Amidst the Nowruz messages inside and outside Iran, Mehdi Karroubi made his contribution yesterday. There was a lot more beside New Year Greetings — Mr Verde analyses:
Karrroubi says that he does not believe in an Islamic Republic which is limited to a few clerics like Ahmadinejad supporters such as Mesbah-Yazdi, Jannati, Shojooni, Hassani, Hosseinian, Ahmad Khatami or an Iran which only includes officials like Ahmadinejad, Mohammad Reza Naqdi, Gholam-Hossein Elham, Saeed Mortazavi, and Jalalladin Farsi (who he says is a murderer). Ridiculing Ayatollah Khamenei’s reference to the “ship of the regime”, he says that the current regime is like a “meagre barge” not a large “galleon”.
2120 GMT: Mahmoud Goes to the Country? OK, it’s not just Internet chatter. EA readers bring me up to speed: in a televised statement on Friday night, President Ahmadinejad set out the possibility of a referendum on his proposal to control $40 billion from subsidy reductions (the Parliament only gave him $20 billion).
And Ahmadinejad wasn’t pulling punches: he said that his “conservative” opponents in Parliament were verging on “treason” with exaggerated statements of the inflationary potential of his plan. Fortunately, he reassured, their economic estimates were not correct.
2110 GMT: Containing the Poet. Another story to pick up — National Public Radio has a profile of 82-year-old Simin Behbahani, the poet who is so dangerous that Iranian authorities seized her passport as she was about to board a flight for an awards ceremony in Paris.
Mr Verde follows up our analysis of the “mystery” of the Assembly of Experts statement/non-statement supporting the Supreme Leader and declaring that time has run out for a seditious opposition.
The Assembly of Experts has been holding twice a yearly for many years. Most of its meetings are behind closed doors. The official reports of the meetings usually included a few set-piece and rather predictable speeches. And they were ignored by most people.
The only notable “news” about the Assembly meetings in recent years was the 2007 election to replace the deceased Ali Meshkini as chair. Until then only one candidate stood in the election and was elected unanimously to show unity. This time, however, there were two candidates: Rafsanjani and Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati.
UPDATE 1550 GMT: And, as the supposed statement of the Assembly seems to have disappeared, here’s another puzzler. The following clerics were not present during the final meeting of the session: Amini, Mesbah Yazdi, Hassan Rohani, Moghtadaiee, Mahdavi-Kani and Mousavi-Jazayeri.
Amini. though conservative, has been reported to be very unhappy with the post-election events. Amini is reportedly in hospital. Hassan Rohani is close to Rafsanjani.Mahdavi-Kani is conservative cleric, with very strong links and possible influence within the regime; he was also reportedly a proponent of the National Unity Plan.
OK, so each may have had a reason to be absent. But was Mesbah Yazdi, perhaps Ahmadinejad’s most fervent backer, not present at a session that supposedly declared opposition “sedition”?
UPDATE 1430 GMT: Let’s add to the mystery. At the beginning of the Assembly of Experts session, Rafsanjani said that Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, the Deputy Chair of the Assembly was not present; instead, his son was attending. (Yazdi Senior also missed the autumn session, saying he was ill, and he tried to resign from the secretariat of the Assembly, but Rafsanjani rejected the resignation.)
Legally Yazdi Junior cannot represent his father in Assembly meetings. So was Rafsanjani making the point that Mohammad Yazdi, a backer of President Ahmadinejad, is so used to illegal activity that he sends his son to represent him? And/or was Rafsanjani diminishing the legitimacy of a meeting “under special circumstances” where non-members could sit in?
When the news came through, it hit like a hammer blow. The Assembly of Experts, headed by Hashemi Rafsanjani, had issued their statement after a widely-anticipated two-day meeting. The 86-member body had declared its loyalty to the Supreme Leader:
The more we go ahead, the more our supreme leader proves his competence. Ayatollah Khamenei shed light on realities in dealing with the post-election sedition and undertook huge efforts in view of bringing unity to the nation.
