Still travelling this morning, with academic duties in Liverpool. I’m learning from the discussion on gender issues in a separate entry, and I’m thinking through my impressions of the view from Washington of the Iran crisis, not only from the NIAC conference but from other conversations and observations.
I’ll try to write the analysis for Saturday, but my primary impression is of the disconnection between events inside Iran and how the best American analysts are approaching the situation. There can be a lengthy, engaging conversation about all the complexities of the post-election conflict — about the quest for legitimacy and about the demands for rights, about the role of students, youth, and labour, about “leadership” and “grassroots” — but all of that evaporates when the topic turns to “What Should the US Do?”
At that point, the two-clock metaphor takes it central place: the “nuclear clock” and the “democracy clock”. Except no one pays attention to the democracy clock; it’s all about the supposed ticking of the nuclear clock (even if, as one of the best US analysts noted, that clock is not real but illusory, given the limits on Iran’s nuclear progress). And so once more, “Iran” is reduced to the nuclear matter, with geopolitical buttresses such as Israel, Afghanistan, and Iraq, and “Iranians” become the Supreme Leader, Ahmadinejad, and those who may or may not negotiate a deal with Washington.
GALLO: Is Iran really trying to build a nuclear weapon?
CIRINCIONE: There is no doubt that the Iranian regime is moving to acquire the technologies that would allow it to build a nuclear weapon. We do not know if the regime has reached a decision to actually build a weapon, however.
1730 GMT: Political Prisoner Update. Lawyer Massoud Aghaee was freed last night on bail. (http://www.ilna.ir/newsText.aspx?ID=109018)
1710 GMT: The Iranian Parliament has launched its 4th enquiry into the Kahrizak Prison abuses. (http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/feb/20/1244)
1655 GMT: Economic Projections. Key member of Parliament Ahmad Tavakoli has warned of possible zero growth or contraction in the economy in 2010-11. (http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=13758)
1645 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi has declared that officials should serve the people and that if the people do not appear in public anymore, there will be great difficulties. (http://www.ilna.ir/newsText.aspx?ID=109009)
1640 GMT: Conservative Watch. Mohsen Rezaei, Presidential candidate and Secretary of the Expediency Coucil, has called on the Council to “apply corrections” to electoral laws. (http://www.ilna.ir/newsText.aspx?ID=109015)
1630 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Hashemi Rafsanjani, the head of the Expediency Council, has declared at a Council meetint that “exclusion, elimination, and insulting” of figures in the Iranian system is a poison to domestic affairs and should be stopped.
Rafsanjani, reaffirming his position, declared that 22 Bahman invited Iranians to unity, following the Supreme Leader.
(http://www.ilna.ir/newsText.aspx?ID=109080)
1620 GMT: Afternoon Economy Watch. Bus drivers have gathered in front of the Social Security building in Tehran to protest against working conditions. (http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=13750)
Iranian Labor News Agency warns that factories in many industrial sectors face closure. (http://www.ilna.ir/fullStory.aspx?ID=109010)
At least 1500 jobs have been lost in recent shutdowns. (http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/feb/19/1237)
Alireza Mahjoub, the head of a workers’ syndicate, has said the promise of 50 percent increase in oil prices in next year’s budget is “bizarre and inaccurate”. (http://www.ilna.ir/fullStory.aspx?ID=109089)
1120 GMT: This Month’s Twitter-Bash. This is almost as predictable as British weather: every few weeks, someone in the “thinking” press patches together faulty assumptions, a mis-understanding of social media, an Iran anecdote, and an “analyst” to claim that he/she has discovered: Twitter Had Nothing to Do With Post-Elections Events in Iran Whatsoever.
This month’s 15-second fame of Twitter-bashing is enjoyed by Mary Fitzgerald of The Irish Times. She is not as obnoxious or arrogant as Will Heaven, but the piece plumbs the same shallow waters of “analysis” that does no justice to social media or, more importantly, to those in Iran. (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/weekend/2010/0220/1224264860222.html)
1045 GMT: The Flag Flap (cont.). Well, I guess the issue of the magically changing colour of the Iranian flag — from red/white/green to red/white/blue — isn’t just a joke any longer.
At least not for the President’s office: it has issued a statement that “light reflection twisted the colour” of the flag at Ahmadinejad’s press conference this week. (http://bit.ly/crcDMW)
0905 GMT: Moscow’s Two-Faced Missiles. Russia, meanwhile, plays its own game with Iran. Having given Israel one message by holding up immediate delivery of S-300 missiles to Tehran, Moscow balanced with reassurance to Iran on Friday. Press TV quotes Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, “There is a contract to supply these systems to Iran, and we will fulfill it … Delays (with deliveries) are linked to technical problems with adjusting these systems.”
Iran has just sent a letter to the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, repeating its request for fuel to run a research reactor in Tehran that produces nuclear isotopes for medical purposes, according to U.S. and European officials.
They are readi
ng the letter as Iran’s latest, and perhaps final, rejection of an offer the United States and five other countries made last October to provide the fuel by taking low-enriched uranium out of Iran and enriching it for use in the research reactor…..
