2205 GMT: The Tajik Show? BBC Persian follows up on the curious story of the “release” of former Vice President Mohammad Reza Tajik from detention. Tajik appeared on the 22:30 programme on IRIB 2 saying that there was no election “fraud” and that “foreign and Zionist media” are riding the wave of the protests.
2145 GMT: Lawyer Forough Mirzaei and Mahin Fahimi, a member of “Mothers for Peace”, have been released from detention.
2100 GMT: And Analysing Rumour of Day (Week? Month?). We’ve posted a snap analysis considering the reasons for and implications of a Rafsanjani “ultimatum” to the Supreme Leader.
1955 GMT: How to Claim Victory. The Times of London slaps the headline, “Iran bows to sanctions pressure to allow inspectors”, on its summary of the Geneva talks. Hmm…. There’s nothing in the article to suggest an Iranian concession to a meaningful sanctions threat, and having been up-close-and-personal with Press TV tonight, trust me, the Iranians aren’t bowing. Posturing, even swaggering a bit, but not bowing.
1945 GMT: And Now Obama. The President has given his seal of approval to the US line: a “constructive start” but if Iran does not live up to its obligations, US will move to “increase pressure”. He signalled that Mohammed El Baradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, will soon visit Iran. “Hard work lies ahead.”
1935 GMT: The Deal? Meanwhile, the Western media continues to miss the announcement, enthusiastically proclaimed by Press TV, that officials from Iran and the “5+1″ powers will have technical talks on 18 September on “third-party enrichment”.
A further signal why this is important: “Russia is ready to further enrich Iran’s uranium stocks for use as fuel in a civilian research reactor, depending on approval from the United Nations, a person familiar with the matter said today.”
1920 GMT: Hold the Line. As the US Government prepares to consider its position after today’s talks, no doubt in a domestic environment with critics screeching “appeasement”, Hillary Clinton amplified the American statement (see 1753 GMT):
It was a productive day, but the proof of that has not yet come to fruition, so we’ll wait and continue to press our point of view and see what Iran decides to do….We want to see concrete actions and positive results. And I think that today’s meeting opened the door, but let’s see what happens.
1830 GMT: Another twist in the line of Foreign Minister Mottaki over the revelation of the second enrichment plant. Having put forward the case of four Iranian officials and scientists who have “disappeared” since 2007 (see 1350 GMT), Mottaki told the Council for Foreign Relations, “We think in Pittsburgh President Obama was misled based on wrong information and wrong analysis. The wrong analysis was provided by the British. Wrong information by certain terrorist groups.”
It appears that, even though this issue has been overtaken by today’s talks, Mottaki’s statement points to a wider strategy: blame the British for being “hard-line” while praising the US as “flexible” and willing to negotiate if they are not misled by their partners (see 1710 GMT).
1723 GMT: In contrast to the forceful moves by the Iranians, the US post-talk statement is, well, weak: “[Undersecretary Burns] addressed the need for Iran to take concrete and practical steps that are consistent with its international obligations and that will build international confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of it program.”
1910 GMT: Earlier this evening, I chatted with Fintan Dunne about the day’s events and their political significance. He’ll be posting the audio on his blog later, but a couple of points that stood out for me:
1. If a “victory” had to be declared, it went to the opposition challenge. Despite all the Government detentions, threats, and disruptions of communications, thousands (and, while exact numbers cannot be determined, it appears from reports and video footages to be thousands rather than hundreds) gathered at locations across Tehran. The weeks of pressure had not broken the protests.
There were “bonuses” for the opposition as well in a reduction in violence by security forces (for whatever reason), which bolstered confidence amongst demonstrators as the day developed, the lack of any indication that the protesters were sponsored by “foreign enemies”, and the first significant video footage in weeks to come out of Tehran. And, while one has to be cautious in generalising from the audio on that footage, there were bold chants of “Ya Hossein, Mir Hossein” and criticism of the Supreme Leader’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei.
2. That, however, is only part of the story. There are two halves to the challenge: the public protest and the manoeuvres of the political leadership. So far Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami have not followed up the marches with statements and indications of next steps.
3. And what of the political manoeuvres within the regime? Already attention moves from today to tomorrow. The issue at Friday prayers at the University of Tehran is not only who will be leading them but who will not. Has former President Hashemi Rafsanjani declined and does that mark, in addition to this week’s criticism of the government as “illegitimate” by a political party linked to him, his challenge to President Ahmadinejad and pressure for changes in the Iranian system?
1900 GMT: This, word for word, is Press TV English’s current summary of today’s demonstrations in their “News in Brief”, under the headline “No Major Protests in Tehran”: ”
A few hundred demonstrators have gathered on the sidewalks in the streets leading to Tehran University. Police used tear gas in one locality to disperse the crowd. Security has been tight in the streets of downtown Tehran Thursday but onlookers did gather to watch the demonstrations.
Writing for The Daily Beast, Reza Aslan, a fellow at the Center for Public Diplomacy at the University of Southern California, suggests:
The opium crisis in Afghanistan is not a drug enforcement problem, it is a national security issue: Licensing and regulating poppy cultivation would not only create stability and economic development, it could sap support for the Taliban and help win the war in Afghanistan.
2205 GMT: The Tajik Show? BBC Persian follows up on the curious story of the “release” of former Vice President Mohammad Reza Tajik from detention. Tajik appeared on the 22:30 programme on IRIB 2 saying that there was no election “fraud” and that “foreign and Zionist media” are riding the wave of the protests.
1955 GMT: How to Claim Victory. The Times of London slaps the headline, “Iran bows to sanctions pressure to allow inspectors”, 
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