2305 GMT: Back on the Road Again. Off for flight to UK and work in Liverpool so will be quiet for a while. Thanks to everyone for backing up EA on an eventful day.
2300 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Reports that student activist and weblog writer Fouad Shams has been released from prison after 96 days. Saeed Nourmohammadi, a member of the youth branch of the Islamic Iran Participation Front has been freed after 4 1/2 months in detention.
2255 GMT: Maintaining Control. Radio Zamaneh headlines, “Iran’s Supreme Leader May Approve Changes to Electoral Policies”, but the more you read, the more this is an assertion of Khamenei’s authority rather than reform.
Meeting members of the Assembly of Experts, the Supreme Leader said that he will approve the changes in “general policies of the elections” under discussion in the Expediency Council, headed by Hashemi Rafsanjani.
However, Khamenei added that the opinion of the Expediency Council regarding election policies is “debatable”, and once he is informed of their decision, he will enforce what he deems necessary. Hardly a ringing endorsement of the Council’s moves for change…..
2000 GMT: More on Women’s Day. An interesting interview with Parvin Ardalan, winner of the Olof Palme Prize in 2005 it was “for making the equal rights of men and women central to the struggle for democracy in Iran”:
Many of the women’s groups decided after the election not to communicate with the government because it has lost its legitimacy. For example, they collected all these signatures for the One Million Signatures campaign to give to the parliament, but now people no longer want to sign anything because they believe that no demands should be sent to a government that has no legitimacy. The situation has changed – people want gender equality but they don’t think the approach is to go to this government to get it. So currently even the groups that did have contact with the government, no longer do
1900 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has met with reformist students of Tehran University for the second time in recent months.
1850 GMT: We’ve posted the video message of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Iranian women on International Women’s Day.
1845 GMT: Political Prisoner News. An Iranian activist reports that Committee of Human Rights Reporters member Mehrad Rahimi was released on bail this evening. Five other CHRR members are still imprisoned.
1800 GMT: How Does Iran Celebrate International Women’s Day? Building on the news that poet Simin Behbahani was barred from leaving Iran for ceremonies in Paris (see 0835 GMT), Golnaz Esfandiari notes other cases of restrictions of women’s rights in the country.
Indirect Israel-Palestine Dialogue: On Wednesday, the leader of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, found political cover to enter into an indirect dialogue with Israel, as 14 ministers of the Arab League agreed in Cairo that the PA should engage in indirect negotiations with Israel for a preliminary four-month period. The Arab ministers also mentioned that no progress will be possible without a complete settlement freeze, indicating that the four months will be an assessment process.
“Despite the lack of conviction in the seriousness of the Israeli side, the committee sees that it would give the indirect talks the chance as a last attempt and to facilitate the US role,” said Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa.
Netanyahu’s Iran Speech: Speaking to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on Tuesday depicted Iran as a runaway train and the international community as a rail car waiting on the edge. “There is a technological clock and a diplomatic clock. The technological clock is like a runaway train and the international community like a car that is about to decouple.”
On the diplomatic clock, Netanyahu mentioned the Israeli delegation in China and described a “wide range of mutual interests” between Beijing and Israel. Netanyahu stated that he was not successful in obtaining Moscow’s consent to tougher sanctions on Tehran but said he witnessed “more understanding there regarding the dangers the Iranian nuclear program poses to us, to regional peace and world stability”.
Obama Administration’s Next Message to be in Israel: U.S. Vice President Joe Biden is due in Israel on March 8, for a three-day visit that will also include the Palestinian Authority. An Israeli political source has told Haaretz that Biden would like “to make a speech that is important and significant for Israeli-American relations”. The aims of this high-level visit to Israel are to ensure that Israel’s response will be restricted with the diplomatic track and to give a strong “alliance” message to Israelis as President Obama gave in Turkey and Egypt last year.
