Gary Sick, an official in the Ford, Carter, and Reagan Administrations and now a professor at Columbia University, was a key participant earlier this month in a Harvard University simulation of US-Iran relations. His conclusion, published in The National: “Is the United States really going to proceed with Iran on the basis of a sanctions policy that has consistently failed? One hopes that the Obama administration can demonstrate more imagination and agility than its Harvard namesakes.”
(David Ignatius also has a column on the event: “The simulated world of December 2010 looks ragged and dangerous. If the real players truly mean to contain Iran and stop it from getting the bomb, they need to avoid the snares that were so evident in the Harvard game.”):
Can the United States forge a mutually constructive relationship with Iran? Can a global superpower find a way to persuade a recalcitrant and paranoid regional power to enter the community of nations as a responsible participant?
For 30 years, both America and Iran have answered those questions with a resounding no. The United States has historically taken a coercive approach, which has only driven Iran further into petulant isolation.
Another Sunday, another set of articles and punditry setting out the US can “win” the conflict in Afghanistan. The latest spin is that of the US military supporting a series of local militias throughout the country to defeat the Taliban: this, I presume, is more a signal of Washington’s careful distancing from the perceived weakness of the Karzai Government to sell a troop escalation. The New York Times packages the spin as a report by Dexter Filkins, while David Ignatius openly backs the initiative in his opinion piece in The Washington Post, “Afghan Tribes to the Rescue?”
In a guest column for Juan Cole’s website, William Polk, a former member of the State Department and professor at the University of Chicago, puts forth an alternative: political and economic steps linked to a measured withdrawal of US troops:
In its war in Afghanistan, the United States has come to a crossroads. President Obama will be forced to choose one of four ways ahead. The choices are cruel, expensive and dangerous for our country; so we must be sure that he chooses the least painful, least expensive and safest of the possible choices.
The first possible choice is to keep on doing what we are now doing. That is, fighting the insurgency with about 60,000 American troops and 68,197 mercenaries at a cost of roughly $2,000 a day per person. That is, we now actually have a total complement of over 120,000 people on the public payroll at an overall cost, of roughly $100 billion a year. We can project a loss of a few hundred American soldiers a year and several thousand wounded. Our senior commander in the Central Command, General David Petraeus, tells us that we cannot win that war. Read the rest of this entry »
If anyone in the Iranian Government still believes in the
Washington-directed “velvet revolution”, rather than using it as a stick to beat the opposition, he/she can breathe easy. The driving force for the Obama Administration’s approach to Iran is the quest for an agreement on uranium enrichment.
That ambition is led by the President, and his determination has brought general consensus in an Administration that was arguing over the value of talks earlier in 2009. Broadly speaking, the White House, the National Security Council, and the State Department are all on the same page now. Read the rest of this entry »
Recently I had sharp words for an article by Borzou Daragahi of The Los Angeles Times because it was “so partial, so distorting, so wrong that it verged on sabotage of the demands, aspirations, and ideas of the Green movement”. Daragahi cited a few “analysts” who, more from their personal interests than from knowledge of the opposition, denounced Mir Hossein Mousavi and called on the US Government to recognise the outcome of June’s Presidential election.
Fortunately, in my opinion, Daragahi quickly walked away from that piece, recognising that the 13 Aban protests would be “significant”. However, he has now posted an interview with Karim Sadjadpour, one of the most prominent US-based analysts of Iran, which revives my concerns: “Is Obama administration dissing the ‘green’ opposition movement?” Read the rest of this entry »
The most interesting follow-up to Monday’s meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Obama is in Ha’aretz. In contrast to the non-coverage in The New York Times and the puff pieces in The Washington Post (Howard Schneider: Netanyahu was fantastic; David Ignatius: Obama is fantastic), the Israeli newspaper has the important story:
The Obama Administration is scrambling, against a 4 June deadline, for something to offer the Arab world. And the prospects aren’t looking good. Read the rest of this entry »
The always excellent Dan Froomkin, blogging for The Washington Post, captures a lot of what I was trying to say — but finding it difficult because of anger and sadness — this morning. Drawing on other analysts as well as Obama’s own words, he takes apart the six excuses for refusing the court order to release the photographs of detainee abuse:
Deconstructing Obama’s Excuses
In trying to explain his startling decision to oppose the public release of more photos depicting detainee abuse, President Obama and his aides yesterday put forth six excuses for his about-face, one more flawed than the next.
First, there was the nothing-to-see-here excuse. In his remarks yesterday afternoon, Obama said the “photos that were requested in this case are not particularly sensational, especially when compared to the painful images that we remember from Abu Ghraib.” Read the rest of this entry »
President Obama convened a crisis meeting at the White House last Monday to hear a report from Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who had just returned from Pakistan. Mullen described the worrying situation there, with Taliban insurgents moving closer to the capital, Islamabad.
“It had gotten significantly worse than I expected as the Swat deal unraveled,” Mullen explained in an interview.
This morning, I was catching up with the newspapers when a friend/reader Skyped about our recent item, “Dick Cheney’s Fox Interview and the Defence of Torture”: “Surely there must be some date by which I can hope to never ever see Cheney’s face on EA again.”
While I could understand the sentiment, it also brought on depression about how this torture discussion will probably “go away”. The barrage of news stories and commentary — now that many in the American “mainstream” media, with the Bush Administration in the rear-view mirror, has decided torture should be noticed — brings on fatigue. Now that Cheney, formerly the most secretive Vice President in history, has decided that he will incessantly shine his own distorted light on “enhanced interrogation”, I have the sense from his smirk that he knows he is wearing us down. Read the rest of this entry »
Gary Sick, an official in the Ford, Carter, and Reagan Administrations and now a professor at Columbia University, was a key participant earlier this month in a Harvard University simulation of US-Iran relations. His conclusion, published in The National: “Is the United States really going to proceed with Iran on the basis of a sanctions policy that has consistently failed? One hopes that the Obama administration can demonstrate more imagination and agility than its Harvard namesakes.”
Another Sunday, another set of articles and punditry setting out the US can “win” the conflict in Afghanistan. The latest spin is that of the US military supporting a series of local militias throughout the country to defeat the Taliban: this, I presume, is more a signal of Washington’s careful distancing from the perceived weakness of the Karzai Government to sell a troop escalation. The New York Times packages the spin as 
1. IT’S THE NUKES, STUPID
Recently 
The most interesting follow-up to Monday’s meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Obama is in Ha’aretz. In contrast to the non-coverage in The New York Times and the puff pieces in The Washington Post (
The always excellent Dan Froomkin, 
A few hours after I wrote Washington’s latest political strategy to isolate Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, I read this 
This morning, I was catching up with the newspapers when a friend/reader Skyped about our recent item, “Dick Cheney’s Fox Interview and the Defence of Torture”: “Surely there must be some date by which I can hope to never ever see Cheney’s face on EA again.”
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