0830 GMT: The Mousavi interview on Kalemeh has just come out. The takeaway line is “Spreading Awareness is the Goal of the Green Movement”, but there is far more here to be read and analysed.
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Whisper it softly, because the “Western” media are still sleeping, but politics is on the move again in Iran.
Kalemeh, the website of Mir Hossein Mousavi, has put out advance notice this morning that an interview with Mousavi will be coming out later today. No word on content, but this follows last weekend’s assurance from a Mousavi-Mehdi Karroubi meeting that they would soon be letting the Iranian people know of their plans and Karroubi’s mid-week interviews with his website and with an Italian newspaper.
Meanwhile, in Japan, Ali Larijani is making a big push from within the establishment. The signal of a deal for Japan to carry out “3rd party enrichment” on Iran’s uranium is a major international development, but its internal implications are just as significant. If Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has been in Syria, is on-board with the Larijani (and probably Larijani-Khamenei) manoeuvre, that points to a coordinated push to move n the nuclear issue and Iran’s regional position. However, if the President is out of the loop on the initiative, then Larijani is establishing his credential as the major “secular” player in Iranian politics.
After eight months, Moscow has found more space for its initiative, welcoming Hamas’s Khaled Meshal on Monday. Amidst the inability of the Obama Administration to make headway on the peace process, Kremlin has remembered and upheld one of the actors “forgotten” by Washington and the European Union.
On the one hand, this tells the Israelis that Russia’s relationship with Palestinian factions cannot be broken easily and, on the other hand, it sends a signal to Washington that Moscow’s can influence the course of the process in the region. Israeli officials could not summon Moscow’s Ambassador “on a lower chair” but had to send a letter of protest asking Moscow to clarify its intentions.
The Kremlin said that Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was the highest-level official Meshal would meet. Its ambassador assured Israel that the visit did not signal a swing in Moscow’s policy toward Hamas, and he said that Lavrov would reiterate its stance that the Islamist movement must abide by conditions to recognize Israel, give up violence, and honor past peace accords.
Meanwhile, Meshal declared:
I don’t see any prospects on the Palestinian, the Syrian or any other track of the Middle East process because the Israeli leadership is a leadership of war, aggression and occupation.
It’s enough that Moscow tells the world that Hamas is a movement of freedom fighters, not a terrorist group.
Hamas in Russia: On Monday, Hamas’s Khaled Meshal was in Moscow, a guest of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov despite protests by Israel. Meshal said there was “no prospect of peace because the Israeli leadership is a leadership of war” and added, “It’s enough that Moscow tells the world that Hamas is a movement of freedom fighters, not a terrorist group.”
Iran FM on Israel “Crazy Nation, Crazy People”: Following Ayatollah Khamenei ’s statement, “Today Palestine is the symbol of life, determination, faithfulness, diligence, and dignity,” Foreign Minister Manchour Mottaki jumped in: “Israel is a crazy nation run by crazy people. Therefore, we must prepare for the chance that Israel will do something crazy against everyone in the region: the Syrians, the Lebanese and the Palestinians.”
The talks are expected to begin on February 20, a senior Palestinian official told AFP on Monday. “These contacts will be aimed at creating a better climate and reaching an understanding on the borders of the Palestinian state, and they will begin on February 20. They will last three months, with the Americans negotiating directly with the two sides after determining a timetable and agreed-upon mechanisms for implementation,” the official said.
2150 GMT: Pep Talks. It is not just Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi talking up 22 Bahman. Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani has issued his second declaration in days, reiterating that “mohareb” (enemies of God) are those beating and injuring people bloodily, not peaceful protesters, and asserting that the military should not interfere in politics.
And Nasrullah Torabi, the prominent reformist member of Parliament, has reassured that 22 Bahman is a national holiday and people do not fear the warnings of hardliners.
2140 GMT: Rafsanjani’s Children and the Regime. Rah-e-Sabzhas an article considering the political and psychological battle around the threat of criminal charges against the children of Hashemi Rafsanjani.
2130 GMT: The Relay of Opposition. Radio Zamaneh has added details of Mehdi Karroubi’s denunciation of the Government and call to march on 22 Bahman (see 1100 GMT). Karroubi has called on fellow clerics to “come to the aid of the people…reach[ing out to the people before all these atrocities [of the Government] are attributed to Islam, Shiites and the clergy” and declared that Iranians on 11 February will try to “stop their promising achievements and goals from falling into oblivion, and demand them with fortitude and an aversion of physical and verbal violence”.
Karroubi asserted, “From one side petty flatterers and from another side worthless extremists have closed the arena onto our scholars, thinkers and learned.” In contrast, the common ground for groups in the Green Movement is their demand for “open elections, freedom of the press, unconditional release of all political prisoners, reform of governance and the judiciary as well as respecting citizens’ rights.”
Significantly, given that the “Western” media was distracted earlier today by the Iran rocket launch (see 1325 GMT), CNN’s website is now featuring the Karroubi statement.
2125 GMT: Blowing Smoke or Playing for Time? Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has said that death sentences for nine political prisoners have not been “finalised”. Doulatabadi’s statement adds to the confusion surrounding conflicting statements between the head of Iran’s judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, who said he would not be pushed into speeding up executions, and his deputy, Ebrahim Raeesi, who gave assurances that the nine would be killed.
