2200 GMT: And The Pace Accelerates. Hard to keep up tonight — Mehdi Karroubi’s Etemade Melli party has now made another move for 22 Bahman, following up the cleric’s declarations today with a list of proposals for reconciliation. We have posted them in a separate entry.
2100 GMT: An Extraordinary Offer? We have posted what we think might be a significant move by the “conservative opposition” to the President: an open letter to Mir Hossein Mousavi with the offer, “Back Khamenei and We Can Move Against Ahmadinejad”.
1950 GMT: Another Attack on Ahmadinejad’s Camp. Ayatollah Safi Golpaygani has effectively asked for the President’s Chief of Staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, to be put on trial. Once again, the challenge is circulated through the pro-Rafsanjani Ayande News.
I believe talk about applying pressure on the Iraqi government or taking hard measures against it no longer works. Such speech is out of date, because the government of Iraq knows its responsibilities and acts accordingly in a strong way.
7 p.m. According to CBS News, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has requested a meeting with President Obama.
The Neighborhood Today: An Economy Day, But Clouds over Afghanistan
Evening Update (11:25 p.m.): Move Along, Nothing to See Here. Genius/General David Petraeus, the head of US Central Command, and Frnech Defense Minister Herve Morin discussed Afghanistan today in a meeting in Paris. Of course, Petraeus told reporters afterwards, they did not talk about the issue of troop reinforcements: “That wasn’t part of the discussion today. What we were doing was discussing how we perceive the 20 countries in the central command area of responsibility.”
Which is sort of the equivalent of visiting the Pope and not mentioning Catholicism.
After meeting Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, Biden responded to a question about accession: “I’m in favor of Georgia’s continued independence and autonomy. That is a decision for Georgia to make.”
4:35 p.m. And It Went So Well in Baghdad. President Obama’s envoy to Afghanistan, Richard Holbrooke, has said that victory there will be “much tougher” than in Iraq. He told the Munich Security Conference, “”I have never seen anything like the mess we have inherited.”
6:30 p.m.: An Israeli Cabinet minister, Rafi Eitan, has forecast that a prisoner swap with Hamas could be completed before the next Israeli Government takes office: “There’s a strong probability that all comprehensive moves with Hamas … will happen during the current prime minister’s term, as from experience we know it takes around six weeks for them to put together a new government.”
On the Palestinian side, a source says, “There are positive signals that an announcement on a deal is near, unless Israel backs off at the last minute.”
Afternoon Update (4:30 p.m. GMT; 6:30 p.m. Israel/Palestine): Aid agencies are expressing frustration at the inability to get supplies into Gaza. United Nations official Chris Gunness said, “For us to move ahead with rehabilitation and repairs, we must get building materials into Gaza. Two hundred and twenty-one schools for 200,000 children only have 40 percent of their books because we can’t get paper and glue into Gaza.”
More than 21,000 homes are still destroyed or badly damaged.
7:50 a.m. We’re waiting for news out of Cairo, where a high-level Hamas delegation including Mahmoud az-Zahar is in talks that could move toward a proposed Israel-Gaza settlement. The main sticking point seems to be the opening and control of border crossings.
Diplomats have said that the working proposal is for an 18-month cease-fire, with a prisoner exchange (which presumably included kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit), and opening of at least two crossings. The deal would be “phased”, with crossings gradually opened as the cease-fire held and prisoner exchange proceeded.
7:35 a.m. The “Reconciliation” Battle Continues. In Turkey yesterday, Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas called for Fatah and Hamas to create a consensus government. He then rejected Hamas’ call for a new umbrella group to replace the Palestinian Liberation Organization.
Which, in effect, means that Abbas has thrown “reconciliation” back to Hamas: accept the PLO framework or there will be no consensus.
Morning Update (7:30 a.m. GMT; 9:30 a.m. Israel/Palestine): In a separate entry, we’ve had a look at US Vice President Joe Biden’s speech in Munich yesterday. With media attention focused on the “new tone” of the Obama Administration and specific issues such as Afghanistan, Russia, and Iran, almost no one noticed Biden’s passage on Israel, Gaza, and Palestine.
