11:50 p.m. When Hamas Isn’t Extreme Enough….Make of this what you will. The Israeli Defense Forces say today’s bombing that killed an Israeli soldier was carried out by “an extremist pro-Iranian group, which espouses a militant ideology that surpasses even Hamas’ positions in its opposition to Israel. The group receives direct support from Tehran, but is connected in various ways to Hamas as well.”
The same article states that a group called the “Jihad and Tawhid Brigades” — “an Islamist group affiliated by Al Qa’eda” — called Ramattan TV to claim responsibility for the attack.
So we have an attack supposedly carried out on Israel by “extreme Islamsts”-Al Qa’eda-Hamas-Tehran. The perfect terrorist storm or the perfect information campaign?
A quick search turns up reports that “Jiwad and Tawhid Brigades” were formerly led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a leader of the Iraq insurgency who was killed by US forces in June 2006.
11:40 p.m. Turkey continues to manoeuvre for a Middle Eastern re-alignment in which Hamas is a recognised political party. Foreign Minister Ali Babacan urged the Gazan leadership through Turkish newspapers, “”Hamas should make a decision. Do they want to be an armed organisation or a political movement?” At the same time, Babacan pointed noted Hamas’ support, “The party supported by Hamas got 44 per cent of the votes in the last elections. It is impossible to ignore this base.”
10:10 p.m. So We’re Hopeless at Diplomacy but….The European Union on Monday put itself firmly behind the US- and Israeli-led plan to block arms shipments to Gaza: “”The EU welcomes the commitment of the United States to contribute to stopping arms smuggling into Gaza and is prepared to identify ways to cooperate in such efforts.”
An internal EU paper proposed that European help could include training of security forces, provision of necessary specialised equipment and, a curious and unclear provision, “the creation of alternative incomes”.
10 p.m. President Bashir al-Assad, pressing his advantage from Syria’s position in the Gaza conflict, has said that there can be talks with Israel but only on Damascus’ terms, “If whoever is elected in Israel won’t be willing to pull out of the Golan Heights, there will be no negotiations.” He added:
We held talks with Israel over recent weeks, but Israel did not convey its commitment to peace talks, and it became clear that they only understand the language of force.
Assad took a no-cost shot at outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, “If Olmert were to come to me today and say that he was ready for peace, what could we tell him? We would tell him that he is a criminal and that we don’t talk to criminals.”
And the sharp-eyed might care to notice Assad’s choice of outlet for his statement: Hezbollah’s Al-Manar Television.
5:30 p.m. Thanks for joining us today. It’s a bit early for a Day 1 Assessment, as there may be developments in the next few hours while we have some downtime. As expected, Obama made the high-profile announcement of Guantanamo’s closure, although the impact was limited by the 12-month timeframe (a concession to the political and legal obstacles to shifting the detainees). He made the first symbolic step of US re-entry into the Israel-Palestine arena with calls to Ehud Olmert and Mahmoud Abbas — the expected appointment of George Mitchell as special envoy is still awaited. On the bureaucratic front, Hillary Clinton’s confirmation as Secretary of State came through.
The most significant event, however, was the National Security Council meeting with top military commanders over Afghanistan and Pakistan. And, as I type this, still no news — no spin, no leaks, no hints — of what steps will be confirmed. Similarly, the re-affirmation of a 16-month timetable for US combat troops from Iraq still hasn’t been made.
12:10 a.m. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has reported to the UN Security Council after his trip to Gaza and Israel, and he’s just a bit upset. Speaking about (or rather having his deputy speak, as Ban had lost his voice) the “several incidents of outrageous attacks against U.N. facilities,” Ban said, “I expect to receive a full explanation of each incident and that those responsible will be held accountable for their actions.”
This does not make up for the UN leadership’s impotence in this conflict — Ban admitted a “collective political failure” — but at least it shows that, once he realised how badly Israel had damaged his facilities and threatened his staff, Ban could put his de facto support of Tel Aviv into a critical context.