So far, nothing surprising. Last summer’s possibility of an Assembly challenge to Khamenei is long gone; all “establishment” figures, including Rafsanjani, have circled political wagons around the concept of clerical supremacy (velayat-e-faqih). But then the unexpected:
The revolutionary patience of the Iranian nation and the Islamic Republic ended in December after sedition leaders missed numerous chances to repent and return into the gown of the revolution. Sedition leaders flunked the Dec 30 final exam and they were removed from Iran’s political spirit.
Bam. Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, Mohammad Khatami: your resistance is over. Not just over, forbidden. With that doubly-offered word “sedition”, the threat of arrest had been made, not by the Revolutionary Guard or the Iranian judiciary but by clerics, some of whom were supposedly sympathetic to the opposition demands.
No wonder a prominent (and shrewd) activist e-mailed me, “This statement has me worried. And it takes a lot to get me worried.”
But then the story moves from drama to mystery. Did the Assembly really put down this challenge to Mousavi-Karroubi-Khatami?
The original source for the statement appears to have been Fars News. The Iranian Students News Agency also featured the story but simply summarised the Fars account. However, as far as I can tell, the supposed statement has not been covered by the Islamic Republic News Agency, and it certainly has escaped any mention on Press TV’s website.
So this morning, we are left, not with the certain shock of a once-and-for-all challenge to opposition leaders but with the uncertainty of whether Fars — which has been known to create or distort stories — has been the source of either outright fabrication or the channel for someone (who? take your pick) to “leak” a statement which had not been agreed by the Assembly.
A bit of recent history may be in order. Last summer a statement appeared, in the name of the Assembly, criticising the leadership of Hashemi Rafsanjani and calling on him to step down as chair. The initial reading, given Rafsanjani’s high-profile Friday Prayer speech in mid-July standing up to the Government and the subsequent pressure and threats against him and his family, was that the regime had rallied against the former President.
Not so. Within days, it emerged that the statement had been drawn up by only a handful of clerics and signed by the fiercely pro-Ahmadinejad Ayatollah Mesbah Mohammad Yazdi. A number of Assembly members made it clear that they had no part of the effort, and Rafsanjani remained in his post.
So now, rather than the intended portrait of a regime now united against the opposition, we have the picture — should the speculation of a clumsy propaganda effort be borne out — of a system whose heart is still divided. There will be no resolution.
Forget all the talk and newspaper articles, which EA correspondents like Josh Shahryar took apart on Saturday, about this conflict being settled in favour of a heavy-fisted Government. While the opposition is still considering its next moves, there was more than enough to show that 1) this is far more than a simple narrative of Government putting down the Green Movement and 2) that Government is far from secure in its supposed victory.
First, the less dramatic — frankly, quite mundane — but significant political move. The “ambiguous” Hashemi Rafsanjani is no longer ambiguous. His statement at the Council reaffirmed his basic position of siding with the Supreme Leader, but equally important were his call for unity and the need to make changes to ensure the security of the Iranian system.
2150 GMT: Pep Talks. It is not just Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi talking up 22 Bahman. Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani has issued his second declaration in days, reiterating that “mohareb” (enemies of God) are those beating and injuring people bloodily, not peaceful protesters, and asserting that the military should not interfere in politics.
And Nasrullah Torabi, the prominent reformist member of Parliament, has reassured that 22 Bahman is a national holiday and people do not fear the warnings of hardliners.
2140 GMT: Rafsanjani’s Children and the Regime. Rah-e-Sabzhas an article considering the political and psychological battle around the threat of criminal charges against the children of Hashemi Rafsanjani.
2130 GMT: The Relay of Opposition. Radio Zamaneh has added details of Mehdi Karroubi’s denunciation of the Government and call to march on 22 Bahman (see 1100 GMT). Karroubi has called on fellow clerics to “come to the aid of the people…reach[ing out to the people before all these atrocities [of the Government] are attributed to Islam, Shiites and the clergy” and declared that Iranians on 11 February will try to “stop their promising achievements and goals from falling into oblivion, and demand them with fortitude and an aversion of physical and verbal violence”.
