1900 GMT: Former President Khatami has followed up his speech in Yazd Province (1445 GMT) with a strong challenge to the regime on his website: “Be sure that people will never back down. Today, we are living in a world in which no dictator could be imposed on people to force them to be absolute obedient to him. An acceptable government is a government born out of people.” An English summary is in the Los Angeles Times.)
1845 GMT: We’ve posted the full English-language summary of the Mousavi-Karroubi meeting in a separate entry.
1630 GMT: EA’s Mr Smith checks in with a snap analysis of the Mousavi-Karroubi meeting (1430 GMT):
General mood appears to be to be firmness on opposition to government, but strictly within the parameters of the nezam (political system)….They both asked for airtime on national television to air their version of the post-election events. All in all, I think they are attempting to settle in for a more long-term strategy of opposition, one that implicitly relies on sporadic street protests, coinciding with the main “mobilisation” events of the regime. They will keep well within the boundaries of the political system to progressively claw away at Ahmadinejad’s power.
I personally think they reached this conclusion after running out of other options, and frankly it is not quite clear whether it holds at all as a long-term strategy.
1445 GMT: Former President Mohammad Khatami has spoken with an audience in Yazd Province. Criticising violent and brutal acts against reformists and protestors, he warned the Government that, if they do not let critics express their opinions, then the movement will move toward radicalism. (English summary on Facebook page connected with Zahra Rahnavard)
1420 GMT: An Iranian activist is reporting a fourth post-election detainee has been sentenced to death. Hamed Rouhinejad, like Mohammad Reza Ali Zamani and Arash Pour-Rahmani, is accused of belonging to a monarchist organisation carrying out crimes against the state.
Picture of Day. OK, so Hashemi Rafsanjani showed up in the front row of the Supreme Leader’s Eid-al-Fitr prayers near Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but he doesn’t look too thrilled about the President, does he? Captions welcomed.
2000 GMT: The Clerics’ Relatives. More on the Saturday release of the grandchildren of Ayatollah Montazeri (see 0840 GMT). They each had to post $20,000 bail as did the children of Ayatollah Mousavi-Tabrizi and Ayatollah Nazemzadeh.
1810 GMT: Stand by Your Man. In a move overshadowed by Qods Day, President Ahmadinejad has reconfirmed Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as the head of his Presidential office.
This is far more than an appointment. Given the conservative and principlist opposition that forced Ahmadinejad to withdraw Rahim-Mashai’s selection as 1st Vice President, this is a symbol that the President rules within the Establishment. The reconfirmation also comes despite Rahim-Mashai’s recent suspension over charges of financial misconduct.
1455 GMT: Speculation of Day – Khamenei-Rafsanjani Deal? Some Twitter-based Iranian activists have come up with the most intriguing analysis of the Khamenei speech and Hashemi Rafsanjani’s attendance. Read the rest of this entry »
1820 GMT: The Norooz newssite, as well as the main site (see 1550 GMT), is down. Mowj-e-Sabz is up again.
1800 GMT: Will He or Won’t He? Rumours and chatter throughout the day on whether Hashemi Rafsanjani will lead this Friday’s prayers on Qods Day. Entekhab News is one example of the line that Rafsanjani has not withdrawn.
1608 GMT: President Ahmadinejad has appointed Mohammad Reza Rahimi, a vice president during his first four-year term, as his First Vice President.
1600 GMT: Rafsanjani Breaks Cover? If this story is true, this could be an indication that the former President is still allied with the Green movement in the challenge to the Government: the Karroubi website Etemade Melli reports that Hashemi Rafsanjani will resign all his positions, which include head of the Expediency Council and of the Assembly of Experts, if Mehdi Karroubi is detained.
With regards to proposed health minister Marziyeh Vahid-Dastjerdi, [a bloc member] said that “certain reports about her business activities had reached the bloc which altered the opinion of the members about her”.
The Principlist Majlis deputy, who sits on another bloc as well, said about Sussan Keshavarz, who has been offered the education portfolio: “We have heard that she was active in the campaign headquarters of Mir-Hossein Mousavi.”…
The third candidate, Fatemeh Ajorloo, who was picked for the welfare post, was rejected because she “is too good”. “It would be a shame if she becomes welfare minister,” said the unnamed source, presumably because the ministry is due to be disbanded in the coming months.
Meanwhile, the reformist bloc of the Majlis has decided to vote in favor of Vahid-Dastjerdi.
1420 GMT: The Day’s Big (Unseen) Story? I saw this floating around yesterday — the storyinitially came out on the technology site of the Islamic Republic News Agency and then circulated on other Iranian websites — but it is only with the help of EA’s readers (see comments below) that I could put this together.
The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (Revolutionary Guard), which has become just as renowned in recent years for their role in Iran’s economy as for their security function, are set to buy a major stakeholding in the Iranian Telecommunications Agency.
Since 2005, Iran had planned to float the shares of the state company, which is one of three operators in the country. One of the other two is owned by Hashemi Rafsanjani, but its reach is limited to Tehran and some smaller smaller cities. The Revolutionary Guard already have a stake in Iran Cell, so if they were successful in their bid for shares of ITA, they would be in a leading position in Iran’s two major cellphone providers.