2035 GMT: And Another “Monarchist” Death Sentence. Mehdi Eslamian has been condemned to execution on charges of involvement in a bombing in Shiraz and ties to a monarchist group.
2025 GMT: Another Arrest. Kaveh Ghasemi Kermanshahi, a leading human rights activist, member of the Central Council of the Human Rights Organization of Kurdistan, and journalist, has been detained. Read the rest of this entry »
In the aftermath of the Geneva talks on Iran’s nuclear programme, there are clear signals that Tehran wants some re-assurance of Russia’s support. Moscow may have backed away from its initial signal, after the revelation of the second enrichment plant, that it might accept tougher sanctions, but there is far more in play, as Iran tipped off in its high-profile references at Geneva to “regional issues”. Beyond the headlines on “missile defense”, positions from the Middle East to the Persian Gulf to the Caspian Basin are being contested.
These two articles from Iran Review— the first by Dr Hassan Behestipour on the Iran-Russia-US triangle and the second by Behzad Ahmadi Lafuraki on the threat of Russia’s accommodation with NATO — are far more than academic exercises in making the point:
Iran and Washington’s Game with Moscow Dr. Hassan Beheshtipour
After Obama was elected president in February 2009, relations between Russia and the United States somehow changed after two years that had passed since the Munich meeting. The new administration had given up past conservative policies and Obama paid a visit to Moscow in July 2009. In the new era, Washington ignores repression of Chechens by Russia, which in turn, helps the United States in Afghanistan.
The New York-based ProPublica has published the full text of Iran’s proposal submitted on Wednesday to the “5+1″ powers (US, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany).
After the 5+1 meeting, Washington and Moscow are at odds regarding Tehran’s proposal. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Thursday that the proposals contained “something to work with”.In contrast, U.S. State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley told reporters on the same day that the Iranian proposal is “not really responsive to our greatest concern, which is obviously Iran’s nuclear program.”
Full Text of Iranian Proposal:
In the Name of the Almighty
Cooperation for Peace, Justice, and Progress
Package of proposals by the Islamic Republic of Iran for Comprehensive and Constructive Negotiations
There is no doubt that our world is at the threshold of entering a new era. The difficult era characterized by domination of empires, predominance of military powers, dominance of organized and interrelated media networks and competitions on the basis of offensive capability and the power from conventional and non-conventional weapons is coming to an end. A new era characterized by cultural approach and rational thinking, and respect for the true godly essence of humankind is flourishing and blossoming. Many of the predicaments facing our world today, such as the unprecedented economic crisis, cultural and identity crisis, political and security dilemmas, and the mushrooming of terrorism, organized crimes and illicit drugs are the products of the fading era of domination of ungodly ways of thinking prevailing in global relations and the ominous legacy for present and future generations of humanity. Read the rest of this entry »
For many of us older than 35, it was a jaw-dropper in post-Cold War humour. Ohmygosh, Clinton just handed the erstwhile Soviet Commies the nuclear button! Go on, Sergei, push it. Push it with a smile and blow us to oblivion.
All right, it was meant to be a reassurance that Dr Strangelove and Mutual Assured Destruction is so yesterday. But the media, who must be younger than 35, were focused on some inadvertent humour. Read the rest of this entry »
Current Obamameter Reading: Settled with Distant Turbulence
7:15 p.m. What happened in today’s meeting between US envoy Richard Holbrooke and Afghan President Hamid Karzai?
No, really, what happened?
2:15 p.m. How to Miss a Story. Reuters declares, “Lavrov welcomes U.S. signals on missile shield”. Which is true, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, “It’s not too late [to discuss the American deployment in Eastern Europe. We could sit down at the negotiating table and evaluate the situation.”
The wider story, however, is Washington’s attempt to link discussions on missile defence to a changed Russian position on support for Iran’s nuclear programme. And Lavrov made no indication that Moscow would make such a connection.
8 a.m. GMT: Just in case you missed it late night, we’ve passed on the helpful warning in Human Events that “Iran is Taking Over America”.
Morning Update (7:15 a.m. GMT; 2:15 a.m. Washington): Two days after US envoy Richard Holbrooke left Pakistan and amidst public confirmation that the US is using bases within the country for its missile strikes (more on that later), news is coming in of an aerial attack which has killed 25 people in South Waziristan. The US military is claiming the dead were “Al Qa’eda-linked” militants.
If North Korea is genuinely prepared to completely and verifiably eliminate their nuclear weapons program, the Obama administration will be willing to normalize bilateral relations, replace the peninsula’s long-standing armistice agreements with a permanent peace treaty and assist in meeting the energy and other economic needs of the North Korean people.
Clinton then added the warning to Pyongyang “to avoid any provocative action or unhelpful rhetoric toward South Korea”.
URGENT UPDATE 1000 GMT: We’ve posted extracts from the interview in our latest updates.
In the aftermath of the Geneva talks on Iran’s nuclear programme, there are clear signals that Tehran wants some re-assurance of Russia’s support. Moscow may have backed away from its initial signal, after the revelation of the second enrichment plant, that it might accept tougher sanctions, but there is far more in play, as Iran tipped off in its high-profile references at Geneva to “regional issues”. Beyond the headlines on “missile defense”, positions from the Middle East to the Persian Gulf to the Caspian Basin are being contested.
The New York-based ProPublica has published 
The media are going ga-ga over an incident at yesterday’s 
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