The nearly nine months since Iran’s presidential election sparked widespread popular demonstrations against alleged vote-rigging have been among the most tumultuous in the history of the Islamic Republic, which marks the 31st anniversary of the revolution that paved the way for its establishment on February 11, 2010. This has been a period of repeated serious human rights abuses that include extra-judicial killings, violations of the rights to freedom of assembly and expression, and the prohibition of torture, not to mention arbitrary arrest and detention and countless due process violations.
In the two months immediately following the June 12 election, the government carried out a major campaign of repression that included mass detentions of protestors, political reform figures, and rights activists, culminating in public trials in August. November and December saw renewed attacks on protestors as large demonstrations commemorated significant dates in the history of the Islamic revolution and the Shia Muslim religious calendar.
1900 GMT: Some Good News for Mahmoud. President Ahmadinejad and his Brazilian counterpart, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, signed 13 cooperation agreements on trade, energy, stocks and banking, agriculture, news agenices, technology, culture, and visa requirements.
1735 GMT: Mortazavi Mystery Over? After days of rumours that he was in Evin Prison, former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi has appeared at the memorial service for Ali Kordan, the former Minister of Interior who died this weekend.
1725 GMT: Isolating Rafsanjani? Division of opinion here amongst EA staff: one colleague is saying Hashemi Rafsanjani is a spent force while another is arguing strongly that “the Shark” is far from finished and about to make another move.
If the latter, those in the regime opposed to Rafsanjani (and possibly worried about the possibility of his working in combination with Ali Larijani) will try to block it. Having dismissed him from the rota for Friday Prayers in Tehran and the Qods Day Prayer, authorities are now taking away the Eid al-Adha Prayer from Rafsanjani and giving it to Ahmad Khatami.
2030 GMT: Punishment Going Up. Reports now indicate that Ahmad Zeidabadi, whose sentencing we reported earlier (1620 GMT), received a six-year prison sentence. In addition, he will spend five years in exile in the northeastern city of Gonabad and be banned from civil activities for life. Bail for his freedom while the case is appealed is $500,000.
2025 GMT: Ahmadinejad in Brazil. That’s right, it’s a second continent today on the I’m a World Leader, Get Me Out of Tehran tour (see 0635 GMT), though there is little more than a picture to report.
1925 GMT: More on Larijani v. Ahmadinejad. Khabar Online (the online version of the newspaper which either chose to close today in favour of Web publication or which has been suspended by the Government) is schizophrenic over a possible bust-up between the Parliament and the President.
The English-language version goes to great pains to deny tries to curb talk of a rift, with MPs blaming media and anti-Ahmadinejad opposition for the rumours. The Persian-language site, however, highlights a speech by Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani warning against “dictatorship” and defending former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.
1905 GMT: Tehran’s Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi says two Germans and a Canadian, detained on 13 Aban, have been released. It is unclear if the Canadian is one of the four foreign journalists who were arrested (see 1155 GMT).
1820 GMT: MediaFail of the Day. Even by the standards set by the Islamic Republic News Agency for “information”, this is Gold-Medal journalism. From Mehdi Karroubi’s son, Hossein Karroubi:
On Thursday [5 November], IRNA released an interview said to be with me which was completely false and lies. In these comments IRNA claimed that I have said Mr. Mousavi was not brave enough to attend the November 4th protest and that I have accused him of lying.
There is no need to explain that because of Mr. Mousavi’s and Mr. Karoubi’s character and of course their bravery that we know about, they will continue to lead the Green movement of Iran with unity in their actions and they will not give up until we reach the goals of the movement and eliminate the power of liars.These kinds of lies will only make the strong determination of Mr. Mousavi in fight against lies even stronger and will further prove that he has chosen his mission in this fight justly.
1725 GMT: What does “Obama, You’re With Them or You’re With Us” Mean? Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has an interesting article, “What Does Iran’s Green Movement Want from Obama?”. Assuming those interviewed are representative of the movement, the message is: 1) of course, no US interference but 2) no eagerness for a nuclear deal with the Ahmadinejad Government and 3) condemnation of Iran’s human rights abuses with inclusion of the issue in any US talks with Tehran.
1550 GMT: More on Friday Prayers (see 1145 GMT). The Los Angeles Times has a lengthy summary of today’s service in Tehran, from which a couple of interesting twists emerge. Read the rest of this entry »
2030 GMT. Harrumph, harrumph. The Financial Times, which is vying with The Times of London to be the at-hand Government channel for “news”, uses several hundred words as a backdrop for this fist-shaking from “a senior British government official”:
It is important that IAEA inspectors are given access to Qom immediately. We regret that Iran is delaying this until October 25. We see no reason for a delay. What possible reason can there be for it?
Given that the IAEA and even most of the Obama Administration welcomed the agreement, one has to wonder whether this is the same “rogue” British official who gave the FT their recent non-story on “secret Iran nuclear arms plan”, whether this is a concerted London effort to play “tough cop” alongside a more conciliatory US, or whether Gordon Brown’s Government has decided it really doesn’t want meaningful negotiations.
