2110 GMT: Not-Over-The-Top Statement of Today. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, testifying to a Congressional committee, reveals that the current manoeuvres over Iran’s uranium enrichment are just like the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis:
My reading of what happened with President Kennedy is that it’s exactly what he did. It was high-stakes diplomacy. It was pushing hard to get the world community to understand, going to the UN, making a presentation, getting international opinion against the placement of Russian weapons in Cuba, making a deal eventually with the Russians that led to the removal of the weapons.
That is the kind of high-stakes diplomacy that I’m engaged in, that other members of this administration are, because we take very seriously the potential threat from Iran.
2100 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. After all the political positions (take your pick) he adopted at the Assembly of Experts, Hashemi Rafsanjani used a ceremony at the tomb of the late Ayatollah Khomeini to issue a warning about “uninformed individuals” (who are they?): “These individuals shirk from their responsibilities and make irrelevant declarations, thus causing the leadership to bear the responsibility of all the actions that the people reject.”
1935 GMT: Diplomatic Poses (cont.). Well, I guess Washington had to strike its own posture given the statements of President Ahmadinejad and his Syrian counterpart Bashir al-Assad in Damascus today (1335 GMT). Here’s State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley:
As the secretary [Hillary Clinton] reiterated yesterday, we have expressed our concern directly to President (Bashar) Assad about Syria’s relationship with Iran. This is ultimately a decision that Syria has to make, but as President Assad assesses Syria’s long-term interests, he need only look around the region and recognize that Syria is increasingly an outlier.
We want to see Syria play a more constructive role in the region. One step would be to make clear what Iran’s need to do differently and unfortunately there was no evidence of that today.
The key here is that it is a spokesman making the statement, not the President, not the Secretary of State. Yes, of course, the US would prefer that Damascus put Iran into isolation. But they know that, given the regional dynamics, Syria will not publicly cut off Tehran. So the real diplomacy will take place away from these statements.
1925 GMT: Back from a lengthy academic break — the US Ambassador to Britain was in Birmingham today — to catch up on the full force of Iranian propaganda. Here is the “confession” of Jundullah leader Abdolmalek Rigi, tailor-made to put the US as the main sponsor of his terrorism:
After Obama was elected, the Americans contacted us and they met me in Pakistan.They met us after clashes with my group around March 17 in (the southeastern city of) Zahedan, and he (the US operative) said that Americans had requested a meeting.
I said we didn’t have any time for a meeting and if we do help them they should promise to give us aid. They said they would cooperate with us and will give me military equipment, arms and machine guns. They also promised to give us a base along the border with Afghanistan next to Iran.
They asked to meet me and we said where should we meet you and he said in Dubai. We sent someone to Dubai and we told a person to ask a place for myself in Afghanistan from the area near the operations and they complied that they would sort out the problem for us and they will find Mr. Rigi a base and guarantee his own security in Afghanistan or in any of the countries adjacent to Iran so that he can carry on his operations.
They told me that in Kyrgyzstan they have a base called Manas near Bishkek, and that a high-ranking person was coming to meet me and that if such high-ranking people come to the United Arab Emirates, they may be observed by intelligence people but in a place like Bishkek this high-ranking American person could come and we could reach an agreement on making personal contacts. But after the last major operation we took part in, they said that they wanted to meet with us.
The Americans said Iran was going its own way and they said our problem at the present is Iran…not al-Qaeda and not the Taliban, but the main problem is Iran. We don’t have a military plan against Iran. Attacking Iran is very difficult for us (the US). The CIA is very particular about you and is prepared to do anything for you because our government has reached the conclusion that there was nothing Americans could do about Iran and only I could take care of the operations for them.
One of the CIA officers said that it was too difficult for us to attack Iran militarily, but we plan to give aid and support to all anti-Iran groups that have the capability to wage war and create difficulty for the Iranian (Islamic) system. They reached the conclusion that your organization has the power to create difficulties for the Islamic Republic and they are prepared to give you training and/or any assistance that you would require, in terms of telecommunications security and procedures as well as other support, the Americans said they would be willing to provide it at an extensive level.
Ebrahim Yazdi, former Foreign Minister and head of the Freedom of Movement Iran, underwent open heart surgery soon after his 10-day release yesterday. His family said that the surgery was a success.
