The Latest from Iran (25 November): Larijani Talks Tough
Posted by Scott Lucas in Middle East & Iran
2030 GMT: El Baradei’s Clues. Want to know the state of the nuclear talks with Iran? The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad El Baradei, offers all the necessary hints in an interview with Reuters.
1. Iran’s “swap” proposal, exchanging 20% enriched uranium for Iranian 3.5% stock inside the country, is not acceptable. “They are ready to put material under IAEA control on an (Iranian) island in the Persian Gulf. But the whole idea as I explained to them, to defuse this crisis, is to take the material out of Iran. I do not think (Iran’s counter-proposal) will work as far as the West is concerned.”
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To back his line, El Baradei is playing up uncertainty over the state of Iran’s nuclear plans, pivoting on the controversy over the second enrichment plant at Fordoo: “You cannot really use it for civilian purposes. It’s too small to produce fuel for a civilian reactor.” So while the IAEA has “no indication that there are other undeclared facilities in Iran” or “any information that such facilities exist”, Fordoo’s existence raises questions about a wider Iranian programme — questions that El Baradei can use (or create) to push back the “swap” initiative.
Iranian state media has already reacted: “IAEA fails to address Iran nuclear swap concerns”. But this pretty much puts an end to Tehran’s offer: if El Baradei won’t back it, then it’s almost certain none of the “5+1″ powers will be offering any support.
2. But the talks are still very much alive, resting on a “third-party enrichment” arrangement. The plan would be one in which the IAEA would “take custody and control of the material. We’ve offered also to have the material in Turkey, a country which has the trust of all the parties…. I am open (to Iranian amendments) if they have any additional guarantees that do not involve keeping the material in Iran.”
3. So, for now, El Baradei does not see a move to aggressive sanctions: UN resolutions are mainly “expressions of frustration”.
Summary? Ball’s in your court, President Ahmadinejad (and Supreme Leader Khamenei). Don’t knock it back — take a modified “third-party enrichment” offer and everyone will be happy.
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