On Monday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton talked to Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim Bin Jabr Al-Thani. At the press briefing, Clinton answered a question regarding Iran. She underlined the “so-far-unsuccessful yet continuing dual-track approach” – engagement and pressure – and emphasized the difference between the “must-do’s” against the Iranian government in the absence of any “amelioration” in the government’s response and the “needs & concerns” to be taken care of when it comes to Iranian people who are facing “ruthless repression”:
QUESTION: Secretary Clinton, on Iran, President Obama said last year that you’d have a pretty good sense by the end of year whether Iran was seriously interested in pursuing dialogue about its nuclear program. There aren’t a lot of signs that they are, and there are no signs that I’m aware of that they’re interested in carrying out the agreement on low-enriched uranium that was reached in Geneva. Read the rest of this entry »
2140 GMT: A Special Note for Closing (and for Opening Tomorrow). In another portion of his press confernce, Iran Prosecutor General Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Ejei took aim at the son of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani: “If there are any charges against Mehdi Hashemi, he should be summoned and his case investigated. If he is found guilty, he should be punished without any mercy.”
Subtext? The Government is pulling out the threats because it is worried that Rafsanjani is up to something big.
And guess what? He is. Tune in first thing tomorrow morning.
2100 GMT: Cyber-Protest. The Green Movement has hacked the website of Gilan University. The homepage still features a protest poster and the slogan, “Green Movement is Alive”.
EA’s newest correspondent, Mohammad Khiabani, introduces us to the economics preceding and accompanying the post-election situation:
The subsidy system that exists in Iran — one that benefits both individuals and industry by lowering costs of basic daily goods but is highly inefficient and unfair in the distribution of those benefits —- was never meant to be permanent. It was an expansion of a earlier set of food and energy subsidies that began under the Pahlavi dynasty, as part of the old regime’s economic and social policy.
During the 1980s war with Iraq and the US embargo, when Mir Housain Mousavi was Prime Minister of the Islamic Republic (and not too ideologically different from the Revolutionary Guard in his political positions), the subsidy system expanded into a general distribution network that kept consumption in Iran at decent levels. This involved government-run food centers throughout the country, price controls, nationalization of foreign trade, multiple currency exchange rates, and a rationed goods program. Just as in the Battle of London during WWII, when the average Londoner’s nutrition levels went up even while the city was being bombed by the Luftwaffe, the effect of this network in Iran was to equalize the consumption of goods. This helped raise the lower classes’ living standards even while Iran’s wealth declined from the Pahlavi days of its oil-fueled economic “miracle”. Read the rest of this entry »
UPDATED 31 August, 0725 GMT: Enduring America’s Chris Emery, formerly known as “Mr Jones”, has now made his contribution to what is becoming, I think, one of the most important discussions in the post-election crisis — see below. Mr Smith has offered a reply.
UPDATED 1145 GMT: Mr Smith has made another intervention in the debate.
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Over the weekend, after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s tough talking at Friday prayers in Tehran and as he was submitting his Cabinet choices to Parliament, we have been debating the President’s position and future prospects. EA’s Mr Smith and Mr Johnson are joined by Muhammad Sahimi of Tehran Bureau, whose column sparked the discussion, and Fintan Dunne.
SAHIMI: ….Such fabrications [like those in his Friday speech] are of course meant to present Ahmadinejad as a confident leader. But, in reality, he is weaker and more isolated than ever. True, the right wing is in control, but that control has been achieved first and foremost by the support of the high command of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). Otherwise, the base of support for Ahmadinejad among the population is extremely narrow, limited to at most 15% of the population. Read the rest of this entry »
There has been a lot of Internet chatter, now out in the mainstream media such as The New York TimesCNN, about President Ahmadinejad’s nomination of Ahmad Vahidi as Minister of Defense. The discussion is not as much about Vahidi’s command of the Qods Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a background we think is of significance in the evolving battle within Iran’s establishment (see Thursday’s updates), but about specific allegations of his involvement in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish centre in Argentina.
