2200 GMT: The Dilemma. Paused when I read this statement from Trita Parsi: “Here is the central dilemma of Iranian policy: Iran’s greens need time, but Washington does not seem to think it can afford to wait.”

2150 GMT: Political Prisoner News. Reports that journalist Payman Aref has been released for ten days on a $100,000 bail.

2140 GMT: Today’s Super Spy Case. Here is one to watch: Italian authorities have rounded up five Iranians and two Italians (according to Associated Press, the BBC says two Iranians and five Italians), with two more Iranians being sought, on charges of sending arms to Iran in violation of the international embargo. Amongst those detained is the Rome correspondent of Iranian state television, Hamid Masouminejad.

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2045 GMT: Waging Soft War for the Regime. From Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty:

A controversial reporter with the ultraconservative Kayhan daily has been praised as Iran’s first soft-war hero.

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Tags: Abbas Salimi-Naeem, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi, Brazil, Celso Amorim, Fars News, Hamid Masouminejad, Hillary Clinton, International Atomic Energy Agenc, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Italy, Jafar Panahi, Kayhan, Mohammad Amin Valian, Mohammad Khatami, Mohammad Rasoulof, Mr Verde, NATO, Payam Fazlinejad, Payman Aref, Peyke Iran, Prophet Muhammad, Radio Free Europe, Radio Liberty, sanctions, Shirin Ebadi, Time Magazine, Trita Parsi

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2015 GMT: 13 Aban Does Not Exist. Homy Lafayette offers more detail on the Government’s order to state media to “refrain from disseminating any news, photo, or topic which can lead to tension in the society or breach public order” during the demonstrations on 13 Aban (4 November).

The article includes an English translation of the document, issued by Deputy Culture and Islamic Guidance Minister Alireza Malekian.

1810 GMT: Iran’s Nuclear Manoeuvre. If this story from Press TV is accurate, then Tehran is haggling over the details of third-party enrichment, rather than walking away from the deal.

The article re-quotes the source who spoke to Al Alam TV (see 1015 GMT), “Iran will announce its response to the proposal put forward by [International Atomic Energy Agency] Director-General [Mohamed] ElBaradei on Friday, October 30.” The official added that Iran did not want to send 80 percent of its uranium stock in a single shipment to Russia, as set out in the deal from the Vienna talks: “Iran as a uranium buyer knows best how much uranium, enriched to a level of 19.75 percent, it needs [for its medical research reactor]; based on this argument, it will raise certain issues with this proposal.”

In other words, Tehran will insist on a lower amount of uranium — currently, the deal is for 1.2 million out of 1.5 million tonnes — being sent to Russia in the first shipment. More would be delivered for enrichment as the medical reactor required new supplies.

The report is seconded by the head of Parliament’s Foreign Policy and National Security Commission, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, “Iran can send the scheduled amount in separate shipments so that its fuel supply [provided by foreigners] is guaranteed….Iran can send only a part of its stockpile … and then as it receives its 20 percent enriched fuel it will send the next portion.”

A word of caution on this interpretation: Boroujerdi is close to President Ahmadinejad and is putting the pro-deal view. It is unclear whether the dissenting voices such as Ali Larijani (and possibly, behind Larijani, the Supreme Leader) have come around to this position.

1750 GMT: Back from a teaching break to find that Rooz Online, following up a story prominent on the Internet this morning, has published details of an alleged Government order to censor and possibly shut out any news of mass demonstrations on 13 Aban (4 November).
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Tags: Al-Alam, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, Alireza Malekian, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Henganeh Shahidi, Homy Lafayette, Human Rights Activists in Iran, International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Maryam Rajavi, Mohammad el Baradei, Mujahedin-e-Khalq, National Council of Resistance of Iran, Payman Aref, Press TV, Thomas Erdbrink, Washington Post