Iran: So what happens on the day after 22 Bahman? And what does it all mean?
We have three special reports and analyses this morning. Mr Verde sees the Regime’s win yesterday as pyrrhic: “For any regime, especially one that claims to be a popular republic based on Islam, pointing TV cameras at the right-looking crowd while beating the “wrong crowd” with all its might, especially on the anniversary of its formation, is not a victory.”
EA’s Scott Lucas considers the political significance of yesterday’s events, and concludes that, if President Ahmadinejad could be said to have won, then he “won ugly”. EA correspondent Mr Azadi, who was in close contact with sources in Tehran throughout Thursday, gives a detailed summary from eyewitness accounts. We have also highlighted Pedestrian’s snapshot and compelling interpretation that any “defeat” for the opposition yesterday was a tactical miscalculation rather than the end of the challenge to the Government.
We have posted an ABC TV interview with internet activist Mehdi Saharkhiz(of “Only Mehdi” fame) and will continue to add to yesterday’s video posts from Iran (set four can be viewed here), together with other TV coverage that has and will become available.
The regime’s propaganda machine drones on about nukes, nukes and more nukes, trying to divert attention away from internal squabbles and human rights issues. We’ll keep you updated on all the news our live weblog throughout the day.
0600 GMT: News this morning continues to be dominated by the political moves around the killing of Professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi.
Non-Iranian media are picking up on the messages of condolence from former Presidents Mohammad Khatami and Hashemi Rafsanjani (see yesterday’s updates), noting that both call the murder an act of terrorism but that neither attributes blame to a particular group.
Khatami echoed the language of Iranian state media with the declaration, “The dirty hand who did this murder with no doubt was the enemy of Iran,” and he condemned the group trying to “further destabilise the crisis”. He stopped there, however, with no further indication of what that group was. Rafsanjani’s reference to “cowardly terrorism” may have taken one step towards the regime by denouncing “a new era of intrigue”, but he stopped ther
That is significant, of course, for what is not said. Neither Khatami nor Rafsanjani are going to provoke a confrontation with the regime but hinting at responsibility of any element within it, or even a “rogue element” whose actions are being covered up. At the same time, neither are going to join in the state strategy of US-Israel-MKO-monarchists killing Ali-Mohammadi to disrupt Iran’s nuclear programme and/or to destabilise the Government.
When Iran entered 2009, most observers thought that the year — which marked the 30th anniversary of the Revolution that swept away the Shah’s regime and the 20th anniversary of “post-Khomeini Iran”, the unwieldy political arrangement that emerged in the aftermath of the death of the founding father of the Islamic Republic — would also see a lacklustre confirmation of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for a second Presidential term.
As Iran exits the year, it is reeling from its worst-ever political crisis, one that has finally undermined the halo of sanctity built over the persona of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in the past two decades and has finally witnessed the collapse of the fragile factional equilibrium that held sway for the past decade.
After half a decade of carefully pasteurised electoral lists produced by the Guardian Council, there were serious doubts about the population’s appetite for electoral politics. Iranian history, however, always remind us that change is sudden and abrupt rather than gradual and predictable. Conscious of their eroding influence in state affairs and their descent into oblivion in the eyes of public opinion, reformist political leaders were determined to make a last stand, one that had to rely upon the return to the scene of its most prominent figure. Read the rest of this entry »
2200 GMT: Stopping the Mourners. Rouydad News carries a story we’ve been hearing on the Internet all evening: Iranian security forces have stopped a bus carrying families of political prisoners and members of Women’s Human Rights Committee to the funeral of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri in Qom, arresting several people.
2049 GMT: The Revolutionary Danger of Dating. More than 60 operators and managers of Iranian Internet sites for dating have been arrested for anti-cultural and immoral activities in their promotion of “a gallivanting lifestyle”.
2045 GMT: The Kahrizak Abuses. The blog Persian2English has produced an English translation of the official report of the Armed Forces judiciary panel concluding that three detainees died from abuse at Kahrizak Prison.
