Israel FM Lieberman “Ambiguity” on Dubai Assassination: Israel’s Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman did not deny Israeli involvement in the killing of Hamas’s Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in a Dubai hotel but said that Israel has a “policy of ambiguity” on intelligence matters and there was no proof Mossad was behind the assassination. Lieberman said, “The Mossad was not behind the assassination of Mahmoud el- Mabhouh, but rather [it is] a foreign organization that is trying to frame Israel.”
Netanyahu “No Iran War”: Following a meeting with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — in response to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s accusation that Israel was “planning a spring or summer war” — said, “Israel is not planning any sort of war.”
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is leaving for Russia on Sunday. At his weekly cabinet meeting, he said that he will push Moscow, “an important power and ally”, for crippling sanctions on Iran during his meetings with President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. “If Russia agrees to sanctions, China will find itself alone and may be forced to line up with the Western powers,” an Israeli official said.
Undoubtedly Netanyahu will ask Moscow to freeze its supply of advanced S-300 surface-to-air missiles to Iran and to give full support at the UN Security Council to sanctions. Yet that raises a question from the other side. Given that Russia is involved not only in Israel’s Palestinian question but also in Israel’s “Hamas problem”, on which case is Tel Aviv ready to give concessions?
Then add Iran to the triangle. What might Moscow seek to gain in Middle East at the expense of loosening its relationship with Iran, a relationship which once could have been its spearhead in the region? Will Moscow run the risk of losing a “nuclear-going” Iran or limit its response by not accepting Netanyahu’s demands?
Clinton Talking Iran Sanctions in Gulf: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visits Saudi Arabia and the Qatar this week. U.S. officials hinted Saturday that one way Saudi Arabia could help diplomatically over the Iran issu ewould be to offer guarantees that it would meet China’s oil requirements.
Senator Kerry Warns Arabs: Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry said at a U.S.-Islamic World Forum in Doha, Qatar, on Saturday that “peace may never come if it is now realized now“:
Last week, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayip Erdogan made a two-day trip to Moscow, with energy, trade and the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute high on the agenda. Erdogan and senior members of his government, in talks with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitri Medvedev, launched the process for an agreement on visa-free travel for the citizens of both countries and took important steps on the use of the Turkish lira, and the Russian ruble in bilateral trade. Most significantly, the two sides signed a declaration of cooperation to construct Turkey’s first nuclear power plant.
The energy issue is the rucial factor in the economic and trading relations of Turkey and Russia. Turkey is highly dependent on Russian gas but now also wants to become a major energy corridor, transporting that gas to the Middle East. This South Stream rivals the U.S. and EU-backed Nabucco pipeline plan, even though Ankara also backs Nabucco and says the two projects should complement each other.
Apparently a former Vice President spoke last night and said he kept the world safe and the current President doesn’t. Sort of like my Dad saying each time we meet, “You know in my day 1) there was no crime 2) kids knew their place 3) music was much better.”
UPDATE 15 October 0835 GMT: Finally! An unnamed journalist picks up on the third-party enrichment story at yesterday’s State Department briefing by Philip Crowley:
QUESTION: The meeting coming up, the technical talks in Vienna about the low-enriched uranium – who is the U.S. sending, and how far do you expect to get in those meetings? What’s the sort of agenda and hopes for an outcome?
MR. CROWLEY: Well, it’s – we haven’t decided. Those arrangements are still being worked as to what the representation will be….These are technical talks, really, to work through the practical issues of how to ship the fuel out of Iran, and then provide the fuel that – for this research reactor….
QUESTION: But your understanding is that the Iranians are going forward with this, you know, a hundred percent. [Are the talks] actually just about implementing it right now, or is [the meeting] about in theory how it would work?
MR. CROWLEY: …This is a confidence-building measure. There is the research reactor. It’s running out of fuel. And we think there’s a mechanism that can be put in place so that we can see that the shipment out of some of the existing Iranian stocks and then fuel for this particular reactor provided. I mean, it really is about working through the technical aspects of this. And…we believe that the meeting will go forward on October 19, and we’re working through the appropriate representation.
UPDATE 15 October 0730 GMT: The Hole in the Middle. Michael Slackman of The New York Times has a good but ultimately curious article this morning. In “Some See Iran as Ready for Nuclear Deal”, he quotes analysts such as Trita Parsi, Flynt Leverett, and Juan Cole, as well as past statements from top Iran officials, to build his case.