10:20 p.m. Trying to counter Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni’s courtship of European nations to join Israeli effort to isolate Hamas further, Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal has made his own appeal: “I tell European nations … three years of trying to eliminate Hamas is enough. It is time for you to deal with Hamas, which has gained legitimacy through struggle.”
Meshaal may have an opportunity. France, rather quietly, indicated Tuesday that it may be ready to talk to Hamas, even in advance of the organisation’s recognition of Israel.
Photo by Sameh Habeeb (see updates at 8:45 a.m. and 10:40 a.m.)
12:50 p.m. A steady as she goes day. Israeli officials kept quiet to judge the reaction their “unilateral cease-fire” — whether the spin that Israeli forces are withdrawing as a present to President Obama will become clear in 24 hours. Arab states chose a surface appearance of consensus over the political issues that are redefining their relations; whether that changes tomorrow will be up to Syria. Some Europeans, far too late, decided to make a push for a settlement.
And all eyes turn to Washington where a new President is inaugurated, with the question of what the US might do to re-define the Gaza equation. My own suspicion is that Obama and his advisors are playing catch-up, so don’t expect much beyond the surface naming of officials and maybe envoys to consider the American approach.
Good night and peace to all.
11:45 p.m. More Better Late than Never, Europe Style: European Foreign Ministers invite their Middle Eastern counterparts to Brussels for a bit of a chinwag later this week.
9:45 p.m. Further to Rafah Kid’s blog on Israeli use of white phosphorous (5:30 p.m.) and the revelations of the mass killing at Khuza’a (yesterday’s updates), The Guardian of London has posted a report, accompanied by a video of white phosphorous and of the effects on civilian victims.
8:40 p.m. Better Late than Never? After Europe’s ineffective performance at the start of the Gaza conflict, the European Union has tried to recover some influence. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier has proposed, after consultations with EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana and Czech Foreign Minister Karel Schwarzenberg, the current EU President, “humanitarian action, the prevention of illicit arms trafficking, re-opening crossing points into Gaza, help with reconstruction, and a resumption of the peace process”.
The significance of the move probably lies not in any potential for success but in the politics behind it: “Steinmeier wanted to ensure the United States alone did not lead diplomatic efforts in the region.”
8:25 p.m. Amnesty International has criticised Israeli deployment of white phosphorous weapons: “Such extensive use of this weapon in Gaza’s densely populated residential neighborhoods is inherently indiscriminate. Its repeated use in this manner, despite evidence of its indiscriminate effects and its toll on civilians, is a war crime.”
An Israeli military spokesman has replied, “”In response to the claims … relating to the use of phosphorus weapons, and in order to remove any ambiguity, an investigative team has been established in southern command to look into the issue.”
8:15 p.m. Ghassan al-Khatib, former Palestinian Minister of Planning says “no ways” for reconstruction aid or materials to get into Gaza under current conditions.
I think rebuilding of Gaza might be a way off.
5:30 p.m. Rafah Kid continues to offer essential reporting from Gaza: his latest entry describes the Israeli attacks, civilian casualties, and the situation in Gazan hospitals. His description of “chemical burns” and “an unextinguished incendiary device” points to the use of white phosphorous. If Palestinians and Israelis do not agree, then an “international mechanism” will have to be found to deliver the aid.
Rafah Kid also describes the killing of a local farmer by Israeli troops after the start of the cease-fire.
5:20 p.m. Update on the Kuwait summit: shadow Arab unity? Sheikh Hamad, the Qatari Prime Minister, issued what was in effect a holding statement, praising “a reconciliation led today by [Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah] with … the emir of Kuwait…. We left with an understanding that undoubtedly a new page had been turned that would benefit and strengthen the Arab position.”
It could well be that Saudi economic clout has brought all Arab countries onto the political fence, but it would be well worth keeping an eye on the next signals out of Syria.
5:15 p.m. Welcome to the Re-Occupation, however. Israeli officials say, “Israel intends to exert control over the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip following its 22-day offensive, and is seeking guarantees that no U.N. projects will benefit Hamas.”
