2115 GMT: Persian2English, from Ali Tavakoli, reports that the Revolutionary Court has handed down an 8 1/2-year prison sentence to student leader Majid Tavakoli, arrested on 16 Azar (7 December), for participation in an illegal gathering (5 years), propaganda against the regime (1 year), insult of the Supreme Leader (2 years), and insult of the President (6 months). In addition, Tavakoli is banned from any involvement in political activities and forbidden to leave the country for five years.
1940 GMT: Nuclear Deadlock. The Associated Press reports, from diplomatic sources, that Tehran has formally responded to the “third-party enrichment” proposal by insisting that a swap of uranium stock has to take place inside Iran.
1935 GMT: The Khatami Criticism. The website sympathetic to Mir Hossein Mousavi has posted a full summary of Mohammad Khatami’s scatching critique of the Ahmadinejad Government (1545 GMT and 1749 GMT). Another notable extract is Khatami’s assessment of the Parliamentary investigation on the detainee abuses at Kahrizak Prison: “This report is a sad evidence of a disaster in the Islamic Republic….Much of the truth has not been told but even this little is enough to shaken the back bone of those devoted to the establishment, Islam and Iran.”
1920 GMT: Rah-e Sabz is now saying that the reported closure of the Hosseinieh at Jamaran (see 1800 GMT) by Seyed Hassan Khomeini was a lie of the “conservative” press and the house of worship is now open for “people’s pilgrimage”. Read the rest of this entry »
2100 GMT: The Assault on Zahra Rahnavard. More on the alleged attack on Mir Hossein Mousavi’s wife this afternoon at Tehran University: Persian2English has an English summary.
2055 GMT: Britain Leads, Will US Follow? British Foreign Minister David Miliband has taken notice of today’s events in a statement:
I share the concern of many people about the use of force to stifle demonstrations on Students’ Day. This follows the large scale abuses of human rights that have taken place since the presidential elections on 12 June.
Freedom of speech and freedom of political expression are fundamental values which all governments should respect. We look to the Iranian authorities to up-hold the freedoms of their own citizens, not stifle them.
Will Britain’s allies in Washington also issue a declaration of concern over “human rights”? Read the rest of this entry »
2030 GMT: An Iranian activist is offering a running summary of the Government’s crackdown on students through arrests and detentions as well as disciplinary action by Universities.
1840 GMT: A Mousavi Trial? Mohammad Nabi Habibi, Secretary-General of the conservative Islamic Coalition Party, has demanded that Mir Hossein Mousavi be prosecuted for claiming that the Presidential election was rigged, “I believe both Mousavi and all those who propagated this big lie must face trial in a court of law.”
1600 GMT: Magically Appearing Crowd. We opened this morning (0745 GMT) with photographic confirmation of the disappointing crowd at President Ahmadinejad’s Thursday speech in Tabriz. Kayhan, the firmly pro-Government newspaper, has published pictures, but suddenly the empty bleachers are filled with people.
Mir Hossein Mousavi: A country that is governed under the name of Islam should not continue its path by terrorizing people
Invading the American embassy by Iranian students [in 1979] was a reaction to American interference into Iran affairs and its support for Shah. If it was Russia or Britain doing that, the same thing would have happened to them. Therefore our people pay attention to the fundamental roots and reasons behind 13 Aban [the demonstrations of 4 November] and against the interference of foreigners and not a specific country, and this is why on 13 Aban all people came to the streets.
This year’s November 4th, because of how people took the streets and remained on the scene, turned to a great memory for our nation….On November 4th, the regime brought an army to confront the people….[but] dividing the people and enforcing limitations created new circumstances for the Green movement. Read the rest of this entry »
2000 GMT: The official death toll from today’s bombing is now 42.
1950 GMT: Coincidence or Sabotage? A passenger train travelling from Tehran to Kerman derailed today, and a tea factory in Golestan burned to the ground.
