Later Updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (17 January)
Latest post: Israeli Newspaper Details Israel’s Use of Illegal Weapons in Gaza
Latest post: Gaza — It’s Not Necessarily All About Tehran

Late evening update (2 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): Relatively quiet on all fronts the last few hours. A hectic diplomatic day but a comparatively quiet military day, as Israeli troops battled with “at least 20 armed gunmen” Friday and five civilians were wounded when 15 rockets were fired into southern Israel.

Everyone is drawing breath, but it will pick up in several hours. Saturday is the day that Israel makes its move and puts all other actors on the spot, as the Cabinet declares a unilateral ceasefire. It is a giant snub to “world opinion”, saying that Tel Aviv doesn’t need an international agreement to get its political and military objectives. Gaza will still be blockaded, Israel will remain freedom of action to send military forces in whenever it wants, and Hamas will go unrecognised.

The responses of other countries and groups to this move will be critical. Is Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak really prepared to be tied at the hip to Israel, in pursuit of the overthrow of Hamas, even though it may damage Cairo’s position in the Arab world and even threaten internal instability? Will Saudi Arabia continue to stall on meaningful cease-fire efforts or, in light of growing internal concern with the Government position, will it shift towards other Gulf States who are demanding support of Hamas and unequivocal condemnation of Israel? Can Syria and Iran press their diplomatic initiative in forging a new bloc, and can Khaled Meshaall benefit?

And what in the world is Barack Obama doing? Did his people know of the Israeli plans, given Tzipi Livni’s presence in Washington today, and tacitly approve them? Or have they sat so far back that they are trailing behind these developments?

No answers, just a lot of questions. But my speculation is that tomorrow will send a re-alignment of loyalties and objectives that ensures the political battle over Gaza enters a new phase.

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Tags: Al Jazeera, Alive in Gaza, Amira Haas, Ayman Moyheldin, Ban Ki-Moon, Bashir al-Assad, Condoleezza Rice, Ehud Olmert, Fatah, Gaza, Gulf Cooperation Council, Ha'aretz, Hamas, Hosni Mubarak, illegal weapons, Islamic Jihad, Israel, John Ging, Joshua Landis, Khaled Mashaal, Mahmoud Abbas, Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, Mahmud az-Zahar, Mouin Rabbani, Palestine, Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, Qatar, Rafah Kid, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Reuters, Saed Siam, Sameh Habeeb, Saudi Arabia, Sergei Lavrov, Syria, Tzipi Livni, United Nations, white phosphorous

Latest Updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (16 January)

Update: Make of this what you will — Rafah Kid has posted on Twitter, “Seriously they always use banned stuff…the dum dum bullets are back too…small entry and MASSIVE exit hole..noone cares”

In today’s Ha’aretz, Amira Haas not only dares to ask, “Is Israel using illegal weapons in Gaza?”, but uses reports and the expertise of military analyst Mark Garlasco to give a definitive and detailed Yes.

Garlasco confirms the use of white phosphorous and suggests it arises from “conclusions drawn from the Second Lebanon War, in which the IDF [Israeli Defense Forces] lost many tanks”. He also notes the first use in warfare of the GPS-guided mortar, with an unexpected range of error that led to the bombing of the Jabaliya school/shelter, and he confirms the use of the US-supplied “bunker-busting bomb” GBU-39.

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Tags: Amira Haas, Bunker-Buster, DIME weapons, Gaza, GBU-39, illegal weapons, Israel, Israeli Defense Forces, Mark Garlasco, Rafah Kid, Spike missile, Twitter, white phosphorous