The curiosity? Slackman never mentions the “third-party enrichment” proposal that proves his point.
UPDATE 1855 GMT: If you’re clued up on the real story, then this statement by Vladimir Putin, former President and now Prime Minister of Russia, makes sense: “There is no need to frighten the Iranians. There is a need to reach agreements; there is a need to search for compromises.” Stay the course on the ongoing, quieter discussions on third-party enrichment and Iran’s second enrichment facility near Qom.
If you’re not clued, then you’re the ideal receptive audience for Press TV’s spin on Putin’s statement — The Russians Are With Us Against the “West” — “Putin Warns against Intimidation”.
The story so far: last weekend we picked up on a scoop by Glenn Kessler of The Washington Post that, for four months, the US had been developing a plan for “third-party enrichment” by Russia of 80 percent of Iran’s stock of low-enriched uranium. The processed uranium, now at 20% enrichment, would be used in Iran’s medical research facilities. The proposal was presented to Iran before the Geneva talks at the start of October, and Tehran has accepted it as a basis for discussions.
2200 GMT: Ahmadinejad appears to be trying to give Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai greater influence by giving him responsibilities traditionally reserved for the vice president.
2110 GMT: Closing the Evening with an Urgent Question. Last night we reported the breaking news that Hashemi Rafsanjani would be leading Friday prayers in Tehran on 14 August. Tonight there is doubt. Seyed Reza Taghavi, the head of the committee responsible for Friday prayers, has stated, “The presence of Ayatollah Hashemi is not yet clear and depends upon his health and the queue before him.”
2045 GMT: Ayatollah Dorri-Najafabadi, the chief prosecutor of Iran, has stated that the recent televised confessions, “although collected legally, will have little effect upon the outcome of the court and sentencing”. Dorri-Najafabadi also claimed, “[Detained politician Mostafa] Tajzadeh is in good health”
The chief prosecutor made clear that he would have preferred to have court proceedings behind closed doors. ”If we were consulted about having these open trials, we may have had a different opinion.”
2025 GMT: Ahmadinejad’s Payoff for Moscow? The Russian mobile phone operating company Megafone, which is alleged to belong to the wife of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, has reportedly obtained a license to open a branch in Tehran. Initially the UAE company Etisalat won the auction to be the third mobile operator in Tehran but then suddenly the Kuwaiti company Zain was put in its place. Now it is alleged that Megafone is going to be the operator.
This news is entirely unconnected, of course, to the fact that Russia was the first country to give significant recognition of Ahmadinejad’s “re-election”, receiving him at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit a few days after the 12 June vote.
1950 GMT: We’re just adding footage of a “Death to the Dictator” protest in Vanak Square, Tehran, this evening.
1940 GMT: The Facebook pages of Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, and Mousavi’s wife, Zahra Rahnavard, still cannot be accessed. A source close to Enduring America believes attacks on Facebook pages “almost confirmed” as coming from Iran and attacks on Twitter “probably” as well. Read the rest of this entry »
As well as meeting Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, President Obama is making some high-profile speeches in Moscow. This is his latest, delivered at the New Economic School, an institution founded a year after the break-up of the Soviet Union:
OBAMA: Good morning. It is an honor for me to join you at the New Economic School. Michelle and I are so pleased to be in Moscow, and as someone who was born in Hawaii, I’m glad to be here in July instead of January.
I know that NES is a young school, but I speak to you today with deep respect for Russia’s timeless heritage. Russian writers have helped us understand the complexity of the human experience, and recognize eternal truths. Your painters, composers, and dancers have introduced us to new forms of beauty. Your scientists have cured disease, sought new frontiers of progress, and helped take us to space. Read the rest of this entry »
Israel FM Lieberman “Ambiguity” on Dubai Assassination: Israel’s Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman did not deny Israeli involvement in the killing of Hamas’s Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in a Dubai hotel but said that Israel has a “policy of ambiguity” on intelligence matters and there was no proof Mossad was behind the assassination. Lieberman said, “The Mossad was not behind the assassination of Mahmoud el- Mabhouh, but rather [it is] a foreign organization that is trying to frame Israel.”
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