This is unlikely to be a case of the Guard showing up with chequebook in hand to buy the shares. Instead, as has been the case with other sectors such as pharmaceuticals and automobiles, the purchase will be made through a front company.
There is also an interesting international twist in this story. Earlier this summer, a Russian company was to be granted a license as the third national cellphone operator, but the process suddenly stalled last month (companies from the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait were also trying to get the license). The effective suspension is probably linked to the high process the Iranian Government was demanding, but it leaves the Revolutionary Guard in an even stronger position in the cellphone sector.
1400 GMT: In Case Anyone Really Cares. The actual address at Friday prayers in Tehran, as opposed to President Ahmadinejad’s introduction, was delivered by Hojetoleslam Sadighi. His headline declaration was that the “world’s exceptional crimes” are the crimes of Israel in Palestine.
1330 GMT: Today is turning into a contest of two statements and, in contrast to recent days, Western media are eagerly on top of the story. Former President Khatami’s statement to reformist leaders is being juxtaposed with current President Ahmadinejad’s speech at Friday prayers.
While there are a complex range of issues in this battle, from the legal issues of detentions/confessions/trials to the institutional challenges of who controls Iran’s bureaucracy and security forces to the political showdown over Ahmadinejad’s legitimacy, it is this sentence from Khatami that may represent the moment: “‘The sacred Friday prayer podium has been given to those who…call for the punishment of prominent figures…while they are accused in the eyes of the public for committing treason themselves.”
Even though Khatami was probably referring to Friday prayers past and addresses delivered by “hard-line” clerics such as Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami and Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, that sentence will be set next to Ahmadinejad’s none-too-subtle call for the arrests of protest leaders.
To put an immediate question: 48 hours after trying to avert a showdown with his own statement, the Supreme Leader finds the confrontation ratcheted up several notches. What does Khamenei do now? Read the rest of this entry »
At the end of a dramatic and surprising day, perhaps one of the most important since 12 June, Muhammad Sahimi of Tehran Bureau offers a concise summary of the 4th Tehran trial. This picks up on a lot of the developments we’ve noted in our live blog, bringing them together in one place. Even more importantly, Sahimi notes the goals of the regime that we’ve identified: 1) to break the reformists through charges of treason; 2) to humiliate Saeed Hajjarian, one of the key figures in the movement; and 3) the objective missed by all others in the Western media, the curbing of Hashemi Rafsanjani:
Stalinist Show Trials, Part Four
The fourth installment of the Stalinesque show trials of the leaders of the reformist movement was held today in Tehran. In this part of the big show, some of the most important reformist leaders were featured, including Dr. Mohsen Mirdamadi, secretary-general of Islamic Iran Participation Front (IIPF), the most important reformist group in Iran; Mohsen Safaei Farahani, Saeed Shariati, Abdollah Ramazanzadeh, Shahabolddin Tabatabaei, and Dr. Saeed Hajjarian, all leading members of the IIPF; Mostafa Tajzadeh, a member of the IIPF and the Islamic Revolution Mojahedin Organization (IRMO), another leading reformist group; Behzad Nabavi, a leading member of the IRMO, and Hedayatollah Aghaei, a leading member of the Executives of Reconstruction Party (ERP), a reformist group close to former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.
Also present in court were Dr. Kian Tajbakhsh, who used to work for the George Soros Open Society, and three of the journalists arrested, Jalal Karami, Masoud Bastani, and Mohammad Quchani, a leading reformist journalist and editor of many reformist newspapers that have been closed by the hardliners. [Overall, 42 journalists were arrested, but some were later released]. Mohammad Reza Jalaeipour, who was a leader of the Mir Hossein Mousavi campaign, and a doctoral student at Oxford University in Britain, was also present in court. The court has apparently ordered the release of Quchani and Jalaeipour before the court session took place, but they were still brought to court for an appearance.
Once again, the prosecutor read a long “indictment” that had been prepared by Saeed Mortazavi, Tehran’s notorious Prosecutor General and the Prosecutor of the Revolutionary Court. Once again, the “indictment” was not a legal document, but a political manifesto of the hardliners, almost all of which had been published over the past few years by the daily newspaper Kayhan, the mouthpiece of the security-intelligence apparatus, and Fars News Agency, which operates more like a propaganda machine.
Once again, the reformist leaders were accused of having links with foreign powers, and in particular Britain and the United States, through a variety of channels, from the Open Society to people who are, or were at some point, supposedly members of western intelligence agencies.
2050 GMT: We’ve posted the English translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s statement today. The text goes beyond our initial analysis (1700 GMT): this is a concerted and, in my opinion, clever attempt to turn the “foreign interference” charge back on the regime. It is the Government’s actions such as detentions, propaganda, and lies, Mousavi says, that makes the Islamic Republic vulnerable to the manipulations of powers such as the United States.
