My initial reaction, on reading the full text of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s Saturday interview on the immediate past and immediate future of the Green Movement, was feeling let down. Mousavi had offered a lengthy dissection of the regime’s “success” on 22 Bahman (11 February), mobilising the rally in Azadi Square and blocking any mass Green display. He had stated his determination, shared by others, to “express our emotions, aspirations, and concern as a nation”.
Mousavi had declared, “The Green Movement has stood firm in its civil demands. The more people’s awareness of their rights increases, the bigger will be the force behind those demands.”
Yes, I thought, but what would those demands be beyond the general assertion of freedom, justice, and rights? What endpoint for this people’s force? In the end, was Mousavi’s “Being green is a matter of behavior and morals” an evasion rather than a confrontation of the next phase of the post-election crisis?
2125 GMT: Reports have emerged that two more journalists, Mohammad Ghaznavian and Hamid Mafi, have been detained. They join more than 60 others in Iran’s prisons.
2120 GMT: We have posted a snap analysis of what appears to be a serious challenge by Khabar Online, the website linked to Ali Larijani, to President Ahmadinejad. If we are on the mark, then in light of this week’s suppression of Ayande News, it will be intriguing to see the Government’s response to another location of “conservative” criticism.
2025 GMT: We have posted the text of Mehdi Karroubi’s first interview after 22 Bahman.
1955 GMT: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has written the academic colleagues of imprisoned Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh, “The espionage charges leveled against Dr. Tajbakhsh are groundless. The State Department is using every available diplomatic tool to achieve Dr. Tajbakhsh’s release.”
Tajbakhsh was jailed for 15 years in October on charges of espionage. Clinton said in her letter that Kian Tajbakhsh has not been allowed to meet with Swiss diplomats, who serve as the United States’ diplomatic representatives in Iran, because Iran considers Tajbakhsh an Iranian citizen.
1940 GMT: A Friday Prayer for All. Neday-e Sabz Azadi reports, via Radio Zamaneh, that the Friday Prayers leader of Zahedan, Molavi Abdolhamid, described the Islamic Republic as a system that gives equal freedom to both pro- and anti-Government groups and allows voices of opposition to be heard: “The people of Iran brought the Revolution to victory to achieve its goals and now they demand the reviewing and realization of those goals.”
Another war is looming in the Middle East, say the pundits. It is hard to ignore the whispers — now louder — when they are regularly punctuated by hostile statements from various officials in the region, leading further credence to a possible conflagration.
The likely site of the newest regional battle is the Levant. Funnily enough, nobody can pinpoint exactly where, although it is clear that Israel will be involved. Which should tell us something right there.
Since the Jewish state’s military attack on Lebanon in 2006, it has been itching for a “do-over.” Why? Because for the first time in its history, Israel did not win a war. The month-long bombardment of Lebanon resulted in a stalemate — an intolerable outcome by the standards of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).
To add to the indignity, it was a mere few thousand men — not even a national army — that took the IDF by surprise.
The cornerstone of Israel’s military strategy is deterrence — whether though brandishing a nuclear arsenal to warn off threatening nation-states, or by Gaza-style intensive attacks that send a strong message to a weaker party. This is a highly militarized state that has lived under the legacy of conflict its entire existence. Loss — or even perceived loss — is not an option.
2125 GMT: More Fun with the MKO. I guess one “Dumbest Strategy of Day” Award isn’t enough. Following Euro MP Struan Stevenson’s cheerful advocacy of an alliance with the People’s Mujahideen Organization of Iran, the political wing of the Mujahedin-e-Khaq “terrorist” group (MKO), Allan Gerson, a lawyer who has worked for the State and Justice Departments, drops by The Huffington Post to assure:
As a practical matter de-designation of the [Mujahedin-e-Khalq] as a terrorist entity will only enhance Washington’s desired outcome of a peaceful resolution to the Iranian nuclear crisis. It would strengthen America’s hand in bringing a faltering regime to the negotiating table by letting Tehran know in no uncertain terms that we have taken off the kid-gloves.
Oh, yeah, I’m sure that the Tehran regime, which has been trying to rally opinion by claiming a US-MKO plot to overthrow the Government, will be absolutely traumatised and have no close what to do if Washington follows Gerson’s recommendation.
(Oh, so sorry, I took Gerson at face value as an objective if pretty dim commentator. He is in fact co-counsel representing the MKO in the case to take it off the US Government’s terrorist list.)
2055 GMT: Former Presidents Mohammad Khatami and Hashemi Rafsanjani have written messages of condolence to the family of President Professor Ali-Mohammadi.
2030 GMT: Battling with the Clerics. A series of skirmishes between Government and clerics today. Ayatollah Sadeghi Tehrani, taking offence at remarks by Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, has declared that the retention of the former First Vice-President and current Presidential Chief of Staff in any official position is “haram” (religiously forbidden).
And Ayatollah Bayat Zanjani, a persistent post-cleric of the Government but relatively quiet in recent weeks, has re-emerged to declare that the principle of velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority) is not a principle of Islam and denying it is not a sin.