A lot of the chatter has been unsupported, so an EA correspondent offers the visual proof that the proposed Defense Minister is indeed the suspect sought by Interpol. In the group photo of the proposed Iran Cabinet, Vahidi is in the second row, fourth from right:
And here’s the photo accompanying the Interpol warrant for “Ahmad Vahidi” for “CRIMES AGAINST LIFE AND HEALTH, HOOLIGANISM/VANDALISM/DAMAGE”:
The announcement on Facebook, which came just after 1000 GMT yesterday, was short but to the point: “Ayatollah Sadeg Amoli Larijani has been nominated [by] Iran revolution supreme leader to post of administration in department of justice”. A few minutes later, a photo of the Supreme Leader and the new head of Iran’s judiciary, Mohammad Sadegh Larijani, was posted.
In the midst of the ongoing uncertainty over the appointment of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani as head of Iran’s judiciary Enduring America correspondents have been paying close attention to this extended analysis by Mehdi Khalaji, of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Khalaji offers both background and critique of Larijani within the context of what he calls the “militarization” of Iran’s legal and judicial bodies.
We have read this in the light both of WINEP’s political position of long-time hostility to the Iranian regime and of Khalaji’s own history as a former cleric. An EA correspondent writes, “Khalaji usually goes down very strong on his former Qom classmates usually. His analysis may turn out to be true, but Sadegh is actually more scholarly than what Khalaji makes him out to be. For example, I have a very erudite rebuttal of Mohammad Khatami’s civil society that was written by him 11 years ago in a right-wing weekly called Sobh. However, what Khalaji says about Khamenei’s progressive replacement of the elite with a younger generation of his own liking is very similar to other analyses, including those from “reformists”. Interesting to see how opinions are converging on this front.”
Militarization of the Iranian Judiciary
Widespread reports suggest that Sadeq Larijani, a young and inexperienced cleric with close ties to Iran’s military and intelligence agencies, will officially replace Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi as head of the Iranian
judiciary on August 16. [Editor's Note: The installation was originally scheduled for 15 August but has been delayed, reported to the 17th.] This appointment is particularly significant, since the judiciary in Iran wields considerable power — albeit through the approval of Iran’s top leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — and has a great deal of latitude to make decisions without reference to law or Islamic concepts, especially when “safeguarding the interests of the regime” is deemed necessary. Read the rest of this entry »
We began this morning with an analysis of the relationship between the Supreme Leader and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, asking if Ayatollah Khamenei would stand by or jettison his President. Muhammad Sahimi of Tehran Bureau, drawing from a source, sees another, possibly bigger battle: the Supreme Leader v. the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Showdown between Khamenei and IRGC?
Two important developments over the past few days suggest a possible confrontation in the near future between Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Khamenei, and the high command of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). Read the rest of this entry »
On Monday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton talked to Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim Bin Jabr Al-Thani. At the press briefing, Clinton answered a question regarding Iran. She underlined the “so-far-unsuccessful yet continuing dual-track approach” – engagement and pressure – and emphasized the difference between the “must-do’s” against the Iranian government in the absence of any “amelioration” in the government’s response and the “needs & concerns” to be taken care of when it comes to Iranian people who are facing “ruthless repression”:
2140 GMT: A Special Note for Closing (and for Opening Tomorrow). In another portion of his press confernce, Iran Prosecutor General Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Ejei 
EA’s newest correspondent, Mohammad Khiabani, introduces us to the economics preceding and accompanying the post-election situation: 
UPDATED 31 August, 0725 GMT: Enduring America’s Chris Emery, formerly known as “Mr Jones”, has now made his contribution to what is becoming, I think, one of the most important discussions in the post-election crisis — see below. Mr Smith has offered a reply.
In the midst of the ongoing uncertainty over the appointment of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani as head of Iran’s judiciary Enduring America correspondents have been paying close attention to 
We began this morning with an analysis of the relationship between the Supreme Leader and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, asking if Ayatollah Khamenei would stand by or jettison his President. Muhammad Sahimi of Tehran Bureau, drawing from a source, 
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