URGENT UPDATE 1240 GMT: The Next Move in the Plot? Abdolhossein Ruholamini has given another interview about the crimes in Kahrizak Prison, including the abuse and death of his son Mohsen.
Ruholamini repeated the information, mentioned in our main article about his speech to a student organisation, that he has more than 3500 pages of evidence against the people in charge of Kahrizak. And he reiterated that there is independent evidence of the attempted murder of Kahrizak doctor Ramin Pourandarjan, who died last autumn. Ruholamini again singled out Ahmadinejad aide Saeed Mortazavi as the main suspect, saying the former Tehran prosecutor should accept the charges and resign instead of issuing political statements.
Ruholamini added the new claim that forces “behind the scenes” have been trying to get the families of victims to agree to silence, but he declared that he and some other families would “stand till the end”.
These claims, however, are only the set-up for Ruholamini’s political hammer blow: in a meeting with the Supreme Leader, “Ayatollah Khamenei supported my cause”.
And guess where the interview has been reprinted? Well, it is in two publications linked to the central plotters against President Ahmadinejad: Tabnak, linked to Mohsen Rezaei, and in Farda, which supports Mohammad Baqer-Qalibaf. Read the rest of this entry »
2200 GMT: Your Late-Night Cyber-Treat. On Google, type “Ahmadinejad President of Iran”. Hit “I’m Feeling Lucky”.
2140 GMT: We started this morning (see 0715 GMT) by noting the possible significance of the “reformist” criticisms of Dr Javad Etaat making their way onto Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting. We end today by posting the video of the first part of the interview and an English translation.
2030 GMT: Cyber-Warfare Strike. Hacking the website of Iran’s Hezbollah (Party of God) is one thing. Doing it with the slogan “The End is F***ing Near” is another. And accomplishing it with a diversion to the domain http://www.getasexpartner.com/hiz-bol.htm, well… Let’s just say that Iran’s police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam (see 1220 GMT) may want to get a bigger Internet manual if he is serious about taking on the opposition in a Web slugfest.
1935 GMT: Quality Analysis of Day. Well done, Asadollah Badamchian, member of Parliament: “The assassination [of Professor Ali-Mohammadi] and terrorist operation was a previously planned step in the Green Velvet Revolution.” The movement, Badamchian said, consists of five sub-groups, “each of which are gradually eroding”. Read the rest of this entry »
2225 GMT: More on Khamenei Speech (see 1445 and 1850 GMT). An EA reader who watched the Supreme Leader’s address today sends an interesting e-mail, “His speech did not sound aggressive. It sounded more as a request for calm and acting with wisdom after the fallouts of Ashura. It appeared that he was lacking in confidence. Same for the crowd.”
2220 GMT: Halting the Mothers of Martyrs. An Iranian activist reports that, during their weekly march in Laleh Park, about 30 of Mothers of Martyrs in the post-election crisis and their supporters were arrested and taken to Vozara detention centre.
2200 GMT: Mortazavi — Scapegoat or Valued Official? Iran-watchers may want to set aside a few moments for former Tehran prosecutor Saeed Mortazavi, whose future may turn upon the developments in the internal contest amidst conservatives and principlists.
Days after Mortazavi was reportedly named as prime “suspect” in the Parliamentary investigation of the deaths of Kahrizak detainees, he was formally named as President Ahmadinejad’s advisor to combating smuggling of drugs and currency.
Interpretation? Mortazavi is now the proxy in the battle between key conservatives/principlists and Ahmadinejad. The President wants him as a sign of Ahmadinejad’s authority and as a firewall to any move by Parliamentary challenges; Ahmadinejad’s critics see Mortazavi’s downfall as a necessary victory in their battle.
Another marker in the dispute is a statement by a “pro-Government” student organisation criticising Ahmadinejad for the appointments of Mortazavi and for Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, the former First Vice-President — a few days after his appointment, he was removed from office amidst vehement criticism from the conservatives/principlists who may be aiming at Mortazavi — who is now Ahmadinejad’s chief of staff. Read the rest of this entry »
Gary Sick has offered the following reading of latest US policy, with private manoeuvres and public “spin”, on Iran’s nuclear programme and sanctions.
My own reaction is that this is “too clever by half”, not on the part of the author but as attributed to Washington. As I wrote Sick, “Could it be that there there are two factions still battling within the Administraton? One faction, probably coming out of the State Department, is not as keen on aggressive sanctions. Linked to this is a wish to move the debate to the human rights rather than nuclear focus. The other faction, probably in the National Security Council and Department of Defense, is keener on a sanctions-first, nuclear-first focus. So they use New York Times as the ventriloquist’s dummy for their line. I’m not sure Obama is a central player in this battle.”
Sick’s concise response: “One of the great benefits of strategic leaking is that it conceals the real intentions of the leakers, thereby leaving interpretation up to the observer.”
Pretend for a moment that you are the president of the United States and you have gotten yourself into a bit of a hole with your Iran policy.