Netanyahu announced on Sunday that the Cave of the Patriarchs in Hebron and Rachel’s Tomb in Bethlehem (all in the West Bank) would both be added to the list of national heritage sites that the government plans to promote. He said that the rightist religious party Shas persuaded him add the two sites to the list and added:
Our existence depends not only on the IDF or our economic resilience – it is anchored in…the national sentiment that we will bestow upon the coming generations and in our ability to justify our connection to the land.
Following an unproductive Russia visit, a high-ranking Israeli delegation is to leave at the end of the month for Beijing. Both officials will not only talk about the increasing financial cooperation between two countries but also the request for sanctions on Tehran. Haaretz underlines that Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman have not visited China and held no significant talks with Chinese officials on the Iranian issue but have always held meetings with the rest of the 5+1 camp (Russia, USA, Germany, UK, France).
Clinton Talking Iran Sanctions in Gulf: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visits Saudi Arabia and the Qatar this week. U.S. officials hinted Saturday that one way Saudi Arabia could help diplomatically over the Iran issu ewould be to offer guarantees that it would meet China’s oil requirements.
Senator Kerry Warns Arabs: Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry said at a U.S.-Islamic World Forum in Doha, Qatar, on Saturday that “peace may never come if it is now realized now“:
2145 GMT: The Karroubi Story. We’ve worked tonight through the stories, the rumours, and possibilities to post an interim analysis of Mehdi Karroubi’s statement today on “Mr Khamenei” and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, “the head of the government of the regime”.
2140 GMT: In Case You Missed It. Persian2English reports: “Abolfazl Eslami, former Counselor of the Iranian Embassy in Tokyo, writes that he has decided to join people’s movement in light of the Islamic Republics’ violence and oppression.”
1955 GMT: And on the Clerical Front. Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani has renewed his criticism of the regime, asking Iran’s leaders to do “nahy az monker” (repent from the bad way).
1945 GMT: Remember the Economic Front? Most of the management of Bank Melli have been replaced.
1935 GMT: We are hoping to have a thorough, on-the-mark analysis, from an EA correspondent with excellent sources, of the Karroubi statement about 2130 GMT. (To be blunt, I got it wrong earlier today, but I think, thanks to a lot of help, we’ll have the best possible reading by the end of tonight.)
Meanwhile, another piece of evidence to put into the mix, indicating that Karroubi is not recognising Ahmadinejad as President but merely as a “selected leader”. He told Rah-e-Sabz that he stood by his comments, but the people have problems which must be solved by the government, which is responsible for the situation. He repeated a statement he had made to an English newspaper: “I am convinced that Ahmadinejad will not stay for four years.” Read the rest of this entry »
Juan Cole is scathing about the most recent political effort by the Obama Administration in Pakistan:
Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates’s trip to Pakistan this weekend has in many ways been a public relations disaster, and I think it is fair to say that he came away empty-handed with regard to his chief policy goals in Islamabad. Getting Pakistan right is key to President Barack Obama’s policy of escalating the Afghanistan War, and judging by Gates’s visit to Islamabad, Obama is in worse shape on the AfPak front than he is even in Massachusetts [after the unexpected Republican victory in the US Senate vote]. Since he has bet so heavily on Afghanistan and Pakistan, this rocky road could be momentous for his presidency.
The Pakistani public has a widespread resentment against US incursions against the country’s sovereignty (64% say the US is a danger to the country’s stability). But it also has a sort of paranoid obsession with Blackwater, which they suspect of covert operations to disrupt security in the country (i.e. they blame Blackwater for bombings that Americans see as the work of the Taliban). Thus, Gates’s statement produced a media frenzy. (Jeremy Scahill has alleged in The Nation that Blackwater is in fact in Pakistan in a support role to CIA drone attacks in the country’s mountainous Northwest on Taliban and al-Qaeda targets).
2305 GMT: Back on the Road Again. Off for flight to UK and work in Liverpool so will be quiet for a while. Thanks to everyone for backing up EA on an eventful day.
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