Karroubi asserted, “From one side petty flatterers and from another side worthless extremists have closed the arena onto our scholars, thinkers and learned.” In contrast, the common ground for groups in the Green Movement is their demand for “open elections, freedom of the press, unconditional release of all political prisoners, reform of governance and the judiciary as well as respecting citizens’ rights.”
Significantly, given that the “Western” media was distracted earlier today by the Iran rocket launch (see 1325 GMT), CNN’s website is now featuring the Karroubi statement.
2125 GMT: Blowing Smoke or Playing for Time? Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has said that death sentences for nine political prisoners have not been “finalised”. Doulatabadi’s statement adds to the confusion surrounding conflicting statements between the head of Iran’s judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, who said he would not be pushed into speeding up executions, and his deputy, Ebrahim Raeesi, who gave assurances that the nine would be killed.
2035 GMT: And Another “Monarchist” Death Sentence. Mehdi Eslamian has been condemned to execution on charges of involvement in a bombing in Shiraz and ties to a monarchist group.
2025 GMT: Another Arrest. Kaveh Ghasemi Kermanshahi, a leading human rights activist, member of the Central Council of the Human Rights Organization of Kurdistan, and journalist, has been detained. Read the rest of this entry »
UPDATE 12 October 0845 GMT: EA’s Mr Smith offers his reading of the Foreign Affairs analysis:
“I do not see what this adds to what we knew already. Besides making the silly mistake of identifying Mesbah Yazdi with Mohammad Yazdi, and stating that the former was head of Iran’s judiciary (in reality his real influence and authority are, until proven otherwise, rather limited to “spiritual guidance” of Ahmadinejad), the rest are allegations that have been fed to him after having floated on the Web for months. The Taeb-Jalili-Khamenei trio was floated by Roger Cohen [of The New York Times] in one of his dispatches from Tehran.
The only tidbit that would be interesting, if verified, is the purge of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps and the removal of pro-Mousavi Guardsmen before the elections. That would make sense, and it would be interesting to have real statistics on that.
– Earlier this week Foreign Affairs published an article by Jerry Guo on “the rise of a new power elite” of “the Revolutionary Guard and its allies” in Iran. The article raised points which have been discussed by Enduring America readers for several weeks, considering politics, the military situation, and the battle for control of key sections of Iran’s economy. In addition to Guo’s attention to the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, notice his inclusion of Saeed Jalili, the secretary of Iran’s National Security Council, and the Supreme Leader’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, amongst the “coalition of power”.
Letter from Tehran: Iran’s New Hard-Liners
The headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) are in a European-style palace, replete with Greek columns and a grand staircase, in the eastern suburbs of Tehran. From here, the IRGC orchestrated the crackdown that followed Iran’s disputed presidential vote in June, beating protestors on the street and torturing those behind bars. More ominously, the IGRC and other extreme hard-liners have sidelined fellow conservatives in the Iranian government, carving out their own power base in a regime that is becoming increasingly insular, reactionary, and violent.
1520 GMT: EA’s Mr Johnson goes over the Rafsanjani speech, adding to and correcting our earlier analysis.
While there is no open challenge to the Government, Rafsanjani’s call for unity includes recognition and inclusion of those senior clerics who have offered criticisms: “A measured thoughtful approach can lead to an optimal solution for the problems….The help and support of the Marjas (Grand Ayatollahs ) for the Establishment is absolutely necessary. In the last 30 years we have never had a problem in this regard and hopefully in the future this will not happen again. Threats must stop and small problems that must not be allowed to cause rifts [between the establishment and Marjas].”
Then Rafsanjani manoeuvred behind the general chiding of Ayatollah Khamenei of conflict: “The Supreme Leader has condemned the atmosphere of defamation and confrontation that currently exists….All of us officials must pay attention to these issues so that this atmosphere does not get worse.”
