UPDATE 2255 GMT: A journalist at the press conference writes to assure us that the “former Karroubi aide” was NOT Ataollah Mohajerani. The journalist also says that the theme of the Khamenei-Ahmadinejad rift, which was the Tehran Bureau headline (but which we think is tangential in the political situation) was the big pitch of the aide both during the formal conference and afterwards in conversations.
All of this indicates that the attempted PR effort of the opposition has been rather botched, with almost no coverage and a failure to bring out the points that would resonate in the US such as the position on sanctions and the declared aims of the Green Movement.
UPDATE 0915 GMT: Barbara Slavin, one of Washington’s top journalists, adds, “A top aide to Mehdi Karroubi…said [President] Obama should send Nowruz [Iranian New Year] greetings this year. However, he argued that the message should focus on human rights and commemorate the scores of Iranians — such as Neda Agha Soltan — who have been killed since June by plainclothes thugs, prison torturers, and government executioners.”
More than four months after their last public-relations effort in the US, Iranian opposition leaders have made another move to influence American political circles. “A senior aide to opposition cleric Mehdi Karroubi” met journalists at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on Friday. The senior aide “worked with [Karroubi] for more than 25 years” but is now based outside Iran (while he is anonymous in the TB story, skilled Iran-watchers will identify him easily).
The headline claim in Tehran Bureau is that the aide revealed that “Iran’s supreme leader has cooled his support for president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad”. That, in fact, is not much of a story. The claim — at least as reported in the article — has no specific evidence but echoes a number of points (such as the incident over Ahmadinejad’s close ally Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai) that we have noted since last summer.
2200 GMT: The Dilemma. Paused when I read this statement from Trita Parsi: “Here is the central dilemma of Iranian policy: Iran’s greens need time, but Washington does not seem to think it can afford to wait.”
2150 GMT: Political Prisoner News. Reports that journalist Payman Aref has been released for ten days on a $100,000 bail.
2140 GMT: Today’s Super Spy Case. Here is one to watch: Italian authorities have rounded up five Iranians and two Italians (according to Associated Press, the BBC says two Iranians and five Italians), with two more Iranians being sought, on charges of sending arms to Iran in violation of the international embargo. Amongst those detained is the Rome correspondent of Iranian state television, Hamid Masouminejad.
2145 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz Suspends Publication. The editors and reporters of the Green Movement website Mowj-e-Sabz/Mowjcamp, a key source of information in the post-election crisis, have announced tonight that they are suspending the posting of articles.
The authors declare that this is the “end of a wave but the beginning of a path”, as they “leave the arena temporarily to other Green [activists]“. The announcement points to 22 Bahman (11 February), the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, as a key date for mobilisation.
Overall impression? The Mowj-e-Sabz activists, having been under constant regime pressure and having had their domain “seized” by hackers (the announcement claims they were Russians hired by the regime) this week, are taking a step back and drawing breath. The impression is of an opposition movement preparing to move more slowly but consistently in a long-haul battle.
2130 GMT: Paying Respects. Mir Hossein Mousavi and his wife, Zahra Rahnavard, have visited former Vice President and recently-released detainee Mohammad Ali Abtahi in his home.
2125 GMT: More than 900 Sharif University students have signed an open letter protesting the arrest of protesters on 16 Azar (7 December).
1920 GMT: Propaganda of the Day (2). Israeli officials are putting out the story that President Obama, on his trip to Beijing in November, “warned his Chinese counterpart that the United States would not be able to keep Israel from attacking Iranian nuclear installations for much longer”. This “part of the U.S. attempt to convince the Chinese to support strict sanctions on Tehran” matches up with leaks to the US media from a faction (probably including Dennis Ross of the National Security Council) in the Obama Administration — which we noted — that Israel would send the missiles into Iran if nothing was done about Tehran’s nuclear program.
The bigger story, however, lies beyond the spin. The Israeli officials added that the effect on Beijing was short-lived: “the Americans now understand that the Chinese agreed to join the condemnation announcement [at the International Atomic Energy Agency] only because Obama made a personal request to [Chinese leader Hu Jintao], not as part of a policy change”. They noted that China has “refused a Saudi-American initiative designed to end Chinese dependence on Iranian oil”.
If true, that means — for all the bluster of the pro-sanctions crowd in Washington in conjunction with the Israelis — any notion of economic punishment including the Chinese is a fantasy. Read the rest of this entry »
1945 GMT: Khatami on Moharram. Illustrating the analysis in Mr Azadi’s “Beginners Guide to Moharram”, former President Mohammad Khatami put out a message linking the commemoration of the third Imam, Hussein, with today’s challenge in Iran:
The Islamic society has one major goal and that is to reform the society contentiously; It could be either by reforming the government by establishing a suitable government or by reforming the way government rules and the methods it interacts with the society. Imam Hossein said that he did not fight to gain power but he did fight for reform in the Islamic society….Before the revolution the goal of the reform was to establish a new government but now that the Islamic Republic is established, reform must continue to strengthen it.
1900 GMT: So Is Raf Ready for the Fight? He’s sure talking like it. Following his advice to Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, “Get Help” (1730 GMT), he’s taken on other critics: “Some people make their reputation by slandering others and the appropriate response to such people is silence.”