1945 GMT: We’re not asleep. It’s just a very slow night for news, and we’re also suffering from a bit of fatigue after a heavy academic day.
However, I think you can look forward to some new analysis on Hashemi Rafsanjani by the morning. And we’re trying valiantly to track down the video of last night’s interview on CNN by Christiane Amanpour of Ray Takeyh, formerly of the National Security Council, and Seyed Mohammad Marandi of the University of Tehran. (Coincidentally, I’ve worked with both on academic projects.)
1705 GMT: Establishment Battles Resume? Parleman News is claiming that supporters of President Ahmadinejad have tried — and failed — to unseat Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani as the head of the Principlist majority group. If true, this could be a sign that the temporary reconciliation of conservative and principlist factions, prominent at the start of September with the approval of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet, may be breaking down.
And that in turn raises the question: is this split being fostered by the imminence of a National Unity Plan which may seek to marginalise Ahmadinejad?
1640 GMT: We think Hashemi Rafsanjani’s statement, which we noted here earlier, is important enough to warrant a separate entry.
1625 GMT: The Unity Gesture? EA’s Mr Smith predicted that this step would occur in the Supreme Leader’s speech at the end of Ramadan on 20 September. Looks like he was only two weeks off: “Iran is to release on bail around 20 people accused of post-election violence, including top reformists and an Iranian-American scholar.”
According to the Islamic Republic News Agency, citing a source inside Iran’s judiciary, those who may be freed include former Vice President Mohammed Ali Abtahi, journalist Mohammad Atrianfar, reformist leaders Shahab Tabatabaei, Saeed Shariati and Abdollah Momeni, and Iranian-American academic Kian Tajbakhsh.
1430 GMT: Pointless Analysis of Day. A Jeffrey Kuhner, the declared President of the “Edmund Burke Institute”, is allowed to take up space in The Washington Times with this: “War with Iran is now inevitable. The only question is: Will it happen sooner or later?”
1240 GMT: Good Cop, Bad Cop. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has provided the critical counterpoint to the positive signals from this morning’s briefing by IAEA head Mohammad El-Baradei (0905-0920 GMT):
The [IAEA] is an international authority which should supervise all nuclear activities of states, but the agency’s records indicate that it was not successful in this regard for political reasons. The agency acted successfully with regard to nuclear activities in certain places like Japan, but it bowed [to pressure] where it faced political barriers and proved unsuccessful.
The head of Iran’s nuclear programme, Ali Akhbar Salehi, sounded a different tune after his press conference with El Baradei. Confirming the late October inspection date for the second enrichment plant and discusions on “third-party enrichment”, he said, “As far as safeguards are concerned, Iran’s nuclear issue has been fully resolved.”
1200 GMT: Report that two members of the reformist student group Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat (Unity Consolidation Bureau) are still in Evin Prison, with 16 released yesterday. Original reports were that there were 15 detainees, and all were freed.
0920 GMT: El Baradei calls for Iran to rejoin the Subsidiary Protocol (Code 3.1) of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which provides a stricter framework for inspection and monitoring. Iran left the Protocol in 2007 after a dispute with the IAEA over access to information on military programmes as well as the nuclear facilities.
1520 GMT: EA’s Mr Johnson goes over the Rafsanjani speech, adding to and correcting our earlier analysis.
While there is no open challenge to the Government, Rafsanjani’s call for unity includes recognition and inclusion of those senior clerics who have offered criticisms: “A measured thoughtful approach can lead to an optimal solution for the problems….The help and support of the Marjas (Grand Ayatollahs ) for the Establishment is absolutely necessary. In the last 30 years we have never had a problem in this regard and hopefully in the future this will not happen again. Threats must stop and small problems that must not be allowed to cause rifts [between the establishment and Marjas].”
Then Rafsanjani manoeuvred behind the general chiding of Ayatollah Khamenei of conflict: “The Supreme Leader has condemned the atmosphere of defamation and confrontation that currently exists….All of us officials must pay attention to these issues so that this atmosphere does not get worse.”
This led to the key passage of Rafsanjani’s strategy of resolution which EA noted earlier: “Currently experienced and concerned individuals of the establishment are in the process of designing a blueprint providing a solution for the current situation….Considering that the University academic year will start soon, these efforts can be very useful, and we must reduce opaqueness from the atomosphere of society and refrain from opaque acts…so that an atmosphere for constructive criticism of society can be created….The supreme leader has emphasized the importance of the law, therefore both officials [a.k.a the Goverment and the Revolutionary Guards] and the protesters must act according to law.”
And so Rafsanjani’s manouevre without direct reference to the issues of detentions and abuses: “Both the officials and the protesters must not expect indifference if they break the law, since lawlessness breeds chaos in society…The supreme leader has also emphasized that the right of people to defend themselves [from accusations] must be observed [and] has prohibited broadcasting the confessions of accused individuals….If any member of the media broadcasts a confession accusing others [that broadcast] is against the law and must be prosecuted. The fact that certain members of the media [irresponsibly] publish whatever they choose is against the law and should be dealt with.”
