1740 GMT: Checking the Scorecard on the Nuclear Talks.
What We Predicted (1145 GMT): “The foreign policy story to watch today is not in Germany, where there will be a ritual consideration of the “5+1″ powers of Iran’s reported new proposal over its nuclear programme but no substantive developments (because, if Iran has really submitted a new proposal, time will be needed to examine it).”
What Happened (The Statement): “World powers pressed Iran on Wednesday to meet them for talks on its disputed nuclear program before a United Nations General Assembly meeting later this month.
Volker Stanzel, political director in the German foreign ministry, made the comments in a statement after chairing a meeting with his counterparts from Russia, China, the United States, France and Britain to discuss Iran’s nuclear program.”
What Happened (Translation): Nothing.
EA Scorecard: Bullseye!
1545 GMT: Another Story to Watch. We saw a report earlier today but held off pending verification. The Assembly of Members of Parliament, made up of former MPs, was due to see opposition leaders including Mohammad Khatami, Mir Hossein Mousavi, and Mehdi Karoubi at its general meeting.
The gathering was cancelled, however, after pressure from authorities, including — according to one MP — threatening phone calls from security forces.
Some of you may remember that last month some former MPs issued a call, invoking the Iranian Constitution, for reconsideration of the Supreme Leader’s position.
2010 GMT: On a relatively quiet evening, the Comedy Moment of the Day comes in. The Supreme Leader’s representative to the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, Hojatoleslam Ali Saeedi, explained that the reason for the “quick confessions” of political detainees was the “humane and Islamic” behaviour of the Revolutionary Guard.
1810 GMT: Scoop of the Day. The Times of London “Terror suspect Saeed Jalili set to become Ahmadinejad’s Defence Minister“. (Saeed Jalili is the secretary of the National Security Council. The nominee for Defence Minister is Ahmad Vahidi, who is wanted by Interpol for alleged involvement in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish centre in Argentina.)
1720 GMT: During this lull before tomorrow’s votes of confidence, here’s one story, originally in Farda News, to make you go Hmmm…..
Mohsen Kouhkan, a spokesman for the Majlis governing body, said lawmakers were asked to turn down any dinner invitation other than those coming from parliament or the presidential office until after the vote-of-confidence session for the 10th cabinet has taken place.
“As minister designates and lawmakers may be invited to Iftar [breaking of the daily Ramadan fast] parties held outside Parliament, the Majlis governing body has sent a text message to all lawmakers asking them to refrain from participating in any dinner parties outside of parliament and the presidential office,” he said.
1655 GMT: One disturbing story to note. As Iranian universities prepare for the start of the academic year, Gooya reports that dozens of Tehran University students have been summoned to the Ministry of Intelligence for questioning.
1630 GMT: We’re back after an afternoon break for an EA staffer’s birthday but, to be honest, there’s very little to update on the domestic front, since the votes of confidence on Cabinet appointments will be tomorrow rather than today. Instead, the two stories causing chatter amongst “mainstream” media are on the international front: the Iran Government’s announcement that President Ahmadinejad will attend this month’s United Nations General Assembly (which isn’t news at all, since he was always intending to go) and the declaration by the Government that it has “prepared an updated nuclear package” for Wednesday’s meeting of the “5+1″ countries (US, UK, France, Russia, China, Germany) in Frankfurt on Wednesday.
And to be honest, while the nuclear proposal will dominate media headlines over the next 24 hours (since US media, in particular, find the script easier with the Nuclear Threat story than with the complex politics inside Iran), it isn’t news either. The Iranian Government has been sending out signals for a few weeks that it might like to sit down and chat about the nuclear programme, not as much as a response to Western threats of sanctions as much as a diversion from internal conflict.
With regards to proposed health minister Marziyeh Vahid-Dastjerdi, [a bloc member] said that “certain reports about her business activities had reached the bloc which altered the opinion of the members about her”.
The Principlist Majlis deputy, who sits on another bloc as well, said about Sussan Keshavarz, who has been offered the education portfolio: “We have heard that she was active in the campaign headquarters of Mir-Hossein Mousavi.”…
The third candidate, Fatemeh Ajorloo, who was picked for the welfare post, was rejected because she “is too good”. “It would be a shame if she becomes welfare minister,” said the unnamed source, presumably because the ministry is due to be disbanded in the coming months.
Meanwhile, the reformist bloc of the Majlis has decided to vote in favor of Vahid-Dastjerdi.
1420 GMT: The Day’s Big (Unseen) Story? I saw this floating around yesterday — the storyinitially came out on the technology site of the Islamic Republic News Agency and then circulated on other Iranian websites — but it is only with the help of EA’s readers (see comments below) that I could put this together.
The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (Revolutionary Guard), which has become just as renowned in recent years for their role in Iran’s economy as for their security function, are set to buy a major stakeholding in the Iranian Telecommunications Agency.
Since 2005, Iran had planned to float the shares of the state company, which is one of three operators in the country. One of the other two is owned by Hashemi Rafsanjani, but its reach is limited to Tehran and some smaller smaller cities. The Revolutionary Guard already have a stake in Iran Cell, so if they were successful in their bid for shares of ITA, they would be in a leading position in Iran’s two major cellphone providers.
This is unlikely to be a case of the Guard showing up with chequebook in hand to buy the shares. Instead, as has been the case with other sectors such as pharmaceuticals and automobiles, the purchase will be made through a front company.
There is also an interesting international twist in this story. Earlier this summer, a Russian company was to be granted a license as the third national cellphone operator, but the process suddenly stalled last month (companies from the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait were also trying to get the license). The effective suspension is probably linked to the high process the Iranian Government was demanding, but it leaves the Revolutionary Guard in an even stronger position in the cellphone sector.
1400 GMT: In Case Anyone Really Cares. The actual address at Friday prayers in Tehran, as opposed to President Ahmadinejad’s introduction, was delivered by Hojetoleslam Sadighi. His headline declaration was that the “world’s exceptional crimes” are the crimes of Israel in Palestine.
1330 GMT: Today is turning into a contest of two statements and, in contrast to recent days, Western media are eagerly on top of the story. Former President Khatami’s statement to reformist leaders is being juxtaposed with current President Ahmadinejad’s speech at Friday prayers.
While there are a complex range of issues in this battle, from the legal issues of detentions/confessions/trials to the institutional challenges of who controls Iran’s bureaucracy and security forces to the political showdown over Ahmadinejad’s legitimacy, it is this sentence from Khatami that may represent the moment: “‘The sacred Friday prayer podium has been given to those who…call for the punishment of prominent figures…while they are accused in the eyes of the public for committing treason themselves.”
Even though Khatami was probably referring to Friday prayers past and addresses delivered by “hard-line” clerics such as Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami and Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, that sentence will be set next to Ahmadinejad’s none-too-subtle call for the arrests of protest leaders.
To put an immediate question: 48 hours after trying to avert a showdown with his own statement, the Supreme Leader finds the confrontation ratcheted up several notches. What does Khamenei do now? Read the rest of this entry »
2000 GMT: Here is That Split in the Judiciary. For those who don’t think there is a battle going on within the establishment, take note that pro-Ahmadinejad and anti-Ahmadinejad officials are praying in separate parts of the judiciary building.
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