Three weeks has passed since the 22nd of Bahman rally and there have been lots of discussions and comments regarding this rally, what is opinion your about this event?
It is not the first time that the ceremonies of 22nd of Bahman have been held in our country. These ceremonies are in remembrance of rallies in 1979 [and have taken place] in different occasions with more than a million people. Every year people who admire this revolution participate in these ceremonies where traditional institutions such as Mosques or religious assemblies play an important role in organizing the rally. Usually the ceremonies in each year are influenced by important events of the year and the political atmosphere [in the country]. The 10th presidential election and the events that followed it influenced this year’s rally. The government mobilized [large number of people] public employees, using trains and buses from all across the country by spending large sums of money. This was all to neutralize the impact of presence of green movement.
1950 GMT: Criticising Khomeini. That’s right — days before the celebration of the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution, 180 members of Parliament have signed a statement denouncing the Imam’s grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini. The dispute arose when Khomeini wrote the head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ezzatollah Zarghamai, complaining about “censorship” of his grandfather’s speeches.
1930 GMT: Conservative Mischief. Ayande Newsstirs the pot with a story claiming that Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai went to Switzerland recently, not only to promote a “uranium swap” on Iran’s Kish Island but also to pursue secret meetings on other issues, presumably with US officials. The paper, quoting French and Swiss newspapers, ponders what covert messages Rahim-Mashai brought.
No prizes here to guess the propaganda: the “conservative opposition” wants to stick Ahmadinejad, through his right-hand man, with the label of appeaser of Washington.
1925 GMT: After all our frustration with the media coverage of the Ahmadinejad nuclear moves this week, full marks to Borzou Daragahi and Julian Barnes of the Los Angeles Times for nailing the story: “In a possible move to deflect attention from Iran’s political woes, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Sunday ordered the nation’s atomic energy agency to begin enriching uranium from 3.5% to 20% purity to serve as fuel for a Tehran medical reactor.”
1. The immediate and unconditional release of all political prisoners;
2. Providing an open atmosphere for the media and press, recognising criticism, offering justice in use of the national media (state-run TV and radio) for all the levels of people and different political groups;
UPDATE 1555 GMT: Karroubi Clarifies, Repeats, Challenges. From The Flying Carpet Institute, via the Facebook site linked to Mir Hossein Mousavi and Saham News: Mehdi Karoubi, in a meeting with a group of prominent political figures including some of the leaders of reformist parties said:
“Although today they have shut down newspapers, filtered websites, imprisoned many of our dear friends, closed down the office of [reformist] parties including the Etemade Melli office and even my personal office, although they fired shots at my car, although some are threatening everyday and are insulting Mir Hossein Mousavi, me and the great nation of Iran in every way possible and take our words out of content, but I am firmly announcing that I never compromise over people’s rights and one of the main rights of this nation is their votes that they casted in the ballot boxes while trusting the authorities; and I will be with the people till the very end and will try for holding free elections and eliminating current obstacles.”
“I will announce my detailed views regarding the principles of the Islamic Revolution, defending people’s rights and the necessity for holding free elections to the noble nation of Iran soon.”
UPDATE 0900 GMT: Persian2English has published a translation of the Karroubi “clarification” carried on Rah-e-Sabz last night. This was one of the key pieces of evidence behind our analysis, as the Karroubi camp deliberately “fed” this information to a trusted reporter to ensure the widest dissemination:
“It was reported by Fars News, Iran’s official news agency, that Mehdi Karoubi has officially recognized the status of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Mr. Mojtaba Vahedi, advisor for Mehdi Karoubi responded to such claims. Talking to a JARAS reporter, he said: “I talked to Mr. Karoubi and he claims that Mr. Abu-Torabi has uttered some words that are not true.”
According to the advisor, Mr. Karoubi talked in detail about the rigged election. Following his speech, Karoubi explained, “A few reporters gathered around and asked a few questions. I told them that the government has been sworn in and has the responsibility to respond to the people’s needs. In the same interview I stressed that there has been a rigging in the election and I stand by my words. I am not so whimsy to retreat because of insults and threats. But people have daily needs that the residing government needs to respond to. I also told an English paper that they can rest assured that Ahmadinejad’s government will not last four years.”
Karoubi’s last words were: “My words are the words of the nation: where is our vote?”
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EA staff had a conference late last night to go over all the information we have — from websites and sources inside Iran — on Mehdi Karroubi’s statement, reflecting on the Presidential election and his acceptance of Mr Ahmadinejad as the “head of the government of the regime” because it had been decreed by “Mr Khamenei”.