This led to the key passage of Rafsanjani’s strategy of resolution which EA noted earlier: “Currently experienced and concerned individuals of the establishment are in the process of designing a blueprint providing a solution for the current situation….Considering that the University academic year will start soon, these efforts can be very useful, and we must reduce opaqueness from the atomosphere of society and refrain from opaque acts…so that an atmosphere for constructive criticism of society can be created….The supreme leader has emphasized the importance of the law, therefore both officials [a.k.a the Goverment and the Revolutionary Guards] and the protesters must act according to law.”
And so Rafsanjani’s manouevre without direct reference to the issues of detentions and abuses: “Both the officials and the protesters must not expect indifference if they break the law, since lawlessness breeds chaos in society…The supreme leader has also emphasized that the right of people to defend themselves [from accusations] must be observed [and] has prohibited broadcasting the confessions of accused individuals….If any member of the media broadcasts a confession accusing others [that broadcast] is against the law and must be prosecuted. The fact that certain members of the media [irresponsibly] publish whatever they choose is against the law and should be dealt with.”
Mr Johnson also clarifies and corrects our earlier report — it was Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi (not Mesbah Yazdi) who was absent a very well-attended session.
1105 GMT: Speculation of Day. According to witness accounts, members’ turnout at the Assembly of Experts meeting was the highest ever, but the Vice Chairman, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a fervent supporter of President Ahmadinejad, was absent.
1045 GMT: 1030 GMT: More on the Rafsanjani statement, as presented by ILNA:
As expected, it is very clever and very cautious, with interpretation left to the beholder. Rafsanjani upheld the greatness of the Iranian nation on Qods Day, as the “holy and glorious presence” of marchers make clear that the defense of rights would never be forgotten. Iranians were ever-ready to stand up to “imperialists” and their “psychological warfare” trying to reduce Iran to “passivity” ahead of negotiations. The priority for Iranians was the “unity of our country”.
Nothing there to separate Rafsanjani from the Government, especially as the call could be read as defiance of the “West” in talks on Iran’s nuclear question. And the former President’s reference to the recent assassination of the Kurdestan member of the Assembly was a call to support the security forces and judiciary as they investigated and prosecuted such crimes.
But what of the security forces, and the Government behind them, in the post-election conflict? Ahh, there’s the rub: there’s no obvious reference by Rafsanjani on that key matter, leaving his audience — whatever their position on and in the issue — in suspense.
1030 GMT: Gary Sick offers an excellent analysis of a recent poll of Iranians regarding the election and its aftermath. EA’s Chris Emery adds his own take:
I think there are some statistical anomalies with the poll and major methodological problems- there is a perception that the government routinely tap phones and this will affect people’s responses to some degree. There was also a very high refusal rate amongst those called (52%).
In many ways its greatest signficance lies in how it has been read. Those, especially in the West, who cry foul on the methodology will be to some degree influenced by their refusal to accept the unpalatable truth that Ahmadinejad is undoubtedly popular amongst millions of Iranians. On the other hand, I would never use this poll as a litmus test for support within either camp. The situation is simply far more complicated and the dynamics of the current power struggles cannot be accurately drawn out from this poll.
In sum, it is more interesting to watch how it is kicked around as a political football than as a genuine indicator of the relative strength of either Ahmadinejad or the Green’s position.
0945 GMT: The spin is coming in on Hashemi Rafsanjani’s statement at the Assembly of Experts meeting. The Iranian Labor News Agency links a call for unity with a declaration that resolution is imminent: “Those who care about the Regime have devised a plan to get out of current situation.”
0915 GMT: The “Western” media are running with “news” that President Ahmadinejad has claimed that “his country is now stronger than ever and warned that Iranian military will retaliate with full might against anyone who dares attack it”.
This is not news. If Ahmadinejad had told those assembled for the military parade commemorating the 1980-1988 Iraq War that Iran was really weak and its military hopeless, that would be news. The story, however, will set up tomorrow’s coverage of the UN speech: Big, Bad Ahmadinejad and the World That Must Confront Him.
Of course, it’s not like Mahmoud isn’t helping the portrayal: “Our armed forces will cut the hand of anyone in the world before it pulls the trigger against the Iranian nation,” Ahmadinejad said during a military parade marking the anniversary of the start of the 1980-1988 Iraq-Iran war.
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