Then in the latter half of last year detailed studies of the drones began to appear. Peter Bergen and Katherine Tiedemann first looked at the growth in the number of drone strikes in Pakistan. Then they analyzed the casualties from drone attacks in an effort to determine how many civilians were being killed in the strikes. They concluded that of the 750 to 1050 killed by drones between 2006 and October 2009, one third were civilians. Chiming in the same month was journalist Jane Mayer who in a lengthy and thoughtful piece in The New Yorker examined the expansion of drone attacks by the Obama administration, including their effectiveness, and legality.
The statistics related to the drones are startling. Since Barack Obama took office, there have been 58 drone strikes in Pakistan. This is 32 more strikes than occurred in the entire second term of the Bush Administration and represents nearly 70 percent of all drone attacks that have occurred in Pakistan since 2004. Below are statistics drawn from an effort to map out the location of the strikes using Google Earth.
The Turkish newspaper Hurriyet reports that the “Heron crisis”, the unmanned aircraft that were supposed to be delivered by Israel to Turkey in May 2008, has been resolved. The first six Herons, out of a total of 10 to be shipped, will be delivered to Ankara in April, with a formal announcement likely duing Israel’s Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s visit to Ankara in January.
Initially, the delay in the deal was technical — the Israelis said that the Herons would climb to 30,000 feet, but the actual altitude was 22 thousand feet — but the more significant complication was the tension between the two countries after Israel’s offensive in the Gaza Strip last December.
Meanwhile, Muharrem Dortkasli, director-general of the Turkish Aerospace Industry stated that Israel Aerospace Industries and Elbit will pay a penalty of between $10 million and $15 million to retain the contract after the two-year delay in compleition.
On Sunday, Israel’s Industry, Trade and Labor Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer — the only Cabinet member to attend Turkey’s Republic Day reception — is flying to Ankara to secure an $183 million commercial deal. Before his departure, he said: “Turkey has a very special place in my heart and special relationship with Israel. As a democratic Muslim country, Turkey has the ability to bridge the gaps between us and our neighbors and help promote normalization and coexistence in the region.”
Meanwhile, Turkish Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul issued an ultimatum to Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) and Elbit Systems to fulfill the long-delayed supply of 10 unmanned aerial vehicles to the Turkish military within the next 50 days. He warned, ”If this letter does not bear fruit either, the tender may be canceled. But there is no cancellation at the moment.”
So the immediate deal is commercial links and an easing of Israel’s military restrictions on Turkey. However, Ben-Eliezer may have another issue on the agenda. Is Israel prepared to propose Turkey’s mediation between Damascus and Tel Aviv in return for a normalization of relationsrestoring the position from before the Gaza War? Ben-Eliezer said, “I hope my economic and political talks will make it possible to get the important relations between Israel and its Turkish strategic partner back on track. Turkey has special ties with Israel, and as a regional and democratic-Muslim power.”
And if so, is this the end of French adventurism in the Middle East or merely a tactical manoeuvre to decrease the tension between Ankara and Tel Aviv? Given that talks between Syria and Israel have been stuck due to the “no pre-condition” pre-condition and given that Turkey has been following a “zero-problem” policy with its neighbours, how sustainable is Ankara’s “honesty” towards Tel Aviv?
Here’s an international military manoeuvre to de-cipher: according to the Jerusalem Post, Israel is planning to expedite production of unmanned aerial vehicles for Russia.
There are two starting points for an analysis. In summer 2008, when Russia was at war with Georgia, Amos Gilad, the head of the Israeli Defense Ministry’s Diplomatic-Security Bureau, visited Moscow and took away the guarantee that Russia would not sell the S300 defensive missile system to Iran. And only last week, Russia announced that it had decided to halt the sale of advanced MIG-31 fighter jets to Syria.
Contrary to a long-standing assumption, it appears that Moscow has not had significant leverage over Tehran’s nuclear enrichment. This may be partly because of Iran halted its nuclear weapons design and weaponization activities in fall 2003, as the latest CIA report reiterates.
Thus, Russia has to find other bargaining chips in the Middle Eastern game. And it need not worry — even without a nuclear weapons programme, Iran has enough conventional weapons initiatives for either pretext or genuine fear, and there are other countries such as Syria who will have to be kept in their proper military place.