I come to Europe on behalf of a new administration, and an administration that’s determined to set a new tone not only in Washington, but in America’s relations around the world. That new tone is rooted in a strong bipartisanship to meet these common challenges. And we recognize that these challenges, the need to meet them, is not an opportunity — not a luxury, but it’s an absolute necessity. While every new beginning is a moment of hope, this moment — for America and the countries represented in this room — it is fraught with some considerable concern and peril.
The media chat this morning will be about Vice President Joe Biden’s speech to the Munich Security Conference yesterday. Our own reading is that the easy part was Biden’s signals of difference from the Bush Administration. The US would act “preventively, not pre-emptively” (no more Iraq 2003, at least over the pretext of weapons of mass destruction) and multilaterally. The emphasis will not be on magic capabilities like Missile Defense, but on a wider range of diplomatic, economic, and military instruments.
“America will not torture. We will uphold the rights of those we bring to justice,” Biden asserted, and he also said that the US would be constructive in finding solutions to climate change.
I’m not sure Scheffer appreciates that European leaders thinking the military-first initiative in Afghanistan, as a dubious if not losing cause, will drain the alliance rather than bolster it. German Chancellor Angela Merkel paid lip service to the military effort but did not commit to additional deployment, especially in southern and central Afghanistan, while French President Nicolas Sarkozy, for all his warm talk of security “from Vancouver to Vladivostok”, did not mention Afghanistan at all.
3 p.m. Hope in Somalia? The new President, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, has arrived in Mogadishu for the first time since his election. He will be holding talks with politicians, tribal elders, and Islamic resistance groups to try to establishing a functioning government.
1:40 p.m. Reason Number 452 why the Obama Plan for Iraq Withdrawal Should be Set Aside: Collapsing Oil Prices.
The latest effort from the US military to rationalise a long-term stay comes from Lieutenant General Frank Helmick, the commander of the training of Iraqi forces. Because of diminished revenues, Helmick says, “They are not going to be able to grow as fast as they want to grow.”
12:15 p.m. Biden’s speech is over. He finally got to the one to watch in next weeks, calling on NATO to support US efforts in Afghanistan.
12:05 p.m. Biden offers two important confirmations: “American will not torture” and “American will act aggressively against climate change”.
There are also signs of an emerging and important relationship: after Nicolas Sarkozy’s call this morning for a new security arrangement “from Vancouver to Vladivostok”, Biden has pointedly praised France’s new cooperative relationship with NATO.
And there’s a jab at Russia: “”We will not recognize any nation having a sphere of influence”. Specifically, US will not join Moscow in recognising the independence of South Ossetia.
Stuart Levey, U.S. Treasury Undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, stated that PEJAK is a branch of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is battling Turkey has been struggling. (Ali Yenidunya)
8:20 a.m. And there’s a separate entry on the continuing battle between President Obama and the military over the build-up of US troops in Afghanistan.
8:10 a.m. We’ve just posted a separate entry on a possible State Department initiative, using Twitter, to support engagement with Iran.
Morning Update (7:45 a.m. GMT; 2:45 a.m. Washington): The Kyrgyzstan Government is not backing down on its decision to close the US Manas airbase. President Kurmanbek Bakiyev said that “all due procedures” were being pursued for a speedy conclusion.
The Government is claiming that it receives too little payment for the base. In support of its case, and to ensure public support, it is also citing ecological concerns and highlighting the case of a Kyrgyz citizen killed by a US serviceman.
North Korea, offering a contrast to its hard-line rhetoric in recent days about relations with South Korea and its missile programme, has signalled to a former senior US diplomat that it is willing to discuss nuclear disarmament if its requests for aid are met.
2200 GMT: And The Pace Accelerates. Hard to keep up tonight — Mehdi Karroubi’s Etemade Melli party has now made another move for 22 Bahman, following up the cleric’s declarations today with a list of proposals for reconciliation. We have posted them in a separate entry.
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