2215 GMT: On? Off? Well, I guess for a day that started with a projection of Government uncertainty, it is appropriate that it should end that way. Having said on Saturday that Iran could reject the Vienna enrichment deal, top lawmaker Alaeddin Boroujerdi http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/1016801/1/.html on Sunday, “Our first option is to buy fuel of 20 per cent (enrichment). But if we cannot buy it we could make a limited exchange on condition that first we get fuel of 20 per cent.”
So is Boroujerdi shifting in recognition that pro-deal forces have pressed ahead (see 1640 GMT)? Or is he just manoeuvring for a better position, working with allies, to hold out against any agreement?
2030 GMT: Another day with some releases from prison and some cases going to trial. The file of Mohsen Aminzadeh, Deputy Foreign Minister in the Khatami Government, has been sent to the Revolutionary Court.
1930 GMT: An Iranian blogger reports that Mohammad-Hossein Saffar-Harandi, the former Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance, was met by sustained protests when he visited Gilan University in northern Iran today and left to shouts of “Murderer, Get Out!”. We have video in a separate entry.
1640 GMT: Nuclear Deal On? Yes, the Ahmadinejad Government is pressing ahead, despite objections from within the establishment. Read the rest of this entry »
Yesterday we began with two tasks: 1) to see if the regime was really in disarray over its response to the latest challenges of 13 Aban, and 2) to watch for signs of the Green opposition’s next move after the marches, given 48 hours of near-silence. Well, we are getting a response to the second question.
Former President Mohammad Khatami resurfaced with a strong statement challenging the legitimacy of the Government and later met Mehdi Karroubi. Today Mir Hossein Mousavi has appeared for the first time since 13 Aban, visiting — like Khatami did on Friday — Karroubi advisor Morteza Alviri, who was recently released from detention. Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has been interviewed again, criticising detainee abuses and questioning the legal basis of confessions.
Early in the crisis, an EA reader suggested that the Green movement was operating tactically with Mousavi as the political leader, Khatami as the respected figure making criticisms of the Government, and Karroubi as the charismatic cleric who could mobilise the energy of the opposition. Given the difficulties with communication and organisation, as well as the ongoing debate over the next moves of the movement (again, see the excellent discussion amongst our readers), that depiction is probably an aspiration rather than a coordinated approach.
Yet I sense that, far from sapping the strength of the movement, 13 Aban has renewed it. Part of that strength comes from anger at the violence and detentions of Wednesday. But at least part of it is coming from the belief that defeat will not come from the Government’s heavy fist. The discussion about “What is to Done?” is being fuelled, I think, by the perception of the opposition that its fate now lies in its own hands, rather than the actions of a Khamenei, an Ahmadinejad, or the Revolutionary Guard.
And that is where Saturday’s answer to our first question enters. To be blunt, the President did not address the nation Saturday night. He had not spoken, as initially promised, on the evening of 13 Aban (remember, he decided not to compete with the under-17 World Cup match between Iran and Uruguay). Now, after 24 hours of build-up, he was stepping away from the podium again, allegedly because of a trip today to Turkey.
But, while Ahmadinejad silenced himself, the disputes continued. The Government is now in an internal fight over not only the nuclear talks but its approach to foreign policy: will engagement with the US be sacrificed, as it appears key conservatives/principlists and possibly the Supreme Leader want, to re-establish the supposed strength of the regime? Parliament is still causing some trouble over the economic programme, and the first signs of the consequences of subsidy reform — a rise in bread prices — emerged Saturday. The Revolutionary Guard seems to be in a continued distraction in the aftermath of the Baluchestan bombing.
All of which led to a curiosity of mixed signals yesterday on how to meet the opposition challenge. Having pursued mass detention on Wednesday, the Government appeared to be backing away on Saturday. While prosecutors and police chiefs could not give accurate figures on the number of those arrested, all their public statements points to a softening of position, with the declaration of releases of most of those detained.
And last night, almost unnoticed, confirmation came that two leading reformists, Ali Tajernia and Ebrahim Amini, had been released after months in detention. That overshadowed any announcement of the trials that were supposedly taking place in the Revolutionary Court on Saturday.
