2355 GMT: Just checking in to say we have posted a video of a Tehran University academic defending Thursday’s executions of Mohammad Reza Ali Zamani and Arash Rahmanipour.
1910 GMT: We’re taking an evening break. We may be back for a late-night wrap-up. If not, all the latest news will open our Sunday updates.
1900 GMT: Pressure on Ahmadinejad. The “conservative” campaign against the President’s advisors has not ceased. The high-profile member of Parliament Ahmad Tavakoli has attacked the controversial Deputy Minister of Culture, Mo-Amin Ramin, and Ahmadinejad aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. Read the rest of this entry »
The most interesting spin out of the US in recent days is in a Saturday article in The Wall Street Journal by Jay Solomon, “U.S. Shifts Iran Focus to Support Opposition”.
The headline is a bit misleading, since the core issue is whether (in fact, how rather than whether) the Obama Administration will be pursuing and presenting additional sanctions against Iran: “The White House is crafting new financial sanctions specifically designed to punish the Iranian entities and individuals most directly involved in the crackdown on Iran’s dissident forces, said…U.S. officials, rather than just those involved in Iran’s nuclear program.”
The presentation, however, is telling. For weeks, the set-up for sanctions — for example, in the articles of David Sanger and William Broad in The New York Times — has been that they were essential to punish Iran for breakdown of enrichment talks and Tehran’s move toward a military nuclear capability. Now, for the first time, the message is not just that “rights” should take priority but that there may be a change of power in Iran: “The Obama administration is increasingly questioning the long-term stability of Tehran’s government and moving to find ways to support Iran’s opposition ‘Green Movement’.”
Read it: the authority of President Ahmadinejad is no longer assumed, even bolstered, by the US approach. An Administration source declares, “The Green Movement has demonstrated more staying power than perhaps some have anticipated. The regime is internally losing its legitimacy, which is of its own doing.” Read the rest of this entry »
UPDATE 1000 GMT: The Independent of London offers the “exclusive” that the US commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, will ask for 20,000 more troops in his long-awaited report to President Obama.
Regular EA readers won’t be surprised, as only last Sunday we featured the public-relations offensive by two Administration officials pointing towards an increase of 25,000 soldiers. The question: will the US press for some of the increase to come from NATO allies or will it provide all of the additional forces?
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The post-election situation drags on in Afghanistan, with the result of the Presidential vote descending into a protracted delay amidst allegations of fraud. The electoral commission has now suspended daily briefings, and stories have emerged of a heated row between President Hamid Karzai and President Obama’s envoy Richard Holbrooke, apparently over the attempt of the Karzai camp to alter the vote so the President would be re-elected in the first round.
Our suspicion has been that, for many in Washington, this political quagmire would merely be the backdrop (and indeed the pretext) for an intensified military campaign. Robert Dreyfuss of The Nation shares our fears. Particuarly notable in his account below is the large presence of Bruce Riedel, who helped design the Obama strategy of intervention in Afghanistan at the start of 2009.
Afghanistan Apocalypse
Yesterday afternoon at the Brookings Institution, four analysts portrayed a bleak and terrifying vision of the current state of affairs in Afghanistan in the wake of the presidential election. All four were hawkish, reflecting a growing consensus in the Washington establishment that the Afghanistan war is only just beginning.
Their conclusions: (1) A significant escalation of the war will be necessary to avoid utter defeat. (2) Even if tens of thousands of troops are added to the US occupation, it won’t be possible to determine if the US/NATO effort is succeeding until eighteen months later. (3) Even if the United States turns the tide in Afghanistan, no significant drawdown of US forces will take place until five years have passed. Read the rest of this entry »
Most of the US media are still caught up in euphoria over the proposed Obama strategy on Afghanistan and Pakistan, concentrating on the headlines of expanded US military presence, aid, and civilian participation instead of considering how local groups and communities will responded to an increased American intervention.
Once again, Gareth Porter — who chronicled the internal Obama Administration debates over the strategy — offers a different perspective. Writing for Inter Press Service, He lays out the concerns of those who think that expanded US strikes on northwest Pakistan will enhance, rather than diminish, the position of Al Qa’eda and local insurgents.
Some Strategists Cast Doubt on Afghan War Rationale
The argument for deeper U.S. military commitment to the Afghan War invoked by President Barack Obama in his first major policy statement on Afghanistan and Pakistan Friday – that al Qaeda must be denied a safe haven in Afghanistan – has been not been subjected to public debate in Washington. Read the rest of this entry »
In our analysis today of a possible US “grand strategy” linking its approach on Israel and Palestine to a change in policy on Iran, we speculated, “One explanation for this shift is the long-awaited entry of Dennis Ross, who has long advocated “Diplomacy Then Pressure”, into the State Department.” Jim Lobe takes up the theme:
Ross Is Clearly a Major Player
Since Secretary of State Clinton set out for the Middle East over the weekend, it has seemed increasingly clear to me that Dennis Ross, contrary to my earlier speculation, pretty much got the job that he and WINEP [the Washington Institute for Near East Policy] were hoping for. Not only has he claimed an office on the coveted seventh floor, but Obama’s conspicuous placement of Ross’ name between those of Mitchell and Holbrooke in his speech on Iraq at Camp Lejeune last week strongly suggested that he considers Ross to be of the same rank and importance as the other two. Read the rest of this entry »
2355 GMT: Just checking in to say we have posted a video of a Tehran University academic defending Thursday’s executions of Mohammad Reza Ali Zamani and Arash Rahmanipour.
UPDATE 1000 GMT: The Independent of London offers the “exclusive” that the US commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, 
Most of the US media are still caught up in euphoria over the proposed Obama strategy on Afghanistan and Pakistan, concentrating on the headlines of expanded US military presence, aid, and civilian participation instead of considering how local groups and communities will responded to an increased American intervention.
In our analysis today of a possible US “grand strategy” linking its approach on Israel and Palestine to a change in policy on Iran, we speculated, “One explanation for this shift is the long-awaited entry of Dennis Ross, who has long advocated “Diplomacy Then Pressure”, into the State Department.” 
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