1140 GMT: Checking in briefly from Holland, I find that economist and journalist Saeed Laylaz has been given a nine-year prison sentence, according to his lawyer. Reports yesterday indicated that Laylaz might receive a 15-year sentence.
0600 GMT: First, the resolution. Iranian state radio are reporting that the five British sailors, detained last week on a racing yacht that strayed into Iranian waters, will be released. So quiet diplomacy seems to have trumped any thoughts that an Iranian faction — let’s say, the Revolutionary Guard — might have had of using the incident to assert authority.
2010 GMT: Our Daily Contribution to the Khamenei Death Rumour Mill. The Supreme Leader’s Facebook site has the following message from Wednesday, “Today Noon; Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran attended a rite in respect of Imam Sadeq(A.S)”.
If true, this would disprove Tuesday’s Peiknet story, the original source of the current health rumors, that the Supreme Leader had been confined to his house by doctors.
Protest at the European level is not enough. The Netherlands should also use its own channels. There is an escalation of political oppression in Iran and we should react to that by using heavier diplomatic means….To prevent the eradication of any kind of opposition in Iran, the Netherlands must act now.
Human rights is one of Verhagen’s policy priorities, and he can be contacted in English or Dutch via Twitter.
1545 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has responded — big-time — to Government attempts to arrest him over his allegations of abuses of detainees. We’ve got the details in a separate entry.
We’ll have a full analysis tomorrow after EA staff can consult on today’s developments, but I am stunned. Before today, I had said that this trial would be an important signal: if the regime (read Ahmadinejad and Revolutionary Guard — the Supreme Leader’s position in all this is uncertain) had wanted compromise, then this would be a relatively low-profile occasion, having been delayed from last week; if it wanted confrontation, then it would put leading reformists like Saeed Hajjarian in the dock.
So when the regime played its first card today, prosecuting not only Hajjarian but all the leading reformist politicians and associates of former President Khatami, it threw down the challenge: We’re Going to Break You.
Then, however, the Ahmadinejad wing of the Government had a surprise. It is now declaring that it is time for Hashemi Rafsanjani to go into his box and, more than a month after the dramatic Friday prayers that challenged the President, be quiet. Frankly, the allegations against Rafsanjani family members were so stunning that I did not trust my translation. But there is no mistake: as one of my EA colleagues predicted in late July, the regime would get at the former President by attacking his family.
Rafsanjani, it appears, wanted to use Ramadan to get some space for his manoeuvres, delaying the Assembly of Experts meeting and making his carefully-worded statement at the Expediency Council on Saturday. That space is now gone: he will have to react to today’s events. As will, for that matter, the leaders of the Green movement: for all of Mehdi Karroubi’s work in elevating the abuse of detainees issue and Mir Hosssein Mousavi’s stumbling but still-present efforts for a Green Path of Hope, they now have to face a regime which wants to stop them through the punishment of the high-profile defendants who were in court today.
1700 GMT: More, Much More on that Assembly of Experts Meeting. The Executive Committee’s agenda appears to have been a delay in the next meeting of the Assembly, which was due to take place within the next 10-12 days, for a month because of Ramadan.
This rules out any quick intervention by the Assembly in the political crisis.
But the big question: who asked for the delay? Was it the head of the Committee, Hashemi Rafsanjani, to give himself time for his next moves? Or was it the other members — former head of judiciary Hashemi Shahroudi, Mohammad Yazdi, Prosecutor General Ghorban Ali Dorri Najafabadi, and Ahmad Khatami — all of whom are more supportive of President Ahmadinejad?
2025 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz, which has been very active today in portraying division within the Government, leaves another explosive story tonight. It claims that a member of Parliament from the “majority (conservative) faction” has “revealed that Hossein Fadaii, Tehran’s pro-Ahmadinejad MP and chairman of [the hardline pro-Ahmadinejad organisation] Isargaran was responsible for the crimes committed in Kahrizak prison [where some detainees were killed] and this has been proven for the Parliament”.
2005 GMT: Another ominous (and official) signal. The political director of the Revolutionary Guard, General Yudollah Javani, has reissued the threat to arrest opposition leaders. Having sent out the message in the Guard’s journal last week, Javani said yesterday that prosecution of Mir Hossein Mousavi would end opposition and the “blow that has been dealt to the prestige of the establishment.”
After criticising Mohammad Khatami, Javani identified his main target: “This flame of sedition cannot be put out unless through clarifying and trying the real elements [of the movement]. Mousavi should stand before the court to be enlightened.”
2000 GMT: All day there has been Twitter chatter about leaflets, circulated at Friday prayers in Tehran, calling for an attack on the main office of Etemade Melli, the party of Mehdi Karroubi, tomorrow at 4 p.m. local time.
