2100 GMT: Chahrshanbeh Suri. An activist reports a conversation with a relative in Gisha in Tehranm, who said basiji were roaming the streets on their bikes and tried to stop people celebrating. Told of a report that said nothing political had happened tonight, the relative answered, “In Iran everything is political.”
2010 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. More temporary releases — Behzad Nabavi, a leader of the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution Party serving a five-year term for “crimes against national security”, and journalist and economist Saeed Laylaz have been freed until 4 April. Laylaz posted $500,000 bail.
2000 GMT: Chahrshanbeh Suri Reza Sayah of CNN reports, via a Tehran witness, that police are spray painting passing cars that toss firecrackers out of windows. Basiji used tasers and batons to chase away 300 partiers near Mehr Park in Farmanieh.
2133 GMT: More Death Penalties or Old News? There’s chatter tonight about a supposed announcement of “six death sentences” for protesters on Ashura (27 December), featured on The New York Times website.
We’re being careful about this. Our perception is that the announcement is merely the restatement of death sentences which have already been announced by the Tehran Prosecutor General’s office, rather than — as the NYT piece indicates — a new set of capital punishments.
2130 GMT: We’ve posted a separate entry on the developing story of the ban on the Islamic Iran Participation Front.
1945 GMT: Resisting the Empire of Lies. Responding to the Government’s assertion that it has been banned (see 1650 GMT), the reformist party Islamic Iran Participation Front calls on all political and social activists to continue their social struggles and not to “give in to the empire of lies”. The IIPF claimed that the attempted ban reveals the “weakness of the government” and that civil institutions and activists will “grow and expand” their activities.
1940 GMT: Power, Money, and Oil. The engineering firm owned by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps has been awarded an $850 million oil pipeline contract.
UPDATE 2255 GMT: A journalist at the press conference writes to assure us that the “former Karroubi aide” was NOT Ataollah Mohajerani. The journalist also says that the theme of the Khamenei-Ahmadinejad rift, which was the Tehran Bureau headline (but which we think is tangential in the political situation) was the big pitch of the aide both during the formal conference and afterwards in conversations.
All of this indicates that the attempted PR effort of the opposition has been rather botched, with almost no coverage and a failure to bring out the points that would resonate in the US such as the position on sanctions and the declared aims of the Green Movement.
UPDATE 0915 GMT: Barbara Slavin, one of Washington’s top journalists, adds, “A top aide to Mehdi Karroubi…said [President] Obama should send Nowruz [Iranian New Year] greetings this year. However, he argued that the message should focus on human rights and commemorate the scores of Iranians — such as Neda Agha Soltan — who have been killed since June by plainclothes thugs, prison torturers, and government executioners.”
More than four months after their last public-relations effort in the US, Iranian opposition leaders have made another move to influence American political circles. “A senior aide to opposition cleric Mehdi Karroubi” met journalists at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on Friday. The senior aide “worked with [Karroubi] for more than 25 years” but is now based outside Iran (while he is anonymous in the TB story, skilled Iran-watchers will identify him easily).
The headline claim in Tehran Bureau is that the aide revealed that “Iran’s supreme leader has cooled his support for president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad”. That, in fact, is not much of a story. The claim — at least as reported in the article — has no specific evidence but echoes a number of points (such as the incident over Ahmadinejad’s close ally Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai) that we have noted since last summer.
Pedestrian posts the thoughts of Emad Bahavar, a political activist in the Freedom Movement of Iran, writer, and the head of “Supporters of Khatami and Mousavi” in the 2009 Presidential campaign. He was arrested shortly after the election, and released after two months. He was detained last week but released on Tuesday.
Bahavar’s recent article in Rooz Online, “The destination was to begin the journey”, was the reason for his latest arrest. This is Part 1 of 3, with the following parts coming out in the next few days:
The destination was to begin the journey Rooz Online, 6 March 2010
It is now quite obvious that what happened before and after the presidential election was a result of a very clumsy solution devised by security and military forces, to solve the “crisis of leadership” in the future system of the Islamic Republic. A solution that did not solve the crisis, and in fact, inflicted irreversible injury and damage to the very structure and legitimacy of the political system.
2225 GMT: Petraeus Pronounces. On a slowish political evening, General David Petraeus dishes out some rhetoric on Iran’s “thugocracy”. We’ll have an analysis tomorrow (hint: it’s actually a signal that US is backing off any immediate military pressure), but for now, we’ve posted the video.
1945 GMT: Larijani Watch. Nice move by the head of Iran’s judiciary, Mohammad Sadegh Larijani. He has announced the discovery of a large group inside the Government carrying out fraud and economic corruption: one case alone was embezzlement of 6 bilionl Toman more than $6 million).
GALLO: Is Iran really trying to build a nuclear weapon?
CIRINCIONE: There is no doubt that the Iranian regime is moving to acquire the technologies that would allow it to build a nuclear weapon. We do not know if the regime has reached a decision to actually build a weapon, however.
Three weeks has passed since the 22nd of Bahman rally and there have been lots of discussions and comments regarding this rally, what is opinion your about this event?
It is not the first time that the ceremonies of 22nd of Bahman have been held in our country. These ceremonies are in remembrance of rallies in 1979 [and have taken place] in different occasions with more than a million people. Every year people who admire this revolution participate in these ceremonies where traditional institutions such as Mosques or religious assemblies play an important role in organizing the rally. Usually the ceremonies in each year are influenced by important events of the year and the political atmosphere [in the country]. The 10th presidential election and the events that followed it influenced this year’s rally. The government mobilized [large number of people] public employees, using trains and buses from all across the country by spending large sums of money. This was all to neutralize the impact of presence of green movement.
0830 GMT: The Mousavi interview on Kalemeh has just come out. The takeaway line is “Spreading Awareness is the Goal of the Green Movement”, but there is far more here to be read and analysed.
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Whisper it softly, because the “Western” media are still sleeping, but politics is on the move again in Iran.
Kalemeh, the website of Mir Hossein Mousavi, has put out advance notice this morning that an interview with Mousavi will be coming out later today. No word on content, but this follows last weekend’s assurance from a Mousavi-Mehdi Karroubi meeting that they would soon be letting the Iranian people know of their plans and Karroubi’s mid-week interviews with his website and with an Italian newspaper.
Meanwhile, in Japan, Ali Larijani is making a big push from within the establishment. The signal of a deal for Japan to carry out “3rd party enrichment” on Iran’s uranium is a major international development, but its internal implications are just as significant. If Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has been in Syria, is on-board with the Larijani (and probably Larijani-Khamenei) manoeuvre, that points to a coordinated push to move n the nuclear issue and Iran’s regional position. However, if the President is out of the loop on the initiative, then Larijani is establishing his credential as the major “secular” player in Iranian politics.
2100 GMT: Chahrshanbeh Suri. An activist reports a conversation with a relative in Gisha in Tehranm, who said basiji were roaming the streets on their bikes and tried to stop people celebrating. Told of a report that said nothing political had happened tonight, the relative answered, “In Iran everything is political.”
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