First you offered to negotiate with Iran over nuclear (and potentially other) issues without the Bush preconditions. But there were powerful political forces that felt this was an example of your inexperience and even appeasement tendencies. So you unwisely accepted a six month deadline for the negotiations to show that you meant business. You tried to soften that by saying you would take another look at the issue at the end of the year, but everyone ignored that and let you know that January 1 was the drop-dead date to solve all the negotiating problems with Iran. Read the rest of this entry »
EA’s Josh Shahryar offers his views, complementing but also differing from those of EA’s Scott Lucas, on the post-Ashura declaration of Mir Hossein Mousavi:
Mir Hossein Mousavi today released a new statement denouncing the regime’s brutal tactics against the Green Movement and outlined peaceful measures the government can take to calm the situation. While the statement is quite similar to other statements he has released in the past, several points on closer inspection stand out. The statement also shows Mousavi’s resolve and his continued willingness to finding a peaceful resolution to the current crisis.
One of the most striking features of the speech is Mousavi omitting any mention of the killing of his nephew Sayyed Ali Mousavi in Tehran on Ashura (27 December). It echoes his response and that of his wife, Zahra Rahnavard, response to the imprisonment of her brother, Shahpour Kazemi, which they kept private or months because they did not want to let personal statements speak for the entire Green Movement.
What is more important, however, is that Mousavi for the first time discounts his own influence and that of Mehdi Karroubi. He admits that even though people asked him to call for protests or at least lend his support, he did not do so in the case of Ashura. He also acknowledges the fact that people came out without his call. Read the rest of this entry »
1930 GMT: Kill Them. Abbas Vaez-Tabasi, a member of the Expediency Council and the Assembly of Experts has declared on state television, “Those who are behind the current sedition in the country … are mohareb (enemies of God) and the law is very clear about punishment of a mohareb [execution].”
Today’s Show of Support for the Regime? If you believe Peyke Iran, it wasn’t much. The website reports that residents in Rasht ridiculed a demonstration of 300 plainclothes Basijis chanting slogans for the execution of reformists like Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, and Mehdi Karroubi.
1845 GMT: The Arrests Move Higher. Government forces have arrested Mir Hossein Mousavi’s chief aide Alireza Beheshti. Beheshti, the son of one of Iran’s most commemorated martyrs, Ayatollah Mohammad Beheshti, was also detained briefly in September when the regime tried to disrupt preparations for Qods Day demonstrations.
1830 GMT: The Karroubi Family Speaks Out (Cont.): Mehdi Karroubi’s son Taghi has added to the criticisms by Karroubi’s wife and son Hossein of regime restrictions on his father. He said that Government-provided security has stopped protecting Karroubi when he leaves the house. This is effectively a ”quasi-house arrest’.’
Less than 24 hours after we posted our analysis of the politics surrounding and beyond Grand Ayatollah Montazeri’s funeral, I think most of the arguments hold up.
The momentum of challenge to the regime has not ebbed. The Western media has turned from bored/gloomy/hostile sceptic into unreserved cheerleader, as in this editorial from The Washington Post, which echoes some of our analysis but with a much louder, dramatic shout:
We would not underestimate the fact that a figure such as this can bring forth multitudes — even in death — while Mr. Ahmadinejad is reduced to unleashing his militia and shrieking at the West. The most momentous international event of 2009 was the uprising in Iran, and though the regime’s collapse is not imminent, it is hardly unthinkable.
More substantially, Faraj Sorkouhi argues that the Supreme Leader’s latest public move, the message to those marking Montazeri’s death, may further expose a self-glorification being pursued not as an outcome of support for Ayatollah Khameini, but as a reaction to the lack of it. In condemning Montazeri under the cover of offering condolences — pointing to his “sins”, asking God to forgive him, and thus declaring Montazeri’s 20 years of isolation and punishment were of a divine nature — Khamenei may have stepped too far in trying to adpoe his own God-like image. Read the rest of this entry »
2310 GMT: A Sad End, Another Day. We took the night off to catch our breath (and catch up with some friends), as Iran winds down after an anti-climactic and possibly damaging day for the regime.
On a day that started with the cyber-drama of the attack on Twitter, probably by a group supporting the Iranian Government, the evening ends with the sad news that the domain of Mowj-e-Sabz, one of the key locations for information in this crisis, has been released for purchase. The activists of the website announced yesterday that they are taking a well-earned break.
But we’ll back in a few hours to see what Saturday brings.
1810 GMT: Stratospheric Media Speculation of Day. The cyber-attack on Twitter this morning (see separate analysis)? It’s all down to the Iranian Government’s new strategy in the nuclear negotiations. Read the rest of this entry »
URGENT UPDATE 1240 GMT: The Next Move in the Plot? Abdolhossein Ruholamini has given another interview about the crimes in Kahrizak Prison, including the abuse and death of his son Mohsen. 
Gary Sick has offered 
EA’s Josh Shahryar offers his views, complementing but also differing 
1930 GMT: Kill Them. Abbas Vaez-Tabasi, a member of the Expediency Council and the Assembly of Experts 
Less than 24 hours after we posted our analysis of the politics surrounding and beyond Grand Ayatollah Montazeri’s funeral, I think most of the arguments hold up.
2310 GMT: A Sad End, Another Day. We took the night off to catch our breath (and catch up with some friends), as Iran winds down after an anti-climactic and possibly damaging day for the regime.
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