Mowj-e-Sabz, the website of the Green movement, has picked up the story, saying that the leaflets were circulated by Ansar-e Hezbollah on the fringes of the prayer meeting. It notes websites and Facebook pages calling for Green activists to show up at the office. Read the rest of this entry »
1915 GMT: In a meeting that could offer significant clues to his political future, President Ahmadinejad
“will attend the [Parliament] session on Monday to exchange views and interact with lawmakers,” according to Principlist MP Vali Esmaeili.
1650 GMT: Fars News English says two more citizens of Western European countries have been arrested for “recording an illegal gathering in Vanak Square [in Tehran] using a hi-tech camera.” The pair allegedly also had “footage of some Israeli towns” from a 10-day visit to Israel.
1640 GMT: Etemade Melli, the newspaper of Mehdi Karroubi’s party, has summarised a letter written by Karroubi to Hashemi Rafsanjani “10 days ago”. Karroubi asked the former President to ensure an investigation was launched into the abuse of detainees, including allegations of rape of women and young boys.
1635 GMT: The Threat Against Mousavi. The move by a bloc in Parliament to convict Mir Hossein Mousavi of “leadership” of post-election rioting has been complemented by the head of the political office of the Revolutionary Guard, Yudollah Javani. Writing in the weekly Sobheh Sadegh, affiliated to the Guard, Javani declared, “If Mousavi, [Mehdi] Karoubi and [Mohammad] Khatami are main suspects behind the soft revolution in Iran, which they are, we expect the judiciary…to go after them, arrest them, put them on trial and punish them”.
2200 GMT: Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi, who earlier in the day denounced the appointment of First Vice President Esfandiari Rahim-Mashai, has criticised the “aggressive language” of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting: “We should urge everyone to use the language of friendship and compassion because the aggressive language used by IRIB will not help resolve any of the problems.”
2105 GMT: Stupidity and Sense. In the Christian Science Monitor, an opinion piece by a Joshua Gleis decides to forego any consideration of events in favour of making stuff up: “When Middle Eastern powers feel trapped, they tend to swing blindly at outside states.”. Therefore Iran has “the power to make things turn ugly fast”. It could “might decide to ratchet up the tension with Britain”, on the basis that it detained 15 Britain soldiers in March 2007 for crossing into Iranian waters. It “may decide to use its proxy force Hezbollah to carry out a deadly terrorist attack”. It could launch “a major terrorist attack, like the one it carried out in 1994 at the Buenos Aires Jewish community center”. It might kidnap the Statue of Liberty, holding it to ransom for the missing components for its Nuclear Bomb. (OK, the last one was mine, based on just as much evidence as Mr Gleis has for his “maybes”.)
A bit of a relief, therefore, to hear this from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, which substitutes a cold appreciation of the current situation for wild fantasies: “”The internal debates going on inside Iran have made it difficult, if not impossible, for them to pursue any diplomatic engagement, not just with us but anyone, like the P5+1 [permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany]. There is so much that is on hold.” Read the rest of this entry »
1945 GMT: During a relatively slow period in Iran news, have been following an interesting discussion at Anonymous Iran, sparked by Josh Shahryar’s “Green Brief”: “they are well written and structured, and even better, they report from a “grass-root” level so that I’m able to get a better “feel” and emotional picture of what really is happening. However, does the method used in gathering this information hold up to established journalistic standards?”
1900 GMT: The Significance of the Event, not the Message. Mir-Hossein Moussavi said Wednesday that protests would continue until all demonstrators are released.
That is distinctive not because of the statement, which is merely a reiteration of what Mousavi said to families of detainees on Monday, but because of the audience. Mousavi was speaking to journalists, a significant relaxation of the restrictions put on his movements and access to media by the Iranian Government in recent weeks.
1525 GMT: Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, responding to questions from a “concerned person”, has issued a fatwa regarding the inauguration of President Ahmadinejad
If the individual [claiming to be president] has attained his position illegitimately and fraudulently, the inauguration ceremonies and investment of power done by the supreme leader will are not sufficient to confer legitimacy [upon the aforementioned president] because [the act of] performing these ceremonies is not the main foundation upon which [presidential legitimacy is built upon] . These ceremonies can only invest power if the president has reached his position through an honest election process.
1140 GMT: Checking in briefly from Holland, I find that economist and journalist Saeed Laylaz has been given a nine-year prison sentence, according to his lawyer. Reports yesterday indicated that Laylaz might receive a 15-year sentence.
We’ll have a full analysis tomorrow after EA staff can consult on today’s developments, but I am stunned. Before today, I had said that this trial would be an important signal: if the regime (read Ahmadinejad and Revolutionary Guard — the Supreme Leader’s position in all this is uncertain) had wanted compromise, then this would be a relatively low-profile occasion, having been delayed from last week; if it wanted confrontation, then it would put leading reformists like Saeed Hajjarian in the dock.
1945 GMT: During a relatively slow period in Iran news, have been following 
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