2110 GMT: On the day after Grand Ayatollah Montazeri denounced Iran’s “military state”, his three grandsons — Mohammad Mehdi, Mohammad Ali Montazeri, and Mohammad Sadegh — have been arrested.
2045 GMT: Over to You. What do you think Hashemi Rafsanjani is intending for Qods Day? We’ve posted a translation of his statement today, including his reference to “an absolutely illegitimate, fraudulent, and usurping Government”.
1910 GMT: Got It in One. Our prediction at 1450 GMT: “the Speaker of the Parliament asked Karroubi to please refrain from taking to the streets this Friday on Qods Day, promising in return a genuine Parliamentary review of the claims of detainee abuse.”
From Rouydad News: “Larijani asked Karoubi to keep quiet for a while. Karoubi said I will die but I won’t keep quiet.”
1830 GMT: Did Rafsanjani Just Bless the (Green) Cause? Our sharp readers will have noted our caution in the previous entry. While Hashemi Rafsanjani had asked Iranians to march on Friday, he had referred to the cause of Palestine.
The Internet is buzzing, however, with the reading that the former President has now signalled that he is with the opposition. The key sentence? The Iranian version of “It is always darkest just before dawn”.
1738 GMT: The website of the Supreme Leader has denied the claim that Hashemi Rafsanjani, in a talk with Ayatollah Khamenei, threatened to resign all his positions if Mehdi Karroubi was arrested.
1910 GMT: Earlier this evening, I chatted with Fintan Dunne about the day’s events and their political significance. He’ll be posting the audio on his blog later, but a couple of points that stood out for me:
1. If a “victory” had to be declared, it went to the opposition challenge. Despite all the Government detentions, threats, and disruptions of communications, thousands (and, while exact numbers cannot be determined, it appears from reports and video footages to be thousands rather than hundreds) gathered at locations across Tehran. The weeks of pressure had not broken the protests.
There were “bonuses” for the opposition as well in a reduction in violence by security forces (for whatever reason), which bolstered confidence amongst demonstrators as the day developed, the lack of any indication that the protesters were sponsored by “foreign enemies”, and the first significant video footage in weeks to come out of Tehran. And, while one has to be cautious in generalising from the audio on that footage, there were bold chants of “Ya Hossein, Mir Hossein” and criticism of the Supreme Leader’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei.
2. That, however, is only part of the story. There are two halves to the challenge: the public protest and the manoeuvres of the political leadership. So far Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami have not followed up the marches with statements and indications of next steps.
3. And what of the political manoeuvres within the regime? Already attention moves from today to tomorrow. The issue at Friday prayers at the University of Tehran is not only who will be leading them but who will not. Has former President Hashemi Rafsanjani declined and does that mark, in addition to this week’s criticism of the government as “illegitimate” by a political party linked to him, his challenge to President Ahmadinejad and pressure for changes in the Iranian system?
1900 GMT: This, word for word, is Press TV English’s current summary of today’s demonstrations in their “News in Brief”, under the headline “No Major Protests in Tehran”: ”
A few hundred demonstrators have gathered on the sidewalks in the streets leading to Tehran University. Police used tear gas in one locality to disperse the crowd. Security has been tight in the streets of downtown Tehran Thursday but onlookers did gather to watch the demonstrations.
An apology: we reported an hour ago that Mir Hossein Mousavi has issued a short statement welcoming the protest tomorrow. Should have checked the date: the statement is for the protest of 18 June.
2010 GMT: We’ve now carefully gone through this afternoon’s important story in The Guardian to assess not only the significance of the Supreme Leader’s son, Moqtaba Khamenei, in recent events but the possibility of a “counter-coup” provoked by anger against Moqtaba’s manoeuvres. The analysis is in a separate blog.
1630 GMT: Detention Ups and Downs. Reports throughout the day that Iran’s chief prosecutor has met with Ministry of Interior officials to discuss the fate of detainees. One report says more than 500 files will be sent to the judiciary next week. Meanwhile, the head of Iran’s police says another 100 detainees will soon be released. Read the rest of this entry »
2110 GMT: Not-Over-The-Top Statement of Today. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, testifying to a Congressional committee, reveals that the current manoeuvres over Iran’s uranium enrichment are just like the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis:
2110 GMT: On the day after Grand Ayatollah Montazeri denounced Iran’s “military state”, his three grandsons — Mohammad Mehdi, Mohammad Ali Montazeri, and Mohammad Sadegh — 
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