“We understand that Iran has recently sent a letter to the IAEA that simply repeats its request from last year for assistance to acquire fuel – a request the IAEA has responded appropriately to with its offer last October,” National Security Council spokesman Michael Hammer said.
“We see nothing new, and it would appear to reiterate Iran’s rejection of the IAEA’s proposal. Coupled with the IAEA’s latest report on Iran’s nuclear program, this reinforces why our concerns about Iran’s nuclear intentions are deepening.”
In other words, diplomatic stalemate. Tehran will continue to put forth its request for uranium through purchase or a swap inside Iran, while “the West” will insist on a swap in a third country. This could drag on for some time: both sides are getting public-relations value out of their positions.
Secretary of State Hilary Clinton and White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs have been on a roll since Friday defending Iran’s assertions that it is not pursuing a nuclear weapons program.
You heard right.
In response to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s recent claims that Iran had enriched uranium to the 20% level required for medical isotopes at the Natanz enrichment facility, Gibbs declared: “The Iranian nuclear program has undergone a series of problems throughout the year. We do not believe they have the capability to enrich to the degree to which they now say they are enriching.”
ABDERRAHIM FOUKARA, AL JAZEERA: Madam Secretary, if the criteria for judging U.S.-Muslim relations is the issue of Palestine, as millions of Arabs and Muslims seem to feel, they would say that those relations, taking that criterion into consideration, are not in very good shape right now. What say you to that?
SECRETARY CLINTON: Well, first, I am delighted to be part of this exciting interview and town hall at Al Jazeera. And thank you for participating.
The first thing I would say is that, obviously, our relations with people around the world is much broader than any one issue, even an issue as important as the future of the Palestinian people and the conflict between the Palestinians and Israel. I think it is a mistake to only look at the United States and our role in working with other countries through any single prism. But I accept the fact that this is a critical issue. It’s a critical issue to us.
2300 GMT: Urgent Correction on the Labour Front. Earlier today (1600 GMT) Tehran Bureau reported that the Tehran Bus Workers had called for civil disobedience over the case of jailed activist Mansur Osanloo. Tonight Iran Labour Report has issued an effective retraction of the story:
On February 12, a statement appeared on various Iranian websites, including Balatarin which is one of the largest Persian-speaking community websites in the world, in the form of a poster. The poster called for solidarity with the imprisoned leader of Tehran’s bus drivers union, Mansoor Osanloo, through acts of civil disobedience beginning on March 4 around Tehran’s Valiasr square. The statement purported to be an offcial statement of the union (formally known as the Syndicate of Vahed Company Workers of Tehran and Environs). Subsequently, in an article for the popular web journal Tehran Bureau, a staff member at Iran Labor Report wrote an analysis of the union statement as it had appeared on the various websites.
It now appears that the poster-statement was not authentic and that the union’s leadership had not issued the statement. Moreover, the provenance of the statement is still not clear. The union had apparently not published an official disclaimer earlier on due to the recent disuptions with internet use in Iran. Subsequent to this, the union requested that the inauthenticity of the statement be made public and that henceforth no reference would be made of it.
2145 GMT: Labour Rights. The joint statement of three Iranian unions — the Syndicate of Tehran Bus Workers, the Syndicate of Haft Tapeh Sugar Cane Company, and The Free Union of Workers in Iran — to the United Nations Human Rights Council has been posted:
[Workers'] most urgent and most basic demands at the present time are:
Speaking at a conference in Tel Aviv, Israel’s Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Tuesday that a continued stalemate in the peace process with the Palestinians poses a greater threat to Israel than an Iranian nuclear bomb. Having called on the Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas to sit on the negotiation table, Barak continued to praise Israel’s responsibilities and “progress” and stated that an an apartheid political entity as a result of the stalemate will be the biggest threat:
I am proud to be a member of a government that has taken upon itself the responsibility of addressing issues pertaining to the Road Map.
We regard the settlement blocs in Judea and Samaria as part of Israel in relation to any final status agreement.
We have a paramount interest in establishing defined borders between ourselves and the Palestinians, that will set the stage for two states for two peoples.
It must be understood that if between the Jordan [River] and the [Mediterranean Sea] there is only one political entity called ‘Israel’, it will by necessity either be not Jewish or not democratic, and we will turn into an apartheid state.
Saturday’s press briefing by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu:
MODERATOR: Good evening, and we welcome Secretary of State Clinton. We shall start with a few words, and then we’ll take two questions from each side. Prime Minister, please.
PRIME MINISTER NETANYAHU: It’s my pleasure to welcome Secretary of State of the United States Hillary Clinton to Jerusalem. Welcome, Hillary. You are a great friend and a great champion of peace. I think that we owe a vote of thanks to you, to George Mitchell, to your staffs, and of course, to President Obama and the entire Obama Administration for the tireless efforts to re-launch the peace process – the peace process between us and the Palestinians, and between us and the Arab world – following the President’s vision of a regional peace. Read the rest of this entry »
Still travelling this morning, with academic duties in Liverpool. I’m learning from the discussion on gender issues in a separate entry, and I’m thinking through my impressions of the view from Washington of the Iran crisis, not only from the NIAC conference but from other conversations and observations.
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