Bottom line: no recognition of Hamas, no lifting of economic restrictions, including the “freeing” of border crossings.
5:10 p.m. Situation is little changed on military front, with no resumption of violence but no further developments on the Israeli withdrawal.
5 p.m. Have just finished set of media interviews on Obama inauguration with Birmingham radio stations and on Gaza with Iranian News Agency
2:35 p.m. Latest from the Kuwait Summit: Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas has made his plea to have some role in Gaza, though I am not sure he has thought through his suggestion of “simultaneous” Presidential and parliamentary elections: at this point, he and Fatah might be hard-pressed to win in sections of the West Bank and Gaza.
Abbas does have one vote, however: the hopeless-beyond-hapless United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has urged Arab leaders to support Abbas as head of a Palestinian unity government. And, behind the scenes, a “senior European official” has tried to support the plan by saying that “there will be no international assistance to rebuild Gaza’s infrastructure with Hamas in power”.
All of this appears somewhat desperate, an impression not lost on Syrian President Bashir al-Assad as he pressed his political advantage of support for Hamas. He has called for the declaration of Israel as “a terrorist state”.
Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, sits firmly on the fence. King Abdullah has tried to deflect the political issues by promising $1 billion in reconstruction assistance to Gaza — a declaration that only has salience if Israel, backed by the US and Europe, allows the aid. He has also declared that “one drop of Palestinian blood” is worth more than all the money in the world, which I am sure will comforting any bleeding Gazans who hear the statement.
2:25 p.m. Meanwhile, Turkey has bailed out of the Egyptian proposals. Following Hosni Mubarak’s announcement that Egypt would never accept international monitors on its side of the Egypt-Gaza border, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has withdrawn Turkey’s offer to participate in an international force.
2 p.m. Trying to recover his position, Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas has told the Arab economic summit at Kuwait: “What is required, if we were to agree and I hope we shall agree, is a national unity government that undertakes … lifting the (Israeli) blockade, opening the crossings, reconstruction and holding simultaneous presidential and legislative elections.”
Abbas’s position is tenuous because his term as President of the West Bank expired last week. The PA-controlled Ministry of Justice in Ramallah decided that Abbas’s term would be extended until 25 January to coincide with the end of the legislative term, but Hamas have announced their intentions to declare an “interim” President for the West Bank.
11:40 a.m. Hamas military spokesman Abu Obeida says the organisation will re-arm despite the Israeli agreement with the US and European countries to block shipments: “Do whatever you want. Manufacturing the holy weapons is our mission and we know how to acquire weapons,”
When I asked Mr Ban [UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon] if he would consider a UN war crimes tribunal in Gaza, he said this would not be for him to “determine”. But only a few journalists bothered to listen to him and his officials were quickly folding up the UN flag on the table.
Even in the darkness, we could see the piles of rubble: one had been the police station, destroyed in the heavy bombing on the first day of Israel’s offensive, killing 22 Hamas policemen; another pile accounted for the houses that had been destroyed around Muntasa, a favoured children’s play area and park which the Israelis say militants had used for firing rockets – residents deny the claim. The park is no more, a field of smashed masonry and concrete.
11:10 a.m. Israeli military says that it is withdrawing some reservists but regular units are holding their positions.
11:o5 a.m. “Utter devastation”: With no diplomatic or military developments, Al Jazeera and Press TV are giving extensive coverage to the scale of the destruction from the Israeli assault. Other news services in Britain, including CNN, have moved to other stories.
10:40 a.m. Sometimes Internet activism works….We updated two hours ago on the removal of photojournalist Sameh Habeeb’s album from the Google-owned Picasa website for “violation of Terms of Service”. Well, after a lot of cyber-chatter, the album has reappeared.
Unlike Hizbullah, [Hamas] cannot credibly claim to have fought bravely against the IDF. Its fighters, rather, melted away into the deepest recesses of civilian protection. And while the likes of Marzouk and his colleague Khaled Mashaal sounded consistently indomitable from the comfort and safety of the Syrian capital, the local Gaza leadership simply hid….
