2250 GMT: The Regime Sacrifices Mortazavi (on US Television). What a way to close the evening. In an interview on CNN tonight, Tehran University academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi effectively gave up former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi as the man responsible for the detainee abuses and deaths at Kahrizak Prison. We’ve got the video and a snap analysis.
1945 GMT: Don’t Look Now But…. Former 1st Vice President and Presidential ally Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai is handing out wisdom, according to Press TV: “The Islamic system’s adherence to keep an ‘unbreakable connection’ between its legitimacy and popularity is the key to its survival.”
Don’t want to rain on this supremacy parade, Mr R-M, but given recent developments (see 1035 GMT and 1100 GMT), you want to think about your own survival before pronouncing on that of the Islamic Republic. Read the rest of this entry »
2055 GMT: Keeping the Students Down. The Government effort to contain student protest continues. Iran’s national student organisation Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat reports that its political director, Abbas Hakimzadeh, has been arrested.
Kohzad Esmaili, head of the Gilan branch of the alumni organisation Advar-Tahkim-Vahdat (Office of Strengthening Unity), has been re-arrested after being freed on $20,000 bail.
2045 GMT: A Non-Crowd Story? While those pre-occupied with the nuclear issue try to read Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s Tabriz speech for signals (see 1425 GMT), the Green movement has other concerns, namely those who did or did not turn out:
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad received a very cold welcome from the citizens. Yoldash, the Green news organisation in Tabriz, reported that, despite the fact that the chief of “popular welcoming staff” of Ahmadinejad assured 100,000 people would be present at his speech today, only about 10-15,000 people participated in this event which can be easily recognized in the pictures taken by pro-coup Mehr news agency.
An EA source says that the Government tried to ensure a large turnout by giving university students, school children, and workers time off and transport to the rally. However, possibly because of the rain, possibly for other reasons, seats remained empty.
1805 GMT: Is Rafsanjani Lining Up with the Government’s Nuclear Proposal? Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has told the Swedish Ambassador to Iran that the International Atomic Energy Agency is legally obliged to provide 20 percent nuclear fuel to Tehran.
Sweden currently holds the European Union’s rotating presidency.
2100 GMT: We have posted an emergency update of our story on the National Unity Plan. To be blunt, this has turned into a giant mystery which we can lay out but not solve this evening, and there are likely to be further developments (even though it is early morning in Tehran) for our first update on Wednesday.
1700 GMT: We’ve split off our snap analysis updates on the National Unity Plan into a separate entry.
1430 GMT: Back from a teaching break to find tension growing over the privatisation of Iran’s state telecommunications company, with 51 percent going to a consortium linked to the Revolutionary Guard. It is reported that the Telecommunications Trade Council will review the deal, with the possibility of cancelling it because of concerns over a “monopoly”.
Ayatollah Larijani alluded to the necessity to immediately free some prisoners and punish the agents of the [offenses] at Kahrizak and the dormitories, and that judgments or indictments relating to the post-election events must be accurately based on judicial regulations.
Reading this in conjunction with the news of the release of high-profile detainees, albeit on bail (1650 GMT), NIAC concludes provocatively, “It remains to be seen if Larijani plans to engage in a full-blown offensive against the actions of the IRGC and the Shahroudi-era Judiciary, or if these are token attempts to restore legitimacy in the Islamic judiciary.”
1650 GMT: University Chancellor Released. Mohammad Zabihi, whom we reported (1450 GMT) had been in detention for almost two weeks, has been released on bail, although his son is still in prison.
Hamzeh Ghalebi, head of the youth branch of Mousavi’s campaign, has also been released after more than 70 days ago in detention. He was pressed to “confession” and was at one of the Tehran trials, although there were no charges against him in the indictment.
2115 GMT: Good Night. For us at EA, a thank you to all those who have joined today and a symbolic reminder: pictured at left is Neda Agha Soltan’s mother, who was not able to attend the ceremony at her daughter’s grave but who lit a candle in a nearby park as her memorial.
2110 GMT: Coming to the close of an eventful day, let’s drop in on Press TV’s coverage: “Iran’s opposition supporters, gathered at a cemetery in Tehran for a memorial service for the victims of the recent post-election unrest, have been met by Iranian police.”
