UPDATE 6 MARCH: Iranian Students News Agency has confirmed the “mohareb” death sentence handed down to Mohammad Amin Valian. Valian’s attorney says the case has not yet gone to appeal.
The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran claims, from a source, that “[Valian's] family is under immense pressure to withhold interviews with the media and human rights organizations….Ministry of Information authorities have promised his family that if they don’t get the media involved, they would somehow secure a clemency for him from the Supreme Leader.”
We still do not have confirmation of the “mohareb” (war against God) death sentence allegedly handed to Mohammad Amin Valian. What we do have, however, are some high-profile politics and religious moves which may point to deeper issues for the Islamic Republic. Mr Verde analyses:
Ayatollah Sane’i, in response to the question: “What are the criteria for identifying mohareb and what are the punishments for it?” has issued a fatwa (decree) on his site.
The fatwa describes what is mohareb (which, from my reading, clearly does not include the actions of protesters, even on Ashura — 27 December). More significantly, it says that in certain conditions when people are protesting for their rights, their defence of those rights is not only permitted, but is obligatory. [Sane'i uses the word “vajeb”, which is a strong word when it is used in fatwas --- for example, "vajeb" is used in relations to namaz (daily prayers), roozeh (fasting in Ramadan), and Hajj (the once in the lifetime pilgrimage to Mecca).]
2200 GMT: The Dilemma. Paused when I read this statement from Trita Parsi: “Here is the central dilemma of Iranian policy: Iran’s greens need time, but Washington does not seem to think it can afford to wait.”
2150 GMT: Political Prisoner News. Reports that journalist Payman Aref has been released for ten days on a $100,000 bail.
2140 GMT: Today’s Super Spy Case. Here is one to watch: Italian authorities have rounded up five Iranians and two Italians (according to Associated Press, the BBC says two Iranians and five Italians), with two more Iranians being sought, on charges of sending arms to Iran in violation of the international embargo. Amongst those detained is the Rome correspondent of Iranian state television, Hamid Masouminejad.
2240 GMT: Just Remember, It’s the Zionists. And the Americans. At the end of a tiring, sometimes confusing day trying to interpret the political signals not only from Mir Hossein Mousavi but from others “within the Establishment”, the simplicity of Kayhan offers a refuge from thought. Here is its front page:
Mousavi’s latest statement was written by Mossad. And the CIA.
That’s that, then. Thanks, guys, for saving me any further need for research. Or reflection. Or sense.
2155 GMT: Another Attack on Mousavi’s Organisation. Kalemeh reports that Mohammad Reza Tajik, a senior aide to Mir Hossein Mousavi, has been arrested.
2110 GMT: Larijani’s Latest. Ali Larijani, the Speaker of the Parliament, continues his tour of the country and his denunciation of the opposition, telling an audience in northeastern Iran: “”In the parliament we have considered such moves [of unrest] like walking on a minefield which would only cause deep rifts and damage the country’s prestige.”
Is Larijani playing bad cop to the conservative/principlist not-so-bad-cop (Rezaei, Motahari) in pressing for a resolution? Is he beyond compromise, setting out “they shall not pass” either as his personal position or as the (unacknowledged) representative of the Supreme Leader?
I leave it to others to work through the possibilities. Just wanted to ponder this: how many times have we mentioned Larijani in the updates in last few days? And how many times have we mentioned Ahmadinejad?
1750 GMT: What Say You, Rafsanjani? As both Mir Hossein Mousavi and conservative/principlist factions make their political moves for a resolution, attention has now turned to a statement by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani at today’s meeting of the Expediency Council, which he chairs. Read the rest of this entry »
Many thanks to readers and EA colleagues who gave valuable feedback and criticism on yesterday’s analysis of the meetings between clerics and Hashemi Rafsanjani discussing moves for a National Unity Plan manoeuvring between the Ahmadinejad Government and the Green opposition.
A basic but, I think, important start to a reply: there is a big difference between questioning whether meetings took place and questioning whether those meetings will be effective.
Almost all the reaction has focused on that second question. Some readers noted, quite rightly, that Nasser Makarem-Shirazi is the only Ayatollah who has gone public, and then in general terms regarding “unity” rather than in reference to the meetings. That’s a fair point, even though we have information that other senior clerics have been involved in the discussions.
Some readers have questioned whether any Plan can get the approval of the Supreme Leader or, alternatively, the Revolutionary Guard.
Again, that is a necessary challenge, but any Plan is likely to be a tactical move against the authority of the President rather than a strategic approach for re-alignment or major change in the Iranian system. The question then becomes not whether Ayatollah Khamenei will defy any proposal revising velayat-e-faqih but whether he will side with the “third way” against Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. (I agree that, if the Revolutionary Guard rather than the Supreme Leader are in charge that even this is problematic, but I don’t start from that assumption at this point.) Read the rest of this entry »
2140 GMT: A Special Note for Closing (and for Opening Tomorrow). In another portion of his press confernce, Iran Prosecutor General Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Ejei took aim at the son of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani: “If there are any charges against Mehdi Hashemi, he should be summoned and his case investigated. If he is found guilty, he should be punished without any mercy.”
Subtext? The Government is pulling out the threats because it is worried that Rafsanjani is up to something big.
And guess what? He is. Tune in first thing tomorrow morning.
2100 GMT: Cyber-Protest. The Green Movement has hacked the website of Gilan University. The homepage still features a protest poster and the slogan, “Green Movement is Alive”.