1925 GMT: Mehr News is reporting that the explosion near the Oil Ministry in Tehran was from a faulty air tank.
1910 GMT: Switching the Foreign “Enemy” from the US to Pakistan. This morning, when the Revolutionary Guard was claiming Washington was behind the bombings, we wrote, “Watch carefully to see if the Ahmadinejad Government maintains this line, which could derail ‘engagement’.”
There’s a big clue tonight that Ahmadinejad has chosen engagement over the blame-US line. Fars News reports that the Iranian Cabinet has demanded that Pakistan bring forward those who carried out the bombings, a positioning reinforced by the summoning of the Pakistani Ambassador to the Foreign Ministry. There is no mention of the US anywhere in the Fars story.
1830 GMT: The Death Toll Rises…. The afternoon number of 31 dead from this morning’s bombing will rise, though it is uncertain how much. Fars News reports that 35 victims have already been identified.
1625 GMT: National Unity Plan. It’s alive, and it apparently has been submitted to the Supreme Leader (who is apparently also alive) for consideration. We’ve posted a separate entry on the newsflash.
On 24 June, we reported: “A curious and, if true, troubling incident. It is alleged that 70 faculty members, having met with Mir Hossein Mousavi, were later arrested.”
Almost all of the faculty, most of whom were sociologists, were released, but it was unclear why the authorities reacted so fiercely to the gathering. Now Iran Quest has gone back to the speech, printed in Mowj-e-Sabz on 5 July, and offered an English translation. (The clarifications and notes in parentheses also come from Iran Quest.) The speech stands not only as an important record of Mousavi’s thoughts in the day after the election but as a possible guide to continued protest:
We are accused that we are American and European (agents), that we are controlled by outsiders. That’s why I think it is imperative to state what (really) is the foreigners’ plan; And to take a stance against this issue. That’s why we need to talk about these issues. Even today and in the context of our current situation, if we truly do believe that one of the most significant outcomes of our revolution has been our independence, then we are obligated to indeed take a stance despite the harm that it may cause us. What I am really saying is that it is not going to harm us, but even if it did, we would still have to take a stance; it is important to work on this issue more extensively and declare a clearer position on as soon as possible. (The issue: accusations that Mousavi is an imperialist agents attempting regime change)
An apology: we reported an hour ago that Mir Hossein Mousavi has issued a short statement welcoming the protest tomorrow. Should have checked the date: the statement is for the protest of 18 June.
2010 GMT: We’ve now carefully gone through this afternoon’s important story in The Guardian to assess not only the significance of the Supreme Leader’s son, Moqtaba Khamenei, in recent events but the possibility of a “counter-coup” provoked by anger against Moqtaba’s manoeuvres. The analysis is in a separate blog.
1630 GMT: Detention Ups and Downs. Reports throughout the day that Iran’s chief prosecutor has met with Ministry of Interior officials to discuss the fate of detainees. One report says more than 500 files will be sent to the judiciary next week. Meanwhile, the head of Iran’s police says another 100 detainees will soon be released. Read the rest of this entry »
2100 GMT: The Guardian Council-Khamenei manoeuvre for a five-day extension of the recount gets a reward: Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei withdraws his complaint about electoral fraud.
1830 GMT: Crackdown, then “Breathing Space”. Iranian state media have been reporting that the Supreme Leader has granted the Guardian Council’s request for five extra days to recount the Presidential vote. This is a bit curious, to say the least, since the Council was saying only yesterday that there was no possibility of the result being overturned.
Interpretation? It appears that opposition pressure, both in private maneouvres such as the Mousavi visit to Qom (with the follow-up endorsement of the candidate by the Association of Combatant Clerics), the public plans for marches tomorrow and Thursday, and the even more public Karroubi and Khatami initiatives today have unsettled the Iranian leadership.
They haven’t broken the protest movement. And — although this may be only a pawn in the chess game — they have incurred the rhetorical wrath of the international community for the violence of recent days. Throw in the still-to-be-determined “Neda” symbolic factor, and you have a regime trying to stall developments.