Look also for some repercussions from the Government’s arrest of Mohammad Taghi Khalaji (see 1745 GMT). He is the father of prominent Mehdi Khalaji, who is based at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Expect WINEP and their allies in the Washington network of “think tanks” to get vocal — indeed, WINEP has put out a special alert and Danielle Pletka, a Bush-era proponent of US power now at the American Enterprise Institute, has already jumped in, “Iran’s Nazi-Fascism and How You Can Help Fight It”. (John Hannah, former advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney, has now joined the chorus.) Read the rest of this entry »
The minor storm over Telegraph journalist and blogger Will Heaven’s recentposts on social media and the ongoing unrest in Iran, has brought much discussion of the pros and cons of reposting Iranian activists’ comments on Twitter and Facebook. To get to the heart of the issue, however, one needs to take a look at Heaven’s assumptions regarding Deep Packet Inspection.
It is now thought that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is using Deep Packet Inspection to check Facebook messages and tweets for “anti-regime” keywords. Once this is done, they are able to pinpont the location of online protesters using their IP addresses. Then it’s just a knock on the door and a confiscated laptop for evidence.
But is the use of DPI to punish dissent really this simple?
2205 GMT: The Iranian regime, as it blames foreign media for fomenting unrest, continues the attempt to block the services. Voice of America and BBC Persian report sustained jamming efforts.
2055 GMT: The Hidden Story? An Iranian activist makes the interesting and important claim that the rumours around Mousavi and Karroubi have obscured a major story tonight — “500 thugs attacked students with knives and machetes” at Mashhad University. We’ve got footage of the clash in our video section.
2050 GMT: Nothing has happened to change our opinion of 1915 GMT. We are treating Iranian state media’s story of “two opposition figures” fleeing to northern Iran as rumour or disinformation.
Hossein Karoubi, the son of moderate defeated presidential candidate Mehdi Karoubi, said his father and opposition leader Mirhossein Mousavi were still in Tehran.
“My father and Mr. Mousavi are in Tehran and IRNA’s report is baseless. They are still pursuing the people’s demands,” Hossein Karoubi told moderate Parlemannews.
2005 GMT: Andrew Sullivan has gotten wind of what appears to be a five minute video of a group of security forces disarming after being surrounded by a crowd of demonstrators. We’ve added it to today’s video page.
1915 GMT: Rumours. We’re off on a 90-minute break. At this point, we consider the Islamic Republic News Agency story of the Karroubi/Mousavi flight to northern Iran “unconfirmed”, with the possibility that it is either a rumour being elevated to “news” or a regime disinformation campaign.
Both the Karroubi and Mousavi camps have denied the story. It should also be noted that the rumour was being spread earlier today that Mousavi’s wife Zahra Rahnavard had been detained, and no confirmation has followed.
BBC Persian is interviewing one of Karroubi’s sons about 1930 GMT.
1905 GMT: The Regime Rally (cont.). Peyke Iran, which has published photos indicating a smaller rally than the “hundreds of thousands” cited by other outlets (see 1853 GMT), is now off-line. (1926 GMT: Website is back up.)
1853 GMT: The Regime Rally. CNN’s Shirzad Bozorgmehr claims “hundreds of thousands” at today’s gathering. He said that at Vali-e Asr Square, he could not get further because of the dense crowd. From a bridge, he watched an area from Imam Hossein Square to Enghelab Square, a distance of about 18 kilometres (11 miles).
Sharmine Narwani, writing in The Huffington Post, takes apart Thomas Friedman’s lecture to Arab peoples, “America vs. The Narrative”:
Hard as I try, my mouth is fixed in an unattractive gape — unable, it seems, to correct itself. New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, in his usual clumsy attempts to suggest liberal sympathy while in fact propagating many, many Mideast myths, has caused this unfortunate disfigurement.
In his most recent column on Saturday, Friedman decided to help us understand a phenomenon sweeping the Arab and Muslim worlds, and was generous enough to coin an actual phrase to simplify this concept for the benefit of all Western civilization — he calls it “The Narrative.”
According to the New York Times columnist, “The Narrative is the cocktail of half-truths, propaganda and outright lies about America that have taken hold in the Arab-Muslim world since 9/11.” Yes, he capitalizes it. Like “The Donald.” Or “The Treaty of Versailles.”
Kind of him to generalize this way. It would have been far more difficult for me if I actually had to think about the Arab-Muslim world as a diverse grouping representing real-life individuals from varying cultures, histories, religions, political persuasions and stages of social, political and economic development.
1915 GMT: Quiet Engagement. News is just emerging of five British nationals who have been held by Iran since their yacht Sail Bahrain strayed into Iranian waters on Wednesday.
The significance behind the headline is that the story was kept quiet for five days. That indicates that Britain does not want the matter to escalate into confrontation and that Iran, for now, does not want to use the detention for political advantage.
We could not find any logical reason for the Board of Governors’ decision. We cannot accept discrimination in international relations. Either there are rights or such rights do not exist. The age of discriminatory policies is over. This is the law of the jungle.
My initial reaction, on reading the full text of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s Saturday interview on the immediate past and immediate future of the Green Movement, was feeling let down. Mousavi had offered a lengthy dissection of the regime’s “success” on 22 Bahman (11 February), mobilising the rally in Azadi Square and blocking any mass Green display. He had stated his determination, shared by others, to “express our emotions, aspirations, and concern as a nation”.
2205 GMT: The Iranian regime, as it blames foreign media for fomenting unrest, continues the attempt to block the services. Voice of America and BBC Persian 
Sharmine Narwani, 
1915 GMT: Quiet Engagement. News is just emerging of five British nationals who
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