Physically, my son Ali is feeling better. In the first days, his condition was terrible. Now we are worried about his mental state. The damage Ali suffered is a small example of all that is happening to the children of this nation. But the regime is already paying for this.
What happened on February 11?
The repression was violent, no doubt. There was an unprecedented conflict with the population. This time, the regime didn’t want to allow any gathering of protesters and it used all its strength; it gathered its forces from all the different governmental organs. They arrested our friends and family members, and they threatened the others. But their mobilization and organization didn’t stop us.
2205 GMT: The Tajik Show? BBC Persian follows up on the curious story of the “release” of former Vice President Mohammad Reza Tajik from detention. Tajik appeared on the 22:30 programme on IRIB 2 saying that there was no election “fraud” and that “foreign and Zionist media” are riding the wave of the protests.
2145 GMT: Lawyer Forough Mirzaei and Mahin Fahimi, a member of “Mothers for Peace”, have been released from detention.
2100 GMT: And Analysing Rumour of Day (Week? Month?). We’ve posted a snap analysis considering the reasons for and implications of a Rafsanjani “ultimatum” to the Supreme Leader.
Q: We are approaching the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution. How can the recollection and commemoration of those days benefit us today?
MOUSAVI: First and foremost, I want to congratulate all of our people on the 31st anniversary of our [victory in the] Revolution, particularly the families of our martyrs, our [war] veterans and prisoners of war [with Iraq].
Analyzing the Islamic revolution has not come to an end yet. There have been thousands of books and articles written about it and many still to come. It is interesting that the recent elections and the events following it have brought forth new critiques of the Revolution.
Bloggers and other foreign policy experts refuted many of the Leveretts’ specific points, especially their overestimation of government-sponsored protests and underestimation of opposition demonstrations. [EA's immediate reaction is in Wednesday's updates.] I have covered the numbers on my blog, but a very good second opinion is offered by Daniel Drezner in ForeignPolicy.com.
Drezner and Kevin Sullivan of Real Clear Politics set a wider challenge, however, when they argue that, beyond the Leveretts’ distortions, there are “good” analytical questions.
Those questions need a response, not necessarily because they are “good”, but because if they are not addressed, the Leveretts may get away with a blatant attempt at skewing facts to hammer in their argument that President Barack Obama should forget about the possibility of regime change in Iran. Read the rest of this entry »
On 9 December, we wrote a lengthy analysis, “Clerics and Rafsanjani Plan The ‘Third Way’ of Unity”, which laid out discussions between senior religious figures and the former President to put forth a proposal for reform of the Islamic Republic, manoeuvring between the Ahmadinejad Government and the Green movement. Sceptics argued that neither the clerics nor Rafsanjani wielded that much political influence — the words “spent forces” were used — but we still wondered whether the initiative would unsettle the regime.
We’ve gotten our answer in the last 48 hours, as our updates are tracking: the threats against Rafsanjani have reached a point just short of arresting his family members. At the same time, Rafsanjani’s 6 December speech in Mashhad, criticising the post-election behaviour of the Government and calling for unity and moderation, has popped up again on the website of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Kalemeh.
“I don’t see a difference between extremists of both sides (of the conflict) but a majority of our society,especially educated traditionalists prefer moderation.” Read the rest of this entry »
EA correspodent Mr Azadi offers an introduction to EA readers (and to me, as I confused Moharram and Ashura in a post I wrote last week) of the religious month of Moharram, which is likely to be marked by opposition protests:
Moharram and the message of Karbala
One of the significant events for Shia Islam is the first month of the Islamic calendar, Moharram, with its meanings and rituals. It was on the 10th day of Moharram, known as Ashura, that Hussain, the third Imam of Shiites, was killed at Karbala, now located in Iraq.
The killing of Hussain at Karbala, which took place in Moharram in the year 61 in the Islamic calendar (680 AD), is one of the seminal events in the development Read the rest of this entry »
EA correspondent Mr Smith explores the meaning behind yesterday’s protests, and looks ahead to the next wave of demonstrations:
In Iran’s never ending calendar of public events and commemorations, 16 Azar, or National Student’s Day, could hardly have passed without a serious confrontation erupting between the Ahmadinejad regime and the student population of Iran. Protests against Ahmadinejad on 7 December preceded by almost three years the electoral drama of June. In 2006, the president made an ill-fated trip to the Polytechnic, only to be shouted down by students chanting one of the symbolic slogans of today – Marg bar Diktator, or “Death to the Dictator”.
The students were therefore motivated and cohesive in their turn-out yesterday. Brazenly defying the heightened security atmosphere, which led to yet another round of arrests amongst activists in the past few weeks and the presence of heavy-handed security forces over all central Tehran yesterday, tens of thousands of students took control of prestigious campuses such as the Polytechnic, University of Tehran, Sharif and Ahmadinejad’s own alma mater, Science and Technology University. Indeed, their presence was so overwhelming that the security forces tactfully remained on the sidelines, conducting arrests just outside university perimeters and harrassing ordinary people who attempted to join the protestors within campuses. It was therefore a manifestation of the character and resilience of the opposition, which is now capable of organising spontaneous large scale demonstration through the mobilisation of only part of its forces (students in this case), and does not even consult with the leadership nor require them to be on the streets. In this sense, the potential of the Green wave of today is higher than the gigantic crowds that drove the Shah from power at the end of 1978, which crucially relied upon a highly organised and effectively clerical-secular leadership. Read the rest of this entry »
An interview in Italy’s Corriere della Sera with Mehdi Karroubi,first published in Italian in 22 February:
On 9 December, we wrote 
EA correspodent Mr Azadi offers an introduction to EA readers (and to me, as I confused Moharram and Ashura in a post I wrote last week) of the religious month of Moharram, which is likely to be marked by opposition protests:
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