The image of a casual “meeting”, perhaps for cake and a cup of tea, is dispelled in the next sentence, however, “Police forces on Thursday used tear gas to break up supporters of defeated presidential candidates Mehdi Karroubi and Mir-Hossein Mousavi.” And the overall report is neutral, even (whisper it) somewhat favourable towards the Green Movement.
That is, except for an obligatory last sentence: “Iranian authorities say foreign agents have fueled the post-vote violence which led to the deaths.”
2115 GMT: Meanwhile, Rafsanjani Plays It Cool. Amidst the Government chaos, the former President is playing down talk of a serious rift within the regime. According to Mehr News Agency, Rafsanjani praised the Supreme Leader, “He is a progressive and forward-looking thinker in different subjects. The propaganda by the foreign media who try to suggest that there is a power struggle in the top level of the regime is unfair injustice to the Islamic revolution.”
The statement appears to be a continuation of Rafsanjani’s strategy to show allegiance to Ayatollah Khamenei while manoeuvring against a weakened President: “I have hope in the supreme leader to solve the current problems based on his knowledge and experience and I still stick to the solutions I offered in the Friday prayer.”
With these comments, Rafsanjani is also maintaining his position against the “hard-line” members of the Assembly of Experts, who attempted to undermine him in a statement earlier this week.
2100 GMT: Well, This is a Fine Mess. Conflicting reports all night over the state of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. Some accounts now say that the President fired only Minister of Intelligence Ejeie and has not dismissed the other three (Culture, Health, and Labour); Ahmadinejad apparently realised he would face a vote of confidence in Parliament if all four ministers were removed from office.
2145 GMT: The death toll in Tehran may be far higher than official figures suggest. Fintan Dunne has posted this English rewrite of an article in Le Figaro:
One of a pair of Iranian doctors, who fled the capital to France says an unofficial tally by medical staff at Tehran area hospitals counted 92 violent deaths related to conflicts with security forces. The death toll is considerably at variance with an official figure of 17 deaths.
1700 GMT: An Iranian website is reporting on a meeting that Mir Hossein Mousavi held with “friends and acquaintances” on the occassion of Imam Ali’s birthday. Mousavi said that the election had shown the problems of the Iranian system and repeated that the State faced questions over its legitimacy at home and abroad. He declared, on the issue of protest, “The movement will continue,” but this would be within a legal framework.
1635 GMT: The Regime Wins One? Mehr News Agency reports that the Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, has finally congratulated President Ahmadinejad on his “victory”. Larijani had caused some friction for the post-election procession with his querying of the neutrality of the Guardian Council and his demand for an enquiry into the raids on the dormitories of Tehran University. (hat tip to Nico Pitney)
1555 GMT: But here’s the real significance of the Khamenei statement: yes, there is an fight going on within the rgime. According to Press TV, Khamenei “pointed to the internal disagreement among Iranian officials”, although he then “explained that despite such disputes these officials stand united against the enemy”. That’s the point to remember amidst his bluster, “In the event of enemy intervention, the Iranian nation, despite differences of opinion, will unite and become an iron fist against them.” Read the rest of this entry »
2250 GMT: The Regime Sacrifices Mortazavi (on US Television). What a way to close the evening. In an interview on CNN tonight, Tehran University academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi effectively gave up former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi as the man responsible for the detainee abuses and deaths at Kahrizak Prison. We’ve got the video and a snap analysis.
2055 GMT: Keeping the Students Down. The Government effort to contain student protest continues. Iran’s national student organisation Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat reports that its political director, Abbas Hakimzadeh, 
2100 GMT: We have posted 
1840 GMT: The 
2115 GMT: Good Night. For us at EA, a thank you to all those who have joined today and a symbolic reminder: pictured at left is Neda Agha Soltan’s mother, who was not able to attend the ceremony at her daughter’s grave but who lit a candle in a nearby park as her memorial.
2115 GMT: Meanwhile, Rafsanjani Plays It Cool. Amidst the Government chaos, 
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