Now the full White House strategy to maintain flexiblity on Iran unfolds. Obama, in a pre-planned, tips his hat to the power of the Internet and “new media” by asking Nico Pitney, who has blogging on Iran for The Huffington Post, to pass on a question from the Iranian people.
It’s a nice move which ensure Obama can pay heed to those “Iranian people” and maintain his position. The question, “Will Obama deal with Ahmadinejad?” is handled with, “The thing for the Iranian Government to consider is legitimacy in the eyes of its own people….Ultimately this is up to the Iranian people to decide who their leadership is going to be.”
The vague far-from-footnote is in Obama’s, “What we can do is to say unequivocally is there are sets of international norms and principles about violence, about dealing with peaceful dissent.”
So what does the President do if demonstrations tomorrow and/or Thursday are met with more “violence” by Iranian security forces?
1638 GMT: First question tests Obama on steps, rather than rhetoric, on Iran: Is there any “red line” that can be crossed that would suspend US engagement with Iran?
The President sidesteps the question and falls back on “rights and responsibilities” language in referring to the Iranian Government before issuing a holding comment: “We don’t know how they’re going to respond yet. That’s what we’re waiting to see.”
To the follow-up question, “Should there be any consequences?”, Obama holds his line, “The world is bearing witness” to the events in Iran.
1630 GMT: President Obama has just opened his press conference with “a few words” on Iran. The world is “outraged and appalled” at the treatment of protesters. So while the US “respects the sovereignty” of Iran, everyone must “speak out” about the violence wielded against the demonstrators. The Iranian Government “must heed the will of its own people and govern through consensus, not force.”
Nothing new here: pointed general rhetoric to express concern and even anger about the images witnessed in recent days but no specific actions or even threats to punish the Iranian Government and suspend Obama’s tentative “engagement”. The coded response to those who are pressing for US intervention? “The Iranian people can speak for themselves.”
Obama extended the statement by denouncing Iran’s use of a fictional “Western intervention” to justify its repression, and he returned to the denunciation of the Iranian Government’s abuse of rights. This is, however, a stay-the-course statement while trying to fend off domestic critics who want that “Western intervention” to become fact rather than fiction.
1510 GMT: Reports that Mir Hossein Mousavi’s Facebook page says he will attend Wednesday’s march (4 p.m. local time) to Iranian Parliament in Baharestan Square.
1505 GMT: Further on that British sideshow (1045 GMT). The tit-for-tat diplomatic “happy slapping” has begun: Iran expels two British Embassy staff so London sends two Iranian diplomats packing. Believe it or not, however, this is not as bad as it could have been: if Tehran had unilaterally pulled its Ambassador (a de facto suspension of relations), that would have been more serious than this choreographed manoeuvre.
1410 GMT: We’ve just posted urgent news on a purported “action plan” by former President Mohammad Khatami for protests.
1408 GMT: From an Iranian activist via Twitter: “We are having difficulty getting updates to u as so many of our contacts been arrested – life here is v/v/dangerous now.”
1315 GMT: More coming in on the next moves of the opposition movement. Reports that supporters of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi will assemble in front of the Iranian Parliament building tomorrow at 4 p.m. local time. Karroubi has also written an open letter to Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting: “”Is your mission the inverse representation of the beating and killing of people by plain cloths [paramilitary Basiji]?”
1300 GMT: This hour’s Press TV English coverage of Iran (see updates throughout the day)? Nothing. Not a whisper. Nothing to see here, move along.
1215 GMT: More arrests of journalists. The latest detainees are Seyed Alireza Beheshti Shirazi, editor-in-chief of the pro-Mousavi newspaper Kalameh and his son. There are also reports that a reporter for either The Washington Post or The Washington Times has been taken into custody.