1910 GMT: Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastghaib has asked for an emergency meeting of the Assembly of Experts, saying it is the duty of the Experts to the Iranian people “to maintain the Constitution”.
1855 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has responded to Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani’s statement that he “wanted evidence” of allegations of detainee abuse, contained in a letter from Karroubi to Hashemi Rafsanjani. A Karroubi spokesman said that information would be provided on the charges, which included rapes of women and young boys.
(A side note: it is now being claimed that state media exaggerated Larijani’s statement when it said he called Karroubi’s allegations of rape “a lie” — see 0720 GMT.)
2045 GMT: According to Mowj-e-Sabz, “principlist” members of Parliament have been warned not to criticise televised confessions.
1650 GMT: Muhammad Sahimi at Tehran Bureau offers a thorough summary and analysis of yesterday’s proceedings. The article is particularly effective in depicting the prosecution’s attempt to turn the trial into a demolition of opposition groups by linking them to “foreign agents” and, parallelling our own interpretation, exposing the lack of evidence for these assertions.
We must ask: what has happened in the Islamic Republic of Iran, that prominent Iranians who have served as consultants, presidents, prime ministers, ministers, ambassadors and deputy prime ministers are now according to the prosecutor’s claim ready to conspire with foreign powers to overthrow the Islamic Republic? The claim of the perseution is an attack and challenge to the integrity of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the last 30 years. [Mani's comment: "This challenge is exactly what Rafsanjani means when he refers to 'the cost of questioning the foundations of the establishment'."]
This trial is a symbol of the existence of internal fighting in the Iranian government and has no goal other then the dominance of one part of the power structure over the others. The ones who are running this trial will be forced by public opinion to scuttle it…..Shia theological tradition explicitly states that coerced confessions from an imprisoned person is absolutely immoral and is against the foundations of islamic law and is therefore illegal.
1615 GMT: Best Line So Far on the Tehran Trial. Mir Hossein Mousavi says the proceedings were “sufficiently ridiculous to make a baked tukey laugh”.
1600 GMT: We wrote today, in a separate analysis, about the attempt to use the Tehran trial to portray Hashemi Rafsanjani as an enemy of the regime and of Rafsanjani’s response via his leadership of the Expediency Council. A bit more on the Rafsanjani statement:
1650 GMT: Release the Prisoners! I am just going to re-print this from Fars News Agency and await confirmation that 25 percent of Iran’s prison population will soon be freed:
17,000 prisoners were freed after amnesty and commutation of punishment term of a number of prisoners by the Supreme Leader,” State Prisons Organization’s Deputy Director for Management and Resource Development Mohammad Ali Zanjirehi told FNA on Friday.
“40 percent of the country’s inmates, who account for around 68,000 people, were liable to the amnesty,” Zanjirei said, adding that 17,000 out of the 68,000 inmates have been freed and the rest have enjoyed commutation of their terms or will be granted leaves in final months of their incarceration.
The decree, originally proposed by Judiciary Chief Ayatollah Seyed Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, was issued by the Leader on the occasion of the feast of Mab’ath, marking assignment of Prophet Mohammad (PBUH) to prophethood.
1555 GMT: Don’t Forget That Foreign Threat. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, who has been gone unnoticed since the 12 June election, popped up today to appear at Friday prayers in Tehran and then try his hand with the “foreign agents” speech:
Western and European countries, with their overt and covert capabilities, interfered in Iran’s election… the worst among them being Britain. The countries who interfered through their television networks by telling how to instigate riots, build explosives and other tension creating activities are accomplices in all the committed crimes, murders and are held responsible.
1540 GMT: Some, However, Are Not Ready for Compromise. Defying calls for concilation, the Ministry of Intelligence has threatened the Freedom Movement of Iran (the party of nationalist Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh in the 1950s) with dire consequences if they do not stop holding political meetings inside their headquarters. The Party has lodged an official complaint with the head of Iran’s judiciary.
1535 GMT: Look Past Jannati. The trend in clerical statements in the last 24 hours, apart from Friday prayers in Tehran, has been a call for compromise and action on detainees (see 1510 and 1520 GMT). That fits a report from Salaam News that Grand Ayatollahs have been discussing vital “issues”, and most except Ayatollah Noori-Hamedani (an ardent Ahmadinejad supporter) “have taken a similar stance against the attacks of fundamentalism”. Read the rest of this entry »
1900 GMT: Former President Khatami has followed up his speech in Yazd Province (1445 GMT) with a strong challenge to the regime on his website: “Be sure that people will never back down. Today, we are living in a world in which no dictator could be imposed on people to force them to be absolute obedient to him. An acceptable government is a government born out of people.” An English summary is in the Los Angeles Times.)
Picture of Day. OK, so Hashemi Rafsanjani showed up in the front row of the Supreme Leader’s Eid-al-Fitr prayers near Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but he doesn’t look too thrilled about the President, does he? Captions welcomed.
1820 GMT: The 
At the end of a dramatic and surprising day, perhaps one of the most important since 12 June, Muhammad Sahimi of Tehran Bureau 
1650 GMT: Release the Prisoners! I am just going to re-print this 
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