Rafsanjani advised regime officials to strengthen “society’s trust” in the system by executing the provisions of the constitution and respecting peoples’ rights. No amount of Government restrictions could prevent the legitimate demands of the Iranian population: “With the dismantling of media monopolies, today’s generation are well-informed and they’ll only be more so in the future.” Read the rest of this entry »
Gary Sick, an official in the Ford, Carter, and Reagan Administrations and now a professor at Columbia University, was a key participant earlier this month in a Harvard University simulation of US-Iran relations. His conclusion, published in The National: “Is the United States really going to proceed with Iran on the basis of a sanctions policy that has consistently failed? One hopes that the Obama administration can demonstrate more imagination and agility than its Harvard namesakes.”
(David Ignatius also has a column on the event: “The simulated world of December 2010 looks ragged and dangerous. If the real players truly mean to contain Iran and stop it from getting the bomb, they need to avoid the snares that were so evident in the Harvard game.”):
Can the United States forge a mutually constructive relationship with Iran? Can a global superpower find a way to persuade a recalcitrant and paranoid regional power to enter the community of nations as a responsible participant?
For 30 years, both America and Iran have answered those questions with a resounding no. The United States has historically taken a coercive approach, which has only driven Iran further into petulant isolation.
1910 GMT: Top Reformist Back in Jail. Behzad Nabavi, a senior member of the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party, has gone back to Evin Prison after a 10-day temporary release. Nabavi, who is appealing a six-year jail sentence, refused to renounce political activity and was thus denied freedom until his case was resolved. He has been seriously ill and was in hospital during his release.
1740 GMT: Confirming the Disruption. It’s not surprising that the regime has moving to choke off Monday’s demonstrations by cutting off Internet services today. It does take me aback that “sources” in the regime have confirmed “the decision of the authorities” (to expose the activities of the Government? to intimidate the opposition?).
1710 GMT: Arresting the Mothers of Martyrs. Regular EA readers may recall that each Saturday mothers of those killed and detained in post-election conflict, joined by sympathisers, march in Tehran’s Laleh Park. We’ve been watching reports of clashes at today’s demonstration but have not waited for confirmation before posting. This is the latest from a reliable Iranian activist:
Before 5 p.m. today unmarked vans parked along side all streets around Laleh Park with 3-4 agents inside. Around Abnama Square there were police cars…and unmarked vans with tinted windows. Five or six younger women were arrested and taken by the unmarked vans to an undisclosed location. Fifteen or sixteen other women were arrested. Also three men were arrested & taken away.
1400 GMT: Disrupting 16 Azar. Activists report that the Internet, and services like Google Mail, are running very slowly inside Iran. Read the rest of this entry »
0645 GMT: A busy Wednesday, not only in political updates but in conversations with those who have a window into what is happening in Washington and Tehran. The politics and possibilities are so complex that days will be needed to work through the analysis but:
1. The chief problem for the Green movement vis-a-vis the US is not if there is an envoy — Mohajerani, Makhmalbaf, Sazegara — but its lack of a clear policy (how would it take power? what would it do if it held power? is there even a single Movement rather than movements?). Then again, does that matter? In other words, if the Green movement focuses on changing the situation inside Iran, giving the US Government (and everyone else) a different political scene to consider, can “Obama: You’re with them or you’re with us” be treated as a slogan rather than a pressing concern? Read the rest of this entry »
Yesterday I noticed an opinion piece in the Los Angeles Times by John Hannah, a former assistant to Vice President Dick Cheney. Hannah — notable in the Bush years for being Cheney’s fixer, running over other Government agencies to ensure the Vice President’s will was done on issues from “enhanced interrogation” to rendition to Iraq — is now declaring his concern for the Iranian people, who will accept “additional hardships” to remove their regime. Fortunately, whereas his boss Cheney pressed in 2007 for the “additional hardship” of bombing Iran, Hannah is now merely talking about a range of damaging economic sanctions.
Once my temperature cooled, I could not bring myself to acknowledging Hannah’s piece by responding to it. Fortunately, Maryam from Keeping the Change can, in this effective decimation of the rhetoric and reality of Hannah’s proposal. Hannah’s original words follow her comment:
John Hannah Want to “Cripple Iran to Save It”
We have to admit: John Hannah’s op-ed in the Los Angeles Times (below) takes a clever approach to the old-line heard from most U.S. neo-conservatives on the need to confront Iran with “harsh sanctions” and/or “military action”. Citing to an anonymous group of Iranian activists with which he purportedly met while in Europe, Hannah argues in his article that the Iranian Opposition movement wants, but cannot openly call for, “crippling sanctions” against Iran. A provocative point — should we believe him?
UPDATE 14 March: We’ve put the pieces and think we have the story of what happened at the press conference. More to come….
2145 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz Suspends Publication. The editors and reporters of the Green Movement website Mowj-e-Sabz/Mowjcamp, a key source of information in the post-election crisis, 
1945 GMT: Khatami on Moharram. Illustrating the analysis in Mr Azadi’s “Beginners Guide to Moharram”, former President Mohammad Khatami 
Gary Sick, an official in the Ford, Carter, and Reagan Administrations and now a professor at Columbia University, was a key participant earlier this month in a Harvard University simulation of US-Iran relations. His conclusion, 
1910 GMT: Top Reformist Back in Jail. Behzad Nabavi, a senior member of the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party, 
0645 GMT: A busy Wednesday, not only in political updates but in conversations with those who have a window into what is happening in Washington and Tehran. The politics and possibilities are so complex that days will be needed to work through the analysis but:
Yesterday I noticed 
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