I’m now looking for the vapour trails from the President’s flight to Ankara. If I don’t see them, watch for another update. One that (very cautiously) considers that the President may be in the greatest spot of bother he has encountered since the end of June.
2240 GMT: Confirmation that Ebrahim Amini, of the Etemade Melli party and a close relative of Mehdi Karroubi, has also been released from detention.
2150 GMT: Dr. Ali Tajernia, former MP and senior member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been released after 140 days in detention.
2145 GMT: Human Rights Activists in Iran has a Farsi-language update on detainees, including the transfer of 95 people arrested on 13 Aban from detention centres to Evin Prison.
2130 GMT: Confirming indications we had received from EA sources in recent weeks, the Supreme Leader has reinstated Ezatullah Zarghami as head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting for five years.
Zarghami had been considered vulnerable because of regime dissatisfaction with IRIB’s output before and after the Presidential election, but a suitable replacement could not be arranged. Khamenei indicated this with a call for Zarghami to “take advantage of successful or unsuccessful experiences of the past five years to help this medium reach a better quality”.
2125 GMT: Iran’s Internal Nuclear Dispute. Press TV’s website is now featuring the anti-talks line taken by high-profile MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi (see 0845 GMT).
1905 GMT: Tehran’s Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi says two Germans and a Canadian, detained on 13 Aban, have been released. It is unclear if the Canadian is one of the four foreign journalists who were arrested (see 1155 GMT).
1820 GMT: MediaFail of the Day. Even by the standards set by the Islamic Republic News Agency for “information”, this is Gold-Medal journalism. From Mehdi Karroubi’s son, Hossein Karroubi:
On Thursday [5 November], IRNA released an interview said to be with me which was completely false and lies. In these comments IRNA claimed that I have said Mr. Mousavi was not brave enough to attend the November 4th protest and that I have accused him of lying.
There is no need to explain that because of Mr. Mousavi’s and Mr. Karoubi’s character and of course their bravery that we know about, they will continue to lead the Green movement of Iran with unity in their actions and they will not give up until we reach the goals of the movement and eliminate the power of liars.These kinds of lies will only make the strong determination of Mr. Mousavi in fight against lies even stronger and will further prove that he has chosen his mission in this fight justly.
1725 GMT: What does “Obama, You’re With Them or You’re With Us” Mean? Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has an interesting article, “What Does Iran’s Green Movement Want from Obama?”. Assuming those interviewed are representative of the movement, the message is: 1) of course, no US interference but 2) no eagerness for a nuclear deal with the Ahmadinejad Government and 3) condemnation of Iran’s human rights abuses with inclusion of the issue in any US talks with Tehran.
1550 GMT: More on Friday Prayers (see 1145 GMT). The Los Angeles Times has a lengthy summary of today’s service in Tehran, from which a couple of interesting twists emerge. Read the rest of this entry »
2040 GMT: It’s Official: Bring It On. First we had Mir Hossein Mousavi’s statement, now we have Mehdi Karroubi’s signal that he will be joining the crowds on 13 Aban. The cleric has promised further details soon but indicated that he will be joining students at the “Polytechnic” in Tehran. This may refer to Amir Kabir University, although earlier chatter said Karroubi would be going to Sharif University.
2020 GMT: Handing Down “Justice”. The deputy head of Iran’s judiciary, Ebrahim Raeesi, has announced that sentences for 50 post-election detainees have been issued. Some detainees are appealing the verdicts, and Raeesi urged colleagues to speed up the processing of the cases.
For Raeesi, it is clear, has made his mind: “Those who have proposed the elections were fraudulent and created doubt in the public’s mind have undoubtedly committed a grave crime and naturally will have to answer for the crime they have committed.”
1930 GMT: We’ve now posted the English translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s statement welcoming the 13 Aban (4 November) demonstrations (see 1200 and 1215 GMT). The declaration is a spirited presentation of and for the Green movement in the context of the history of 13 Aban, Ayatollah Khomeini, and the Islamic Revolution.
