th spot is for a representative of “political opposition (Mousavi)”
UPDATE 0650 GMT: The names of the proposed nine members of the top Committee in the “draft” of the Plan: Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani (“hard-line” cleric), Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi (former head of Judiciary), Ali Akbar Velayati (former Foreign Minister), Aboutorabi Fard (Deputy Parliament Speaker), Mahmoud Doai (Head of Etalaat News and former Ambassador to Iraq), Hassan Rohani (Rafsanjani stalwart), Masih Mohajeri (editor of Jomhuri Eslami newspaper), Habibollah Asgharowladi (leader of the Motalefeh Party).
It is claimed that the “draft” was written by Habibollah Asgaroladi, M.Mirsalim, M.Bahonar (Deputy Parliament Speaker), M.Nabavi, H.Mozafar, Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel (former Parliament Speaker).
UPDATE 30 September 0640 GMT: No further political developments but events at Fars News indicate that this was an early draft of a plan which the paper, either through poor journalism or an attempt to cause mischief, initially presented as a final, agreed proposal. After posting and then withdrawing several stories overnight, Fars eventually put up a version which explicitly refers to the Plan — similar in its provisions to what we set out below — as a “draft”.
URGENT UPDATE 2015 GMT: There have been curious twists in the story. Fars had now modified its story of the document, saying that it is a “draft” from the Expediency Council. There is no date, no stamp, and no signature. (Note: within the last 30 minutes, the modified Fars story has been pulled from the website.) Read the rest of this entry »
The invaluable Iran Wiki has posted a translation of Medhi Karroubi’s second letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani, published in Persian on Sunday. Reading this, I have no doubt that Karroubi is expressing genuine frustration and anger at Rafsanjani, asking why the former President has betrayed the legimitate demands of the opposition and the cases of those abused in post-election conflict:
I see that [Assembly of] Experts convened and you not only did not bring yourself to utter a word of criticism of the conditions governing the country or make any criticisms in accordance with your duties, but more curiously yet, you were absent at the closing of the session despite the importance that it had in such perilous times. I asked myself, is this the same Akbar Hashemi with that spirit which we saw in him before and after the revolution?
In the name of God, the Merciful, the Compassionate
Ayatollah Hashemi-Rafsanjani
Honorable President of the Assembly of Experts
Greetings
This is the second letter which I have written to you following the recent pseudo-elections to the presidency. Read the rest of this entry »
1940 GMT: Pedestrian offers some additional information on the events at the University of Tehran today. Contrary to our earlier report (0940 GMT), Minister of Science and Technology Kamran Daneshjoo was present. However, as Pedestrian notes from photos of the gathering, the crowd was sparse with almost no students in the audience.
1640 GMT: Getting Serious with Law-Breakers. Two stories showing the Government’s firm and not-in-any-way-nervous response to protest. Drivers who honk their car horns during protests have been warned that they may be summoned to court. Fans attending the biggest match in Iranian league football, the Tehran derby between Esteglhal and Persepolis, should expect special security measures (which, of course, are in no way connected with recent Green Wave protests at football matches).
1635 GMT: Credit to the BBC. Earlier today we were less than charitable about “mainstream” media who did not seem to notice that demonstrations were occurring at Tehran University. The BBC’s main site has posted a story with video.
1630 GMT: HomyLafayette has published an excellent overview of the sell-off of the Iranian state telecommunications company, in which a consortium linked to the Revolutionary Guard took a 51 percent stake.
1620 GMT: The Facebook site connected with Mir Hossein Mousavi has posted an extract from his statement today: “Ironically those who feel defeated in this year’s Qods day events were those who benefited the most from it. They found out in the most obvious way that three months of unprecedented violence not only did not have slightest effect on people’s presence, but rather made it more extensive.”
Mousavi also made an indirect response to those who questioned his appearance at the rally amidst “pro-Government” demonstrators: “In the last Friday of this year’s Ramadan, I was present among those who some of them were welcoming me with their fists and were wishing my death. I was reviewing their faces as we were participating in the rally and I saw that l love them and that our victory is not something that anyone would be defeated in it.”
1610 GMT: The BBC Persian report on the Assembly of Experts plan (1545 GMT) may not mention details but another account does allege that three conditions have been attached to the proposal: 1) no mention of “velvet revolution”; 2) no condemnation of street protests; and 3) no statement of support for the Ahmadinejad Government.
1555 GMT: Excuse of the Day. As long-time readers might recall, Enduring America has a special Swine Flu crisis team. So we were impressed to see the Iranian Government suddenly invoke the virus to close down universities for a week. We are certain that this is an imminent threat, even more imminent than Iran’s nuclear programme, so that the closure has nothing to do with today’s demonstrations. After all, Government ministers said in July that swine flu might delay the start of the academic year, a statement which was entirely unconnected with the political protests that were occurring at the time.
1545 GMT: The Rafsanjani Plan? BBC Persian reports the statement of Hashemi Rafsanjani that he brought ideas from the Expediency Council to last week’s Assembly of Experts meeting for a resolution of the political crisis. Details of the plan were not given.
1525 GMT: It appears that all websites connected with Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi are now down.
1405 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has written another letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani, pressing the former President on how far he and the Assembly of Experts will seek to change the system and its handling of issues including the abuse of detainees (the subject of Karroubi’s first letter to Rafsanjani in late July) but also privatisations benefitting the Revolutionary Guards, social questions, and the propaganda of State media.
1350 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi has issued a new statement on the “turning point” of the Qods Day demonstrations. He has also argued against further sanctions on Iran, for example, over its nuclear programmes, as the Iranian people have suffered enough under their “coup government”.
1225 GMT: Latest news is dominated by what is coming out of Iran on the university protests. Not that anyone in the “mainstream” media is taking a bit of notice.
It is slowly becoming clear that last week’s Assembly of Experts meeting was the setting for an unprecedented level of dispute and politics. By the end of the deliberations, Ayatollah Ka’abi was circulating a petition for the expulsion of Ayatollah Dastgheib, as Hashemi Rafsanjani tactfully absented himself.
This is the Dastgheib letter (translation by Khordaad 88) demanding the Assembly take over the administration of the Constitution, criticising the suppression of dissent by the regime, and calling for an invitation to Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami to address the clerics:
In the name of the Great God,
To Honorable members of the Assembly of Experts of Supreme Leadership
May I recall several points; I hope that they would be beneficial.
1) Notes on the constitution: We are all aware that our constitution has no contradiction with Quran and the [Islamic] tradition. It is devised by the prominent clerics and the right intellectuals who have had the constitution considered by the Imam of nation (may love and mercy of God be upon him.) Read the rest of this entry »
Chris Emery and another top EA correspondent respond to yesterday’s “The Plot Against President Ahmadinejad” and readers’ question by considering the process for the President’s removal and the political questions that would follow:
Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani’s latest statement, 
UPDATE 1800 GMT: A reader usefully interjects, “I would like to just remind you that “The Unity Plan’ is not from Rafsanjani and it is from ‘Pro-Government people seeking truce.’”
The invaluable Iran Wiki 
1940 GMT: Pedestrian offers 
It is slowly becoming clear that last week’s Assembly of Experts meeting was the setting for an unprecedented level of dispute and politics. By the end of the deliberations, Ayatollah Ka’abi was circulating a petition for the expulsion of Ayatollah Dastgheib, as Hashemi Rafsanjani tactfully absented himself. 
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