1125 GMT: The Financial Times of London reports that Kargozaran, “a political party affiliated with Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani” has called upon Mir Hossein Moussavi to form a “political bloc” for a long-term campaign to undermine the “illegitimate” Government.
1109 GMT: Press TV English’s blackout continues: not a word in its current newscast on Iran. The website is more forthcoming: headlines are of the Guardian Council’s statement that “there has been no record of any major irregularity” in the Presidential vote and of President Ahmadinejad taking the oath of office between 26 July and 19 August.
1045 GMT: A Very British Sideshow: as we await further news on developments in public and behind the scenes, the diversionary story of Britain — that most sinister country, according to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khameini — continues.
Last night, the Foreign Office advised British citizens that only those with “essential” reasons should travel to Iran, and the British Embassy began advising families of staff that they might have to be removed from the country.
This morning, Iranian state media were playing up news of a forthcoming rally by students in front of the British Embassy. Later reports, however, said that the rally had been cancelled as it had been denied a permit by the Ministry of the Interior.
Meanwhile, there were reports — soon denied by the Iranian Government — that the Iranian Ambassador to the UK had been recalled.
Significance? It’s possible that the Supreme Leader, and subsequent Government showcases such as yesterday’s Foreign Ministry conference, have overplayed the “Western threat” card. It’s one thing to deploy the weapon of rhetoric, another to raise the prospect of violence against Western nationals. So the Iranian leadership, which has been careful not to attack the US Government as the primary enemy of Tehran, may be edging away from a precipice in relations.
0800 GMT: CNN’s International Desk reports, “Reports from inside Iran say the problem in organizing a strike is communicating the messsage to shops & businesses not on Web.”
0730 GMT: There’s a curious missing-of-the-point in current media coverage, which is focusing on the Guardian Council’s pre-emptive declaration that any vote recount will not change the outcome of the Presidential election. Since this move is about as unexpected as the Sun rising in the East, it might be more productive to consider how the protest movement is already looking beyond the Council to its next public and private political challenges.
0700 GMT: Press TV English’s current approach is to ignore events in Iran. They are headlining US drone strikes on Pakistan, the US military in Afghanistan, and US unemployment, but not a word on their own backyard.
0630 GMT: Lara Setrakian (see her report on Monday’s demonstrations in 0600 GMT update) also writes of protest resignations by faculy at Amir Kabir University in Tehran and Sani Sharif University. These follow the resignation of up to 120 faculty members at Tehran University and other academics across the country.
Morning Update 0600 GMT: Little change from our late night update. We’re still waiting for reports on any general strike, but political developments are pointing towards a key rally on Thursday. The support for Mousavi from the Association of Combatant Clerics, while still limited to “reformist” backing, showed that he could mobilise important groups to come out into the open, and the opposition campaign continues to evade the tough Government restrictions to get out information and organise. Yesterday, that was shown by the statement from Presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi, disseminated widely, for the Guardian Council to declare the election void.
The hard part, of course, is on the ground. The Government’s priority will be to prevent any repeat of the million-strong march of 15 June; conversely, the protest movement will look for a gathering large in both size and symbolism.
Behind the scenes, there is little sign of shifting apart from the Association’s endorsement of Mousavi after his trip to Qom. Former Presidential Rafsanjani remains very quiet. The Supreme Leader has let others take the public lead after his Friday address, and President Rafsanjani is silent (only speculation, but I think he is being kept under wraps for fear that he will further inflame opposition).
2115 GMT: Persian2English, from Ali Tavakoli, reports that the Revolutionary Court has handed down an 8 1/2-year prison sentence to student leader Majid Tavakoli, arrested on 16 Azar (7 December), for participation in an illegal gathering (5 years), propaganda against the regime (1 year), insult of the Supreme Leader (2 years), and insult of the President (6 months). In addition, Tavakoli is banned from any involvement in political activities and forbidden to leave the country for five years.
2150 GMT: To end the day, we’ve 
2000 GMT: The official death toll from today’s bombing 
On 24 June, we reported
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