But will the people of Gaza, who chose Hamas as their leadership three years ago, internalize any of this?…. Will Gazans get the message? Or, confronted with the ruins all around them, will they instead redouble their hostility to Israel, forgive Hamas what was either cynicism or foolishness, and rededicate themselves to helping their elected Islamist leadership to eventually prevail over the Zionists?
8:45 a.m. More on photojournalist Sameh Habeeb, whose reports from Gaza have been a vital first-hand source during the conflict. Picasa has bravely removed his entire album of photographs because “the content…violates our Terms of Service”.
8:10 a.m. More background on the run-up to the conflict, this time from the humanitarian front. The UN’s chief humanitarian co-ordinator in Israel, Maxwell Gaylard, says that Tel Aviv that “deliberately blocked the United Nations from building up vital food supplies in Gaza that feed a million people daily”.
A spokesman for the Israeli Foreign Ministry replied that the claim is “unqualified bullshit”.
Morning update (8 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): Little military action overnight, as both Israel and Hamas settled into their political and military positions. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert says there will be a pullout “with highest possible speed” if “the cease-fire remains stable”. Hamas leaders are claiming victory in their resistance to the Israeli invasion.
Almost 100 bodies were pulled out of the Gazan rubble yesterday, including 23 from the site of the Zeitoun mass killing of members of the al-Samouni clan. Despite statements from survivors that “it was an intentional massacre”, the Israeli military continues to deny any responsibility: “”The [Israel Defense Forces] is not familiar with any order to civilians to enter any particular building. The IDF does not give those orders.”
With the Israeli destruction and bulldozing of more than 4000 buildings and houses, ten of thousands of Gazans are homeless. Ambulances and aid, including medical supplies, are still blocked at the Egypt-Gaza border, and only a few dozen wounded Gazans were brought into Egypt for treatment.
Late evening update (2 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): Relatively quiet on all fronts the last few hours. A hectic diplomatic day but a comparatively quiet military day, as Israeli troops battled with “at least 20 armed gunmen” Friday and five civilians were wounded when 15 rockets were fired into southern Israel.
Everyone is drawing breath, but it will pick up in several hours. Saturday is the day that Israel makes its move and puts all other actors on the spot, as the Cabinet declares a unilateral ceasefire. It is a giant snub to “world opinion”, saying that Tel Aviv doesn’t need an international agreement to get its political and military objectives. Gaza will still be blockaded, Israel will remain freedom of action to send military forces in whenever it wants, and Hamas will go unrecognised.
The responses of other countries and groups to this move will be critical. Is Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak really prepared to be tied at the hip to Israel, in pursuit of the overthrow of Hamas, even though it may damage Cairo’s position in the Arab world and even threaten internal instability? Will Saudi Arabia continue to stall on meaningful cease-fire efforts or, in light of growing internal concern with the Government position, will it shift towards other Gulf States who are demanding support of Hamas and unequivocal condemnation of Israel? Can Syria and Iran press their diplomatic initiative in forging a new bloc, and can Khaled Meshaall benefit?
And what in the world is Barack Obama doing? Did his people know of the Israeli plans, given Tzipi Livni’s presence in Washington today, and tacitly approve them? Or have they sat so far back that they are trailing behind these developments?
No answers, just a lot of questions. But my speculation is that tomorrow will send a re-alignment of loyalties and objectives that ensures the political battle over Gaza enters a new phase.
1 a.m. Israeli shell hits car carrying senior UN officials, wounding driver.
12:45 a.m. Clarification on the state of play over the Cairo proposals. Hamas says it has presented a “detailed vision” on implementation of a cease-fire, which Egypt will now relay to Israel. Hamas’ conditions include guarantees that Israel will lift the blockade on Gaza, but significantly Hamas is prepared to accept European and Turkish monitors of Gaza border “along with the Palestinian Authority’s security forces and those of the government in Gaza”. (In other words, Palestinian Authority can have a role as long as there are no Israeli monitors.)
Hamas sources say that if Israel accepts the Egyptian proposals, “We will be ready to start (the ceasefire) immediately.”
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