1400 GMT: The Next Nowruz Message…is reported to have come from Mehdi Karroubi.
(http://bit.ly/bLnMG0)
1245 GMT: Rumour of Day/Rafsanjani Watch. Two features in one, as news flies that Hossein Marashi, a relative and ally of Hashemi Rafsanjani, will be released
within days of his Thursday sentencing to one year in prison.
(http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,5374138,00.html)
Iranian media are speaking of “hidden hands” behind Marashi’s release (http://www.khabaronline.ir/news-50341.aspx)
Deutsche Welle argues that this is bad news for the President, given the pressure of the Expediency Council (headed by Rafsanjani) to change electoral laws. Rafsanjani has also apparently managed to gain the support of the Combatant Clergy Assocation, headed by key conservative Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani. Another sign of Rafsanjani’s growing influence is the lifting of the ban on Shargh newspaper, which is meant to restart publication in two weeks.
So was Marashi’s arrest due to Ahmadinejad supporters trying to clip the challenge of Rafsanjani? And have they only succeeded in making that challenge stronger?
For me, Barbara Slavin’s article in The Washington Note confirms my view of the uranium enrichment negotiations since June between Tehran, Washington, and other countries: 1) they were genuine, motivated by Iran’s crisis of a shortage of 20-percent enriched uranium for its medical research reactor; 2) the primary obstacle to a deal was internal divisions in Washington Tehran.
But now the questions for March 2010: 1) Is there still a crisis in Tehran over uranium stock? (Yes) 2) Does this mean the regime wants to re-open discussions for a deal? (Probably, but there are still internal manoeuvres to be made) 3) Will the US still be receptive? (Likely) 4) Does this mean “engagement” is back on? (Unknown):
A senior U.S. official Wednesday confirmed that the United States offered the first civilian nuclear cooperation with Iran in three decades under the terms of a deal that Iran walked away from last fall.
On Wednesday Russia, fulfilling an agreement in principle reached four weeks ago, announced that it plans to buy four Mistral-class warships from France.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy said that, with the first deal between a NATO member and a former Soviet state, he wanted to turn the page on the Cold War; Russia must be a partner, not a threat. Sarkozy added that the deal will build trust at a time when West is seeking Russian support on issues such as Iran’s nuclear programme:
EU on Dubia Assassination: On Monday, the European Union is expected to issue a statement which will include three key elements: the EU’s condemnation of the use of European passports by members of the assassination team, an expression of support for the UAE government and investigators in Dubai, and a commitment to investigate the passport forgeries and theft identities as quickly as possible.
Senior officials from Germany, France, Britain, Ireland, and the EU reportedly met Sunday to agree the language of the statement. Ireland is taking the hardest line among all EU members by demanding that the statement explicitly refer to Israel. However, according to a senior European diplomatic source, the statement will not directly cite Israel, nor is it expected to link Israel with the assassination or the forging of passports.
Meanwhile, a senior EU diplomat said on Sunday that Israel’s suspected role in the slaying of a Hamas militant in Dubai and the killers’ alleged use of forged EU passports will harm Israel’s relations with the European bloc.
Netanyahu announced on Sunday that the Cave of the Patriarchs in Hebron and Rachel’s Tomb in Bethlehem (all in the West Bank) would both be added to the list of national heritage sites that the government plans to promote. He said that the rightist religious party Shas persuaded him add the two sites to the list and added:
Our existence depends not only on the IDF or our economic resilience – it is anchored in…the national sentiment that we will bestow upon the coming generations and in our ability to justify our connection to the land.
Following an unproductive Russia visit, a high-ranking Israeli delegation is to leave at the end of the month for Beijing. Both officials will not only talk about the increasing financial cooperation between two countries but also the request for sanctions on Tehran. Haaretz underlines that Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman have not visited China and held no significant talks with Chinese officials on the Iranian issue but have always held meetings with the rest of the 5+1 camp (Russia, USA, Germany, UK, France).
Israel’s Official Response on Dubai: Israel’s Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon said on Saturday that there was no evidence tying Israel to the assassination of Hamas strongman Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in Dubai. He added:
I don’t forsee a crisis with European allies because there is nothing that ties Israel to the assassination.
Britain, France and Germany all share our interests in the battle against global terror, therefore there will be no crisis, instead our relations [with these countries] will continue to deepen.
Palestinian-French Relations: French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner told the French Journal du Dimanche that the assassination in Dubai underscores the need for peace in the Middle East and demonstrates the need for an immediate recognition of a Palestinian state.
Before Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas’s scheduled visit to Paris next week, Kouchner said, referring to Abbas’s reportedly acceptance of indirect talks under U.S. mediation:
France is training Palestinian police, businesses are being created in the West Bank… It follows that one can envision the proclamation soon of a Palestinian state, and its immediate recognition by the international community, even before negotiating its borders.
New EA correspondent Aysegül Er offers this report on events in Europe:
On Thursday, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, meeting in Paris, put forth a ten-year blueprint for political and economical cooperation. The blueprint complements and extends a security cooperation which has been marked for 20 years by regular meetings of the Franco-German Defense and Security Council and an economic relationship in which bilateral trade reached €137.3 billion ($187 billion) in 2008.
The new cooperation covers diplomatic policy, security, defense coordination, economic and fiscal initiatives, environment protection, and biological diversity. Technological concerns also have emerged in initiatives such as a cross-border electro-mobility program for electric cars, joint bureaus dedicated to renewable energy, and aeronautic co-operation.
Persian2English has an English-language summary of this incident which started when protesters gathered outside the house in Neuphle-le- Chateau where Ayatollah Khomeini stayed during 1978-9 and where Iranian officials were holding a banquet commemorating Khomeini’s departure from France for Iran in 1979. It ended with the Iranian Ambassador punching a policeman and only escaping handcuffing and arrest when Embassy staff interceded.
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