1845 GMT: Another Demonstration. A brief video clip has come in of a protest today at Arak University.
1600 GMT: Ongoing Coverage of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri’s Death. We have updated with extensive information and analysis on condolences, political developments, and plans — including tomorrow’s funeral — surround Montazeri’s passing.
1345 GMT: EA’s Mr Smith comments:
Grand Ayatollahs Safi Golpayegani, Mousavi Ardabili, and Sanei and Ayatollahs Gerami, Shabbiri Zanjani, Mousavi Tabrizi, and Taheri Khorramabadi have visited Montazeri’s bayt (house) to offer their respects. This is extremely important as, in Shia clerical custom, going to someone’s house means deferring to that person’s authority and or power. It is therefore a significant slap in the face of Government efforts to belittle Montazeri.
1145 GMT: The Political Challenge of Montazeri. We’re getting a lot of news on the regime’s attempts to deal with the challenge posed by Grand Ayatollah Montazeri’s death, first by ignoring it, now by belittling it and criticising the cleric — all will be posted soon in an update in our separate entry.
Meanwhile Mr Smith checks in to give the political dimension of the events: “Montazeri simply could not have died at a more topical moment: the seventh day of his passing will be none other than Ashura itself, which this year is shaping up to be the very worst in the lives of Khameni, Ahmadinejad and their cohorts. The pressure on them on those days simply cannot be measured.”
1135 GMT: Videos, Protests in Memory of Montazeri. We’ve posted the first videos of demonstrations in memory of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, and we also have put up the video of his October criticism that the Supreme Leader was not worthy to be a marja (senior cleric worthy of emulation).
1110 GMT: The Latest on Montazeri’s Death. We have latest developments in a separate entry. One notable political move: the pro-Government newspaper Raja News is using Grand Ayatollah Montazeri’s passing to attack Hashemi Rafsanjani, claiming the Grand Ayatollah was working with the “gang” of Rafsanjani’s son Mehdi Hashemi.
1100 GMT: Karroubi Responds to Threat of Arrest. We’ve posted Mehdi Karroubi’s letter responding sharply to the threat of Iran’s head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, that he has enough evidence to arrest the cleric and other opposition leaders. Read the rest of this entry »
UPDATE 2225 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz has published what it claims is the circular issued by the Ministry of Islamic Culture and Guidance on coverage of Montazeri’s death. It states that reference should be made to Montazeri’s differences with Ayatollah Khomeini, but there should be no mention of his political career.
There are also stories that newspapers have been taken off printing presses to be altered. So far only Etelaat has a full obituary of Montazeri. so far.
1710 GMT: “Following the announcements made by a number of Grand Ayatollahs inviting public to mourn the departure of the great shia scholar and noble combatant, Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, in a joint statement Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi declared Monday to be a national mourning day and invited the grieving public to attend Grand Ayatollah Montazeri’s funeral which will be held (then).” Read the rest of this entry »
The demonstrations have gone on as planned today in Tehran. The threats to bring the Internet to a grinding halt in Tehran have been fruitless, as usual the Internet got the videos and evidence out.
Couple of points for discussion and analysis:
1) Is this only a Student Demonstration? The reports and news out so far from Tehran and other cities indicates protests, chants, and opposition activity almost entirely within university campuses. There appears to be little follow-up in the streets or little participation by ordinary people. We need more facts and evidence to prove this, but it appears as though 16 Azar did not turn into yet another day of widespread popular defiance of the regime, as seen during 13 Aban [4 November] or Quds Day [18 September].
Iran: So what happens on the day after 22 Bahman? And what does it all mean?
A special analysis from EA’s Mr Smith:
2200 GMT: Stopping the Mourners. Rouydad News carries a story we’ve been hearing on the Internet all evening: Iranian security forces 
UPDATE 2225 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz has published what it claims is 
Iran: Today is 16 Azar, National Students Day, and a major occasion for protest against the Ahmadinejad Government. It’s going to be a very busy day for EA, as we will be updating constantly in 
From Enduring America’s Mr Smith:
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