And it is also a spirited criticism of Ahmadinejad’s negotiations over the nuclear programme with the United States and other countries, accusing the President of selling out Iran for the sake of his personal position: “Today, it appears that a large proportion of the product of Iran’s nuclear program, which has caused much chaos and brought a number of sanctions for the people, must be handed to another country, in hopes that they will be kind enough to offer us some fuel later on.
1740 GMT: Former President Mohammad Khatami has met with members of the Central Council of the Islamic Association of Tehran University and Tehran Medical Sciences. Khatami warned that surveillance into personal affairs of people is not allowed even in the cases of those who do not believe in the Establishment or in God, as long as they do not use weapons.
The former President emphasised that the Green movement is against violence but in the opposite side there are some who only think and act violently. Khatami said it must first be accepted that there is a crisis in the society, and then one can find the solution; if there are mistakes in analysing the current situation, there will be more problems in the future. Read the rest of this entry »
Yesterday (Oct 10, 2009) Mir Hossein Mousavi visited Mehdi Karroubi in his home to talk about the post-election events. In this meeting both presidential candidates by pointing out the efforts of the IRIB (the state-run TV and radio channels) to diminish the reform movement, emphasised on their legal rights and demanded to appear on TV/radio to defend themselves and reply to the false accusations made against them on the “national” stage.
Yesterday Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, the one-time successor to Ayatollah Khomeini, wrote marjas (senior Shia clerics), Islamic scholars, and seminaries about the deviation from Islam of the recent behavior of the Iranian authorities. Hours later the regime arrested his three grandsons.
In the Name of Allah, the Compassionate, and the Merciful,
According to the Prophet of God: “When a Bid’ah [1]occurs in my Ummah, the scholars’ knowledge will be known” (Al-Kaffi, Volume 1, Page 54).
Honorable Marjas and scholars of Qom, Najaf, Holy Mashad, Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz, Shiraz and all other corners of the Islamic world:
With regards,
Concerning the abuses that we are witnessing every day and the illicit behavior that has been justified in the name of religion and Islamic jurisprudence: I herby find myself religiously responsible to solemnly remind you of the following, based on the danger that I feel and the gravity of [the verse] “remind them, [because] reminders will benefit the Faithful”.
1- We all know that our Revolution was one based on religious and moral values. Our goal in bearing the hardship of all those tragedies, struggles, exiles, imprisonments and tortures, was not to change the people in power and the formalities in some specific areas. Rather, the goal was to [establish] a government that was faithful to ethical beliefs and to clear, religious edicts on all levels.
In the name of God, the Merciful, the Compassionate.
To the Noble and History-Making Nation of Iran.
As you know, Your Servant during the days following the elections stormy events have passed these last three months for this country and this system. Letters of admonition and information were written one after the other to the officials in the hope that there would be an opening and lest rights be trampled and there be oppression and the suffering and sighs of the oppressed would seize our skirts and not release them. For as we know from religion’s counsel and history’s experience, “The realm survives in unbelief but does not survive in oppression.” [In Arabic.] Read the rest of this entry »
2215 GMT: On? Off? Well, I guess for a day that started with a projection of Government uncertainty, it is appropriate that it should end that way. Having said on Saturday that Iran could reject the Vienna enrichment deal, top lawmaker Alaeddin Boroujerdi http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/1016801/1/.html on Sunday, “Our first option is to buy fuel of 20 per cent (enrichment). But if we cannot buy it we could make a limited exchange on condition that first we get fuel of 20 per cent.”
2240 GMT: Confirmation that Ebrahim Amini, of the Etemade Melli party and a close relative of Mehdi Karroubi, 
2040 GMT: It’s Official: Bring It On. First we had Mir Hossein Mousavi’s statement, now we have Mehdi Karroubi’s signal that 
Yesterday Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, the one-time successor to Ayatollah Khomeini, wrote marjas (senior Shia clerics), Islamic scholars, and seminaries about the deviation from Islam of the recent behavior of the Iranian authorities. Hours later the regime arrested his three grandsons.
23 Shahrivar 1388/September 14, 2009
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