We are watching for further developments today and may revise our analysis, however, for now, here is our reading:
Of course, there has never been a phase in this post-election conflict which has been one of clarity, even over the basic demand — expressed in the march of hundreds of thousands on 15 June — to overturn the result of the Presidential election. This phase, however, has been particularly complex and often confusing, with manoeuvres and statements coming from all directions outside and inside the Iranian establishment.
Mehdi Karroubi’s Etemade Melli party tried to put out a clear signal yesterday that the fight, both over the election and the direction of the Iranian system, goes on. Using the symbolic event of Karroubi’s visit to the family of Ali Reza Beheshti, the detained chief advisor of Mir Hossein Mousavi, the party’s Saham News website declared that the regime had been ignoring the rights of people for years and now did not understand the meaning of the arrests of the arrests of “sons and daughters of the Revolution”. (Ali Reza Beheshti is the son of the late Ayatollah Mohammad Beheshti, a key figure in the 1979 Revolution who founded Iran’s judiciary.) It again cited Karroubi’s case on detainee abuses, which he has pressed since July, with the example of Kahrizak Prison. (English-language summary of the statement)
2200 GMT: And, on the political front, Mehdi Karroubi’s Etemade Melli party has issued a statement calling for the holding of a free election and permission to stage demonstrations.
Etemade Melli, via the Saham News website, repeated that Karroubi had the material to back up his accusations of detainee abuse: “It is necessary for you to know that Mr. Karroubi is standing firm and tall and has evidence for all his comments.” it added in an address to the country’s regime.
2145 GMT: Little hard news tonight, although rumours about Iran’s economic situation continue to swirl. There is also nothing to clarify an increasingly complex domestic political contest.
A Russian banking delegation, headed by the deputy governor of the country’s Central Bank, is due to visit Tehran on Monday, the Iranian envoy to Moscow announced on Saturday.
“Deputy governor of Russia’s Central Bank Melnikov and a number of officials from the other Russian banks will pay a visit to Iran on Monday in a bid to resolve banking issues and facilitate exchange and economic and trade activities between the two countries,” Seyed Mahmoud Reza Sajjadi told [Fars News Agency].
The Russian delegation is scheduled to meet Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Iran Pourmohammadi and managing directors of a number of Iranian banks to discuss ways to expand banking relations between the two states.
2050 GMT: A First Go at Reading Mousavi. Edward Yeranian of the Voice of America writes, “Iran Opposition Leader Mousavi Not Afraid to Die for Reform” (there is also an audio report), and kindly gives us space in the article for a few thoughts:
Scott Lucas…thinks that both the opposition and the government are digging in their heels for a confrontation:
“The five-point plan is not new. [Mousavi] said something similar in around October. [This], therefore, is still a compromise within the system. [However], the other thing that’s important is that the language he uses — before he gets to that [compromise] — about his possible martyrdom is striking: ‘My blood is no redder than those of others in the [opposition] movement, but I’m ready to die.’ [This is] a language of expected confrontation, as opposed to political compromise,” he said.
Lucas also argues that Mousavi may be trying to re-establish himself as the clear leader of the opposition after complaints in recent months that he hadn’t been showing up to lead public demonstrations. Many in the opposition, he notes, have been saying that the “opposition is leading Mr. Mousavi and not the contrary”.
2010 GMT: Explaining the Mousavi Statement (0745 GMT). We’ll ponder overnight before offering an analysis tomorrow of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s political move today. However, we may have gotten clues from Dr. Abolfazl Fateh, the head of Mousavi’s media committee in the Presidential campaign: “Mousavi’s statement is a significant goodwill gesture from his side and an important test for the authorities.” Read the rest of this entry »
When Iran entered 2009, most observers thought that the year — which marked the 30th anniversary of the Revolution that swept away the Shah’s regime and the 20th anniversary of “post-Khomeini Iran”, the unwieldy political arrangement that emerged in the aftermath of the death of the founding father of the Islamic Republic — would also see a lacklustre confirmation of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for a second Presidential term.
As Iran exits the year, it is reeling from its worst-ever political crisis, one that has finally undermined the halo of sanctity built over the persona of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in the past two decades and has finally witnessed the collapse of the fragile factional equilibrium that held sway for the past decade.
After half a decade of carefully pasteurised electoral lists produced by the Guardian Council, there were serious doubts about the population’s appetite for electoral politics. Iranian history, however, always remind us that change is sudden and abrupt rather than gradual and predictable. Conscious of their eroding influence in state affairs and their descent into oblivion in the eyes of public opinion, reformist political leaders were determined to make a last stand, one that had to rely upon the return to the scene of its most prominent figure. Read the rest of this entry »
Mir Hossein’s interview with Kalemeh, translated by Khordaad 88:
2050 GMT: A First Go at Reading Mousavi. 
A special analysis from EA’s Mr Smith:
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