Mr Johnson also clarifies and corrects our earlier report — it was Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi (not Mesbah Yazdi) who was absent a very well-attended session.
1105 GMT: Speculation of Day. According to witness accounts, members’ turnout at the Assembly of Experts meeting was the highest ever, but the Vice Chairman, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a fervent supporter of President Ahmadinejad, was absent.
1045 GMT: 1030 GMT: More on the Rafsanjani statement, as presented by ILNA:
As expected, it is very clever and very cautious, with interpretation left to the beholder. Rafsanjani upheld the greatness of the Iranian nation on Qods Day, as the “holy and glorious presence” of marchers make clear that the defense of rights would never be forgotten. Iranians were ever-ready to stand up to “imperialists” and their “psychological warfare” trying to reduce Iran to “passivity” ahead of negotiations. The priority for Iranians was the “unity of our country”.
Nothing there to separate Rafsanjani from the Government, especially as the call could be read as defiance of the “West” in talks on Iran’s nuclear question. And the former President’s reference to the recent assassination of the Kurdestan member of the Assembly was a call to support the security forces and judiciary as they investigated and prosecuted such crimes.
But what of the security forces, and the Government behind them, in the post-election conflict? Ahh, there’s the rub: there’s no obvious reference by Rafsanjani on that key matter, leaving his audience — whatever their position on and in the issue — in suspense.
1030 GMT: Gary Sick offers an excellent analysis of a recent poll of Iranians regarding the election and its aftermath. EA’s Chris Emery adds his own take:
I think there are some statistical anomalies with the poll and major methodological problems- there is a perception that the government routinely tap phones and this will affect people’s responses to some degree. There was also a very high refusal rate amongst those called (52%).
In many ways its greatest signficance lies in how it has been read. Those, especially in the West, who cry foul on the methodology will be to some degree influenced by their refusal to accept the unpalatable truth that Ahmadinejad is undoubtedly popular amongst millions of Iranians. On the other hand, I would never use this poll as a litmus test for support within either camp. The situation is simply far more complicated and the dynamics of the current power struggles cannot be accurately drawn out from this poll.
In sum, it is more interesting to watch how it is kicked around as a political football than as a genuine indicator of the relative strength of either Ahmadinejad or the Green’s position.
0945 GMT: The spin is coming in on Hashemi Rafsanjani’s statement at the Assembly of Experts meeting. The Iranian Labor News Agency links a call for unity with a declaration that resolution is imminent: “Those who care about the Regime have devised a plan to get out of current situation.”
0915 GMT: The “Western” media are running with “news” that President Ahmadinejad has claimed that “his country is now stronger than ever and warned that Iranian military will retaliate with full might against anyone who dares attack it”.
This is not news. If Ahmadinejad had told those assembled for the military parade commemorating the 1980-1988 Iraq War that Iran was really weak and its military hopeless, that would be news. The story, however, will set up tomorrow’s coverage of the UN speech: Big, Bad Ahmadinejad and the World That Must Confront Him.
Of course, it’s not like Mahmoud isn’t helping the portrayal: “Our armed forces will cut the hand of anyone in the world before it pulls the trigger against the Iranian nation,” Ahmadinejad said during a military parade marking the anniversary of the start of the 1980-1988 Iraq-Iran war.
2010 GMT: The buzz over Imam Khomeini’s grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, continues. After his appearance yesterday at the Supreme Leader’s speech (analysed in a separate entry), the Islamic Republic News Agency has attacked him for his continued visits to the families of detainees (see 1510 GMT).
1535 GMT: Revelation of the Day. Rooz Online claims that the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps has ordered the Ministry of Health not to release the medical records of recently injured protesters, thus covering up the cause of their wounds.
Afternoon Update (1510 GMT): A New Act in the Crackdown? State TV has again put high-profile reformist detainees Saeed Hajjarian, Mohammad Atrianfar, and Saeed Shariati on air in a two-day roundtable to explain and analyse their transgressions, no doubt re-drawing the picture of foreign-directed attempts at regime change. The trio were featured in a roundtable last month after the first wave of Tehran trials.
Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Imam Khomeini, has continued his visits to the families of post-election detainees. The visits have been seen as symbolic of Khomeini’s challenge to the current Government and have resumed a day after his appearance at the Supreme Leader’s Eid-al-Fitr address.
Parliament Qualms? Deputy Speaker Mohammad Reza Bahonar has again raised the prospect of a legislative clash with the President after the cease-fire that led to approval of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. Bahonar has expressed qualms about the President’s power, saying he is worried that Ahmadinejad will start changing Ministers and declaring that Parliament will force Government to abide by laws.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1910 GMT: Prosecuting Journalists. Reporters without Borders has published a summary of latest news on 
2030 GMT: Punishment Going Up. Reports now indicate that Ahmad Zeidabadi, whose sentencing we reported earlier (1620 GMT), 
1905 GMT: Tehran’s Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi says two Germans and a Canadian, detained on 13 Aban, 
2030 GMT. Harrumph, harrumph. The Financial Times, which is vying with The Times of London to be the at-hand Government channel for “news”, uses several hundred words as a backdrop for 
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