2055 GMT: Keeping the Students Down. The Government effort to contain student protest continues. Iran’s national student organisation Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat reports that its political director, Abbas Hakimzadeh, has been arrested.
Kohzad Esmaili, head of the Gilan branch of the alumni organisation Advar-Tahkim-Vahdat (Office of Strengthening Unity), has been re-arrested after being freed on $20,000 bail.
2045 GMT: A Non-Crowd Story? While those pre-occupied with the nuclear issue try to read Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s Tabriz speech for signals (see 1425 GMT), the Green movement has other concerns, namely those who did or did not turn out:
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad received a very cold welcome from the citizens. Yoldash, the Green news organisation in Tabriz, reported that, despite the fact that the chief of “popular welcoming staff” of Ahmadinejad assured 100,000 people would be present at his speech today, only about 10-15,000 people participated in this event which can be easily recognized in the pictures taken by pro-coup Mehr news agency.
An EA source says that the Government tried to ensure a large turnout by giving university students, school children, and workers time off and transport to the rally. However, possibly because of the rain, possibly for other reasons, seats remained empty.
1805 GMT: Is Rafsanjani Lining Up with the Government’s Nuclear Proposal? Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has told the Swedish Ambassador to Iran that the International Atomic Energy Agency is legally obliged to provide 20 percent nuclear fuel to Tehran.
Sweden currently holds the European Union’s rotating presidency.
1955 GMT: How to Claim Victory. The Times of London slaps the headline, “Iran bows to sanctions pressure to allow inspectors”, on its summary of the Geneva talks. Hmm…. There’s nothing in the article to suggest an Iranian concession to a meaningful sanctions threat, and having been up-close-and-personal with Press TV tonight, trust me, the Iranians aren’t bowing. Posturing, even swaggering a bit, but not bowing.
1945 GMT: And Now Obama. The President has given his seal of approval to the US line: a “constructive start” but if Iran does not live up to its obligations, US will move to “increase pressure”. He signalled that Mohammed El Baradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, will soon visit Iran. “Hard work lies ahead.”
1935 GMT: The Deal? Meanwhile, the Western media continues to miss the announcement, enthusiastically proclaimed by Press TV, that officials from Iran and the “5+1″ powers will have technical talks on 18 September on “third-party enrichment”.
A further signal why this is important: “Russia is ready to further enrich Iran’s uranium stocks for use as fuel in a civilian research reactor, depending on approval from the United Nations, a person familiar with the matter said today.”
1920 GMT: Hold the Line. As the US Government prepares to consider its position after today’s talks, no doubt in a domestic environment with critics screeching “appeasement”, Hillary Clinton amplified the American statement (see 1753 GMT):
It was a productive day, but the proof of that has not yet come to fruition, so we’ll wait and continue to press our point of view and see what Iran decides to do….We want to see concrete actions and positive results. And I think that today’s meeting opened the door, but let’s see what happens.
1830 GMT: Another twist in the line of Foreign Minister Mottaki over the revelation of the second enrichment plant. Having put forward the case of four Iranian officials and scientists who have “disappeared” since 2007 (see 1350 GMT), Mottaki told the Council for Foreign Relations, “We think in Pittsburgh President Obama was misled based on wrong information and wrong analysis. The wrong analysis was provided by the British. Wrong information by certain terrorist groups.”
It appears that, even though this issue has been overtaken by today’s talks, Mottaki’s statement points to a wider strategy: blame the British for being “hard-line” while praising the US as “flexible” and willing to negotiate if they are not misled by their partners (see 1710 GMT).
1723 GMT: In contrast to the forceful moves by the Iranians, the US post-talk statement is, well, weak: “[Undersecretary Burns] addressed the need for Iran to take concrete and practical steps that are consistent with its international obligations and that will build international confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of it program.”
2040 GMT: We now have an English translation of the Mousavi meeting with the reformists, posted in a separate entry.
1910 GMT: Parleman News has updated and extended its summary of the Mousavi meeting with reformist faction Imam Khomeini Line. The story reiterates the significant shift in Mousavi’s approach that we have noted (1240 GMT, 1615 GMT, 1800 GMT).
1900 GMT: Overseas Mystery of Night. Why is Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki in Washington? I presume it’s to visit the Smithsonian Institution and maybe the National Art Gallery, since the State Department denies he is seeing US officials.
UPDATE 6 MARCH: Iranian Students News Agency has confirmed the “mohareb” death sentence handed down to Mohammad Amin Valian. Valian’s attorney says the case has not yet gone to appeal. 
2240 GMT: Just Remember, It’s the Zionists. And the Americans. At the end of a tiring, sometimes confusing day trying to interpret the political signals not only from Mir Hossein Mousavi but from others “within the Establishment”, the simplicity of Kayhan offers a refuge from thought. 
2140 GMT: A Special Note for Closing (and for Opening Tomorrow). In another portion of his press confernce, Iran Prosecutor General Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Ejei 
2055 GMT: Keeping the Students Down. The Government effort to contain student protest continues. Iran’s national student organisation Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat reports that its political director, Abbas Hakimzadeh, 
1955 GMT: How to Claim Victory. The Times of London slaps the headline, “Iran bows to sanctions pressure to allow inspectors”, 
2040 GMT: We now have an English translation of the Mousavi meeting with the reformists, 
Entries (RSS)